فهرست مطالب hosein mohammadi

The aim of the current research is to present a model for the implementation of new fintechs in the banking industry (peer-to-peer lending). The research method is applicable in terms of purpose, mixed (qualitative-quantitative) in terms of implementation, and survey in terms of nature and method. The statistical population of the research was the managers, supervisors and employees of the financial and technological fields of banks, experts and specialists in the fintech field in the country; and according to the principles and rules of the unlimited population, 384 people were selected as a sample. Data collection was done by semi-structured interviews in the qualitative part, and by the researcher-made questionnaire in the quantitative part. Coding and MAXQDA software were used in qualitative part data analysis, and SPSS and AMOS software were used in quantitative part. The results of the qualitative data analysis of the research were categorized as follows: In this regard, the extracted categories were categorized as follows: Causal conditions: organizational learning, system attitude, and information technology. Key conditions: communication capital, human capital, and structural capital. Governing platform: partner banks, external theorists, government, and environmental conditions. Intervening conditions: obstacles and challenges including organizational factors, community conditions, individual factors, and lack of education and research. Strategies: policy making, strategic plan, and employee satisfaction and loyalty. Consequence: knowledge-based policy making, knowledge management, innovation, creativity and idea, and knowledge-based organization. The results of the quantitative part showed that the fit indices of the model indicate the confirmation of the model at the confidence level of 99%.

Today, the businesses of the poultry industry are facing many challenges, because this industry has to manage a number of unique processes, methods and risks at the same time. Therefore, identifying the business risks of poultry production units can play an effective role in reducing the level of vulnerability of these businesses. Considering the need to increase the productivity of the poultry industry, one of the basic solutions is to identify the risk and measure the existing risks of this industry. Risk identification and quantification can reduce costs for industry stakeholders, and risk reduction leads to better production planning. In this regard, this study identifies the business risks of poultry production units in Khorasan Razavi province.

This study is applied as purpose and descriptive survey in terms of nature and method. This research is based on mixed research, qualitatively and quantitatively. The statistical population is poultry industry experts, 18 of whom were investigated by snowball sampling method as the research sample. This study proposes a new Delphi technique that uses the features of traditional Delphi techniques and the Fuzzy Delphi method. The proposed new Delphi technique is based on the integration of pentagonal fuzzy sets and the Delphi technique.

The results of the modified pentagonal Fuzzy Delphi method showed that five main risks and 36 secondary risks out of 58 identified risks are part of the business risks of poultry production units. Identified business risks of poultry production units, in order of priority, include inputs price fluctuations, command pricing, exchange rate fluctuations, sanctions, chicken price fluctuations, delay in accessing inputs, fluctuations in the purchase price of day-old chickens, fluctuations in drug and vaccine prices, imported inputs, lack of government support in the matter of production, fluctuations in subsidies to inputs, lack of animal inputs, import of poultry products, Promulgation of various instructions, poultry diseases, lack of liquidity of poultry farmers, bankruptcy of poultry farmers, fluctuations in current costs, losses, lack of medicine and vaccines, lack of expansion of poultry business, lack of confidence of poultry farmers in the government, fluctuations in profitability, investment, seasonal fluctuations in egg demand, dependence of poultry farmers on Special suppliers, supply of day-old chicks, lack of energy, exclusivity of the livestock and poultry feed supply system, egg price fluctuations, seasonal fluctuations in chicken production, seasonal fluctuations in chicken demand, weakness in providing working capital facilities to poultry farmers, lack of skilled human resources in time Appropriate, lack of technical knowledge of advanced technologies and lack of variety of poultry food ingredients.

