ramtin joolaie

Food security means everyone's access to sufficient, healthy, and nutritious food. In rural areas, livelihood and economy are based on agriculture and food production, so the importance of food security becomes twofold. Providing food security for society is one of the major goals of socio-economic planning, and malnutrition is considered an inhibiting force in the process of national development. Measuring food security scientifically is a calculated method to solve food and nutrition problems and a defined framework for development planning and management. Various methods have been used to estimate the food security situation, one of these methods is the use of Engel buffer index. In this method, the ratio of non-food expenses to total household expenses (food expenses plus non-food expenses) is calculated and used as an index of food security. The larger the value of this ratio is, it is a sign that the household has a better food security situation. In addition to measuring the food security situation, one of the important issues in this regard is the estimation of factors affecting the value of the food security index. Considering the importance of these two issues, this research was carried out with two main goals, including measuring the food security situation in rural areas of Iran using the Engel index and investigating the factors affecting the value of this index.

Methods and Materials: 

The necessary data for this research are secondary data extracted from the statistical yearbooks of Statistical Center Iran (SCI). To estimate the Engel index, the ratio of food expenses to the total expenses of rural households between 1974 and 2022 was calculated. To achieve the goals of the research and to investigate the factors affecting food security during the concerned period, based on the review of sources, a set of accessible variables was selected within Equation (1) as follows:BEt = ꞵ0 + ꞵ1LnFD + ꞵ2LnGDPPC + ꞵ3LnIMPORT + ꞵ4INFR + ꞵ5DUMMY (1)In Equation (1), BE is the Buffer Engel as the food security index of rural areas, FD is the Financial Development index, GDPPC is the Gross Domestic Product Per Capita, IMPORT is the IMPORT of the agricultural sector, INFR is the INFlation Rate and DUMMY is the dummy variable of the Iran-Iraq war. EViews10 and Excel software were used to achieve the research objectives and evaluate the relationship between the Buffer Engel and the influencing variables using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method.

Buffer Engel index ranged from (minimum) 44 to (maximum) 62.98 percent. The value of this index is between 0 and 100, the larger it means that a larger share of household expenses is spent on non-food expenses; therefore, in case of food security problems such as rapid increases in the price of food items, rural households can divert their non-food expenses to the food items and as a result, food security increases; from 1985, due to the problems and consequences of the war with the neighboring country until 1988, the Buffer Engel decreased; then, from that year onwards, with the end of the war, an upward trend is observed until 2009 and from 2010 to 2013, due to political problems and increased sanctions, we have seen that the Buffer Engel index has decreased again. Increasing the financial development index improves and enhances the food security of rural households. GDP per capita had a significantly positive effect on the Buffer Engel index. It showed that with the increase in per capita income, the purchasing power of the rural community increased the access to food in rural areas. The study results indicated a significantly positive impact of imports on food security in rural areas. In addition, the results of the estimated model showed a significantly negative impact of the inflation rate on food security in rural areas. Finally, the variable of war had a significantly negative impact on food security in rural areas during 1980-1988.

Conclusion and Suggestions: 

Conducting food security studies in rural areas, especially at the national level, is very challenging and comes with special difficulties. Despite this, it is very necessary to conduct such studies to make policies about food security and the rural economy. In this study, the results were consistent with the existing theories about food security. Based on the obtained results, it is suggested that the necessary policies are designed and implemented for financial development of rural areas, rapid economic growth, inflation control, prevention of political and military tensions, and facilitation of imports in certain cases where the price of consumer goods have increased sharply and the production of these goods might not be possible in the country in the short term.

Price fluctuations in the market of agricultural products, price transfer and then the market margin have been one of the constant challenges of the agricultural sector. How price shocks are transmitted in the commodity supply chain affects the welfare of producers, marketing agents, and consumers. How prices affect different markets, as well as the symmetrical or asymmetrical effects of price changes can be considered important issues in the analysis of business policies. The existence of symmetry in the market means the complete transfer of price changes at one level of the market to other levels, and asymmetry occurs when the price increase (decrease) is transferred faster than the price decrease (increase). The purpose of this study was to determine the asymmetry of prices in the Iranian red meat market and also to measure the monopoly in this market as one of the possible factors of price asymmetry.

In this study, using monthly data during the years 2013-2018, the price symmetry in the import market of red meat in Iran was investigated using Johansen-Juselius technique and estimation of error correction model. Also, using the annual data of 2001-2018, the degree of monopoly in this market was evaluated using Herfindahl-Hirschman index.

