جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "اسپکتروم" در نشریات گروه "علوم انسانی"

The problem of reducing the fertility rate in recent decades in Iran and formulating appropriate policies to improve it has been one of the main challenges of policymakers in the social sphere. The purpose of the current research is to study the future of the population of the province until 1420 based on possible scenarios. For this purpose, in order to achieve the goal of the research, while determining the required assumptions, using the secondary analysis method and with the help of Spectrum software, population forecasting is done by age, gender, urban and rural groups for the cities of the province. done. The selected scenario is based on the continuation of the current trend of fertility, mortality and migration of the province. The future demographic developments of the province show that the population of the province has structurally entered the stage of old age and the share of the elderly population will increase significantly and the population under 15 years will decrease and this will cause problems in the regeneration process. Such a trend can be observed among the cities of the province.

Demographic changes in recent decades have led to rapid changes in Iran's urban system and its hierarchy, with one of its consequences being the increase or decrease in the ranking of cities in this system. The present study examines the position of Tabriz metropolis in the urban system of Iran from 1335 to 1395, and by forecasting the population of this metropolis by 2031, it tries to determine the future position of this city in the urban system of Iran. This study is practical in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of nature and research method. The data in the present study were obtained through document analysis and field study (questionnaire and interview). Interviews were used to understand the causes of emigration and a questionnaire was used to understand the causes of fertility decline in Tabriz metropolis. The sample sizes for both instruments were determined based on the saturation principle. The exponential model, Spectrum software, and rank mobility index were used to predict the demographic factors, population forecast, and the study of metropolitan rank changes in the urban system, respectively. The obtained results showed that the decrease in fertility rate and migration are the main reasons for the sharp decline in population growth in the metropolis of Tabriz, with the economic reasons being the main reason. In addition, assuming the fertility rates of 1.5, 1.8, and 2.1 in Tabriz, we will see 1.64, 1.69, and 1.74 million increases in the population of the city, respectively, as well as a decrease in the population of minors and a doubling of elderly population over 65 by the year 2031. The results of population forecast show that the position of Tabriz metropolis will be stabilized as the sixth largest city of Iran's urban system by 2031, but its distance from the seventh metropolis (Qom) will be less, which requires special attention and proper management to prevent its rank from falling again.