فهرست مطالب mehrzad ebrahimi

After 2020 and the spread of the coronavirus, the importance of government spending on health and treatment became more apparent than before. Countries that had a higher ratio of health and medical expenses were less vulnerable to the negative effects of the pandemic. This article examines the effects of government spending, separating the effects of health care spending and other government spending on Iran's business cycles in the framework of a Bayesian stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model in two scenarios. In the first scenario, the effects of total government spending on business cycles have been investigated, and in the second scenario, total government spending is explained by separating health and treatment spending and other government spending. According to the results of the final logarithm of the model based on the Laplace approximation, the second scenario is closer to the features and data structure of the Iranian economy. In the present research, healthcare expenditure is defined as a shock, which is explained as a first-order autoregression process, and on the other hand, it is a part of the total government expenditure. To investigate the effects of this shock on the business cycles of the Iranian economy, two tools of variance analysis and instantaneous reaction functions have been used. According to the results of the analysis of variance, the healthcare expenditure shock explains more than 14% of product fluctuations, more than 11% of consumption fluctuations and more than 10% of investment fluctuations for the Iranian economy. Also, based on the results of instantaneous reaction functions of the variables, in response to the shock, health and treatment expenses, production, consumption, total government expenses and employment increase, while investment and wages decrease.

The present study deals with the design of the puzzle of financial prices regarding the response of inflation to government spending shocks. For this purpose, using the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, known as impulse models, uncertainty effects created by the government's current expenditures and construction expenditures and other effective indicators such as Impulses of technology, real wages, and short-term interest rates on inflation were examined. The data of the study was collected from the website of the central bank, and the model is estimated to have been using Eviews software for the years 1987-2020. The findings showed that an impulse from private consumption and government spending increases inflation by 2% and 1%, respectively. The response of inflation to the impetus from the technology area is also close to zero. In other words, introducing the technology variable into the financial puzzle of Iran's economy will cause a slight adjustment in inflation in the short term. The use of the technology variable will disturb the reactions of inflation and consumption to some extent. Still, on the other hand, the use of the technology variable will cause the government's expenses to increase. The response of inflation to the increase in government spending, especially at the lower limit, is an increase. Inflation's response to impulses from the short-term nominal interest rate is from the lower limit up to five periods and the upper limit up to two ascending periods. In the Iranian economy, officials and policymakers do not increase the nominal interest rate in response to the increase in inflation. This factor leads to a decrease in real interest and reduces private economic activity as well as real wages. In general, by looking at the results of the design of the puzzle of financial prices regarding the response of inflation to government spending shocks, it can be seen that in most periods, the response of inflation to government spending shocks is incremental

The present study aims to investigate the impact of financial market risks on the value of financial assets. In this study, first, by studying the research literature, financial market risk indicators including bad economic uncertainty and good economic uncertainty were identified. Then, the most important indicators from the perspective of experts were determined by the pairwise comparison questionnaire and AHP method. In the next step, the uncertainty indices were calculated by GARCH regression and derivation of conditional standard deviation. Then, the effect of financial market risks on the value of financial assets was examined by VAR regression. The statistical population of the data is related to the financial market and macroeconomy of Iran in the period 1986-2020. The results showed that the response of consumption of financial assets to the uncertainty of the stock index in different periods is high and increasing and the reaction of consumption of financial assets to the uncertainty of economic growth is negative. The production of financial assets is not affected by stock market uncertainty and economic growth uncertainty. Stock market profits are not initially affected by stock market uncertainty, but in later periods this effect increases and stock market profits react negatively to economic growth uncertainty. The reaction of stock market income to stock market uncertainty and economic growth uncertainty is very small. The reaction of stock market investment to stock market uncertainty and economic growth uncertainty is very strong and negative. Also, the stock market risk rate does not have much effect on stock market uncertainty and economic growth uncertainty.