The results showed that there is at most a long-term relationship between the two variables of imported and domestic prices of red meat. Also, the results of the Granger causality test indicate the existence of a causal relationship between these two variables, and the estimation of the price transfer pattern from the imported price to the domestic price shows the symmetry of the price transfer, both in the short term and in the long term, so that the effect The rise and fall of imported prices lasts up to three months in the domestic market. Also, the results of Herfindahl- Hirschman index during the years 2010-2017 were higher than 1800 units, which indicates the state of high concentration in the red meat import market.

According to the results, because the price transfer was symmetrical in the short and long term, the government's performance in the field of red meat imports and supporting the domestic consumer has not been very successful. Also, the examination of the monopoly in this market shows the high concentration and dominance of the two countries Brazil and the United Arab Emirates in the Iranian red meat import market. Therefore, it is suggested that with the increase in the number of countries that are parties to the transaction, the exclusive status will become weaker so that in the event of political problems and international tensions, the amount of welfare damage to the people will be reduced.

 Food is one of the fundamental needs of human society and an integral part of people's lives, and its provision lies in the category of food security. Food security is one of the criteria and tools of human development. Human development can simultaneously be considered both as a goal and as a path of national development and economic growth. Food security in the scientific sense is a calculated method for solving food and nutrition problems and a defined framework for development planning and management. Food security exists when all people have economic and physical access to healthy, sufficient and nutritious food on all days, and the accessible food also provides the needs of a nutritional diet compatible with their taste for a healthy and active life. All definitions provided. For food security, which has two basic aspects, physical access can be defined as the availability of food in the market or more generally in the environment. Meanwhile, economic access is defined as the availability of sufficient purchasing power to buy food in the market or access to production factors to produce food using the natural environment, which is called access in a nutshell. The extent of the concept of food security is such that it is determined by the interaction of a range of biological, economic, social, agricultural and physical factors, and it requires a sufficient supply of food at the macro level and fair distribution in order to reach all people. It should also be stated that providing food security depends on the participation of all socio-economic parts. Also, by improving and increasing the quality of food production, the agricultural sector has a decisive and essential role in creating food security. In this regard, the aim of the current research is to evaluate food security in the first to sixth five-year plans of 1404 vision development and its relationship with the inequality of income distribution in rural areas of Iran.

 In order to achieve the goal of the research, the Engel’s buffer index was calculated as a substitute for food security index and was analyzed separately in the five-year development plans. In this regard, the required data include food expenses, non-food expenses, total expenses of rural households, Gini coefficient, financial development index, trade liberalization index, gross domestic growth and gross domestic product per capita from the Central Bank, Statistics Center Iran and the World Bank were collected and calculated for the period 1353-1401. Finally, the relationship between the Engel buffer index and the variables of the Gini coefficient, GDP, financial development index and trade liberalization index was investigated with the correlation coefficient.

 Based on the results, the Engel’s buffer index has increased in some periods and decreased in others. The reason for the increase or decreases in food security in different periods may be due to several factors, including climate changes, economic crises, war and political changes. Dependence of agricultural production to the occurrence of pests and diseases and the destruction of natural resources such as soil and water. Also, in general, the share of food expenses of rural households has decreased in the period under review. During the period under review, rural households spend a relatively smaller share of their income on buying food because with an increase in income, the household can increase its food consumption to a certain extent. According to the fact that rural households spend a smaller share of their income on buying food in proportion to the increase in income, we can conclude that we are witnessing an improvement in the food security situation in rural households in the mentioned period. In addition, the amount of Engel’s buffer is increasing during the development plans until the fourth plan and after that it decreases due to political problems and sanctions. In general, the highest value of food security in rural areas is related to the fourth program with a score of 62 and the lowest is related to the first program with a score of 51. Also, based on the results of the correlation coefficient and the studied variables, the Engel’s buffer index has a positive and significant relationship with the financial development index and a negative and significant relationship with the Gini coefficient and trade liberalization index. Also, no significant relationship was found between the Engel’s buffer index and the growth of GDP and GDP per capita in the period under review.

 Financial development can increase agricultural production and access to financial resources for farmers. Based on the positive relationship between the financial development index and the Engel’s buffer, it can be concluded that financial development by creating more opportunities for rural and agricultural businesses can improve production and the quality of the products of rural communities. In addition, the growth of financial development index has a direct impact on the possibility of creating employment and creating opportunities for entrepreneurship, generating new sources of income and reducing unemployment. Considering the negativity and significance of the two variables of Gini coefficient and trade liberalization, the increase of Gini coefficient leads to the decrease of fair distribution of wealth in the society. On the other hand, the growth of the Gini coefficient can lead to neglecting the basic needs of the deprived sections of the society. Also, the opening of foreign markets can threaten domestic production and negatively affect the ability to export and import goods. The impact two variables of GDP growth and GDP per capita on Engel’s index were not significant in the studied period.

