جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « دلفی فازی » در نشریات گروه « علوم سیاسی »

This study was carried out with the aim of investigating and designing scenarios of the future state of political culture in Iran, with a future-oriented approach to the category of political culture, which is the strength and distinction of this work from previous works. Knowing the political culture as a way of drawing people's attitude towards the political system is important because, while creating the conditions for understanding the relationship between the various elements of human life, it is considered to be an indicator of the social and political changes governing the future of a political system as a result of intergenerational transformations.

we used quantitative and qualitative methods and the Petershwartz scenario method to answer the main question. in order to collect information, research literature and documents were reviewed in the form of a library method and a semi-structured interview with a panel of 25experts. the Delphi method was used, and to measure reliability, the structural analysis method based on the interrelationship matrix tables based on Micmac software was used. And to design the scenarios, we benefited from the Scenario Wizard software.

five key uncertainties related to the future state of political culture in Iran: myth-making, seeking justice, Ashura culture and Mahdism, linking religion and politics, and seeking independence, which are based on four cultural-political scenarios of religious democracy, religious exclusivity, and democratic participation. and subordinate-participatory political culture.

Among the 4 proposed scenarios, the scenario of subservient-participatory political culture has the highest probability of occurrence.

Some scholars believe that many of 2010-2015 upheavals in the Middle East are revolutions. However, if we define the revolution in a delicate and traditional meaning and draw off the variety of instability, it isn’t possible to call them revolutions except a few numbers with lots of doubts. But, most of researchers believe that the risk of revolution has always been high and because of this, the its perpetual attention and research is necessary. The Coup d’état is another upheaval which, notwithstanding the revolution, has been taken place a lot. The problem is that some of the Middle East’s Coup d’états tend to absorb the elements of revolution. So, the separating line between the revolution and Coup d’état often become pale. The matter emphasizes researching of it. Among different questions, the reasons of their occurrence have always been an important question. The article by reviewing the Arabic Middle East from 1992 to 2015 and by using the opinions of Iranian experts and the Fuzzy Delphi, found 6 and 4 general and key factors of happening revolution and Coup d’état respectively. These are only 20% of all factors, but have an 80% influence on the happening of it. The matter has functional advantages since time and financial limitations for actors prevent them to control all the factors effectively. So, governmental and non-governmental actors are searching key factors to reduce costs and achieve the most efficiency.

The purpose of this study is to provide a model for stock prices on the Tehran Stock Exchange. Statistical population: The statistical population of this research consists of all companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange Organization from 2006 to 1398. In this research, the sampling method is applied externally. 

First, it was performed in the qualitative section using fuzzy Delphi analysis. In the second stage, EViews software was used for causal effects. Research data are analyzed using generalized torque or GMM technique in panel data.

showed that the variables of accounting information, stock market characteristics, quality of accounting information, specific characteristics of the company, corporate governance mechanisms, characteristics of managers, characteristics of auditors and macroeconomic variables affect stock price changes. Achieving long-term and continuous economic growth requires the equipping and optimal allocation of resources at the level of the national economy, and this is not easily possible without the help of financial markets, especially large and efficient capital markets. Investing in stocks offered on the stock exchange is one of the most lucrative options in the capital market.

The purpose of this paper is to provide a sociological analysis of the effects of social capital on political development. According to theoretical expectations, "social capital" reinforces "political development". To test this theoretical proposition, "social capital" was broken down into three dimensions: "structural", "cognitive" and "communicative", which are divided into seven subscales - "networks", "relationships" and "cooperation", "values", "mutual understanding", "trust" and "commitment" were measured. "Political development" was measured by eight subscales with an emphasis on political participation. The method of this research is fuzzy Delphi. Data were collected using a questionnaire containing pairwise comparisons and scoring based on a five-point Likert scale. According to the results, social capital has different effects on different dimensions of political development, so that it has a differential effect on political participation. In particular, relations, cooperation, and social values play a more decisive role in "political campaigning" than in "political protest." On the other hand, any kind of "interference in changing the political structure" is more possible through "social trust" and "social commitment" than through "social networks". The most important point is that political development in the radical sense, which is aimed at making changes in the political structure, is possible by creating and strengthening social trust and commitment.