In developing countries, economic growth is the main concern of policy makers and economic thinkers. Knowing the tools and factors affecting economic growth is essential and requires deeper investigations. The importance of knowing the effective factors in the growth and development of countries in today's growing world is undeniable. The degree of effectiveness and recognition of these factors can be an important step towards accelerating growth and development. Accelerating economic growth is a tendency in developing countries. Economists are looking for an answer to the main question, what are the reasons for the difference in the economic growth of the countries of the world? In examining the factors affecting economic growth, two groups of causes can be mentioned. The first group is related to direct factors such as the accumulation of human and physical capital, and the second group includes final factors such as institutions, social capital, etc. In relation to political factors, the situation of developing countries is slightly different from their situation and performance regarding economic factors, especially, the internal economic structure of countries is very vulnerable to adverse factors. Political instability, as the most important internal factor, has the closest interaction with the concept of economic security in influencing the performance of macroeconomic variables, including production. The insecurities that arise in the atmosphere of political instability and violent behavior (such as terrorist activities) in developing countries cause the country's inability to successfully attract foreign capital, capital flight and reduction of capital. Investments are made. Among the indicators of political instability, which has been raised as one of the sensitive issues of the international community, especially developing countries, and its effects on the developments of international economic and political relations, is the phenomenon of terrorism. In this context, Asimoglu (2001), believes that with more efficient and better institutions, more investment will be made in the field of physical and human capital, security, improvement in property rights and less deviations in policies. Among the variables affecting growth and investment, security is a key category. Security is a complex concept and due to the existence of constituent quality indicators and its complexity, both theoretically and empirically, it is a source of controversy. Terrorism is a fundamental factor disrupting economic and social security.

The purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship between terrorism and economic growth in selected countries of the Middle East using the panel spatial econometric method during the period of 1980-2019 using the spatial Durbin model (SDM). Statistics and information required for variables of GDP per capita, foreign trade as a percentage of GDP, bank credits granted to the private sector, foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP and inflation rate from the World Bank website and For the terrorism variable, it has been extracted from the global database of terrorism, separately for 9 selected countries in the Middle East region.

First, in order to check the spatial dependence of the Moran and Jerry C test, the spatial dependence of the countries was confirmed and based on the significance of the Moran test, the research model was estimated in the spatial panel framework. According to the results of the research, terrorist activities show negative and destructive effects on the economic growth of these countries, and this result is consistent with the results of other studies such as Hamida (2018) and Sanafdiari (2017). According to the results of the research, the variables of foreign direct investment, foreign trade, and bank credits have a significant and positive effect on the economic development of the studied countries, of which foreign investment and foreign trade have the greatest impact on economic growth. Also, the inflation rate has a negative and significant effect on the economic growth of the above countries, and these results are consistent with the results of other studies such as Kavah (2007), Khan (2019), Haider et al. (2015) and Sana and Shafi (2018). Be 

Terrorism and the increase in casualties caused by accidents have had a negative effect on economic growth. Terrorism affects economic growth through different channels. The increase in threats and terrorist incidents leads to insecurity in the country of origin and negatively affects the arrival of tourists. Terrorism also negatively affects investment in tourism-related fields by reducing the sense of security and prevents the strengthening of this sector. The direct effect of these terrorist incidents is to create an atmosphere of insecurity on the economy; Because it destroys and diverts productive economic resources. Scarce productive resources that could have been used to produce goods and services in society are now gone. Also, the resources and budgets allocated for other useful sectors of the economy, as a result of terrorist incidents, should now be used to strengthen the country's security. None of these changes, which are necessary to create security, will not create additional wealth for the society and will not raise the level of well-being, and will also negatively affect economic growth. On the other hand, foreign direct investment is one of the main drivers of economic development and its flow has strong effects on the country's economy. Terrorist activities reduce security and reduce investors' trust in countries exposed to terrorist activities, which leads to a decrease in the flow of foreign direct investment.

This research investigates the impact of economic sanctions on Iran's economy, particularly focusing on human capital, using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and a new Keynesian approach, from March 2001 to September 2021. The findings indicate that sanctions led to a decline in oil revenues, subsequently reducing public spending on education and hindering human capital development. This decline in human capital has far-reaching consequences, including diminished productivity, reduced investment, and slower economic growth, alongside an inflationary uptick. As inflation erodes real wages, households respond by reducing labor supply, which, in turn, dampens consumption. Given the critical role of human capital in Iran's economic growth, policymakers must safeguard public education spending, particularly during periods of decreased oil revenues. By prioritizing investments in education, the government can mitigate the adverse effects of sanctions and foster long-term economic resilience. In conclusion, the study underscores the importance of maintaining educational investments amidst economic challenges, emphasizing the need for strategic fiscal management to sustain human capital development and drive economic progress.

