shahabeddin shams

The importance of technology and innovation foresight in the health and hospital industry management as one of the important tools in policy intelligence is increasingly revealed. Although theoretical research and practical efforts are not very old in the area of foresight, lack of comprehensiveness of existing models highlights the necessity of integrating the issues raised.

In the present study, to achieve a comprehensive model for technology and innovation foresight in the health and hospital industry management, a systematic qualitative research method is used to systematically review the research findings in this area to explore the approaches and principles of these models after extracting the main themes. To achieve this goal, 70 articles published in electronic databases such as Emerald and Elsevier, etc. were reviewed through the Google Scholar search engine between the years 1990 and 2021. After screening, 35 articles were selected for work, open coding tools were used to analyze the articles. In the next step a descriptive analysis using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systemic View and Mata Analysis protocol proposed and the then developed proposition based on keywords analysis.

By reviewing 70 final articles, researchers identified 3 dimensions and 12 categories as the factors affecting the use of foresight models in health industry management with the aim of innovation and technology development. Key themes included networking among inclusive actors, comprehensiveness of foresight programs, and utilization of foresight output data in the health and hospital industry management. The main themes obtained in this study are in line with approaches to the phenomenon of technology and innovation foresight in the health and hospital industry management adopted by scientists in this area.

These main approaches include conceptualization, history and evolution, differentiation from other aspects of foresight, types of classifications (based on geography, thematic and applied orientation, and foresight generations), and types of frameworks, methods and techniques used, communication with policy-making and strategy determination.

This essay concentrates on modelling of Optimal Stock portfolio selection based on Risk Assessment and Behavioral Financial Approach Mental Accounting and 28 expert’s opinion. In this approach developing the model approved by the opinion of academic and practical experts using quantitative and qualitative methods.  Using quarterly return data of industrial indices for ten year in form of eight training and tow test years indicates that the performance of DMSS and MVO based portfolios is equal however by regarding the value at risk and liquidity constrains in modeling, DMSS based portfolios perform higher than MVO portfolios.

This paper concentrates on the modelling of optimal stock portfolio selection based on Risk Assessment and Behavioral Financial Approach Mental Accounting and 28 expert’s opinion. In this approach developing the model approved by the opinion of academic and practical experts using quantitative and qualitative methods.  Using quarterly return data of industrial indices for ten years in form of eight training and two test years indicates that the performance of DMSS and MVO based portfolios is equal however by regarding the value at risk and liquidity constraints in modeling, DMSS based portfolios perform higher than MVO portfolios.

Application of traditional approaches based on Discounting the cash flow in order to evaluate and comparing investment opportunities including Venture Capital in most industries is a very common issue. Due to the lacking deep certainty in this sort of venture, relying on traditional approaches could end up with inappropriate decision making, because of ignoring the managerial flexibility. At this study the real option approach in estimated capital budgeting was compared with traditional approach based on Discounting the income. The research hypothesis was that the real option approach could improve the quality of decision making and optimize the investing portfolio from the high risk projects. Accordingly, a venture capital company in the field of pharmaceutical products and medical and therapeutic equipment was chosen for applying the model considering two indicators of the availability and completeness of the financial information of the plans by using the case study approach. The results indicated that considering the value of flexible deciding, the efficacy of the capital budgeting model based on dynamic planning and real options shows more precision than traditional budgeting approach.

Given the importance and role of gold as a tool for investing, especially in developing countries, various approaches have been used to predict gold future returns. Hence, the main purpose of the present study is prediction the daily return of gold coin future contract by using multilayer feed-forward neural network and auto-regressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) models in Iran mercantile exchange. For this purpose, the daily data on 20 the gold coin futures contracts for periods July 2014 to September 2016 which has been continued using the method “back-adjusted”, is used. Also, after investigating results of previous studies, dollar price return, gold coin price return and global gold price return have been used as effecting variables on gold coin future contracts return. In addition, Predictive accuracy the neural network and the ARCH models were evaluated using root mean squared error (RMSE), mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and coefficient of determination (R2). The results showed that in the period under review, the neural network model performs better than the ARCH model in the prediction out of sample. But based on the results of the paired t-test, the prediction accuracy of the two models hasn’t been the statistically significant difference.