 Occurrence of drought and reduction of rainfall in the future will limit the cultivation of irrigated crops. Thus, it is probable that a part of the present irrigated lands and orchards of Iran may be unavailable for the cultivation of irrigated crops, but it is possible to cultivate rainfed crops in these lands. However, the available potential for cultivation of rainfed crops with respect to the soil type, climate and other factors is not known. Limited water resources, on the one hand, and the growing population along with increasing the need to produce food, on the other, make it necessary to have a comprehensive, practical and accurate program. Therefore, research on this issue is essential. In this study, production potential of rainfed wheat (Triticum aestivum), barley  (Hordeum vulgare L.), chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.), lentil (Lens culinaris Medik) and canola (Brassica napus)  in irrigated lands (fields and orchards) was modeled.

  Weather stations (position and distribution), long-term weather data (15 to 30 years), HC27 soil map, crop management data plant parameters were used to determine the yield in this study using SSM-iCrop2 model. In each zone, the yield was determined and compared with the actual data. In other words, the model output were compared with the actual current rainfed yields of each province and then it was determined that whether the model precision was sufficient for this study. Other calculations (determining the average yield of provinces) and generation of maps were done using ArcGIS V.10.2. The yield obtained by farmers in these lands was considered as 50 and 70 percent of yield potential. Also, the yields were categorized into four classes of excellent, good, medium and non-suitable. This classification is based on economic- agronomic profit of crop harvest.

 The results of this study showed that the conditions of rainfed production in each province of the country is suitable/appropriate for some crops and unsuitable/inappropriate for some other. In case the yield of farmers reached 70 percent of yield potential by optimum management, all provinces will be classified into the upper average group (3, 18 and 10 provinces in excellent, good and medium groups) for wheat. For barley 30 (3, 10 and 17 provinces in excellent, good and medium groups), for chickpea 30 (3, 6 and 21 provinces in excellent, good and medium groups), for lentil 31 (13 and 18 and 10 provinces in good and medium groups) and for canola 30 (4, 5 and 21 provinces in excellent, good and medium groups) provinces will be placed in the upper average group. Based on 70 percent of yield potential of canola, barley and chickpea, only on province is placed in non-suitable group. On the other hand, in case the yield of farmers reaches 50 percent of yield potential due to improper management, for wheat 30 (2, 2 and 26 provinces in excellent, good and medium groups), for barley 28 (4 and 24 provinces in good and medium groups), for chickpea 18 (4 and 14 provinces in good and medium groups), for lentil 28 (3 and 10 provinces in good and medium groups) and for canola 25 (5 and 20 provinces in good and medium groups) will be classified into the upper average group. Based on 50 percent of yield potential of rainfed wheat, barley, canola, chickpea and lentil, 1, 3, 6, 13 and 3 provinces were placed in non-suitable group, respectively.

 According to the results of this study, a major part of the provinces will be placed in medium and non-suitable groups in case of improper management, and agricultural productions will not satisfy the needs of the country. Therefore, it is necessary to pay a special attention to agronomic management of rainfed crops, as the agricultural production of the country will not be acceptable unless 70 percent of yield potential is achieved.

Although the economic growth of Iran is not completely reliant on agricultural production but has been one of the most prominent drivers of the economy of Iran. Without removing the obstacles to development in this sector, it cannot be expected that other economic sectors of the country will achieve development. Since the development of the agricultural sector inevitably leads to the massive consumption of energy, this study aims to investigate the effects of oil derivatives consumption (OILC), electricity consumption (ELC), gas consumption (GASC), CO2 emissions, and agricultural exports (AGexp) on agricultural economic growth (AEG) in Iran.

In this regard, the time-series data from 1980 to 2018 was used to analyze the short-run and long-run relationships among studied variables using Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) modeling and different tests associated with it.

The ARDL model results indicate that GASC and OILC positively affect AEG in the long run, while CO2 has a negative effect in the short run. Additionally, AGEX and ELC do not significantly affect the dependent variable. Further results show that AGexp, OILC, and GASC increase AGE by 0.115%, 0.499%, and 0.278%, respectively, in the long run, while CO2 and ELC do not significantly affect AGE. Suggestion: Implementing policies such as Customization of production according to global standards, creating efficient and appropriate administrative structures for export affairs, and investing export earnings in the agricultural sector can be of interest to policymakers. On the other hand, considering that the most influential factor preventing energy consumption in the agricultural sector is the reduction of the cultivated area, applying policies that simultaneously reduce the cultivated area and increase productivity can achieve environmental goals and agricultural development to help.