This study evaluated a relationship between macroeconomic variables and the yield curve in Iran between years 1994:q1-2016:q4 using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The model consists of the household, the firm, the finance, the oil, the government, and the central bank. Both households and firms have the exclusive power to supply their labor and their products to adder, which makes it possible to stipulate nominal rigidity  in   wages and prices. After optimizing and obtaining the first order conditions of the brokers, using Uhlig method, the linear - log shape of the equations were obtained. The results of the impulse response functions indicates that the preliminary effect of the technology, monetary, and oil shocks on the slope of the Islamic treasury bills yield curve is positive, the preliminary effect of the technology, government expenditure, and cost push on the curvature of the yield curve is negative, and the preliminary effect of the technology, government expenditure, and cost push on the level of the yield curve is positive. The comparison of the moments of the model variables and the moments of the actual data of the Iranian economy reveals the success of the model in simulating the realities of the Iranian economy.

The purpose of this paper is to examine how money is created by recording accounting events in the balance sheets of banks. Therefore, a hypothetical economy, comprised of a central bank, a gharzolhasaneh bank, a commercial bank, and the people has been simulated. We pay special attention to special accounting records in the balance sheet of a commercial bank, interest rates and deferred bank loans in the banking system and their effect on the money creation process.  According to the results, the combined use of accrual basis of accounting in identifying uncollected facility income and cash basis of accounting in the payment of interest on deposits in a commercial bank leads to the money creation in the banking system and the higher the interest rate on deposits, the more money will be created. This will not happen in gharzolhasaneh Bank due to non-payment of interest on deposits and non-use of accrual basis of accounting system in identifying the income of paid loans. Also, in case of non-repayment of granted facilities and creation of deferred bank loans, the accrual basis of accounting system allows the commercial bank to continue the process of identifying facility income and paying unrealized interest on deposits, and interest paid on deposits enters the banking system as the new created money.

One of the most important goals of the countries, especially developing countries, is economic growth and development. Foreign direct investment along with human capital and financial development are important factors that can have a significant impact on economic growth. Human capital can be used as a facilitator for the transfer of technology related to foreign direct investment. In addition, evidences show that human capital plays a complementary role to the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth. Technology overflow into domestic companies is also more efficient when financial markets in the host economy are more developed. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to evaluate the short-run and long-run effects of foreign direct investment, human capital and financial development on the economic growth of various income groups in developing countries.

The model used for unsustainable economies (developing countries) is designed to be appropriate for the current study. In this model, the effect of population growth rate and technology, physical capital, human capital, financial development, foreign direct investment, foreign direct investment interaction and financial development and the interaction of foreign direct investment and human capital on economic growth is examined. The statistical population is developing countries in the period 2000-2019. For the study, developing countries were divided into four categories: low-income, lower-middle-income, upper-middle-income, and high-income, which included a total of 27 countries (9 Asian countries, 9 African countries, and 9 South American countries). In this study, first, the significance of variables for developing countries by income groups was investigated. Then, based on the Kao test, the existence of long-run equilibrium relationships among the variables related to the income groups of developing countries was confirmed. FMOLS and DOLS methods were used to investigate the integration.

