جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « مدیریت درآمدهای نفتی » در نشریات گروه « علوم انسانی »

Many countries which their exports are mainly based on mineral resources are faced with the fluctuations in their foreign revenues. Based on this issue In Iran, in order to reduce the negative effects of oil shocks revenue on macroeconomic variables the National Development Fund was established as a tool to control such a fluctuations. In this study, using the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model, three scenarios were developed to investigate the impact of the share of funds which will be allocated to the National Development Fund for controlling oil revenue fluctuations. In the first and second scenarios, according to the fifth and sixth development plans, the share of the fund was equal to 20% and 30%, respectively, and in the third scenario, the share of the fund was considered as floating share in models which have been applied. According to the research findings, the impulse function of oil revenues shocks in all three scenarios has increased the production and employment of the public sector and reduced the employment in the private sector. The results indicate that when oil shocks occur, the use of floating share of oil revenue for the National Development Fund in relative to the fixed share to allocate oil revenue sources to that fund, causes more fluctuations in production and employment variables in the public sector

The existence of multiple shocks and changes in an economic system creates numerous effects on internal variables and economic sectors, and any changes in the production structure can be affect the external sector of the economy or the distribution of household incomes and their welfare. This study, with the hypothesis of Dutch disease, examines the amount of oil revenue transfers using the social accounting matrix and a meaningfully calculated general equilibrium approach. The results of the research show that in the scenario of equal interest rates and time preference rate, the amount of oil revenues each year should be increased at a rate of 10%, which can be maintained at the National Development Fund, so that different periods can be used to optimize oil revenues for using it. In the disparity scenario of interest rates and time preference rates, only when the time preference rate should be much lower than the interest rate at the present time, due to the increasing consumption path and the increase in tradable goods consuming to be exchanged relative to the non-exchangeable part, it can be the disease Dutch achieved the best. Otherwise, the Dutch disease will be worse off due to a reduction in the exchangeable part and an increase in imports.

Iran’s Economy have been facing several challenges including resource curse, lack of resilience due to intelligent sanctions because of its dependency on crude oil export revenues. Concerning this issue, in paragraphs 12 and 13 of the general policies of resistive economy, it is emphasized on the increase of the resistance and decrease of the vulnerability of the economy, especially on the context of crude oil and natural gas export revenues. It is also emphasized on the role of national wealth fund through increasing its share of these revenues and breaking off the dependency of the government budget resources to such revenues, in paragraph 18 of resistive policies. On the other hand, the current management of oil and gas revenues through third to sixth development plans, show that the aim of increasing such resilience hasn’t been verified. This paper aims to take advantage of national wealth funds capacity as a successful approach in management of oil revenues with an emphasis on its stabilizing and developmental applications in order to improve the economic situation of the country and decrease the dependency to these revenues and as a result increase the power and resilience of the Iran’s economy.