جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « Threat Balance » در نشریات گروه « علوم سیاسی »

The presence of the three regional powers of West Asia, Iran, Turkiye, and Israel, in the developments of the South Caucasus (2020-2023), has a direct impact on the interests of all three countries. This suggests the possibility that the results of developments in the South Caucasus will affect the equations of these three countries in West Asia. This is strengthened while the role of the United States of America in West Asia has diminished and has allowed the regional powers of West Asia to compete more for dominance in the region. Therefore, the main research question is how the 2020 and 2023 Karabakh wars in the South Caucasus have affected the equations of West Asia? In response to this hypothesis, it is proposed that the spillover of developments in the South Caucasus has emerged in the form of convergence, creating a balance of threat actors and also intensifying Iran's competition with Turkiye and Israel in Iraq. In this article, the data analysis was descriptive-analytical. The data of this research has been collected using library resources. The findings of the research confirmed the hypothesis that Azerbaijan and the Kurdistan Region have adopted convergence relations and have created a threat balance against the perception of the threat from Iran, in which Turkiye and Israel acted as catalysts. The increase in the threat from Turkiye has brought the PKK and Iraqi popular groups closer to each other and has set a threat balance against the feeling of a common threat from Turkiye

The Middle East as a special security complex due to its ambiguous and complex situation has always been the scene of alliance and competition between the great extra-regional powers and the regional powers, and among them, the countries of Iran and Saudi Arabia as the two determining and possessing powers. Influence in the region, they have the necessary power to shape and influence the relations of the West Asian region. So that it can be clearly seen that the region of West Asia and North Africa is affected by the policies of the two mentioned countries and the quality of their relations with each other. Therefore, the resumption of relations between the two countries, which - after 7 years of complete termination of relations, during five rounds of negotiations in Baghdad and Oman, finally took place on March 10, 2023 with the mediation of China in Beijing and - with the signing of a peace agreement , is very important. This agreement, which has had a wide coverage in the regional and world media due to its many consequences on regional relations, raises many questions about regional issues. In this research, the authors of the work seek to investigate the effect of this special and bilateral agreement on the activism of the Palestinian resistance groups. Therefore, the main question of this research can be posed as "What effect will the agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia have on the activism of the Palestinian resistance groups?". In response to the said question, which the authors of the work came up with a descriptive-analytical approach to answer, such a hypothesis can be proposed that: based on the theory of "structural realism" and also the theory of "Balance of threat", the mentioned agreement..

Abraham Accords by facilitating the normalization of relations between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain paved the way for Israel's presence in the strategic region of the Persian Gulf. One of the reasons for Israel's presence in the Persian Gulf is the common perception of Iran's threat by Israel and the countries of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council. Therefore, Israel's presence in the Persian Gulf has a security-political reason. Israel and other allied actors in the Persian Gulf are looking for a response to the common security concern. Therefore, in this paper, we are looking to analyze the issue of Israel's presence in the Persian Gulf and its impact on the security equations of the Persian Gulf from an analytical perspective. For this purpose, in the course of this article, we will seek to answer the question of how Israel's presence in the Persian Gulf affects the political-security equations of this region. According to the above question, the authors using the descriptive-analytical method have reached the hypothesis that "Israel's presence in the Persian Gulf and its leadership alliance with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain can lead to instability and militarization of the Persian Gulf region, changing the political-security position of the participating actors in cooperation with Israel and intensify domestic and regional security competition in Persian Gulf."

After the developments known as the Arab Spring, the perceptions of the Saudis regarding the increasing power and regional influence of Iran as the main threat changed. On this basis, the Saudis changed their foreign policy from a conservative mode of maintaining the status quo to an aggressive policy, and in this way, the threat balance policy became the dominant approach in the Saudi diplomatic apparatus. Saudi Arabia, exploiting the capacity of terrorist and takfiri groups that grew directly and indirectly from the body of this current; It was considered as one of the most important balancing tools to reduce Iran's influence and regional power and its threats. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to investigate the position of Takfiri terrorism in the balancing strategy of Saudi Arabia's threat against Iran during the years 2011 to 2022. This research has been written in analytical-explanatory method using library and internet sources.The findings of the research indicate that Saudi Arabia has provided various support to Takfiri terrorist groups in order to balance against the threats and influence of Iran in the Middle East, especially in areas such as Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