The results of long-run estimates show that foreign direct investment alone is 0.27 effective on the economic growth of high-income countries, and when combined with human capital and financial development, its impact on economic growth is 0.42 and It will be 0.104. Thus, the effect of the interaction of foreign direct investment and human capital is greater than the effect of foreign direct investment alone on the economic growth of high-income countries. But in other income groups of developing countries, the interaction of foreign direct investment with human capital and financial development has not had a positive effect on economic growth. Also, the results of short-run estimates showed that foreign direct investment alone does not affect the economic growth of high-income countries, but the interaction of foreign direct investment and financial development and the interaction of foreign direct investment and human capital by 0.48 and respectively. 2.13 affects economic growth. This result shows that in the short run, foreign direct investment alone has no effect on economic growth, but along with human capital and financial development have a positive effect on economic growth in these countries. In other income groups of developing countries, the interaction of foreign direct investment with human capital and financial development has not had a positive effect on economic growth. Also, the correct component of the error of foreign direct investment interaction with financial development and human capital shows that in each period, 78% and 95% of the imbalances in the system are eliminated to achieve long-run equilibrium, respectively. But in other income groups, the speed of adjustment is very low or non-existent.

These results show that high-income countries have realized that it is possible to increase productivity due to the high level of human capital and skilled labor through the transfer of new technologies and technology overflows, and this is a positive factor in Economic growth works. Also in high-income developing countries, due to the high institutional capacity in the economic structure that has led to comprehensive efficiency in the mechanism of credit allocation of these countries, the interactive effect of foreign direct investment and financial development on economic growth in the short-run and long –run is positive.

Government expenditures as an important component of fiscal policy can play an important role in macroeconomic stabilization. Taking cyclical features and behaviors of various types of government expenditures into account, ameliorates the effectiveness of fiscal policy in confronting with economic shocks. This research tries to evaluate the cyclical features of different types of government expenditures and influential factors in Iran's economy by using Iran’s time series data from 1359 to 1398 and a two-stage autoregressive distributed lags model. Based upon the findings of this research, all types of government expenditures in Iran, behave procyclically. Government investment aggravates the fluctuation of fiscal cycles more than government consumption, and the procyclical effect of government investment in machinery is more than the procyclical effect of government investment in construction. In addition, the findings show that adding control variables, affects the logarithm coefficient of GDP in all models and therefore plays an important role in the cyclical behavior of various types of government expenditures. The government debt to GDP ratio and the government income to GDP ratio reduce cyclical fluctuations and the government size, inflation rate and elections intensify cyclical fluctuations.

The price of housing as a real estate is a function of credit factors that can affect fluctuations in housing prices. The purpose of this study is to identify the extent and severity of the effect of credit variables of mortgage facilities on housing price index in selected metropolises during the years 1389 to 1399, also in the framework of panel data, stepwise regression method has been used. Understanding the factors and variables affecting housing prices can play an important role in economic decisions related to housing and policy in this area. In this research, by using statistical and econometric methods and using panel data model, the factors affecting the cost of housing in Iranian metropolises have been studied with emphasis on credit variables. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of method. According to this model, the variables affecting the price of housing in Iranian metropolises are in order of priority: the amount of housing facilities, the ratio of the value of facilities to the price of housing, credit score of mortgage applicants, average installment repayment, inflation rate and interest rate of all bank facilities. The variables are statistically significant and in line with theoretical foundations. The results show that the most important factor determining the housing price index is the inflation rate with an impact factor of 1.93. The loan-to-housing ratio ratio, the amount of mortgage facilities and the credit score have a reducing effect on the housing price index. In general, the higher the credit score of facility applicants in metropolitan areas, the lower the facility interest rate and inflation rate, the higher the facility amount and the higher the LTV ratio, the lower the housing price index.

One of the main objectives of fiscal policy is to stabilize business cycles and macroeconomic stability. Procyclical fiscal policy intensifies business cycle fluctuations and increases the economy’s vulnerability to external shocks. Determining the cyclical properties of various types of government expenditures helps the government to adopt an appropriate fiscal policy in times of economic crisis in a way that ensures economic stability. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the cyclical features of fiscal policy and its determinants with respect to the various types of government expenditures in Iran. Using Iran’s time series data from 1980 to 2019 and a regression-based method with a two-stage autoregressive distributed lags model, this study shows that fiscal policy in Iran is procyclical and therefore does not pursue stabilization. In addition, among the various types of government expenditures, government investment in machinery and total government investment has the highest level of procyclicality. Adding control variables intensifies the procyclicality of government investment in construction and government investment in machinery and total government expenditures, and reduces the procyclicality of government consumption and total government investment.

