جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « zoning » در نشریات گروه « علوم انسانی »

Text Landslides are one of the types of large-scale processes that cause many human and financial losses in many parts of Iran and the world every year. The increase in population and the expansion of human settlements in mountainous areas, the difficulty of predicting the occurrence of landslides and the numerous factors influencing the occurrence of this phenomenon, reveal the necessity of landslide risk zoning. Identifying the effective factors in the occurrence of this phenomenon and its risk zoning is one of the basic and practical methods to achieve its forecasting, control and monitoring solutions. By using field studies, geological and topographical maps, and by reviewing the researches and studies done in this field, as well as examining the existing conditions in the studied area, 9 factors of elevation, slope, slope direction, lithology, distance from the fault. , the distance from the river, the distance from the communication roads, land use and rainfall were investigated as factors affecting the occurrence of landslides. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to investigate and analyze the most important factors involved in creating the risk of landslides in Garami city and to identify the prone areas that will probably be involved in landslides in the near future. In this research, the zoning of prone areas was done with the Aras multi-criteria algorithm in the Edrisi software environment, and according to the results of landslide risk zoning; The criteria of land use, slope, and lithology are the most important factors involved in creating the risk of landslides in the study area with weight coefficients of 0.187, 0.152, 0.152, and 0.142, respectively, and are 361.99 and 450.32, respectively. A square kilometer of the area has a very high probability of danger. Finally, it can be said that the most important factor involved in increasing the amount and potential of landslides in Germi city is the change of land use and the increase of agricultural land and livestock pastures.

The aim of this study was to assess the climate capability of agricultural areas in Kurdistan province for the cultivation of four medicinal plants: chicory, fennel, foxglove, and shallot. Numerous studies have been conducted on the zoning of agricultural products and medicinal plants, but the optimal location of these four plants in Kurdistan province has not been done. To do this, first, using meteorological data from eight synoptic stations, climatic criteria such as annual precipitation, altitude, average temperature during flowering period and average temperature during plant growth period were extracted and entered into the geographic information system quantitatively. Then interpolation of each of these criteria and conversion of them into information layers based on the minimum RMSE was performed. Finally, based on classification and overlapping weighting function, the results showed that 94.8% of agricultural lands in the province are climatically suitable and very suitable for cultivation of chicory and fennel medicinal plants. For foxglove and shallot plants, this amount reaches 47.2%. The conclusion that can be drawn from this study is that climatic variables such as precipitation, altitude and average temperature during flowering period for chicory and fennel medicinal plants create much less limitation than foxglove and shallot medicinal plants. The results of this capability assessment can be used as an effective guide for agricultural extension experts, farmers and developers of these plants in the province’s regions.

Flooding is one of the most important challenges facing human civilization and its impact is expected to increase due to climate change and massive urbanization. The purpose of this research is to zonate flood occurrence using WMS hydrological model with GIS integration in Shahristanak watershed, one of the sub-basins of Karaj dam in Alborz province. In this study, geological maps 1:100000, topography 1:2000 and 1:50000, soil 1:100000, and data from synoptic and rain gauge stations are considered as the most basic data of this research for flood zoning in Shahristanak catchment area. Also, ArcGIS 10.3, WMS software was used to analyze and prepare maps. A modified version of TOPAZ model along with WMS was used to calculate the flow direction from the DEM active area. The results show that in the upstream and downstream of the catchment basin, as we move away from the center of the river, the area of water depth increases. While in some places upstream of the river, the water depth is less. In other words, the lower the water depth, the greater its area, and the greater the water depth, the smaller its area. Most of the area is 4.03 meters deep, which is equal to 44.2 hectares. The area of the depth of 8.06 meters is equal to 14.5 hectares, the area of the depth of 12.09 meters is equal to 4.6 hectares, the area of the depth of 16.12 meters is equal to 1.4 hectares, and the area of the depth of 20.15 meters is equal to 1.1. It is hectares. In general, the WMS model and its integration with GIS is for flood zoning and determining risk ranges in the region.