Background and Goal:

 Cotton is one of the industrial crops whose product is used and exploited in various industries and provides many products for human life. Cotton fibers are used in the textile industry, its grains in the lubricant industry, and its additives, including flour and pulp, in animal feed. The area under cotton cultivation in 2018 is about 31.8 million hectares in the world and 36 thousand hectares in Afghanistan, 1440 hectares in Baghlan Afghanistan province. Cotton in Baghlan province ranks sixth among irrigated crops and first among industrial crops in terms of cultivated area. Since 1978, the area of this crop in Baghlan province has decreased by about 80%. Therefore, an economic investigation of cotton production in Baghlan province of Afghanistan was conducted in this study.

The statistical population of this study was cotton growers in Baghlan province of Afghanistan. 132 samples were selected using stratified random sampling method. In this study, in order to economically evaluate cotton production, economic evaluation indicators including total income, total cost, gross return, profit, return on investment, profit to cost ratio and cost of the product were examined, as well as the optimal amount of input consumption. Production lines were also specified through the production function.

The results of the economic survey indicators of cotton production in Baghlan province of Afghanistan show that the average cotton yield is 3917 kg / ha, the average income is 213055 AFN, the average cost of production is 118075 AFN and the average profit is 94980 AFN. And the return on investment is 81.9% per hectare. The results of cost-benefit (B/C) analysis of cotton production also show that the average income per Afghan spent on cotton production is 1.8 AFN. The production function estimation results also show that the transcendental production function form is the superior form and most of the coefficients are significant. And insecticides have a negative effect on production.

In general, it can be said that cotton cultivation in Baghlan province of Afghanistan is a profitable activity and the consumption of all production inputs except insecticides and herbicides is optimal. Therefore, in order to increase the income of farmers in Baghlan province, it is suggested appropriate planning and policy to develop the area under cotton and the optimal use of insecticides and herbicides through price policies as well as through promotional activities.

This research is aiming to investigate land use changing in Nowshahr County. Urban developing and shortage of land supplying and due to increasing in land demanding make several difficulties for sustainable developing for the city and different consequences for the environment too. This research with using game theory approach is going to evaluate rational behavior of each player in this matter of problem. Since different parties with conflicting interests make a social situation which each player choices will affect other player outcome, game theory would be a useful method to investigate this issues. In this research farmer and government are the two player who will make choices. This social situation proposed as a prisoner dilemma game and the result shows that game theory is reliable method for investigating this kind of problems. The results shows if government is going to prevent land use changing they should use encouragement policies for farmers, such as paying subsidies in addition to Legal barrier in otherwise farmers will have much powerful Motivation to changing land use. This research suggests Amount of 34155 million IRR per hectare in the form of various policies should be paid to farmers.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the agriculture sustainability and determine the cultivation pattern in the Caspian temperate climate by the implementation of water consumption reduction policies (price, quota and a combination of the two) based on five scenarios of economic, environmental, social, and equal and experts' opinion preferences. The required information including documentary and field data from the production cost questionnaire and face-to-face interviews with farmers were obtained in the 2019-2020 crop year. The questionnaire and interviews with experts were used to calculate the weights of sustainability criteria and sub-criteria. In order to achieve the goals of the study, Positive Mathematical Programming method and Analytic Hierarchy Process were used. Based on the average opinion of experts used in this study, economic, social and environmental weights criteria in sustainability were calculated to be 0.453, 0.232 and 0.315, respectively. Also, the cultivation pattern will change based on the implementation of water consumption reduction policies. According to the economic and environmental sub-criteria, a 30% water quota policy and according to the social sub-criteria, a 50% price increase policy will lead to agriculture sustainability and optimal water consumption at the same time. In addition, to improve the pattern of water consumption in the agricultural sector, in the city of Turkmen as a representative of the Caspian temperate climate, a policy to reduce the volume of water use by 30% is proposed by applying policies (price, quotas and a combination of the two) in all preferential scenarios except the social preference. In the social preference scenario, a 50% increase in the water price is proposed. In the other words, there is an opposition between economic and environmental sustainability and social sustainability when implementing water consumption reduction policies And there must be an exchange between them..

The importance of the market for agricultural products is as important as the production of the product. However, marketing has always been one of the major problems of smallholder and family farmers. The present descriptive survey research has investigated the marketing efficiency of agricultural products of rural small family farms. The study population included 2000 family farmers in Basht county in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad provinces. Using the Georgian and Morgan table, 322 of them were studied by random cluster sampling. A questionnaire was used to collect information, the validity of which was confirmed by referring to university professors, and its reliability was confirmed by Cronbach's alpha coefficient. The results showed that the marketing efficiency of family farm agricultural products is equal to 2.5. In other words, one unit increase in product costs, 2.5 units in price increase, which is to the benefit of the producer and to the detriment of the consumer. However, with increasing levels of education, annual agricultural income, number of workers, local infrastructure services, and financial services, the marketing efficiency of products increases. Also, increasing in size of the owned land is inversely related to the numerical value of marketing efficiency. In other words, as the size of owned land increases, the numerical value of marketing efficiency decreases. With increasing in the annual cost of agriculture, the amount of marketing efficiency decreases. The results showed that the marketing efficiency of agricultural products of literate farmers as well as farmers with arable land size more than 1.5 hectares was higher than other farmers. In sum, only 0.3% of farmers had marketing with the desired efficiency (equal to one), and the highest efficiency was related to the path of producers to wholesalers. Establishing marketing cooperatives and promoting a suitable cultivation pattern are among the suggestions of the present study to increase the marketing efficiency of agricultural products.