The business of poultry production units is facing various challenges and risks, and due to the many risks of this industry, production in this industry is facing problems and it is not possible to plan for it, and production will be disrupted in the future. Therefore, in this research, an effort was made to fully identify the business risks of poultry production units. In order to complete and finalize the business risks of poultry production units, the pentagonal Fuzzy Delphi method was used. In this regard, a questionnaire was prepared that included two parts. The first part is about the survey and information about the background of the respondents, and the second part includes the ranking of 54 identified risks. Fuzzy Delphi method in this study was done in two rounds and based on the opinion of experts, 4 more risks were added to the total of 54 risks, and finally 58 risks were analyzed using Fuzzy Delphi method. In Fuzzy Delphi, the selection of risk components among all the components that were identified in the research literature was based on the accepted threshold criterion. The results of the second round of modified pentagonal Fuzzy Delphi showed that there are 36 important sub-risks in the sector of production, market, financial, institutional and personal business risks of poultry production units. Considering the price fluctuations of livestock inputs and exchange rate fluctuations, it is suggested to allocate currency and control it by government policies in order to reduce mentioned fluctuations, or move towards diversifying poultry feed ingredients and formulating new poultry feed rations. Also, in order to avoid fluctuations in the price of chicken or eggs, it is suggested to make the distribution network smarter to prevent these fluctuations. In the poultry market, it is better to set a fair price for each kilogram of chicken according to the production costs of poultry farmers, or not to interfere with the government in the market and allow the government to set the price based on the supply and demand mechanism.

The price of red meat has grown significantly in recent years, which has reduced the welfare of the consumers of this product, and its consumption has decreased greatly in the low-income groups of the society. The presence of many challenges in the beef value chain and the presence of many activists with different goals in this chain have made it complicated and difficult to analyze this chain. One of the best methods for designing complex systems, determining policies and solving their problems is system dynamics modeling.

In this study, after identifying the actors in the value chain, the relationships among the elements of this system were expressed in the form of causal loop diagram. Then, the types of the variables in the system were determined including stock, rate, auxiliary and parameters and the stock-flow diagram of this value chain was drawn and then was formulated. After validating the designed model using the behavior reproduction test, the current state of this value chain has been simulated.

In this basic model, by creating scenarios on key variables such as the exchange rate and the import tariff rate of inputs and red meat, it is possible to examine the impact of various government support policies on the price of beef and other important variables of this chain.SuggestionsTherefore, such a model that shows the dynamics of the relationships between the factors involved in the red meat value chain can be used as an operational dashboard for decision making for policy makers and planners of the country's agricultural sector.

The increasing concern of consumers about the quality and safety of agricultural products all over the world has caused organic products to become one of the most popular options for healthy. The increasing trend and consumption of organic agricultural products has led to the increasing growth of the market of these products in the last two decades. Due to the importance of entering and gaining a share of this growing market, this study investigates the factors affecting the international organic products market entry and determines the appropriate strategy for entering it using structural equation modeling. The data of this study was obtained by collecting 90 questionnaires from producers of organic saffron, pistachio, and raisin products in the year 2021 with available sampling method in Khorasan Razavi province. The obtained results indicate that the variables of risk and motivation to enter the international market directly and the production and marketing ownership indirectly and through influencing the motivation to enter the international market, influence the international market entry strategy. Based on this, the appropriate strategy for entering the international market of organic products, indirect, cooperative and non-attendance strategies such as indirect export, contract production and joint investment was obtained. Therefore, it is suggested that the government should remove or reduce the risks caused by sanctions and obstacles to enter the market for the direct presence of organic product producers in international markets.

The role of climate in the study of urban environments is important in terms of its impact on climate change in urban environments. The heat island is one of the hazards that has recently affected the environmental conditions of cities due to urban development.

For this purpose, Landsat ETM satellite images were used during the period 1990-2019. In this regard, LST and NDVI indices, urban coverage and land use were used. Geographical area of research The city of Isfahan has been considered in this study. 

Results and discussion: 

The results showed that the high temperature is mostly in the central core of Isfahan and the surrounding city is covered by the middle temperature class. Most of the low temperature class also includes agricultural use due to high humidity. Parks and green spaces in the city are among the middle temperature classes due to the impact of high and very high temperature areas around them.

In general, it can be said that in the last three periods, the highest area has been related to the average temperature, and this trend will continue in the coming years. Due to the reduction of agricultural land use and the physical expansion of the city, the area of heat islands in the upper range has increased. On the one hand, the reasons for the increase in high temperatures are the increase in population, the increase in industries and the number of cars in the city, the multiplication of traffic volumes, the increase in asphalt levels and urban and interurban roads, and the increase in wasteland due to grazing. He pointed to overcrowding and damage to pastures, as well as clearing of green lands and deforestation.