The growing population and development of cities along rivers in the area of canals and their blockage have created flood-prone areas and increased the damage caused by it. The purpose of this study is to zoning flood risk in the city of Maragheh . have been used criteria, the distance from the river, distance from drainage lines, population density, residential density, slope, dem, aspect, land use. the layers were weighted by network analysis Process (ANP) method using Super Decisions software. According to the coefficients obtained in the ANP model, the waterway factor with a coefficient of 0/7500 had the highest value and the land use factor with a coefficient of 0/0895 had the lowest value for creating floods, and then all layers were fuzzy in GIS environment and with weight Hanging the layers and combining them by gamma method, the final flood zoning plan was prepared. Based on the results, areas with very high flood risk in the city center along the Sufi Chai River with an area of 3/126 hectares. They are located in areas 1, 2 and 3 and areas with low flood risk in the outskirts of the city with an area of 13/595 hectares in areas 5 and 7, respectively. The results from integration of ANP and Fuzzy models, as approved in previuos studies, indicate their high efficiency in identifying the areas with high flood risk. Therefore, it is essential to consider the zoning layers in planinig proceses, particularly rsik assessment

In recent years, the population growth, the increase in irrigated land and economic development have caused the increase in the demand for groundwater resources all over the world. In arid and semi-arid regions where surface water does not have a significant amount due to low rainfall and high evapotranspiration, people lives mainly depend on groundwater. As a result, it is necessary to identify the groundwater potential areas and determine its recharge areas using accurate technologies. So, the aim of this research is to compare the method of multi- influencing factors with the fuzzy method for determining the potential of groundwater in a part of Kebar-Fordo watershed, Qom city, Iran.

For this purpose, a part of Kebar-Fordo watershed located in Qom province was selected. Six factors layer, viz. slope, annual rainfall, distance from river, geology, soil, and landuse were considered and classified based on groundwater potential susceptibility in different scales. Multi-influencing factor method can determine the groundwater potential of the region by assigning appropriate weight to different effective factors. In this approach, the layers were combined in Arc-GIS after determining the weight of the layers. In the fuzzy method, the layers of six factors were converted to fuzzy based on the linear function, and then the layers were incorporated using the gamma function. Finally, the statistics of observation points and accuracy index were used in order to evaluate the models,

The slope map represents that most part of the studied area (78.56%) has a "0-1" class while "1-3", "3-9" and "9-25" slope classes could be observed in 19.97, 1.29 and 0.18% of the total area, respectively. The soil texture has a significant effect on the infiltration and percolation of the surface water movement towards the groundwater. Therefore, in this research, the soil factor has been investigated as one of the input factors to the models. Soils with high permeability are more suitable for groundwater recharge and vice versa. The soil texture of the area consists of sandy loam, loam, sandy clay loam, and clay loam textures, which cover 3.73, 90.72, 0.23, and 5.32% of the total area, respectively, with a rank of four to one  for groundwater potential. In this study, geology map showed that Qft2 formation has the largest area (88.98%) and Plc formation is in the second rank (4.9%). Qft1, Qs.d and Mur units have an area of 2.22, 2.12 and 1.10% and the smallest area belongs to OMq formation (0.68%). Also, different types of land use in the study area were agriculture, garden, rangeland, bareland, and resendential area. The land use map showed that the largest area of this area was ariculture landuse (77.18%), while garden and rangeland covered 0.07 and 6.5% of the total area, respectively. Bareland and residential area comprise 2.94%, 13.31% of the total area, respectively. Among the different landuses, agriculture and residential area have the highest and lowest ranks in groundwater recharge. The rainfall map was categorized with four classes. The classes of 140-156, 156-168, 168-182, and 182-203 mm layers include 14.15, 48.92, 21.84 and 15.09% of the total area with the rank of one to four for groundwater recharge, respectively. The map of distance from the stream was divided into four categories: "0-659", "659-1480", "1480-2675" and "2675-4939" meters, which comprise 46.33%, 34.15%, 15.72% and 3.8% of the total area, respectively. In the method of multi influencing factor, the distance from the stream (8.33%) and the geological factor (25%) were the lowest and highest weights. In this regard, the factors of rainfall, slope, soil, landuse have 20.83%, 16.67%, 16.67% and 12.5% weights, respectively. Then, the groundwater potential map was prepared through overlaying in ArcGIS and the studied area was classified into suitable and unsuitable classes. The suitable class covers 75.15% of the studied area and the unsuitable class covers 24.85% of the total area. In the fuzzy method, the unsuitable class comprises 43.63% and suitable class covers 56.37% of the area. In order to evaluate the models, the statistics of the observation points were applied which the accuracy of the multi- influencing factor and fuzzy models was calculated as 71.42 and 78.57%, respectively.