Price fluctuation patterns in financial markets and analysis of price fluctuations have always received attention. Thus, the accuracy of the system used for analysis is very important. For more than two decades, econophysics has been using quantum physics and Schrodinger functions to address price fluctuations, confirming the need for the development of a common framework. This study analyzed the daily data from Stock, Gold, and Foreign Exchange markets in Iran from 2013 to 2022. Following the total Stock index and the price of the full Bahar Azadi coin from the Gold market and the unofficial Dollar rate from the Foreign Exchange market, the relevant Schrödinger equation was obtained using the financial quantum approach and the Hamiltonian operator. Then, the wave function was solved. Finally, the graphs for the distribution and average rate of return in each market were plotted and compared. The results showed that the Stock market has the lowest level of risk compared to other markets and the Gold market has the highest risk. Thus, the probability of fluctuations and crises in the Gold market is higher and in the Stock market is lower than in other markets. This implies a higher level of transparency in the Stock market compared to the other two markets.

Due to the available statistics, More than 10% of the added value of the Iranian industrial sector is supplied from the food industry products; in 2019, Iran's exports of agricultural and food processing products reached $ 5.5 billion, which is very significant despite severe sanctions against Iran. Additionally, On the basis of the quarterly statics and information of Iran's total exports in industrial subgroups, food industries with about 14% of the country's exports have the largest share of exports in the Iranian export portfolio after the chemical products, which indicates the importance and greatness of this sector of the Iranian economy and it appears that by better understanding the advantages of this sector, we can make better use of the existing capacities in this industry to promote exports. Accordingly, considering the importance of this sub-sector of industry in the Iranian economy, this study will examine the comparative advantage of four product codes of planting fruit trees and nut seeds trees as well as other products, meat, fish, fruit, the vegetables, all kinds of

The phenomenon of unemployment is one of the major socio-economic problems that is directly and indirectly affected by the way of governance. Since the mid-1990s, under the influence of the development of new institutionalism literature and the recommendations of international institutions, governance and its components were considered as main deteminants of development strategy of countries and controlling the unemployment rate. According to the theory of new institutionalism, corruption is the main cause of unemployment and many economic problems of countries. The main aim of this research is to investigate the dynamic relationship between corruption and unemployment in OPEC member states for the period from 2005 to 2019. For this purpose, the generalized moment method (SGMM) is used in this research. The results indicate that corruption control can play an effective role in reducing the unemployment rate. Also, the political stability has a negative and significant effect on the unemployment rate; In the sense that the reduction of political instabilities and more governance control over political events can lead to a reduction in the unemployment rate in OPEC member states.

The present study investigates the effect of globalization on energy consumption in developing countries including Iran for the period 2000 to 2018 in the form of a quantile panel regression approach. For this purpose, the KOF index was used as a globalization variable. The index, KOF, includes real trade flows such as trade, foreign direct investment and portfolio investment, as well as trade barriers such as restrictions and tariffs on real flows. The results of this study show that in low energy consumption quantiles, the effect of globalization on energy consumption has been positive and significant;  But at high levels of energy consumption, the impact of globalization on energy consumption has gradually diminished. Also in high energy consumption quantiles, the effect of GDP on energy consumption has decreased, the effect of financial development and capital formation on energy consumption has gradually decreased and the effect of foreign investment on energy consumption has gradually decreased. According to the research results, it is necessary to take steps in the field of sustainable development by adopting and implementing rational policies consistent with the role of energy in the trade sector and provide the ground for economic growth and development.

One of the most important goals of the countries, especially developing countries, is economic growth and development. One of the sources that can retrieve the lack of capital in the developing countries and lead to economic growth is foreign direct investment. Some evidence shows the human capital plays a mediating role in the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth. The other important factor that can affect economic growth and the prosperity of countries, is the information and communication technology. Thus, the current research aim is to present a foreign direct investment model and economic growth in developing countries with the mediating role of human capital and information and communication technology.

