nasrin ebrahimi

Climate change has led to changes in the frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial distribution of climate extremes. During the last decade (2011-2020), the average global temperature was 0.1 ± 1.1 oC higher than in the preindustrial era. Iran and especially the Urmia Lake basin is one of the most vulnerable areas to climate change. Urmia lake basin has received the special attention of policymakers and planners since it is the location of Lake Urmia, and it also holds nearly 7% of Iran's water resources. A huge program of dam construction and irrigation networks has been started in this basin in the northwest of Iran since the late 1960s. Despite the increasing attention to Lake Urmia since 1995, the water level of this lake has decreased. During the drought of 1990-2001, Lake Urmia experienced a decrease in its level without any recovery and is decreasing at an alarming rate. Therefore, it is necessary to project the future climate of the Urmia Lake basin and especially extreme precipitation based on the latest climate change models.

The CMIP6 models were used to investigate the future projection of extreme precipitation in the Lake Urmia basin. Considering the horizontal resolution, availability of daily data, and climate sensitivity, we selected five models including GFDL-ESM4, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, and UKESM1-0-LL. The horizontal resolution of all five models is 0.5o. The 25-year historical period (1990-2014) and the 25-year projection period for the near future (2026-2050) were chosen to analyze the extreme precipitation in the Urmia Lake Basin. The future projection was considered under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios. These scenarios include SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Mean bias error (MBE) and Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) were computed to evaluate the individual models and the multi-model ensemble generated by Bayesian Model Average (BMA) method. To assess extreme precipitation, we used four indices including the Number of heavy precipitation days (R10mm), the number of very heavy precipitation days R20mm), the Maximum 1-day total precipitation (Rx1day), and the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII).

The performance of five CMIP6 individual models and the multi-model ensemble in the Lake Urmia basin during the period of 1990 to 2014 was evaluated against eight ground stations. The investigation of the annual precipitation showed that this variable is underestimated in CMIP6 models in the basin averaged. The maximum and minimum bias values model was seen in Saqez station by -9.64 mm for the MRI-ESM2-0 and -0.43 mm for the UKESM1-0-LL, respectively. The highest average MBE in the Urmia Lake basin was respectively obtained for GFDL-ESM4, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, and UKESM1-0-LL models. Among the examined models, MPI-ESM1-2-HR has shown the highest efficiency among the examined individual models.Variations in the number of heavy precipitation days during the historical period (1990-2014) have distinguished three main areas for the Lake Urmia basin. The main hotspot of heavy precipitations in the Urmia Lake basin is located in the southwest of Kurdistan province with a long-term average of 25.4 days. The next hotspots are the northwest and the northeast of the basin. In the historical period (1990-2014), the precipitation intensity index Rx1day experienced considerable variability. Based on CMIP6-MME, the value of the Rx1day index in the Urmia Lake basin is estimated between a minimum of 16.3 mm and a maximum of 63.3 mm. The maximum variation of this index is seen in the southern areas of the basin, especially on the border with Iraq.

Evaluation of individual CMIP6 models showed that these models underestimated precipitation in the Lake Urmia basin during the historical period (1990-2014). The CMIP6-MME has significantly improved precipitation estimation. The results of the investigation of days with heavy and very heavy precipitation showed that the two indices R10mm and R20mm are increasing in most areas of the Lake Urmia basin by the middle of the 21st century. Trend analysis showed that the days with heavy and very heavy precipitation will increase under different SSP scenarios in most areas of the Lake Urmia basin, especially in the northern and western regions. Also, days with heavy and very heavy precipitation will have a greater contribution than normal precipitation days in the future. It is expected that the intensity of precipitation will increase in the coming decades in the Lake Urmia basin, and this increase is more for the western and northern regions than for other regions of the basin. This result may potentially increase the flood risk in Lake Urmia.

Chronic endometritis (CE) can contribute to infertility and reproductive outcome. Currently there is a lack of information about the prevalence of CE and diagnostic value of hysteroscopy in the CE in infertile women in Iran.

To determine the CE prevalence in female candidates for in-vitro fertilization (IVF) and evaluate hysteroscopy’s sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy in diagnosing CE.

This cross-sectional study enrolled90womencandidates for IVF undergoing hysteroscopy by consecutive sampling in the infertility clinic of Vali-e-Asr Hospital, Tehran, Iran from October 2019 to February 2020. Hysteroscopic features of CE were recorded, and endometrial specimens were taken for histological study. Data analysis was done using descriptive and chi-square tests and specificity, sensitivity, negative and positive predictive value were calculated.

Chronic endometritis prevalence was identified in 19 (21.1%) women by histology. A significant relationship was found between CE and vaginal discharge (P = 0.03), pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) (P = 0.01), and abnormal uterine bleeding (AUB) (P = 0.001). Sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive value (NPV and PPV), and accuracy of hysteroscopy for diagnosis of CE were 68.4%, 87.3%, 91.17%, 59.1%, and 83.3%, respectively.