Preparation of groundwater potential map is necessary to adopt management measures of rainfall storage and groundwater recharge in arid and semi-arid regions and it can be used for sustainable management of groundwater resources. The findings of this research revealed both model's accuracy in the studied area.

among the territories that has undergone the most changes in the field of country divisions in recent decades, and at the same time tensions and conflicts between political and administrative territories have expanded at intra-provincial and inter-provincial levels. Accordingly, the main objective of the present research is to answer the question of which components and factors have played a greater role and importance in the occurrence of tensions and conflicts between the political-administrative territories of the studied province, and how the intensity of tensions and conflicts has been in different parts of the province (at both intra-provincial and inter-provincial levels).

In the present research, using a descriptive-analytical method, first were ranked, based on the findings of field research (questionnaire) and the analysis of the findings of experts’ opinions, the sources of tension and conflict between the political-administrative territories of Fars province (at the intra-provincial and inter-provincial levels). Then, based on library findings, the tensions and conflicts between the political territories of Fars province were extracted and their intensity was categorized, and based on it, a map of zoning of conflicts between the political-administrative territories of the country divisions of Fars province was drawn in two intra-provincial and inter-provincial levels.

Based on the analysis of the research findings, the components of changes in borders and country division boundaries, local competitions, and border disputes have played the greatest role in shaping tensions and conflicts between the political-administrative territories of Fars province (at both intra-provincial and inter-provincial levels). Also, the zoning of the intensity of tensions and conflicts in the studied territory shows that at the intra-provincial level, the tensions and conflicts of Kazeroon and Kooh Chenar counties, Darab and Estehban counties, and Larestan and Gerash counties, and at the inter-provincial level, the tensions and conflicts of Fars province with Hormozgan and Bushehr provinces have the highest intensity and will have more potential for tension and conflict in the future.

Floods are one of the natural hazards that cause financial and human losses every year. This research was carried out to determine the flood risk zones in the Friesian watershed with Artificial Neural Network Model and Support Vector Machine to identify the influential factors in the occurrence of floods in the region, necessary measures for control, planning and protective and management measures in to reduce the risk of flooding.

This was an applied, analytical and developmental study carried out in 2023 in Firizi watershed. 14 environmental parameters were used for flood risk zoning. Then, 150 flood points in the basin were extracted using satellite images and randomly divided into 70% for model training and 30% for validation. Then, the layers were weighted, and the flood potential maps were classified into 5 categories: Very high, high, medium, low, and very low, using the natural fracture method. Then, the accuracy of the models used in the research was investigated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic method.

The research assessed the accuracy of the models by employing the Receiver Operating Characteristic approach. The collected findings indicate that the Artificial Neural Network model outperformed the Support Vector Machine model, with an Area Under the Curve value of 0.923 compared to 0.898.

The flooding in the basin primarily affected areas with gentle slopes, rocks that are resistant to water flow and not easily penetrated, lower altitudes, and lands located next to rivers (known as floodplains). The basin contains areas that are classified as high and extremely high-risk, primarily in its central and outflow regions.

Today, due to population increase, industrial development, excessive exploitation, droughts, exploitation of underground water has multiplied. Therefore, identifying areas with underground water as one of the important sources for providing drinking water, agriculture, and various industries is considered to be one of the important and necessary issues in water resources management. The purpose of this research is to investigate and zonate the areas with underground water in Khorram Abad plain located in Lorestan province using convolutional neural network method. For this purpose, maps of nine factors affecting underground water were first prepared in the ArcGist environment. In the convolution method, the number of samples was determined as the ratio between the training set and the test set was 70:30, and the convolution neural network framework was used as 2 convolution layers and 2 integration layers, 2 complete connections. layers and finally the sigmoid layer was used for classification from the 3-3 convolution kernel, the Relu function as the activation function and the cross entropy function as the loss function. The obtained maps were classified into 5 classes: very good, good, average, low and very low. Confusion matrix was also used to validate the results of the model. 30% of the real data was used for evaluation, which resulted in an overall accuracy of 92%, that is, the model was able to correctly identify 92% of the data as underground water and 93% as the absence of underground water. The analysis of the groundwater potential map of the convolutional neural network model shows that about 57% of the area is in low groundwater conditions and 43% of the area is in good groundwater conditions.