The study populations are the developing countries between 2000-2018. In this research, the developing countries in three continents of Asia, Africa, and Southern America have been selected. Then, the countries are divided into four different income groups: developing countries with high-income, developing countries with higher than medium income, developing countries with lower than medium income, and developing countries with low-income. Thus, in the end, 27 countries in three continents have been chosen as the statistical sample. The method used in this study is the multi-group modeling approach with the structural models with partial least square (PLS) approach.

The results showed that only in the developing countries with high income, the human capital and information and communication technology have a mediating role on the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth. Thus in high income countries, foreign direct investment affects human capital by 0.609 and human capital affects economic growth by 0.428. Foreign direct investment affects information and communication technology by 0.482 and information and communication technology by 0.348 affects economic growth. In the other income groups in developing countries, these two variables couldn’t have any impact on foreign direct investment on economic growth as a mediator.

Based on the results, it is recommended for developing countries to implement human capital, information and communication technology in foreign direct investment and increase economic growth by using these factors.

This paper investigates the effect of the banking structure on income inequality in Iran. For the banking structure, three indicators of assets, credits, and foreign sector have been calculated and a regression model has been estimated with the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags approach for the period of 1979-2016. The findings reveal that Iran's undeveloped financial system, which is relationship-oriented like other bank-based financial systems, has often had a counter-development function. So that among the three investigated indicators, the effect of two indicators of the structure of assets and credits of the banking system on income inequality is significantly positive and has caused an increase in income inequality. In contrast, the effect of the structure of the international transactions index of the banking system is significantly negative, which supports the positive effects of the international integration of Iran's financial system. In this way, the increase in international banking transactions can strengthen the development function of “relationship orientation” in the banking system and subsequently reduce income inequality. In contrast, the effect of the structure of the international transactions index of the banking system is significantly negative, which supports the positive effects of the international integration of Iran's financial system. In this way, the increase in international banking transactions can strengthen the development function of “relationship orientation” in the banking system and subsequently reduce income inequality.

This study aims to simulate the money creation mechanism by the banking system in the form of a dynamic system of credit economy based on macroeconomic and microeconomic parameters. For this, a computer simulation has been designed and implemented. special attentions are to the role of debt and the factors influencing its creation and its disappearance. A new expression of the money multiplier and the velocity of money are presented. The traditional method of comparing numbers is not used to display the results, but with the aim of deep and easy understanding , the results are shown in 2D,3D plots as a range of colors. According to the results, whatever the agents' income and wealth, the more marginal propensity for consuming leads to increasing their planned expenses and consequently more requests for loans and increasing the money volume. Debt volume in the system decreases with more repayments, because the higher the debt repayment rate, the brokers are required to repay a larger proportion of their overdue debts, and this leads to the disappearance of debts and a reduction in the volume of money. Increasing the repayment rate due to higher payments leads to an increase in the velocity of money.

In recent years, the effect of financial markets and especially the stock market as one of the factors of financing investment plans and projects are important.The effects of prosperity and recession of these markets on the country's economy are also considered. In the implementation of monetary policy, in fact, the existence of asymmetric effects doubles the need to pay attention to the performance of monetary shocks and accuracy in formulating and implementing policies in any economy. And policymakers in their medium- and long-term planning not only pay attention to macroeconomic goals, including the level of real output and inflation, Asymmetry considers the effects of monetary shocks on real and nominal variables in the economy as endogenous. In other words, it is considered to be influenced by factors such as the size of positive and negative monetary shocks, various inflationary conditions, and the prevalence of recession or boom in the economy.

Interest rates in the Iranian economy are constant over the years, we can not use the Taylor rule to estimate the effects of monetary policy. Therefore, we modeled the monetary policy process by using the McCallum rule of the monetary base as a representative of monetary policy. Then, by extracting monetary shocks, we interpret its effects on the economy. Finally, we used the Markov Dynamic Switching Regression (MSDR) model to estimate the effects of monetary policy shocks on stock prices. The MSDR model enables the rapid evolution of heterogeneous time series in different states. In addition, to determine the dynamic relationship between monetary policy shocks and stock prices, special attention is paid to time-varying parameters in the MSDR model.The application of monetary policy with the instrument of monetary base growth on the variables of output gap, inflation gap, exchange rate changes with quarterly data from 2005 to 2019 and using the  Maccallum Rule is investigated.Then the effect of monetary shocks on the stock price index is analyzed based on the Markov Switching Model.