This study aimed to evaluate the Factors Affecting the Technical Efficiency of Agricultural Production Cooperatives in Golestan Province by using the data envelopment analysis method with a product-oriented approach and constant and variable returns to scale. The required data was obtained in the field and by completing a questionnaire and interviewing the managers of 36 agricultural production cooperatives active in Golestan province in 2020. To evaluate the technical efficiency, the Tobit regression model has also been used to investigate the factors affecting performance. The results show that the average technical efficiency of the surveyed cooperatives under the conditions of fixed returns and variable returns to the scale is almost equal; Therefore, agricultural production cooperatives in Golestan province are faced with a high level of scale efficiency. The results show that 69% of companies have fixed returns, 25% have descending returns and 6% have upward returns to the scale of production. The results of the study of factors affecting technical efficiency also indicate that the age variable has a negative and significant effect on performance. Also, the asset variable has a positive and significant effect on efficiency. The average values of technical and managerial efficiency show that it is possible to increase the output by 13% with the same amount of input. It is necessary to increase the efficiency of production cooperatives by supporting young people and using them in the field of production and providing the necessary funds for companies.

Determination of the cropping pattern and optimal combination of crops by diversification of cultivation, as an approach to reduce income risk given the economic issues and resources. Income risk as combination of price and performance risks is one of the most important risks for farmers. In this study optimal cropping pattern of crops was determined to reduce income risk by applying risk and return measures in Gorgan County in 2018. For this purpose, the diversification-consistent DEA model based on directional-distance criterion was used. The results showed that 0.05 and 11 percent decreases, respectively, in the risk measures of the coefficient of variation and conditional value at risk. Also, a 24 percent increase of the expected profit measure in the optimal cropping pattern compared to the current pattern. Furthermore, the share of more profitable crops such as medium and long rice grain with high quality and rapeseed increased in the optimal cropping pattern and share of crops such as wheat and potatoes decreased. Due to the 60 percent share of medium and long rice grain with high quality in the optimal pattern, it is recommended to use tools such as income insurance and compensating for the development of rice cultivation in the region.

Since the 2009 Earth Summit, the importance of sustainability in order to protect the environment, cropping systems and food security has been emphasized as part of sustainability. In this regard, the present study was conducted to evaluate the relationship between food insecurity and agricultural sustainability in Gorgan County in the 2019-2020 year.

Data was collected based on two types of questionnaires of farmers and specialists (for weighting criteria and sub-criteria of sustainability). The coping strategy index was used to measure food security and analytical hierarchy process was used to measure agricultural sustainability. Pearson correlation coefficient was used to evaluate the relationship between food insecurity and agricultural sustainability.

Based on the aggregated sustainability criterion, North Esterabad with a weight of 0.236 was selected as the most sustainable village. Ghorogh, Roshanabad, Anjirab and South Esterabad villages with weights of 0.199, 0.197, 0.195 and 0.173 are in the next priorities. According to the environmental criterion, South Esterabad with a score of 0.216, according to the economic criterion, North Esterabad with a score of 0.249 and according to the social criteria, Roshanabad with a score of 0.204 had the highest level of sustainability. Also, according to the coping strategy index, 14 households (4.67%) had food security, 211 households (70.33%) had poor food insecurity, 54 households (18%) had moderate food insecurity and 21 households (7 %) Experience severe food insecurity. There is also a strong negative correlation between food insecurity and overall, economic and environmental sustainability. Suggestion: Given the importance of agricultural sustainability in improving food security, it is suggested that policymakers design and implement policies in order to improve economics, social and environmental sustainability that have negative effects on food insecurity.

Water limitation is one of the most preventing factor of Agricultural production, so it is essential to research on sustainable management of water resources and choosing an optimal strategy for the best use of this input. One of the most effective demand management tools that regulates water consumption patterns in the agricultural sector is the reform of the pricing system based on the economic value of water. The characteristics of each region in terms of availability of water, type of water resources, types of activities and cultivated products make that the farmers' reaction to price changes in the different regions not be the same. In this study, in order to the optimal management of water resources in Gorganrud-Gharesu basin, we estimate the total demand function of irrigation water for this transboundary Basin. The management of a transboundary Basin due to the existing of multiple stakeholders with different objectives and utilities, is one of the most important challenges of water resources management which has received little attention due to its wide dimension.