Floods are considered one of the most important and abundant geomorphic hazards in the country, which cause a lot of damage every year. Aji Chai basin, located in East Azerbaijan province, witnesses devastating floods every year due to its large area and special topographical conditions. Therefore, the main aim of this study is to prepare a flood hazard potential map in this basin. To achieve this aim, 18 parameters effective in the occurrence of this hazard and two statistical methods of frequency ratio (FR) and statistical index (SI) have been used. The investigated parameters were Elevation, Slope, Aspect, Rainfall, Distance to the river, River density, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, land use, Distance to bridge, Distance to dam, lithology, hydrological soil groups, Topographic wetness index, Sediment transport index, Stream power index, Drainage texture, Geomorphology and earth curvature. The location of the past flood points in the area was used to determine the parameters weight and implement the research models. The final maps were prepared from the product of the weights of each parameter class in their information layers and were classified into five classes using the Natural Breaks tool. Study the final maps showed that hazard zones spatial distribution patterns were similar in both models. In this way, the areas downstream of the basin and around the main streams of the area are the most dangerous zones. The accuracy evaluation of the results of both models with the ROC curve showed that the values of the area under the curve for SI and FR models were 0.945 and 0.919, respectively, which shows the excellent performance of both models in preparing flood hazard maps.

Drought affects a wide range of climates and ecosystems. Meanwhile, the effect radius of the drought phenomenon is more in rural areas than other areas, because rural economy and life rely relatively heavily on natural resources and agricultural activities. The present study was carried out with the aim of grouping and prioritizing the villages of Qorveh and Dehgolan counties in order to show the difference in the severity of drought and the degree of vulnerability caused by it. The data obtained from calculating the severity of drought showed that the counties of Qorveh and Dehgolan had a mild drought during the studied years. Also, in the discussion of drought vulnerability in the studied settlements, 13 villages were selected as samples and their vulnerability was measured using certain variables. 100% of the surveyed villages in Qorveh and Dehgolan counties have drought experience. The results of Tuki's grouping show that the sample villages are different in terms of vulnerability in the level of indicators of income from the main and secondary livelihoods of the household, exploitation of agricultural water, diversity of household livelihoods and reduction of the area under water cultivation. The biggest difference between villages is the level of access to agricultural water sources. Finally, using the spline interpolation method in the GIS system, the studied villages were zoned in terms of drought severity and degree of vulnerability.Key words: vulnerability of villages, water shortage crisis, zoning, drought

The aim of this research was to identify and rank the factors influencing the choice of architectural type and zoning based on climate conditions using the best and worst methods. Library and field methods were used to collect data. Data collection tools are databases related to climatology in Ahvaz metropolis. In order to determine the weight of each factor, the opinions of experts and ANP were used, and the factors were ranked according to the weight of each factor. The findings showed that among the obtained weights, pollution prevention with weight (0.099), sunny hours with weight (0.097) and access with relative weight (0.096) have the highest weights among the sub-indexes obtained, which are in the first ranks to They placed third. Other weights were based on the weights obtained in other ranks. Other weights were based on the weights obtained in other ranks.Other weights were based on the weights obtained in other ranks.

Earthquake is one of the natural disasters on earth that causes a lot of economic and human losses every year. Although this natural hazard cannot be predicted with current science, use of technology and technological progress, makes it possible to plan properly to reduce damages. These measures are the result of recognizing and examining the potential areas of the earth where there is a possibility of earthquake risk, and by taking advantage of it and analyzing them, the necessary preparation for earthquake prevention or control can be obtained. In this purpose, the geographic information system plays a significant role in the integration of related maps. In this research, the impact of various factors on the occurrence of earthquakes and the zoning of earthquake risk in Kermanshah county has been investigated. In order to achieve this, the fuzzy hierarchical analysis method was used to obtain the weight of each of the studied criteria and the degree of their impact, and by obtaining the small values of the weight of each criterion, a fuzzy weight map of the criteria was prepared and finally a risk map. The acceptability of different areas of Kermanshah county has been obtained. The results show that 15.6% of Kermanshah county is at risk of earthquake with "high" degree and 16.7% with "very high" degree. Also, 18.2 percent of the villages in Kermanshah county are at risk of earthquake with "very high" degree and 17.7 percent with "high" degree, and in the urban area of Kermanshah, the risk of earthquake with "very high" degree is equal to 6.3%. And it covers 18.1% of the area of Kermanshah city with "high" grade.