By using monetary policy with monetary base tools, in the first period, the shock to the monetary base has a positive effect on the monetary base, from the second period to several periods, it has negative effects, and finally, over time, the effects of monetary shock on the positive monetary base and it is very minor.The output gap versus the monetary shock in the first period has a positive effect and the second and third periods have a reverse effect, then a positive and increasing effect, and over time the degree of impact of the output gap becomes little with the application of monetary policy. Inflation has negative and decreasing effects against changes in the monetary base in all periods, which will reach zero over time, and the effects of the monetary base on inflation over time will be very small. By implementing monetary policy with the basic monetary instrument, the exchange rate in the first periods has negative effects. Then it will have a small decreasing trend over time.Therefore, there are effects of monetary policy implementation in the early periods on the variables, and over time, the effects of floating the monetary base on other variables become minor and insignificant.Markov's test of the rotational model confirms that the Iranian stock market has followed a passive stock market relative to changes in the monetary base over the period under study. In the first and second regimes, changes in the output gap increase the stock price index. In both regimes, the output gap coefficients are significant and smaller than one.In regime one, increasing the inflation gap increases the stock price index and is statistically significant. In this regime, the reaction of the Iranian stock market to inflation is high compared to other variables, which indicates that in the recession period, the index against inflation, the index The stock price will also have a positive and increasing response, and shareholders will benefit from this price growth due to the recessionary conditions of the economy, and finally the growth of the stock price index. In regime two, the stock price index decreases as inflation increases. It can be said that if inflation expectations are combined with rumors of prosperity in a certain sector of the economy, shareholders may withdraw their capital from the stock market and invest in another field. Increasing the supply of the total stock price index decreases.The results explain that the dealing of monetary policy and monetary shocks in each time period does not have a consistent behavior and the same effect on the stock price index.The application of monetary policy in a powerful way does not affect the stock price index. The findings also indicate that after one or at most three seasons, a turnaround occurs in the state of Iran's economy. And the period between prosperity and recession and politics is constantly rotating between active and passive. Therefore, according to the results obtained in the Iranian economy, we do not see the stability and long-term sustainability of a prosperity or recession regime.

According to the results obtained in the Iranian economy in the period under review, we do not see the stability and long-term durability of a prosperity or recession regime.

Fluctuations in asset prices and the resulting uncertainty are one of the most important macroeconomic variables that affect different sectors of the economy in various ways. Therefore, this study is conducted to identify and rank financial market risks in Iran. This study was performed in two parts: qualitative and quantitative. The statistical population in the qualitative section includes the University of Professors in the field of economics in Iran, where 1010 people were selected as a statistical sample by available sampling. The statistical population in the quantitative section were professors and doctoral students in the field of economics. By random sampling method, 3030 people were selected. Data collection tools are the Delphi questionnaire and pairwise comparison questionnaire. Data analysis was performed by fuzzy Delphi and AHP methods. In the results of the qualitative section, 7 components including 44 components for bad economic uncertainty and 33 components for good economic uncertainty were identified. In the results of the quantitative section, stock index uncertainty with a weight of 0.3910.391 and inflation uncertainty with a weight of 0.2760.276 rank first and second in bad economic uncertainty. Also, economic growth uncertainty with a weight of 0.4930.493 and liberalization of financial markets with a weight of 0.3110.311 rank first and second in good economic uncertainty, respectively.

High-tech industries have a significant share in domestic and foreign production, employment, and capital market in developing economies. These industries are always considered as leading industries in products with a competitive advantage in the analysis of development and growth of countries. Therefore, In the present study, an attempt has been made to investigate the role of innovation and intellectual property in these industries' growth by using data related to the high-tech industries' product growth. For this purpose, a model using the panel data method in 11 selected Middle Eastern countries in the period 2009 to 2018 has been estimated. The dependent variable of the model is the growth of high-tech industries and its independent variables are innovation and intellectual property, infrastructure development, per capita income of employees, and foreign direct investment. The results of model estimation show that all of the mentioned independent variables have a positive and significant effect on the growth of high-tech industries..