Considering the good specificity, NPV, and accuracy of hysteroscopy in diagnosing CE, an endometrial biopsy can be avoided in infertile women without risk factors for CE and with normal hysteroscopy. However, it should be considered for CE diagnosis in patients with vaginal discharge, dyspareunia, PID, and positive hysteroscopy findings.

Many survival data analyses aim to assess the effect of different risk factors on survival time‎. ‎In some studies‎, ‎the survival times are correlated‎, ‎and the dependence between survival times is related to their spatial locations‎. ‎Identifying and considering the dependence structure of data is essential in survival modeling‎. ‎The copula functions are helpful tools for incorporating data dependencies‎. ‎So‎, ‎one may use these functions for modelling spatial survival data‎. ‎This paper presents a model for spatial survival data by the Gumbel-Hougaard copula function‎. ‎A two-stage estimator using a composite likelihood function is used to estimate regression and dependence parameters‎. ‎A simulation study investigates the performance of the model‎. ‎Finally‎, ‎the proposed model is applied to model a set of COVID-19 data.

The ranked set sampling method uses the ranking information of the units to provide a more representative sample of the population to the survey designers. The sampling distribution is closer to the actual distribution of the population. In this article, to ensure the effectiveness of ranked set sampling in extensive surveys conducted to prepare official statistics, we intend to use this sampling method to improve the efficiency of key estimates of household expenditure and income survey of the Statistics Center of Iran. The results show that using ranked set sampling to design household expenditure and income surveys can improve the efficiency of key estimates of the study, provided that the ranking variable used has a high correlation with the main variables of the study. Obviously, in the absence of a suitable and available variable for ranking the units, the information of the sampling frame can be used to construct a ranking variable correlated with the key variables of the survey.

In this paper, the effects of welding parameters involving tool shape, title angle, rotational speed and welding speed on the S-shape defect formation have been investigated. For this purpose friction stir welding process were done on the Al-1085 plates by cylindrical, Triangle and square pins. The welded sections were studied by metallographic, radiography and SEM methods. The results showed that the S-shape defect was formed in the 1120 rpm, 1º title angle, 160mm/min welding condition. It is believed that the higher heat input in this welding condition with low welding speed would lead to more oxidation of Aluminum and so oxide particles formation. These oxide particles precipitate in a S shape pattern during the materials transfer between Advancing Side and Retreating Side sites which leads to S-shape defect formation.

Since Iran is a regionally dispersed country, this motivates us to analyze whether or not a national fiscal policy has different effects on its provinces’ unemployment and inflation rates using a GVAR approach during 2005:q1-2016:q1 period. The results indicate that one positive standard error as national fiscal shock can significantly reduce unemployment in some provinces. These responses are similar in terms of timing but their amount is different. Also, this positive shock has a negative effect on inflation in some provinces. All responses are approximately similar in terms of timing. In Spite of this similarity, shock responses vary in terms of amount. According to the results in the framework of the models designed in this study, it is proposed that policymakers include the decentralization in the budget planning.

The national economy of most countries is made up of various regions (provinces) with different industrial composition, financial structure, trade relations, and institutional environment. Depending on these characteristics, regions may respond differently to a uniform national macroeconomic policy. Policymakers should consider these heterogeneities to achieve the national development objective. Using separate VAR models to investigate the regional effects of a uniform policy neglects the spillover effects across regions. The GVAR approach models the links between units (such as regions) using the weighted average of different macroeconomic aggregates. Since Iran is a regionally dispersed country, this motivates us to analyze whether or not a standard monetary policy has different effects on its provinceschr('39') unemployment and inflation rates using a GVAR approach during 2005q1-2016q1 period. Results indicate that one standard deviation positive monetary shock at the national level can significantly reduce unemployment in some provinces. These responses are similar in terms of timing, but their intensity is different. Also, this positive shock has a positive effect on inflation in all provinces. All responses are approximately similar in terms of timing. Despite this similarity, shock responses vary in terms of intensity.

One of the challenges at National Statistical Organizations is conducting a survey with a long questionnaire and a large amount of items. Filling out a lengthly questionnaire is time consuming and leads to problems such as increased unresponsiveness rate. Especially during critical situations such as pandemic Covid-19, this would be more challenging. A solution to encounter this difficulty is using a split questionnaire design that is more flexible and taking less time for collecting data. In this paper, we propose a split questionnaire design for Household Expenditure and Income Survey(HEIS) which is one of the most important surveys conducted annually by Statistical Center of Iran and its questionnaire is really long and time consuming to complete.