Currently, the utilization of the carrying capacity, which denotes the maximal number of individuals partaking in a natural sport or recreational activity at a specific moment without inducing alterations in the surroundings, is widely employed in the realm of management. The objective of this investigation is to ascertain the recreational and sporting capacity of the Dena region within the Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad province.

This is an applied mixed study carried out in 2020-2021 in Dena region. The Ecological Capability Evaluation Model (ECE) and Sport Tourism Capacity (STCC) were utilized. Additionally, the geographic notification system was implemented to finalize the layers and generate the maps. Subsequent to the validation of the present uses, three categories of capacity were approximated, namely physical, genuine, and effective physical board capacity. Consequently, appropriate zones were identified for a diverse array of concentrated and widespread recreational activities.

Findings: 

The estimated daily capacity of the study site's physical carrying capacity was determined to be 18255600. In order to calculate the actual carrying capacity of the study site, five limiting factors and thirteen parameters were utilized, resulting in a capacity of 24152158 per day. These coefficients were then employed to calculate the effective carrying capacity of the management parameters. Notably, the highest rating was attributed to the "variety of recreational uses" and "diversity of sports uses" (3.4 and 3.3 respectively), while the lowest rating was given to "Sanitation and Health" (1.6). Consequently, the effective carrying capacity for the study site was established at 10626949 people per day. The study area was further divided into four zones based on concentrated and extensive tourism, encompassing the mountain-forest ecosystem, mountainous region, plain area, rangelands and aquatic ecosystems.

The extensive tourism endeavors conducted in the northern region of the study vicinity, encompassing the mountain and forest ecosystems, alongside the plain ecosystem, have resulted in the most substantial degree of detrimental impact.

Landslides is considered as one of the major natural hazards in mountainous areas. Identifying the effective factors in the occurrence of landslides in a basin and zoning its risk is one of the basic tools to achieve solutions to control this phenomenon and select the most appropriate and practical management option. The present study aimed to evaluate the factors affecting the occurrence of landslides and its zoning using the LIM model. For this purpose, after obtaining the weight of each of the factor maps and the weight column of each unit (including: altitude, slope, slope direction, drainage density, distance from the river, distance from the road, lithological units, distance from the fault, Vegetation, land use, annual rainfall and soil hydrological groups) The final weight and landslide zining map was obtained using a model from the algebraic sum of the 11 factor layers. According to the results, arounf 34 % of the study area located in the range of high to very high risk, around 41 % in the range of low to very low potential risk, and the rest in the range of medium potential of landslide occurrence. The results of the maximum values obtaned for the final weight of different variables indiated that slope, distance from the road, land use, vegetation, height, lithology, distance from the river, rainfall, soil hydrological group, slope direction and the distance from the fault have the most to the least influence on the occurrence of landslides in the studied region, respectively. In general, the research results can provide useful information to planners in various sectors, including agriculture, industry, environment, etc.

Landslide can be defined as mass movement of materials on sloping slopes under the influence of mass gravity and triggering factors such as earthquakes, floods and heavy rains. This phenomenon is one of the natural hazards that causes a lot of loss of life and money every year in mountainous, rainy and seismic areas. By zoning the risk of landslides, it is possible to identify sensitive areas with high potential for landslides and by providing solutions, appropriate control and conduting effective management methods, the occurrence of landslides can be partially prevented or the damages caused by them can be reduced.

In this research, the effect of the rainfall system of April 2018 on the occurrence of landslides in Boyer Ahmad and Dena counties in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad province has been investigated. The zoning of landslide risk has been performed using Haeri-Sami experimental model and the integration of thematic rock maps based on geology, slope angle, length of fault, length of road and river, amount of rain, intensity of rain and earthquake have been done in the scale of 1:1500000. After preparing the landslide zoning map, by carefully examining the Google Earth images, the areas of the studied areas where the potential of landslides were expected to be higher were identified. Then, during the extensive field visits, the geographical coordinates of the observed landslides were recorded and by preparing the point coordinates of the landslides in the Arc Map software environment and transferring them to the Google Earth images, the location of the landslides was recorded. The identification and range of each location was prepared in the form of a polygon file and transferred to the Arc Map software environment, and in this way a digital map of the distribution of landslides in the studied area was prepared. The density ratio index (Dr) was used to evaluate the landslide risk zoning map.