To this end, by applying the time series data (1999-2015) and the application of the evaluating the performance of active firms in agricultural sector method, first, the linear model of irrigation water demand function for each of the beneficiary provinces (Golestan, Semnan and Northern Khorasan) are estimated in the form of routine actions. Then, by considering the actual values of other factors affecting demand (other than the price factor) in the model, the short-term water demand function for each province is extracted; and finally, through the horizontal summation of the extracted functions, the aggregate demand function of the total water of the basin is estimated.

The results of the estimation of agricultural water demand function of each province indicate that there is a negative and significant relationship between agricultural water price and its consumption, so if the price of water in each province increases by 1%, the amount of water demand in Golestan, Semnan and Northern Khorasan provinces is decreased by 0.17%, 0.33% and 0.26%, respectively. Similarly, the results of aggregate water demand function also confirm the inverse relationship between water price and the amount of water demand in the agricultural sector; so if the price of water in the region increases by one percent, the water demand of the beneficiary provinces is reduced by 0.49% on average.

In order to investigating the reaction of farmers in the area to changes the price of irrigation water, the price elasticity of demand was calculated. Given that the calculated elasticity is smaller than one, so pricing policies cannot alone be an important factor in controlling the excessive use of this valuable resource. In this way, holding promotional classes in order to raise awareness of the farmers about the fact that water is valuable and economic commodities can be effective in changing the cropping pattern, adapting the irrigation method to the Conditions of water, soil and plant's actual requirements and improving irrigation efficiency.

As for the key role of the agricultural sector in providing food to the human being, the proper utilization of soil and water resources is necessary. To maintain sustainability in the growth rate of agricultural production and saving vital environmental elements from damages done by excess use of chemical inputs, an appropriate price policy of chemical inputs is essential. Therefore, in this research, an attempt is made to quantify the effects of chemical inputs price policy on cropping patterns and consumption of these inputs. For this research 4, price scenarios including 50%, 100%, 200%, and 500% increase in prices of chemical inputs are used. Both primary and secondary data were utilized. in this research Results showed that the gross margin of farmers under all 4, scenario decreases, the area under crops that used more fertilizers and pesticides reduced and that of those consume lesser amounts of chemicals and fertilizers increased. Suggestion: As the gross margin of farmers decreases by the implementation of these scenarios to encourage them to implement price policies especially policies of increasing prices of chemical inputs by 200% and 500% providing fiscal as well as the technical incentive to the farmers is essential.

Sustainability of water resources has the most important role in the sustainability of agricultural systems. In this study,  positive mathematical programming was applied in 2018-19 to evaluate the sustainability of water resources and to determine the cropping pattern in Golestan province based on water demand management policies, i.e. water price increase by 50% and 100%, and reducing water quota by 10% and 20%. First, according to water price increases and water quota policy scenarios, the cropping pattern was evaluated in this area. Then, by using the sustainability indicators such as gross margin (GM), water consumption, economic efficiency, and labor efficiency the sustainability of water resources was calculated. Based on water price increases by 50% and 100%, water consumption and GM decrease by, respectively, (2.72% and 5.44%) and (5.06% and 9.99%). Also, based on water quota policy of 10% and 20% reduction, water consumption and GM decrease by, respectively, (8.9% and 11.56%) and (0.54% and 1.75%). In addition, GM per unit of water in agricultural sector decreases by 2.41% and 4.81% in response to to water price increase by 50% and 100%, respectively, and in case of 10% and 20% reductiion in water quota policy, it increases by, respectively, 9.17% and 11.09%. Water price increase by 50% and 100% and water quota reduction by 10% and 20%, increase water labor efficiency by, respectively, (0.78% and 1.6%) and (2.6% and 5.8%). Based on the result, if the government is going to increase water sustainability by using demand management policies, the water quota policy is more efficient. Also, the government should support farmers by direct payments to compensate for their lost profits.It is also recommended that irrigation methods with high efficiency be employed.