In postmodern novels, the concept of identity does not enjoy any coherence and stability existing in pre-modern novels. Indeed, such a concept is fragmented, disjointed and unstable. Narrative in postmodern stories is thus unreliable, suspicious and contradictory due to the fragmented and fluid identities of the characters. One of the most prominent and prolific writers in the contemporary era is Mohammad Reza Kaateb, some of whose novels are similar to postmodernist elements. In so doing, the concept of identity and narrative is disclosed in this study. In this research, in a descriptive and analytical way, six novels of the author named "Aftab Prast-e Nazanin (Lovely Chameleon)", "Balzans (The Fliers )", "Bi Tarsi (Fearless)", " Pasti (Dowmhill)", " Ram Konandeh (The Domesticator)" and "Hiss" from the point of view of postmodernist components. Identity, character and narration have been investigated. The findings show that most of the characters in the addressed novels are of indeterminate, fragmented identities. Wandering, displacement and overlapping of characters with each other, inability in self-recognition, is evidence to their disjointed identities. Fragmented and contradictory narratives in characters and adventures are one main feature that marked the writer's novels with uncertainty.The post-modernist components of ontological doubt, uncertainty and fragmentation and contradiction in identity and narrative are very impressive in such novels as Lovely Chameleon, Downhill, The Domesticator and Hiss. In contrast, The Fliers and Fearless have used such elements to a milder extent.

Health care workers (HCWs) are at the frontline of the fight against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Long COVID is defined as “the persistence of some symptoms of COVID-19, more than 4 weeks after the initial infection.” The aim of the present study was to investigate the prevalence of long COVID status among HCWs in the largest hospital complex of Iran.  

In this cross-sectional study, all patients with COVID-19 who had taken sick leave were included in the study (n = 445).  Data regarding sick leave characteristics were collected from the records of the nursing management department of the hospital. Study variables included demographic and occupational information, variables related to mental health assessment, organ systems involved in COVID-19, and duration of symptoms. Frequencies, percentage distributions, means, standard deviation, and range (minimum, maximum) were used as descriptive analysis methods. Associations between symptoms’ persistency and clinical characteristics were assessed by  logistic and linear regressions.  

Age, N95 mask use, and respiratory protection significantly contributed to the persistence of COVID-19 symptoms (P < 0.05). The prevalence of long COVID among HCWs was 9.44% among 445 participants. The loss of taste persisted longer than the other symptoms before returning to normal.  Among the postrecovery complications asked, anxiety was the most common persistent mental symptom (58.5%), followed by gloomy mood (46.3%) and low interest (46.2%), respectively.  

HCWs with COVID-19 symptoms had prolonged symptoms of COVID-19 that can affect their work performance, thus, we recommend evaluating COVID-19 symptoms in HCWs with infection history.

Climate is one of the determining factors in the quantity and quality of agricultural products, therefore, in this study, the relationship between precipitation and temperature (as explanatory variables) with rice yield in 40 cities and wheat yield in 30 cities (as dependent variables) was investigated in the Caspian coastal area during 2000-2017. Spatial statistical analyses were performed with using the Moran autocorrelation test and geographically weighted regression. Based on the results (Moran index, z = 0.4342121 for rice and z = 0.719571 for wheat, respectively), it was revealed that the spatial distribution pattern of rice and wheat yield had a cluster pattern. The results of the geographic weighted regression analysis showed that the temperature increase was more desirable than the precipitation increase so the increasing temperature could lead to yield increases. In the eastern parts of the study area, the positive effect of precipitation on rice yield (with 0.020 to 0.540 regression coefficients) was remarkable; the results also revealed a negative relationship between temperature and rice yield in the southeast and eastern parts and a positive effect on rice yield in other areas. Also, the effect of precipitation on wheat yield was negative in the west and central parts of the study area (with -0.481 to -0.871 regression coefficients). According to the results, a negative relationship was dominant between temperature and wheat yield in the east and southeastern parts of the study area and a positive relationship was detected in other areas. Finally, the results indicated that in the western and central parts, due to heavy rainfall and a low number of sunny hours, an increase in temperature is more favourable than an increase in rainfall. In the eastern and southeastern regions of the region, where the amount of precipitation is lower than the threshold required for rice and wheat, an increase in precipitation is more desirable.