Despite the fact that political capital is very important in countries that are based on democracy, Currently due to the lack of attention to political capital, the political trust of citizens in government officials has decreased. Low political capital leads to a decrease in citizen participation and political awareness and a decrease in trust in government officials. Therefore, it is necessary to design the prerequisites of political capital and prioritize these factors, the necessary investment to realize and promote political capital to increase the citizens' trust and conscious participation in those in charge. The existence of a democratic state requires the conscious participation of citizens, which leads to the realization of political capital. The aim of the present study is to analyze, prioritize and present the model of political capital prerequisites. This study from the perspective of goal is practical, and of nature and the method is applied-descriptive and is among mixed studies. In the qualitative section, 11 professors of management and political science through semi-structured interviews, and in the quantitative section, 21 political experts and government officials through paired comparison questionnaires have participated in this study. For coding data Atlas.ti software and prioritizing answers fuzzy Delphi method has been used. The findings of the study show that the domination of interactive culture over the society, decreasing of power distance, increasing of citizen’s social freedom, and political transparency are the most important factors in creating political capital. The results of the study inform officials and political decision-makers about the importance of political capital and provide the basis for increasing the political trust of citizens by strengthening the incentives of political capital.

The purpose of this research is to identify the components of the jihadi management from the perspective of the noble Qur’ān, which is of great importance due to the necessity of applying management that is appropriate to the local, cultural and value foundations of each country. The type of research is descriptive and exploratory in terms of the applied purpose and its method based on the manner of data collection; The nature of research is also intertwined. The statistical population is made up of all the experts and scientific, executive and religious experts in the field of jihadi management whereby 36 experts in the above field were selected by the snowball sampling method. In the present research, the components of jihadi management were extracted from the verses of the noble Qur’ān using the content analysis and data mining methods. Then, the questionnaires provided to the experts were analyzed using the fuzzy Delphi method. In order to determine the relationship between the components agreed upon by the experts, the method of strategic option development and analysis (SODA) was used. Then, by merging the maps of the experts, a single model was adopted, and finally, from the final research model, 33 components of jihadi management agreed upon by the experts, which were in accordance with the 26 components of the Supreme Leader’s orders, were extracted in four dimensions namely: social, economic, political and cultural; the number of the components in the cultural and social dimension indicates the focus of this style of management on the cultural and value fields of management.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of corporate social responsibility model with a combined approach. In the qualitative section, 20 experts and policy makers in the automotive industry in the field of corporate social responsibility participated in semi-structured interviews. After the interviews, the concepts were extracted from the interviews by Maxqda software and the relevant codes were extracted and the main and sub-themes were achieved by establishing a relationship between the extracted codes in the open coding stage and removing duplicate indicators and merging similar indicators. Based on the research results, the components of social responsibility, economic responsibility, environmental responsibility, ethical responsibility, humanitarian responsibility, legal responsibility, brand awareness, brand loyalty, perceived quality and brand association were selected as the central phenomena. The results also show that corporate social responsibility improves internal processes by creating managerial commitment and empowering employees. Improving organizational processes will also improve social and environmental considerations, responsible actions, and consumer support behaviors for the brand. These factors lead to sustainable growth and development of the company and ultimately lead to improved brand equity.

The Arabic Middle East is a region full of instabilities. The coup d’état, war, civil war, riot, strike and terror are some important kinds of these instabilities.Since 2010, not only the quantity and diversity of these changes, but also their risks have been increased.The uprising is one of these instabilities which has been occurred many times in recent years. So, the reasons of these occurrences have always been an important question. Despite of the similarities of this instability and the revolution, it is different. On the other hand, fuzzy methods give us powerful measures to analyze these instabilities. The article by reviewing the Arabic Middle East’s upheavals which have happened after collapse of the Soviet Union and by using the Fuzzy Delphi technique tries to find the main and key factors of the uprisings. At the end, 6 key factors were found.These are only 20% of all factors, but have an 80% influence on the happening of civil war. The matter has specially functional advantages since time and financial limitations for actors prevent them to control all the factors effectively. So, governmental and non-governmental actors are searching key factors to reduce costs and achieve the most efficiency.

Ethnic diversity is one of the most important social issues in national security of Islamic Republic of Iran. It seems that ethnic diversity can be the source of challenge and also can provide opportunities of growth and development for the country and can be a source of power. Each of these ethnic groups has potentially considerable capacities for merging in national merits, political participation and maintenance and protection of the country; therefore, the mentioned threats about the ethnic groups have mostly been for the sake of management problems and they can be diminished by appropriate management of national values and expansion of intergroup fairness. With regard to the role of spirit from the point of view of religious teachings and verification of the hypothesis by statistical society, researchers believe that by inculcation of spirit in the organization, five-sided capacity (confrontation with hard, semi-hard, soft threats, internal deepening and external deepening) for political system of Islam will be shaped. Also, in the final debate with regard to the incorporation of results some suggestions have been provided.