Water as the most scare input in the production of agricultural products is not only a limiting factor for agricultural activities, but also is obstacle to other economic and social activities. Water supply of different sectors faces a lot of constraints with increasing population and development in different dimensions and rising standards of living. Therefore, appropriate policies should be used to manage water demand. One of these policies is the pricing of water resources in different ways in the agricultural sector. Investigation of internal studies on water valuation shows that there is a great difference between the economic value of water and paying farmers for water. Water pricing policies based on the economic value of water can be effective in allocation and optimal use of water. Therefore, it is necessary to do various studies in order to apply appropriate policies to the climatic conditions of different regions. Pricing policies in different parts of the country in most cases are used only by area pricing. Due to the problem of water crisis, the growing demand, and the gap between water supply and demand, area-based pricing method does not provide sufficient incentives for optimal use of agricultural water. Therefore, this study examines the different methods of water pricing such as area pricing, volumetric pricing and combination of both. Therefore, this study examines the optimal consumption of water resources for the purpose of water and soil conservation in Gonbad-e-Kavous County, Golestan province. This syudy considered the volumetric pricing and composition of volumetric with area-based methods in addition to area-based pricing method that is the innovation of this study. Since different agricultural policies can not be investigated and analyzed in the laboratory environment, so the potential effects of these policies should be investigated by appropriate instruments of policy before, during and after the implementing of policy. Therefore, due to the importance of the subject, in this study, the Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) model is used to simulate farmers' behavior in the downstream lands of Golestan Dam (1) in Gonbad-e-Kavous County, in the implementation of various water pricing methods such as Area-based, volumetric and mi combined of them. In this study, data were collected using random sampling method and 20 scenarios were investigated. The GAMS software package is also used to analyze the information in this study.The results of this study show that water demand in all three methods (area-based, volumetric and combined) will decrease from 22.6 to 48.8% as water price rises in different scenarios. The highest and lowest water demand reduction is related to the area-based and combined water pricing method, respectively.Applying appropriate water pricing methods makes water be distributed optimally between users based on the value of marginal product and provides incentives to save and prevent loss. Therefore, based on the results of this study, it is recommended to use a volumetric and area-based pricing method in combination.

Over the past decade, water has become a strategic commodity, so that it has not only economic and social importance, but also has security importance; and it is predicted to become a major factor some conflicts in next years. This highlights the necessity for water resources management.

This study deals with water allocation of Gorganrod-Gharahso basin between Golestan, Semnan and North Khorasan provinces and determines the share of each agricultural, industry and environmental sectors based on data of 2015. For this purpose, two methods of Core and Uncertainty Bankruptcy Game are integrated for the first time.

The results of core method showed that the grand coalition creates the net profit equal to 24,211,790 billion rials. By applying Shapely value, it became clear that the Agricultural sector of Golestan province had the highest share (49%) of the generated gains in the top coalition. It should be noted that the Gatley method confirmed the stability of the grand coalition, after satisfying Golestan agricultural sector. In the following, the uncertainty Bankruptcy procedure was used by surveying different allocation rules in 5 scenarios. The results of Plurality index and Stability index suggest that the Sensitivity analysis of Adjusted Proportional rule can be a fair option for determining the share of stakeholders.

According to the above contents, integrating the best coalition of Core and SAP law can fairly supply the needs of stakeholder under different scenario and generate more net profit than the current situation.

In this study, the optimum cropping pattern in Rey County of Iran was determined using Linear Programming model (conventional), considering various degrees of risk using risk models of MOTAD, Target MOTAD and Advanced MOTAD. The required data were collected through field study and filling out 149 questionnaires from beneficiaries of the county as well as the concerned Agricultural-Jehad Management and subordinate organizations and offices in five farming years of 2010-15. The results from linear programming model showed that compared to the present status, applying the optimized cropping pattern made 6.69 percent increase in programmed output. Also, the results from estimation of risky models suggested that there was a positive relationship between risk and the farm’s programmed output. Again, risky models in highest possible level of risk indicated results similar to those of linear programming, and the pattern presented by linear model was placed at maximum possible level of risk.

Considering that the agricultural sector is strongly dependent on climate parameters of temperature and precipitation, it reacts rapidly related to climate change. Farmers are not able to control the climatic conditions, but management and optimization of the cropping pattern according to the region's climate can reduce the effects of climate change on the yield of agricultural products.
In this research, the effects of climate change on the yield, gross margin and Cropping Pattern of Gorgan County were investigated. For this purpose, at first, by using the regression analysis, the effects of climate variables on temperature and annual precipitation on the yield of selected products during the period of 1367-1396 were investigated. Then, the climate change of the study area was predicted for the upcoming periods (2021-2040), the near future (2051-2070) and the far future (2081-2100) by General Circulation Model HadGEM2. in the end, the region's cultivated area was stimulated by the application of Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) and the effects of climate change on the cultivated area in the mentioned periods were investigated.
The results showed that climate parameters such as temperature and precipitation have a significant effect on the yield of selected products. Also, by applying predictions of climate change in the cropping pattern model, Potato with 0.27 and 71.7 percent increase, the highest increase in yield and cultivated area respectively, and High-quality long-grain rice with 0.17 percent reduction have the highest decrease in yield and barley with 89.1 percent reduction have the highest decrease in the cultivated area. and the gross margins of farmers were increased in all three periods.
Suggestion: As a result, it could be mentioned that consideration of the effects of climate change and improving the productivity of agricultural products, can decrease the negative effects of this event.
 JEL Classification: C22, C02, Q25, Q54