The results showed that only in terms of the geological factor, about 23% of the area under study has a high sensitivity to the occurrence of landslides, while other factors including the slope angle (73%), fault length (99%), and length of roads and rivers (98%) have little sensitivity to the occurrence of landslides. In terms of the amount of rainfall, in the average rainfall mode (78% of the region) it has moderate sensitivity and in the mode of April 2018 rainfall, 82% of the region is of medium sensitivity and 10% of high sensitivity with regard to the occurrence of landslides. In terms of the intensity of rainfall (79%) and earthquakes, about 58% of the area under study has a medium sensitivity to the occurrence of landslides. Landslide risk in 4 classes: no risk, very low risk, low risk and medium risk, respectively, have an area distribution of 15.1, 36.07, 43.33 and 5.5% in the case of average rainfall and 22.54, 7.9, 38.03 and 31.53% in the case of April 2018 rainfall. In the average rainfall, about 94% of the studied area is in the classes without risk to low risk of landslides, and in the rainfall of April 2018, about 69% is in the low and medium risk range.

Based on the results of landslide risk zoning, it can be said that the occurrence of landslide risk in the study area based on the studied model and the mutual conditions of the effective parameters in the average rainfall is almost low and in the rainfall of April 2018, the risk is low to moderate. Therefore, it can be concluded that the rainfall in April 2018 has a relatively significant effect on the risk of landslides. In connection with the evaluation of the efficiency of the model using the density ratio index, the model has been able to separate the landslide risk zones well, and in the very low risk class, the amount of rainfall is more accurate in both cases.

Therefore, the purpose of this research is to investigate and analyze the most important factors involved in creating the risk of subsidence in the Ardabil plain and to identify the susceptible surfaces that are likely to be involved in subsidence in the near future. The purpose of this research in the first stage is to evaluate the subsidence using radar interferometry technique in the Sarscape software environment, using the capabilities of A1 Sentinel images in the time frame of 2016 and 2021, and also in the following, in relation to the zoning of susceptible areas with the algorithm Aras multi-criteria was implemented in Edrisi software environment. The results of the present study showed that between 0 and 22 mm of subsidence has occurred in the studied area, and the highest amount of subsidence is concentrated in the central part and then in the eastern and north-eastern parts. According to the results of subsidence risk zoning; The criteria of water level drop, distance from the river, geology, and land use are the most important factors involved in creating the risk of subsidence in the study area, respectively, with a weighting factor of 0.221, 0.166, 0.152, and 0.147, respectively, and 267/41 and 403/21 square kilometers of the range have a very high probability of danger. Finally, it can be said that the most important factor involved in increasing the amount and potential of subsidence in the Ardabil plain is the excessive use of underground water and the drop in the water level.

Floods are one of the most destructive natural disasters that cause huge and frequent human losses ,financial and resource losses all over the world(Mishra & Sinha, 2020,1). Flash floods are caused by heavy rains and due to the sudden accumulation and release of runoff from upstream to downstream. This natural phenomenon is the result of the activity of two groups of different parameters. The first group is the meteorological features that change according to space and time. The second group of fixed parameters includes geomorphological and geological characteristics(Youssef et al, 2011,755).Therefore, identification and zoning of areas prone to flood risk is necessary for sustainable development planning and protection of human societies(Farhan & Ayed, 2017, 719). The Ojan Chai basin, which has been flooded in recent years, especially due to human intervention in basin system. One of the most unprecedented floods occurred in this basin in 2016. Therefore, according to the history of flooding in this basin, it is necessary to assess and zoning the risk of sudden flood. The aim of the current research is to evaluate and zoning flash flood-prone areas in the basin based on physiographic characteristics, which is the basis of the modified flash flood potential index (MFFPI).

Flood is one of the natural phenomena and one of the most important and destructive hazards in the world, which is associated with loss of life and property every year in different parts of the world and Iran. Climate change has consequences and effects on global warming, reduction of  Agricultural production, changes in the diversity and vegetation of pastures, changes in groundwater levels, the occurrence of social and economic problems, and so on. The overall goal of this research is to zoning and model areas at risk and  flood risk for changing climates. The prevailing approach of the research is the approach of climate change and its effects on the hydrology of Gorganrood watershed. The key goal of the current research is to model and forecast regional flood risk under climate change conditions using fuzzy analysis algorithm, hierarchical analysis and SWAT model in the watersheds of Golestan province. In fact, it is possible to plan the water resources of the region more precisely and help to calculate the more precise management of the transfer of the region along with other environmental variables, including this research. There have been many research studies on the phenomenon of precipitation in Golestan province and Iran, but none of them have examined this climatic variable with the perspective of climate change together with environmental variables.                                                                                                      