Identifying homogeneous climatic zones plays an important role in the success of regional development programs. The climate system is composed of various elements, factors, and variables that together form the climatic components of a region. Multi-characteristic and multivariate methods can combine and overlap the types of elements and variables effective in constructing the climate with appropriate weights in the climatic zoning area. In the present study, climatic zoning of the Caspian region was performed using factor analysis and cluster analysis. For this purpose, a 30*30 matrix consisting of 30 meteorological stations and 30 climatic and environmental variables was formed. The results of factor analysis showed that the climate of the region is affected by 5 factors including precipitation-humidity, temperature, wind, sunlight, and environmental factors. These factors explained a total of 92.5% of the variance of the data. Then, cluster analysis was performed by the hierarchical integration method of Ward on the five mentioned factors. The results showed four climatic zones including humid, semi-humid, semi-arid, and arid in the study area.

This study aims to estimate the yield of spring chickpea using machine learning methods of linear regression models in Kermanshah region, west of Iran. The meteorological variables, agrometeorology and remotely-sensed based indices as predictor variables and yield data of Agricultural Jihad Organization of Kermanshah as a response variable were used for four growth stages during 1990-1991 to 2017-2018. Twenty four and three years data were used for training and model validation, respectively. The results revealed that among the linear models, Lasso model with a coefficient of determination of 67% and a standard error of 59.8 kg.ha-1 was chosen as a best model for crop yield estimation in the emergence to 50% of flowering stages. This model has relative deviations of 0.4, -0.3 and 3.5 for the years 1997-1998, 2005-2006 and 2010-2011, respectively.

In some hadith and historical books of Sunnis, there are narrations and reports that, according to them, the Holy Prophet (pbuh) took off his clothes and exposed his private parts and was prevented from doing so based on an unseen call. Two groups of these reports are related to the Prophet's childhood, one group is related to the Prophet's adolescence, and one group is related to his youth, which can be criticized in terms of documents and texts. Despite the importance of this topic, no independent research has been conducted in this field. In the documentary review, it was found that the documents of the narratives of the Prophet's nakedness before his mission are weak, and in the textual criticism, the discussed narrations are inconsistent with the verses of the Quran, Sunnah and reason, and they are scattered and full of anxiety. Finally, the origin of these reports was investigated and it became clear that these traditions were made by the Umayyads to destroy the reputation of the Prophet.

The key to the success of regional development policy and endogenous development is to emphasize the specific characteristics of the target region, using the potential of human resources, institutions and local physical resources. This study aims to determine the actual and potential sub-sectors for agricultural development planning in Khorasan Razavi province, and aims to provide a correct understanding of the capabilities and restrictions of the provincial cities in each agricultural sub-sectors. For this purpose, analytical models of the spatial coefficient in the spatial economy have been used to measure the actual and potential local advantages of the cities in order to plan the development of the agricultural sector of Khorasan Razavi Province and the data from 2012 to 2017 extracted from the statistical yearbooks of the agricultural jihad of Khorasan Razavi Province. Based on the results of the static spatial coefficient analysis in Khorasan Razavi province, livestock and fisheries sub-sectors are considered basic. Also, the three sub-sectors of horticulture, fisheries and livestock have high development potential in the province. Although there is no need to worry about the status of horticultural and fisheries sub-sectors in Khorasan Razavi province, the declining share of the livestock sub-sector in the added value of the agricultural sector of the province as well as the decrease in the number of advantageous cities, especially in the production of red meat, requires the special attention of policy makers towards this sub-sector. Conducting such studies can be effective in future planning for the continuous production of agricultural products both at the provincial and national levels. Improving investment security in this sub-sector at advantageous points in order to increase investment beyond compensating the depreciation of existing investments can be considered as one of the main solutions.