The aim of this study was evaluating the economic and financial profitability of different cotton cultivation systems and its effects on cropping pattern in Gorgan County during 2014-15. Required information has been collected by stratified random sampling method from 50 farmers who cultivate cotton in three systems of crop cultivation including mono cropping, double cropping (cotton-bean), and intercropping (cotton-sesame). Data between three cotton cultivation systems was analyzed by using SPSS software. After that, the optimal cropping pattern of Gorgan County was determined by using 295 farmers in Gorgan and using mathematical programming model with GAMS software. The results of profitability showed that, double cropping systems of cotton compared to mono cropping and inter cropping systems has more than 18 and 26 percent economic profitability and 20 and 22 percent financial profitability respectively.The results of determining the optimal cropping pattern of Gorgan county showed that, double cropping system due to more economic and financial profitability than other products, was included in the copping pattern of the county and other cotton cropping systems removed from the model. According to the results of this study, it is suggested that by encouraging farmers to use a double cropping system, the total cultivation area of cotton could be increased in Gorgan County.

In this study, using annual data over the period 1992-2014, asymmetry of sugar market with Johansen co-integration technique and estimation of error correction model were investigated. The application of collective method in import market indicates at least one long-term relationship between the variables of domestic and import prices. Granger causality test showed that there was a one-way Granger causality relationship of import prices to domestic ones not a two-way causality relationship. The estimation of price transmission from imported to domestic price indicates asymmetry in price transmission mechanism of the market of sugar imports in Iran. The study of the main reason for this asymmetry is to use the concentration ratio indexes and Herfindahl- Hirschman indicating high concentration and the dominance of two countries of UAE and Brazil in the market of imports of sugar in Iran.

In fifth development plan, some suitable scientific and managerial policies have been expressed in order to optimizing the use of inputs and producing compatible crops with the conditions of each area. In this study with applying positive mathematical programming method, we evaluated the impacts of possible changes in consumption of inputs on cropping pattern of agricultural crops in Amol Township. These possible changes are propounded in the form of some scenarios like 1% reduction in water usage (PMP1), 7% reduction in fertilizers usage (PMP2), 1% reduction in pesticides usage (PMP3), 0.64% increase in employment (PMP4) and simultaneously mix these scenarios (PMP5). So that in 1392-1393, 124 farmers of this Township were interviewed through simple random sampling method. The results show that with running scenarios 1, 3 & 4 separately, any changes don’t occur in cultivated area of crops; so the least reduction that models reaction to it was calculated by sensitivity analysis. Also the results show that with running scenario 5 (PMP5), observe respectively 5 and 0.2 percent decrease in cultivated area of crops and current gross margin of this Township in compare with current model. So that the greatest reduction in cultivated area, respectively with 40 and 30 percent are related to irrigated barley and Rainfed soybean. Also, all of these scenarios lead to reduction in gross margin, which will reduce the welfare of the farmers in this area; therefore, it is suggested to take the necessary actions for improving their livelihoods.

Excessive exploitation of commercial aquatic resources, especially valuable Caspian sturgeons, has exposed these living resources to high extinction risks. This study was undertakenusing field-based surveysacross fishing zones in Golestan province and by designinga questionnaire. Data were collected through the distribution of 172 questionnaires among fishermen communities to answer questions related to social, economic, fisheries and conservation factors which are likely to contribute in the occurrence of illegal fishing. Following the evaluation of validity and reliability of the questionnaire, data were analyzed using logit model. Results indicated that factors such as home distance to the sea, type of fishing vessels, type of catch ownership, time and depth of fishing activity had significant effect in the incidence of illegal fishing. Fishing efforts of illegal fishermen for sturgeon harvest in Golestan province were mostly occurred during night and in shallow depths, and using non-standard fishing equipment. In conclusion, it appears that the probability of the occurrence of illegal fishing is in association with a range of social, economic, fisheries and conservation factors.

Excessive and illegal exploitation of aquatic resources, especially Caspian sturgeon, are serious threats to their long term protection. Given the importance of maintaining stocks of sturgeon, the study on major causes of committing illegal fishing by fishermen is inevitable. In this study, data were collected through field-based surveys and a questionnaire. Validity and reliability of the questionnaire were assessed based on expert’s knowledge and Cronbach's alpha coefficient. Sample size was estimated using Cochran's formula, and then 201 questionnaires (designed based on Likert scale) were distributed among fishermen in Guilan province during spring and summer 2016 to answer questions related to social, economic, fisheries and conservation factors. Data were analyzed using Logit Model. Results showed that social and economic factors such as study level, income and job satisfaction had significant correlations with the occurrence of illegal fishing (P