The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of innovation and intellectual property on knowledge-based economy in the information and communication technology industry using data panel method. This was a causal study involving quarterly data from 2009 to 2018. In this study, the impact of innovation and intellectual property rights on the development of ICT industry in eleven countries from the Middle East that are structurally similar to Iran was examined. These included the UAE, Jordan, Bahrain, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Lebanon, and Egypt. The results confirmed the positive and significant impact of innovation and intellectual property on the knowledge-based economy (growth of information and communication technology industry). These results are in accordance with the research hypotheses. Also, the results of this research that were extracted and analyzed based on endogenous growth model show that innovation and intellectual property have a positive and effective role in the formation and realization of knowledge-based economy. Therefore, economic policymakers should take steps to strengthen creativity and encourage human resources to promote and develop inventions, and by enacting relevant laws and regulations to increase intellectual property rights for the benefit of inventors. This will lead to mutual growth of two factors: Innovation and intellectual property.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of financial development and tax on the size of the underground economy. The importance of this is because the large size of the underground economy of the three channels has a negative impact on the economy, first the diversion of economic data; second, the ineffectiveness and effectiveness of the state's economic policies; and third, because of the possibility of escaping Tax payments and non-compliance with legal requirements in the underground economy are in the interests of national interests, producers and households. Therefore, any policy that leads to a smaller underground economy is key. In this research, a model (TVP-FAVAR) with the aim of investigating the effect of financial development and tax evasion on the underground economy of Iran along with other related variables has been specified. For this purpose, time series data were used in the period 1350 to 1394 and two tools of instantaneous and cumulative response functions. The results of this study indicate that the underground economy's dynamics in response to the financial development shock has been a decreasing trend and increasing terms of tax evasion shock.

Iran's economy faced the problem of Coronavirus when macroeconomic variables did not show a suitable situation due to economic sanctions. Therefore, in this study, the optimal monetary policy was determined to reduce the negative effects of the shock caused by the outbreak of Coronavirus on GDP, total welfare, and employment in Iran using a social accounting matrix (SAM) and a new model of recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (RDCGE). Results showed that the adoption of an expansionary monetary policy equivalent to a 5% reduction in the legal reserve rate reduces the negative effects of shock caused by the outbreak of Coronavirus on investigated variables compared to not adopting monetary policy. Moreover, adopting an expansionary monetary policy equivalent to a 10% reduction in the legal reserve rate reduces the negative effects of shock caused by the outbreak of the Coronavirus on investigated variables more than adopting a monetary policy equivalent to a 5% reduction in the legal reserve rate. Additionally, adopting an expansionary monetary policy equivalent to a 20% reduction in the legal reserve rate reduces the negative effects of shock caused by the outbreak of Coronavirus on investigated variables more than adopting a monetary policy equivalent to a 10% reduction in the legal reserve rate. Based on this, it is suggested that the monetary authorities adopt an expansionary monetary policy under similar conditions so that commercial banks can provide facilities to households (in order to stimulate total demand and prevent the reduction of gross domestic production) and producers (in order not to lay off or adjust the workforce) to reduce the welfare of the whole society.

Happiness and happiness inequality are important issues that economists have been studying in recent years. However, studies addressing the inequality of happiness are limited, and more research is needed to shed light on its antecedents and mechanism. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between government size and happiness inequality in the Iranian economy using a threshold regression model during the period of 1974-2016. The results of the estimation of research models show that the size of the government has a threshold effect on happiness inequality. In other words, before the threshold of 13 percent of the government-to-GDP ratio, the government size has a diminutive effect on the inequality of happiness, but after passing through the threshold and increasing the government's involvement in the economy, this variable has a significant positive effect on the happiness inequality. Thus, the expansion of the size of government in the Iranian economy has exacerbated the happiness gap between the low-income and high-income classes of society. Based on the research results, it is suggested that policymakers pay attention to the threshold relationship between government size and inequality of happiness of society when implementing their policies.