Urban expansion leads to the creation of urban heat islands, which can create risks for human health and the environment. Knowledge of the state of vegetation, changes in land use and temperature of each region over time is very important and is used in micro and macro planning. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship between temperature and vegetation in creating a thermal island in Isfahan city. In this regard, the use of Landsat ETM satellite images during the period of 1990-2019, LST and NDVI indices, and land use were studied and investigated. The results of the investigations show an increase in the size of the city and a decrease in the size of garden lands and marginal pastures of the city. Areas without vegetation are located in the urban area and residential areas and in the southern and eastern heights of Isfahan city. The maximum NDVI index is also in the western and southeastern areas of Isfahan city. The intensity of heat islands is more than other land uses according to the minimum and maximum level and average temperature in urban land and with the increase in the area of ​​residential uses and urban development, the intensity of heat islands has increased. On the other hand, the lowest temperature intensity of heat islands is observed in irrigated agricultural lands and gardens. In general, it can be said that in the city of Isfahan, the high temperature is mostly in the central core of the city, and the surroundings of the city are covered by the middle temperature layer. Low temperatures have also been observed in agricultural use. Parks and urban green spaces also have medium temperature classes due to their proximity to urban uses and being influenced by them. During the studied period, the largest area was related to average temperature and this trend will continue in the coming years.

Climatic and regional conditions have provided a good environment for agricultural development, especially in the Caspian Sea provinces. The purpose of this study is to identify the effect of climate variables on spatial analysis of grain yield and Grain cultivation capability in the southern coast of the Caspian Sea. Then, using important functions of spatial statistics including moron index and hot spots analysis of spatial patterns of rice, wheat and barley yields on the southern coast of the Caspian Sea during the statistical period of 2000-2016 were investigated. According to the results of Moran index analysis, it was determined that the yield of rice, wheat and barley were positive and close to one in the study period, indicating the clustering of the spatial distribution of the yield of the products under study. Also, based on the results of Local Indicators of Spatial Association and the analysis of hot spots, high value values or positive spatial correlation of rice yield were mainly found in Mazandaran province and high values or positive spatial correlation of wheat yield in southern parts of Golestan province and limited parts From Mazandaran Province. For yield of barley, the most areas with high positive spontaneous autocorrelation (hot spots) are mainly confined to Babolsar and Joybar cities of Mazandaran province at confidence level of 99%, Babol in 95% confidence level and Aliabad city Located in Golestan province at a confidence level of 90%. Low value of wheat and barley yields were found in the eastern and western parts of Gilan province at 99, 95 and 90 percent confidence levels.

After the Persian Constitutional Revolution, the press continued and developed its role as the most effective means of mass communication. During this period, due to political freedom, the critical role of the press grew in all aspects, especially in political structure. The present study, based on a historical method and sources, addresses these issues: the interaction between the press and the government during the first parliament (1324-1324 A.H.), the approach of the press in reporting the news and events. According to the evidence, after the Persian Constitutional Revolution, the press freedom in a critical approach to the social and political circumstances, especially to the regime, increased progressively. This critical approach and the publication of informing articles, occasionally very intense,  disrupted their interaction with the government so that eventually, Mohammad Ali Shah Qajar limited them by restrictions.

Security is a valuable asset to human societies. The expansion of societies, the complexity of human relations and resource constraints, and the emergence of colonialism, exploitation, and power-seeking in recent decades have provided grounds for security decline and it has redoubled the need to pay attention to security. Islam is the most complete religion among human religions and Since one of the basic missions of jurisprudence is to regulate social relations based on the rules of Sharia, the way of guaranteeing the right to legitimacy of security has been seriously considered.In this text, using the method of library analysis and relying on data from existing interpretations and research, among the types of security, psychological security has been studied. For this purpose, first, psychological security in the Qur'an was analyzed in terms of the necessary contexts for its formation and analysis as an effective social factor. Then, the quality of its guarantee was explained using civil and criminal methods in Imami jurisprudence and the other aspects of ensuring mental security were also examined. Findings indicate the meaning of Quranic verses on the legitimacy of the right to mental security by introducing "faith" as a source of mental security and its guarantee is in the light of the reform of social relations with the focus on the category of social trust and the research findings indicate the existence of criminal and civil methods as deterrents to prevent the occurrence of threatening and disruptive elements of psychological security in society.

Carbon dioxide emission is one of important challenges facing humanity, which has attracted the attention of many researchers and policymakers in recent years. The purpose of this study is investigating the factors influencing carbon dioxide emission. For achieving the purpose of paper spatial econometrics model and panel data of MENA countries are used over the period of 2000-2015. The results indicate that carbon dioxide emission in the MENA region countries have significant effect on surrounding countries. Also, the variables of energy consumption (0.01), economic globalization (0.134), industrialization (0.405) and urbanization (0.042) have positive and significant effect on carbon dioxide emission in the MENA region. The interaction among energy consumption and globalization (0.361), energy consumption and, industrialization (0.234) and urbanization (0.085) have a positive and significant effect on carbon dioxide emission. According to the results of this study, it is necessary that policymakers should not only focus on the national economic benefits but also consider the national and regional environmental benefits in policy making.

