فهرست مطالب mehdi jalouli

In the present study, using a Structural macroeconometric model of econometric structure, the effects and consequences of economic instability on economic growth of major macroeconomic sectors in Iran during the period of 1976-2016 have been investigated. First, using the principal component analysis method, an index for economic instability was created. In order to study the effect of this index, firstly, the data on exogenous variables were calculated using the predictive method and the ARIMA time series models, and in some cases also according to the average rate of the annual growth of that variable has been generated in several previous periods and then, with the change in each of the economic instability factors in 2018, the effect of this change on the intrinsic variables of the pattern (which includes the production of agricultural sectors, industries and mines, oil and gas, and services) was observed for the years 2018-2021. Any deviation in the process of moving the intrinsic variables of the pattern from the underlying trend is a result of economic instability on the variables studied. The results show that the lowest and the greatest gap (the effect of economic instability) between the underlying trend and the trend after economic instability is observed in the agricultural sector and the oil and gas sector.

Besides economic factors affecting economic growth, some cultural, political and social factors influence economic growth and development too; inter alia, social components play important roles. Social instability originating from social threats is one of the most important social components, which affects economic growth.This study aims to investigate the consequences of social instability on economic growth in Iran during 1981-2011. For this purpose, the Auto- Regressive Distributed LagModel (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM) are estimated by Eviews.5 and Microfit 4.1. Using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), an index for social instability (absence of social capital) is made. The results show that physical capital, labor and social instability have the highest effectiveness on economic growth, respectively. Paying attention of policymakers to improving social conditions and reducing social instabilities may lead to higher economic growth.

International sanctions against Iran have been lead to an increase in demand of foreign exchange and ultimately cause an increase in exchange rate. In this study، we aim to investigate and forecast the consequences of exchange rate increase on economic growth of major economic sectors of Iran during 1976-2014. For this purpose، we used a short scale macro-econometric model which has been estimated by the new co-integration approach. The results show that an increase in exchange rate will reduce the production of all economic sectors. Also، the growth rate of all economic sectors will be reduced to its minimum and then will increase. Also، we have come to the conclusion that the production of oil & gas sector will be reduced more than the other sectors.

A medium scale structural macroeconometric model is constructed to investigate the effects of energy price liberalization on the main macroeconomic variables. The analysis is conducted under 3 different scenarios of increasing the price of energy sources to the level prevailed in the countries of the Persian Gulf region. These 3 scenarios are a sudden increase, a gradual increase within a 5 years time span and a gradual increase in energy prices together with some compensation of household and the industry.The simulation results show that under the first scenario, inflation rate goes up to 94%, GDP growth rate reduces to 1.2% and unemployment rate rises to 11.5%. Under the second scenario, in the first year of rising energy prices, inflation rate increase to 27.7% and GDP growth rates falls to 2%. If the third scenario is chosen, the inflation rate will increase to 95.2% in the first year, while GDP growth rate and unemployment rate will be 1.2% and 11.5% respectively.

Following the Islamic revolution and the imposed war, Iranian economy was faced with a persistent inflationary era. To combat inflation and help the low income families, Iranian government subsidized the basic commodities for a long period of time. As a consequence, relative prices were distorted which resulted in misallocation of economic resources.
Recently the government decided to announce an economic reform plan to eliminate indirect subsidies and instead follow a direct money transfer to the needed families. It is thought that this kind of subsidy program will boost economic growth and bring about social justice. But the question is what adverse possible consequences it will impose on the economy of the country.
This article investigates the effect of eliminating basic commodity subsidies on the major macro economic variables, such as inflation and economic growth, within a structural macro econometric model framework. It is found that if all subsidies are removed immediately, inflation rate will increase by %22.2 in the first year of implementing the program. Also, economic growth will decrease by %4.06 and will reach reduced to %1.96.
In an alternative scenario, if the program is implemented gradually in 5 years time, the inflation rate will increase by %19.2 in the first year, but will gradually decrease over the successive years. Moreover, economic growth will decrease by %4.2 and will lead to %2.