The cost of capital is one of the most important and significant feature in many financial decisions and management. It also has the high value for the managers of companies and affects on several factors such as financial leverage, profitability, shareholders combination , composition of the board, company's activities, liquidity and size. Inspite of the fact that the ability of fundraising and financial providing of companies is the most important factors to remain in the current market competition, so this study examines the effect of product market competition and return momentum on the cost of capital of Companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange over 2009-2014 .To do so, Excel and Eviews softwares were used in this research. Also, Herfindahl-Hirschman index is used to measure Product market competition return momentum. The results show that Product market competition has negatively significant effect on the cost of capital of Companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange. However, there is no significant relationship between return momentum and the cost of capital.

Theoretically, it is expected that information asymmetry has an important effect on companies' capital structure. In this research, the casual relationship between financial leverage and information asymmetry in listed firms of Tehran Stock Exchange during 1383-1393 was investigated using panel data. To do so, 108 listed firms of Tehran Stock Exchange were selected as the sample of the study and bid-ask spread was used as the scale for measuring the information asymmetry. In addition, F and Husman tests were applied to select the best model from panel, fixed effects and stochastic data. The findings showed a significant relationship between financial leverage and information asymmetry in Tehran Stock Exchange. In other words, financial leverage has a reverse effect on information asymmetry and on the other hand, information asymmetry has a positive and direct effect on financial leverage.

In this research,by using statistical data of 24 accepted investment companies on a monthly basis, and by using Lakonishok model (1992) for the period 1388-1394, impact of herding behavior on the performance of the companies based on modern and post modern portfolio theory is examined. In order to analyze data and examine the hypothesis, after reviewing the static of variables, has been used by Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and Generalized Least Squares (EGLS) methods of estimations. Results indicate that herding behavior in investment companies’ significant negative impact on performance criteria based on the theories of modern and post modern portfolio. In other words, herding behavior is negatively affected on all performance measures Jensen, Sharp, Trainer, Sortino, good potential, Omega, Trainer adjusted and Jensen adjusted

This paper examines the relationship between mutual fund manager's ownership and the disposition effect, by using the 24 accepted mutual funds in the Tehran Stock Exchange for the period of 2011 to 2015, we investigate the effect of mutual funds’s types of ownershipon their disposition effect by applying Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and Generalized Least Squares (EGLS) methods of estimations. Ownership structure is divided into four categories including: foreign ownership, corporate ownership, institutional ownership and management ownership. Kao cointegration test results confirm Long-run relationship among variables. Results also show Funds with managerial ownership exhibit significantly less disposition effect than those without, and the disposition measure decreases with manager's percentage ownership. We also find that the disposition effect is positively related to the degree of board independence. In addation results don’t confirm the effect of corporate ownership on mutual funds’s disposition effect.

Tourism is the fastest growing industry in recent years and has attracted much attention. Since Iran is among the top ten countries in terms of natural and historical tourism potential, among the top five countries in terms of tourism diversity and the diversity of the craft between the first two countries, thus we choose to evaluate the potential of rural tourism in Iranian Northern provinces “Mazandaran”. The objective of this research is drawing a picture, and developing rural tourism and highlighting the desired fields by the help of processing scenario and the Analytic Hierarchy Process. We develop 11 scenarios that include the transformation rural houses to Eco-tourism resorts, the development of rural training camps, the creation of eco hotels, the development of temporary residences in nature, the culture-based tourism development by creating museums, the virgin rural area tourism, the development of culture-based tourism by promoting cultural festivals, the development of health tourism, the food tourism development, the tourism development considering selling souvenirs and souvenir sales development by weekly rural market. Finally, according to the results the virgin rural area tourism scenario the virgin rural area tourism is one of the best tourism scenarios. Additionally we recommend to set up a center of health tourism as center of tourism development in rural area.

