جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « سناریوهای تجزیه عراق » در نشریات گروه « علوم سیاسی »

Iraq has been one of the most challenging countries in Southwest Asia (Middle East) since World War II. Undoubtedly, one of the main reasons for these challenges is the important and decisive role of the Iraqi political situation in the geopolitical space of the region. In the current developments in this region, as in the past, Iraq has a key and decisive role, and this role has led to the clash of actions and interests of various regional and supra-regional powers at this point. The main purpose of this article is to study the future of political stability in Iraq by emphasizing the political and security situation in Iraq and its sub-objectives. It introduced Iraq and the feasibility of the disintegration of Iraq. By designing possible scenarios for the disintegration or non-disintegration of Iraq in the next ten years, the future of this country is predicted as follows: 1) Scenario of disintegration of Iraq 2) Scenario of civil war in Iraq 3) Scenario of fair and democratic distribution of power.

Since the Second World War up to now and in contemporary political history, Iraq was one of the most challenging countries in south west Asia (Middle East). Unmistakable, determinant and important role of Iraq in political conditions in geopolitics of the region is one of the main reasons of these challenges. Like the past, Iraq has the key and determinant role in the current developments of the region. This role will lead to interest and actions conflict among different regional and international powers in this supersensitive region. The main objective of this research is the future of Iraq with respect to political and security conditions of this country. In the context of secondary objectives we can refer to influence of internal, regional and international actors in Iraq’s current developments, predicting territorial future of Iraq and feasibility study of Iraq’s disintegration. Researcher based on the future studies, with respect to the type of current trends and also through the game theory, surveyed the subject. Within analyzing the subject, the role of different actors and alter ant factors in geopolitical scene of Iraq and its impacts on the future and territorial integrity of Iraq is surveyed. Finally after planning probable scenarios about disintegration or non-disintegration of Iraq through the next decade, the future of this country is anticipated as follows: 1- Iraq disintegration scenario 2- Iraq civil war scenario3- democratic and square distribution of power scenario.  At last, the position of actors in respect to mentioned scenarios, before and after ISIS outbreak in Iraq as well as determinant factors of actors’ role in Geopolitical scene of Iraq are surveyed. And finally the result of this research is that: disintegration of Iraq through the next decade is not possible.