Subtropical anticyclones are among the large-scale atmospheric centers of action in the northern hemisphere in the east of the oceans. Clockwise flow and high surface pressure are two prominent features of these systems. These systems have an annual trend and usually achieve maximum flow and surface pressure in the summer, especially in July. Understanding the factors influencing the development and intensification of these anticyclones has been the favorite of many researchers. One of these factors has been the general circulation of the atmosphere. In this study, a climatological study of the general atmospheric circulation, including the Hadley and Walker circulations, has been performed. Their role in the development and strengthening of subtropical anticyclones has been investigated. The research has been done in three parts; 1- Mean Meridian Circulation, 2- meridional circulation in the North Atlantic and Pacific, and 3- Walker circulation in the North Atlantic and Pacific. In this study, the meridional component of wind, vertical velocity (omega), and horizontal wind divergence have been used. Data at 27 pressure levels with a horizontal resolution of 0.25 × 0.25 ° were extracted from the European Center for Medium Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and the ERA5 version. The monthly mean of the data used was conducted over 40 years, from 1979 to 2018. The Mass Stream Function (MSF) method has been used to quantify the meridional and walker circulation.The Mean Meridian Circulation showed that the meridional circulation in the equinox months consists of a pair of Hadley cells in which air rises in the tropics and subsides in the subtropics. Also, a solstitial cell is found with the ascent in the outer tropics of the summer hemisphere and subsidence in the outer tropics of the winter hemisphere. Although the Mean Meridional Circulation showed that mass transfer takes place in the summer of the Northern Hemisphere to the Southern Hemisphere and the Hadley circulation could not explain and justify the maximum activity of the subtropical anticyclones, but the meridional circulation at smaller cross-sections in the East Atlantic and Pacific showed that the Hadley cells play a vital role in mass transfer to the subtropics and mid-latitudes. The mean walker circulation (20-40 ° N) showed that the source of this circulation is only the latent heat released over the waters and the lands of the western oceans that have no role in mass transfer to the east. Westerly and southwesterly winds also form mass transfer in the Walker circulation to the northeast of the oceans. Heating in northwestern Africa and North America is another phenomenon that plays a role in subsidence in the North Atlantic and Pacific. The subsidence induced from heating on African lands is much more severe than that in North America. This may depend on the climate and extent of these areas. Therefore, as a result of this research, it can be said that three processes: Hadley circulation, Walker circulation, and heating on the lands adjacent to the eastern oceans, are effective in mass transfer and subsidence in the east Atlantic and Pacific. These conditions form strong northerly winds in the eastern oceans and trade winds in the tropics and effectively develop and strengthen subtropical anticyclones.

 This study aims to assess the implementation of drug-related harm reduction programs in Iranian prisons and suggest solutions for their improvement.

 This study was conducted in three steps. First, library method was used for collecting data from the central library of Iran’s Prisons, Security and Corrective Measures Organization. In the second step, performance indicators were extracted based on the results of first step and two researcher-made checklists were designed. Finally, a field visit and a semi-structured interview with the authorities involved in the treatment and harm reduction services were carried out.

 In most of prisons, drug-related harm reduction programs were underway. Despite a lack of human resources and budget at the beginning, the quality of measures was gradually increased and the attitude of authorities was improved. Methadone Maintenance Treatment and Triangular Clinics were the most common harm reduction programs, in addition to HIV and tuberculosis screening programs in collaboration with medical sciences universities. The program continued despite the change of officials.

 Harm reduction programs are able to reduce infection diseases, self-harm and violent behaviors in prisons of Iran. Cultural programs along with other harm reduction programs, briefings and seeking support from the authorities can greatly help with continuation of the programs in prisons. By eliminating the shortage of manpower and redefining the security areas for ordinary prisoners, it will be possible to make better use of the facilities of universities and research centers.