This study examines the effect of Herding in different states (low, high and extreme volatility) in Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 2009-2013 using Chang et al (2000) and Balcilar et al (2013) models. In this survey herding are tested under 3 market regimes in selected industries: Cement, Chemical, Pharmaceutical and Investment.
The results dont show evidence of herding in 4 industries using static model (Chang et al, 2000). So dynamic model (Balcilar et al, 2013) was used to analyze Herding under 3 regimes in which our results support the presence of herding under 2 market regimes (high and extreme) . The results also demonstrate evidence of herding behavior under the high volatility regime for all of the selected industries. Herding under the extreme volatility regime is only found in investment and cement industries.

This paper investigates the forecasting gold coin futures contract price in Iran Mercantile Exchange. this research has presented a hybrid model based on genetic fuzzy systems (GFS) and artificial neural network (ANN) to forecast the gold futures contract, At first, we use stepwise regression analysis (SRA) to determine factors which have most influence on stock prices. At the next stage we divide our raw data into k clusters by means of self-organizing map (SOM) neural networks. Finally, all clusters will be fed into independent GFS models. Finally, the results from the proposed hybrid model was compared with the results from forecasting ARIMA model using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Results show that the proposed approach outperforms of ARIMA model, so it can be considered as a suitable tool for forecasting price Gold coin futures contracts problems.

Today, services trivial components of a good economy but are of immense importance in any economy that provides services. An important part that is related to service industry is tourism. In recent years, tourism has had great influence on economic, social and cultural events. As a matter of fact, tourism has now become world's number one service sector industry. In marketing, the most favored strategy is to retain the existing customers and attract new customers. Considering the impact of the services provided and the customer's experiences, it is especially important to consider the complaints of the customers. In fact, an organization can survive if it meets consumers’ needs. In hotel industry there is a high level of interaction between employees and clients; and client's dissatisfaction and complaints may sometimes be completely eliminated. When good services are not provided then inevitably there will be consumer dissatisfaction. Understanding the behavior of consumer complaints as a source of useful information to improve the quality of service is very important for hotels. The purpose of present study is to investigate the customer complaint behavior in hotels. Materials and In the present study, the research and development of e-applications in terms of data collection, descriptive and using survey is conducted. The population of the study consists of customers of three-star hotels and above in the city of Sari who between them 384 people with random sampling were selected. In this study, in order to measure variables a questionnaire was used. The questionnaire consisted of two parts: the first part contained information about respondents such as: gender, age, education, marital status and employment status. The second part, customer surveys hotels inemotional intelligence, self-efficacy, tolerance of ambiguity and coping strategies and their impact on customer complaints. In order to measure the validity of the questionnaire factor analysis was used. The reliability of the questionnaire was calculated by using Cronbach’s alpha with SPSS16 software which was 0.916. In order to test the hypotheses, research from structural equation modeling was used by using AMOS software. Discussion and The results showed that denial and problem-focused coping have a negative impact, and emotion-focused coping has a positive impact on costumers’ complaints in coping and resolving the problem without complaint. For service providers, the consumers actively solve the problem of dealing with service failure and suppress the emotional part, provide an opportunity to cooperate in the service recovery options. Emotional intelligence has a positive impact on problem and emotion focused coping and negative impact on denial. In other words, customers are better able to manage their emotions and also a failure of settlement services, and the adaptive strategies of avoid anceavoid such as problem-focused and emotion focused. Also both of self-efficacy and ambiguity tolerance have a positive impact on problem-focused coping and negative impact on emotion-focused and denial. Finally results showed that customers’ complaints behavior associated with their gender and women more complain than men. The current research studies the psychology and the behavior of customers in marketing. Previous research on coping with the study results with improved service failure. Particularly, the study focused on three intrinsic impacts on coping strategies, consumer engagement at an event-overshadowed service gives emotional intelligence, self-efficacy and to lerance of ambiguity. Unlike previous studies, the current study did not examine purely functional aspects of a service offense, but its psychological and social aspects. The results showed changes that would happen in the psychological and social aspects.

In this paper, the relationship between organizational trust and job satisfaction. The populations of the study are employees of public organization in Tehran and the sample consists of 218 employees of the organization. To study Organizational trust the model Ellonen, Bloom West and Pamalaynn has been used and to study job satisfaction has been used the model Smith, Kendall and Hulin, and his colleagues. For test the hypothesis, has been used Spearman correlation test and Friedman Test rankings. Also for analysis of data has been used software’s SPSS. The spearman correlation test results revealed a significant Positive relationship between organizational trust and job satisfaction. Also survey results showed a significant positive relationship between all dimensions of organizational trust (Lateral trust, Vertical trust, Institutional trust) and job satisfaction. In addition the results show that all dimensions of organizational trust have a positive relationship with all aspects of job satisfaction.