Gorganrood Basin with an area of ​​10197 square kilometers is one of the northeastern basins of the country, a large part of which is located in Golestan province. It is bounded by the Atrak catchment area and the Caspian Sea and Qarahsu catchment area from the west. In the present study, flood zone changes in Gorganrood watershed based on the use of meteorological organization (synoptic) station information with a 30-year statistical period(1989 to 2018), land use, vegetation, topographic moisture index, slope, altitude, land lithology, Distance from river, river density, erosion, soil science, runoff, simulated data The average rainfall of HadCM3 model in LARS-WG under SRA1B scenario is estimated between 2011 and 2045. The evaluation criteria used in this study are defined based on parameters such as ME, RMSE, ASE, MSE. The most important criterion for estimating estimates is the square root of the mean error (RMSE). (ME) is the mean of the errors or the mean difference between the estimated value and the value observed at point I. The SWAT model is an extension under ArcGIS software that simulates the main hydrological processes including evapotranspiration, surface runoff, deep infiltration, groundwater flow and subsurface flows by the simulator model. The type of land use in the region, the type of vegetation in the region, the slope values ​​and the length of the slope in different areas, which is used through the Geographic Information System (GIS). The input spatial variables of the SWAT model in this study include the digital elevation model (DEM) information layers, the soil layer with soil texture information, and the land use layer with its descriptive information. Hydroclimatology and numerical variables of SWAT model include daily precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature related to stations inside and outside the basin and the average daily runoff of the basin outlet along with their geographical locations. Simulating large and complex areas with different management strategies can be done without spending a lot of time and money.                  

The results for SRA1B scenario therefore it can be concluded that in general for the next period, the  area under study will face a decrease in average flow rate. By analyzing the obtained results, it can be inferred that the phenomenon of climate change will have tangible effects on the studied  area over time and will change the values ​​of temperature and precipitation parameters and will reduce winter precipitation and increase the temperature of the studied area. results of the future discharge simulation show a decrease in runoff for October under the SRA1B scenario. Therefore, according to the results, it can be stated that in general, the SRA1B scenario predicts a decrease in discharge for the next period compared to the observed discharge. The simulation results of the basin output flow and observational flow measured by architect R2 and NS as well as the uncertainty parameters r-factor, pfactor were evaluated and analyzed. The optimal values ​​of R2 and NS coefficients are one and one. One of the goals of the SWAT model is to To reduce impotence. So that most of the observational data are at the level of 95%. In research, NS coefficient greater than 0.5 and p-factor greater than 0.5 have been introduced as satisfactory values. Examining the changes, it is expected that the runoff will decrease with increasing scenarios. This trend has decreased in RCP4.5, although its limit rainfall has also increased, and in RCP8.5 (with more rainfall) the runoff has increased. The reason for this change is that the incidence of precipitation in RCP4.5 was in summer and early autumn, which despite the high evaporation and lack of snowmelt (according to RCP8.5 which in spring coincides with snowmelt) runoff is less than the next  scenario.                             

Flood risk zoning in the Gorganrood watershed, 345 villages with a population of 275,312 people are at high risk of flooding. square, it has a relatively low potential equal to 1425.46 square kilometers, a very high degree of flood risk equal to 884.68 square kilometers, and finally, an area with a low flood potential equal to 623.12 square kilometers from the entire surface of the Gorganrood watershed. It can also be concluded that most of the basin level equal to 89% is at risk of severe flooding. In all the stations, according to the predictions made by the LARS-WG model, the rainfall for the future scenario has increased in some months and decreased in some months compared to the base period . So that in the summer month, the rainfall will decrease and compared to the winter season, the rainfall will increase compared to the base period. The comparison of the monthly rainfall of the base period (2011-2007) with the rainfall simulated by the HadCM3 model for the SRA1B scenario (2011-2045) also shows a significant increase in rainfall in this series of scenarios in the months of September, October and November. It can be seen with a few changes. which can be investigated in terms of the effects of this phenomenon by studying the average percentage of precipitation changes for the SRA1B scenario in 2 periods; 2011-2045, 2045-2065 also shows the changes in rainfall from August in the period, 2011-2045 to 37.5% in November of the same period compared to the base period. The very high increase of precipitation changes in November can also be investigated and pondered for the cause of autumn floods.