The inflation rate, which measured using consumer price index, can be separated into a combination of two persistent and temporary components. This separating is particularly important in analyzing inflation rate and policies to control it. In fact, without knowing the persistent component of inflation, called core inflation, quantitative targeting of inflation may not be accurate. Core inflation as a more persistent component can be measured stripping out the transitory movements in prices. The understanding of the behavior of the national core inflation rate series needs to understand provincial core inflation since the construction of the former is based on the provincial series. So, the purpose of this paper is the estimation of provincial and national core inflation in Iran. Core inflation is unobservable variable, so it estimated using Space State Model and Kalman Filter. Results show that average core inflation in all of the provinces, as well as Iran, is less than average underlying inflation. The standard deviation of core inflation in some provinces is more than underlying inflation. While core inflation in other provinces, as well as Iran, has more standard deviation as compared to underlying inflation.

The purpose of this study was to identify factors affecting the employees' invisibility in the light message of Khuzestan province.The type of research is applied in terms of purpose and in the type of method is a descriptive survey. The statistical population of this research includes employees of Payame Noor University of Khuzestan, which is 745 people and 227 people were selected by multi-stage random sampling method. ToolThe data was collected by a questionnaire whose factual validity was confirmed by management professorsIts reliability has been calculated and validated using the Cronbach Alpha coefficient.Friedman test has been used to analyze the information from structural equations using the LISREL software and for ranking the factors influencing employee invisibility. The results show that there are six factors; organizational discrimination and injustice, job insecurity, inappropriateness, decision-making style, reward and appreciation, and the system for monitoring and controlling employees' invisibility. Also, among the six identified factors, the factor of injustice and organizational discrimination has a greater impact than other factors.

Dalan and Kangan formations hosting major gas reservoirs in Persian Gulf Basin, are compartmentalized due to the intense facies and diagenetic changes in various scales. This means that the petroleum accumulation has been segregated into a number of individual fluid/pressure compartments. In this research by studying the sedimentology of Dalan and Kangan formations in one of the fields in the central part of the Persian Gulf, 11 microfacies related to 6 facies zone have been recognized. Based on petrographic studies, diagenetic processes affected these formations are micritization, dolomitization, cementation, stylolitization, compaction and dissolution. Then, according to sedimentological, porosity and permeability and formation pressure data, intra reservoir barriers have been identified and their potential as dynamic or static barriers have been evaluated. The results of this study show that in central part of Persian Gulf, there are 5 barriers in these formations that have the dynamic potential for reservoir compartmentalization. Anhydrite cements and chemical compaction processes are the main factors controlling pore destruction in these dynamic barriers. These barriers caused high pressure in upper Kangan and lower section of upper Dalan member. Determined dynamic barriers will have a fundamental role in field production patterns in different horizons

Aims and scope: Otitis media (OM) is a common disease among children. Various factors, including bacteria and viruses are the cause of OM. The most common bacterial pathogens that can cause OM are Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, Moraxella catarrhalis and Streptococcus pyogenes. Recently, Alloiococcus otitidis is known as one of the causes of OM. For some reasons such as fastidious growth and difficulty in sampling, few studies have been completed on this bacterium. The aim of this study was comparison of culture and multiplex PCR in detection of fastidious bacterial pathogens associated with otitis media.
Material & In this descriptive studies, during a period of 5 month from March 2013 to July 2014, 50 middle ear discharge specimens were collected from patients suspected with otitis media in Amir-Alam Hospital. Samples were assessed by culture and multiplex PCR method.
In the study, 3 strains of Alloiococcus otitidis (6%), 3 strains of Haemophilus influenzae (6%) and 1 strain of Moraxella catarrhalis (2%) were isolated by culture. Also, by multiplex PCR method 25 Alloiococcus otitidis (50%), 28 Haemophilus influenzae (56%) and 11 Moraxella catarrhalis (22%) were detected in the samples.
Identifying fastidious bacteria with culture method is difficult, but multiplex PCR method is more accurate, faster and more sensitive of culture method and biochemical tests and can be done quickly.

Streptococcus pneumoniaeis is the most frequent cause of bacterial meningitis, community-acquired bacterial pneumonia and acute otitis media (AOM). Eighty percent of children have at least once diagnosed by the three years of age. This study was conducted to determine the frequency of patients with Streptococcus pneumoniaein diagnosed with acute middle ear infections and antibiotic susceptibility patterns of this microorganism.
Middle ear discharge specimens were collected from 60 patients with acute otitis media during a period of 8 months, at Amir Alam Hospital (Tehran). Specimens were assessed for Streptococcus pneumonia by microscopic examination and culture. The antibiotic susceptibility test was performed by Kirby-Bauer disk diffusion method according to CLSI (clinical and laboratory standard institute) criteria. Antibiotics included tetracycline,erythromycin,vancomycin,chloramphenicol, amoxycilinclavulanate,Rifampine, ,ciprofloxacin, Cefixime,Trimethoprim䫩. Identification and confirmation of isolates were performed by PCR and culture.
Thirty three/ 60 and 27/60 of specimen were belong to men and women, respectively. Eight/ 60 tested specimens were confirmed as Streptococcus pneumonia. The sensitivity of isolated Streptococcus pneumoniae to different antibiotics was tested and the results were as following: tetracycline (56%), erythromycin (67%), vancomycin (22%), chloramphenicol (56%), and amoxycilin clavulanate (22%), Rifampine (44.4%), ciprofloxacin (56%), Cefixime (100%) Trimethoprim䫩 (77.8%).
Streptococcus pneumonia is the main cause for AOM. According to the emergence of resistant strains of Streptococcus pneumonia to conventional antibiotic therapy, especially beta-lactam antibiotics and erythromycin, continuous surveillance is needed to determine full picture of antibiotic susceptibility in patients with AOM.