Trade agreements play an important role in reducing trade barriers and increasing trade flows among countries. Empirical researches indicate that the presence in trade agreements is not guarantee for increasing exports in all countries and products. Therefore, considering the importance of fishery exports in recent years and lack of study in this area, the aim of this paper is investigating the effect of Iran’s membership in trade agreements on fishery exports. To achieve the purpose, the gravity model and information of Iran’s fishery exports to 25 Asian countries with 88% share is used during the period of 2001-2016. Based on the results, Iran’s membership in the trade agreements has had a positive and significant effect on Iran’s fishery exports to trading partners. The results of the interaction between trade agreements and trade barriers showed that trade agreements reduced the effect of trade barriers such as geographical distance. So, it is suggested that exporters take advantage of the capacity created through the presence of trade agreements to identify new markets and develop appropriate long-term marketing programs to export to these markets.

One of the main topics of traditional rhetoric is the impact of speech on the audience. Accordingly, the more rhetorical the speech is, the more influential it is on the audience. Observance of addressee’s circumstances and positions should certainly be considered by a poet(ess) or an author in order to transfer his/her thought or passion to the audience in the best way. To do so, there are varied tools and methods. One of the most effective tools is to strike a balance in the phonetic chain of words or the vocabulary chain of sentences. This balance and coordination as well as the role speech musical plays on the audience is called "the magic of vicinity". Works in which “form” is more important than the “meaning” can be examined from this perspective. (Examining the types of balances and their role in influencing the audience). Among the various types of literature, children poetry has such an ability because of its well-formed nature. In this research, the writers' effort has been to study the magic of vicinity in child poetry using the formalist method and show which types of balances (phonetic, lexical, and syntactical) exist more in it. Further, the research attempts to demonstrate why and how these balances affect the audience (children).The findings of this study show that:1. There are a variety of phonetic, lexical, and syntactic equations (albeit with different frequencies) in child poems. 2. Nonsense elements that do not play a role in the meaning of poetry are considered as an effective factor in musical compilation in child poetry. 3. As the game for a child is the living itself (according to Jean Piaget, a child psychology theorist), and the child learns everything from the childish games, poetry and a variety of equilibrium, which can be considered as language games, are a suitable platform for the child's education and intellectual development.

In Iran, due to the large disparities between the provinces of the country, both in terms of climatic conditions and diverse natural resources and in terms of investment and production, for economic activities, especially in the agricultural sector, regional planning at the provincial level is an undeniable necessity to exploit the potentials and capacities of provinces. The main objective of this study was to identify the capabilities of the provinces in the development of each agricultural sub-sector and time changes of these capabilities by introducing the dynamic spatial coefficient index and by integrating two methods of dynamic and static spatial coefficient, the possibility of analyzing the actual and potential situation It has provided the agricultural sector during the years 1390 to 1396. The results of this study show that over time, the number of capable provinces in the agricultural sector has decreased. Also, the development potential of the agricultural sector has been calculated based on the average values ​​of the static coefficient index (1.455) and dynamic (0.999) index, which has been decreasing in the provinces of the country during the period under review. While the static spatial coefficient index introduces Golestan and Mazandaran provinces as the most capable and Tehran and Bushehr provinces as the least capable provinces in the agricultural sector, respectively; According to the results of the dynamic spatial coefficient index, Hormozgan and Gilan provinces have the highest development potential and Bushehr and South Khorasan provinces have the lowest development potential, respectively. In addition, the results of the study in agricultural sub-sectors show that the static spatial coefficient index has the highest values ​​in the sub-sectors of fishing, animal husbandry and forestry, respectively; While according to the dynamic spatial coefficient index, the sub-sectors of fishing, forestry and agriculture and horticulture have the greatest potential for development.

Owing to the rise in water demand and looming climate change, recent years have witnessed much focus on global drought scenarios. Drought as a complex natural hazard is best characterized by multiple climatological and hydrological parameters and the assessment of it is important for planning and managing water resources. So understanding the history of drought in the area is essential like investigating the effects of drought. In this study, at first Climate parameters affecting the drought have downscaled by LARS-WG stochastic weather generator over Gilan province in Iran. After choosing a suitable model, outputs of it used for assessing the drought situation in the period of 2011-2030. Assessing the drought was done by TOPSIS method during 2 periods (present and future). After validation of the method, zoning the drought was performed by IDW method in GIS. Results shown that expanse of situations with lower drought index will increase. Also we will expect more droughts in these regions for the future.