The present research investigated the relationship between privatization and liquidity in listed companies of Tehran stock exchange using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) technique during 1382- 1387. Before estimation of the model, stationary of the variables were tested using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. The results showed that there is no significant relationship between government owned companies and stock market using market trading turnover and Amihud’s liquidity criterion, but international news has directly affected on the liquidity in Tehran Stock Exchange.

In this study, the profitability of contrarian and momentum strategies were traded in mid- term based on trading volume. The stocks were categorized into three parts (high, middle and low) at the outset. Then, the relationship between excess return with three components such as cross-sectional risk, lead-lag effect and time-series pattern were examined based on Jegadeesh and Titman approach.The sample including 108 listed companies of Tehran Stock Exchange that were traded over 2005-2010. The data was collected annually, monthly and daily using Tadbir Pardaz and Rahavard Nouvin softwares. The hypotheses were tested using mean comparisons test, ANOVA and Ordinary Least Squares. The results show that by increasing trading volume, the momentum or contrarian return will be increased. There would be a possibility of explaining instances of no significant momentum or contrarian return with cross-sectional risk and lead-lag effect in medium trading volume. Moreover, the momentum return can be described with independent variables on middle and high trading volume.

Today knowledge as the most important capital is replaced for physical capital especially in comparative and technological environments. Therefore the conception of intellectual capital has important and wide usage. Intellectual capital is appeared in customers, processes, information, brand, human resources, and organization systems and plays an extreme role in creation of constant comparative advantage. This research studies about the relationship between intellectual capital and financial performance. For this purpose at first, five key indices of companies performances and index of intellectual capital by using of Public model in statistical society of accepted companies on the Iran Stock Exchange for five years (2005 to 2009) are measured and then experimented the influence of intellectual capital and its components on five financial performance indices by using of linear regression model. The findings indicate that intellectual capital and ROE, EP MV/BV, ROA and EPS are positively related.

Minimizing the cost of capital and increasing the value of the firms’ stocks were one of the most important and key debates of the previous decades. Effective factors on financial managers’ visions in relation to sources and uses of capital were determined based on the internal characteristics of the organization and also the external environment. The present study investigated the effect of company’s characteristics such as size, asset structure, profitability, expected growth, interest coverage ratio, quick ratio and return on assets (ROA) on the capital structure of 103 listed firms of Tehran Stocks Exchange over the period of 1381-1387 using screen sampling method. To do so, a combination of panel and time series data were used for evaluation and testing. At the beginning of the evaluation, Hussman and F tests have been applied for estimating the method in order to select the best model among the ordinary combined data, namely the fixed and random effects. In this research, Eviews 6 and Excel softwares have been applied to estimate the variables. The results showed a negative and significant relationship among firm’s debts, asset structure (fixed assets to total assets ratio), profitability (marginal profit before interest and tax), and market value to book value, quick ratio and return on assets (ROA). In addition, there is a positive and significant relationship between firm’s capital structure, size and interest coverage ratio.

In this article the relationship between information disclosure and Bid – Ask spread is investigated in capital market of Iran using simultaneous equations system. In order to determine the degree of information disclosure of firms, a check list based on accounting standards was prepared and the relationship between Bid-Ask spread was examined in 112 firms in 2007. For the purpose of investigating the relationship, cross-sectional method was used.As a result, a significant. reverse relationship was observed in the course of our study.

Todays, Entrepreneurship is considered as the Economic Development engine and all countries attempt to develop it in their countries. With respect to the high importance of entrepreneurship and the necessity of its development in our country, this research is aimed to study and design the organizational structure of entrepreneurship in Iran. In this research, using the comparative studies of sucessful entrepreneurship centers and with considering the theorical fundaments of designing organizational structure and local and reginal conditions of I. R. Iran, the appropriate organizational structure of entrepreneurship centers has been designed.