From environmental criminologists prospective, the place of crime occurrence and their place dependency structure are among the most important constituents of crimes. Therefore the analysis of such data required criminological knowledge and also use of spatial statistics methods in field of crime data. By the help of spatial statistics, we can establish relation between different quantity of a variant with respect to distance and the direction of their alignments to each other. By recognition of models dominating on place of crime occurrence, steps can be taken to improve the main tasks of police. Spatial statistics methods in many fields have enjoyed a special position and in each topic in addition to analytical methods, special software for that topic is designed. In this research first statistical methods related to spatial analysis of reviewed crime data and in continuation software that can be used in statistical analysis of crime such as crime stat, Arc GIS and finally geoR are introduced.

In Iran vaccination with Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) is performed on all newborns within the first days of life for prevention of tuberculosis. It is a live attenuated vaccine and produced from genetically different vaccine strains of Mycobacterium bovis. This vaccine is safe but local adverse reactions such as administration site abscess and lymphadenitis occur in some healthy children vaccinated with this vaccine as the most common side effect of BCG vaccination. Disseminated BCG infections are very rare in immunocompetent children but lymphadenitis is very common in Iran and other countries. It is indicated that the vaccine strain and it’s genetically variations are correlated with these side effects. Therefore, in this study we aimed to analyze the genetic characterizations of vaccine strains used in Iran.

Thirty infants showing lymphadenitis induced by BCG vaccination were chosen for this study. After aspiration from the lesions, they were subjected to acid fast staining and culture on Lowenstein Jensen medium. Subsequently, DNA was extracted from samples using Phenol–chloroform method. The genus of the isolates was characterized by primer for 16sRNA gene. Then using RD1, RD14 and DU1 primers and in the next step RD9, RD4Deleted, RD4Present and RD1Deleted primers the species and strains of the isolates were characterized.

Performing 16sRNA PCR, all 30 samples of acid fast bacilli were confirmed as Mycobacterium genus. Then using RD1, RD14, DU1, RD9, RD4 Deleted, RD4 Present and RD1 Deleted primers all isolates were detected as Mycobacterium bovis BCG strain Pasteur.

In this study all of the strains isolated from the patients were detected as Mycobacterium bovis BCG strain Pasteur. Therefore, the other possible factors causing BCG complications including BCG overdose, faulty intradermal technique, and disturbance of cellular immunity should be considered as the other risk factors of causing lesions.

Despite the similar performance of Bazaar1 in different cities of Iran, there are some the skeletal differences between markets in different climates. The Bazaar roof protects customers against natural events in any climate. The ceiling height and the sitting down of the Bazaar`s floor are determined based on the need for air circulation and movement in various climates. Hence, combination of all the factors would shape the market. Natural ventilation and cooling air are one of the major factors determining the market shape in hot and dry areas. This study aims to analyze the function of natural ventilation concerning direct and indirect effective elements and their impacts on market shape in hot and dry city-Shiraz. For this purpose, Vakil Bazaar is chosen. In this research, a combination of descriptive and case methods are applied analytically, a field which determines the wind and air function based on the dominant wind and other elements affecting the natural ventilation of Shiraz` Vakil Bazaar that in the end achieve factors to providing favorable comfort in this place.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between hope and academic success, which was conducted on Shahid Beheshti University students studying in undergraduate and post-graduate in three branches, Human Science, Technical-Engineering and Basic Sciences. A sample of 381 individuals was selected by Ratio Stratified random Sampling method. The tool of collecting data was the standard questionnaire “Adults hope scale in specific areas”. T test, Sheffe test, analysis of variance, co-relation coefficient and regression were used to analyzed the data. According to the results of this research there was a significant relationship between the two factors: hope and academic success. Also there was a significant relationship between students hope in different phases with their academic field and academic period. There was also significant relationship between hope in familial area as well as academic phase and academic success, but in other areas of hope there were no significant relationships. Finally, the results indicated that among six areas of hope, hope in the academic area had the highest relationship with academic success.