Paying attention to the food industry and the increasing and growing importance of the issue of healthy and nutrient food production is a valuable opportunity for local producers to increase the level of production by identifying target markets and customers, and thereby increasing producer income per capita, Increase employment and increase value added. The purpose of this study was to identify the factors affecting the level of consumption of local and native dairy products among households in Kermanshah. Data and information were collected by completing 233 questionnaires by simple sampling method with an appropriate assignment in Kermanshah city in 2017. Because of the ordering nature of the information, the ordered logit model has been used in order to assess the level of native dairy products consumption. The results of the model showed that household income, brand loyalty, indigenous diversity, distribution and access to indigenous products, the form of supply and packaging of products, and the history of consumption of native products could have a positive and significant effect on the level of native local consumption.

The environmental impacts of pesticides, genetically modified organisms and other chemicals used to increase agricultural production have raised consumers' concerns about the quality and safety of agricultural products. And now, with the increase of environmental awareness, it has criticized modern agricultural activities. These factors have encouraged consumers to consume organic agricultural products. Way of producing the organic products can increase the production costs and, finally, increase the total price of these products. So, consumers should pay more for these products than the inorganic ones. In spite of higher prices of these products, consumers are increasingly tending to consume organic products. So that, consumers tend to pay more for better and more organic and safe agricultural products. Several factors influence the consumer payment preferences for organic products. In this study, these factors are classified into four groups and their impacts on consumer preferences are examined.

This study has used the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) is a powerful collection of multivariate analysis techniques, which specifies the relationships between variables through the use of two main sets of models: Measurement model and Structural model. Measurement model tests the accuracy of proposed measurements by assessing relationships between latent variables and their respective indicators. The structural model drives the assessment of the hypothesized relationships between the latent variables, which allow testing the statistical hypotheses for the study. Additionally, SEM considers the modeling of interactions, nonlinearities, correlated independents, measurement error, correlated error terms, and multiple latent independents that each one is measured by multiple indicators. Unlike conventional analysis, SEM allows the inclusion of latent variables into the analysis and it is not limited to relationships among observed variables and constructs. It allows the study to measure any combination of relationships by examining a series of dependent relationships simultaneously while considering potential errors of measurement among all variables. SEM has several advantages over conventional analysis, including greater flexibility regarding assumptions (particularly allowing interpretation even in the face of multicollinearity). SEM allows the use of confirmatory factor analysis to reduce measurement error by testing multiple indicators per latent variable while offering superior model visualization through its graphical modeling interface. Structural Equation Modeling include six steps (data collection, model specification, identification, estimation, evaluation and modification). In the present study, the variables including marketing factors, awareness and knowledge, demographic characteristics and attitudes towards organic products are considered as latent variables that the relationship of these variables with the payment preferences is investigated. In order to collect required data, a researcher-made questionnaire and simple random sampling method has been used.

Results indicate that given the significance of factor loadings, the indicators (observed variables) such as packaging, brand, advertising, discounts and shopping incentives, familiarity with different types of products, way to get information, familiarity with organic agricultural product stores have the required accuracy to measure latent variables. Regarding the model fitting indexes and being model values in the acceptable range, we can say that the measurement and structural models fit well with the data. The results of structural model and hypothesis testing show that awareness and knowledge, demographic characteristics, attitude towards organic products have a significant effect (0.27, 0.59 and 0.21, respectively) on consumer payments preferences. In other words, increasing the awareness of consumer about organic products, increasing household size and income, the positive attitude of consumers towards the characteristics of organic products would increase consumer payments preferences. Also, marketing factors have a significant effect (0.68) on the attitude toward organic products. So that, marketing factors including packaging, brand, advertising and discounts and shopping incentives have a positive effect on the attitude toward organic products. Therefore, hypotheses 2 through 5 are supported.

The Findings indicate that increasing the awareness of consumer about organic agricultural products, increasing household size and income, the positive attitude of consumers towards the characteristics of organic agricultural products will increase consumer payments preferences. Therefore, it is suggested that the relevant authorities take serious action to inform about the properties and nutritional value of organic agricultural products, the differences in the labels of food products, and the existing stores supplying of organic products. Also, it is recommended that the numbers of organic supply stores are boosted, especially in areas where high-income people live.