The concept of nuclear Iran is repeatedly used by theorists and strategic planners of great powers to contain and limit and control Iran's nuclear capability. The main axis of Iran's action in the nuclear process has been aimed at optimizing strategic and tactical capabilities. Some theorists of international politics point to the fact that in 1991 onwards, Iran has improved its nuclear capabilities endlessly.The model of Iran's strategic action in the field of nuclear capability indicates that power building to deal with threats has been a part of Iran's strategic goals in the regional environment. The actors of international politics always tried to place Iran in a space of geopolitical limitation. The reality of regional Iran is dangerous for many actors of the surrounding environment and great powers, and for this reason, the ground has been created to limit Iran's power in the regional environment.The main question of the article is, "In what sense has nuclear Iran been used by the media, strategic study centers, and diplomats of international politics, and what ideas have been placed on the agenda of great powers and international institutions to confront Iran?" The hypothesis of the article refers to the fact that "the concept of nuclear Iran is considered a part of the strategic literature for limiting the power and technical and tactical capabilities of the Islamic Republic, and this has created the basis for limiting Iran's power." Stephen Walt's threat balance approach is used in the organization of the article.

By planning to normalize relations with the Arab countries of the region in the form of the Abraham Peace Treaty, the Zionist regime is trying to put pressure on its rival and enemy in the Middle East region, i.e. Iran (issue). The above research analyzes the effects of Israel's influence in the Middle East and its effect on Iran's axis of influence as the most important strategic competitor of this country (goal). It seems that Israel's attempt to normalize relations with the Arabs and expand its influence in the Middle East region (Iran's peripheral environment) is based on the balance of threats, prevention of regional influence and confrontation and reduction of Iran's strategic strength and depth in its national-regional environment. (Hypothesis). The current research is of a fundamental-applied type, with a qualitative-interpretive method and a descriptive-analytical approach and compiled in a library manner. Also, for the theoretical framework of this research, Stephen Walt's threat balance theory has been used (method, framework). Israel's strategic-security alignment with America and the Western-Arab alliance and Iran's identity-ideological conflicts with the existence of Israel, any increase in its presence in Iran's security environment in various ways such as political, military, economic security, cultural-social and technical and Technological is considered as a reduction of Iran's influence and influencing power, and it is naturally considered a threat to Iran's national-regional security in the area of influence (findings).

Turkey does not have a stable position in the Mediterranean Sea and has ups and downs. More than half of Ankara's foreign trade is carried out through the Mediterranean Sea. This article is saying about a correct and better understanding of Turkey's strategic reorientation in the Mediterranean, in the other word change of its tradition strategy to the doctrine of the Blue Homeland, in order to answer the question of what is the basis of Turkey's new sterategic politics in the Mediterranean Sea. The article examines the hypothesis that Turkey's interests and threats in the Mediterranean will cause it to adopt limited aggressive policies. This research is based on the threat balance theory. The method of this research is qualitative data analysis. The findings of the research show that due to the existence of threatening variables in the Mediterranean, Turkey tried to balance the threat against the Mediterranean border countries by implementing its strategic policies in this area, and thereby reduce the threats against it self and increase its security.

The Syrian crisis, undoubtedly, has been one of the most important milestone in the Middle East developments in the last two decades and the center of meeting the aims and interests of numerous regional and international actors. In the meantime, the Zionist regime was focused on the opportunities of this crisis, although it was initially focused on the prospect that this crisis would weaken or topple the Syrian political system and collapse the resistance axis in the region, but as time went on, it perceived challenges and threats emanating from this crisis more effectively in managing the crisis. in this context, the direct and direct presence of the islamic republic of iran in syria and along the borders of occupied Palestine became one of the priorities of the national security threat. Within this framework, the paper seeks to answer the question that the occurrence of the Syrian crisis followed by the presence of the Islamic Republic of Iran in this country, what threats are facing the Zionist regime? the results of this study show that the long - standing presence of the islamic republic of iran along with the borders of occupied Palestine and especially the opening of the third front of resistance in the Golan, created an extension of iran's geopolitical influence in levant and increasing the power of this regime under the israel area. Moreover, the continued presence of Iran in Syria does not only reinforce the ties of the Islamic Republic of Iran with the field currents of resistance, but it will allow for its effectiveness on the Palestinian refugees living in Levant, which can confront the Zionist regime in many internal and external challenges.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, NATO, in the developments of the past decades, has had a clear presence in global security agreements for the benefit of the West and against the powers that are critical and opposed to the system of domination and maintaining the American status quo. This organization has gradually changed its policy from a defensive approach to an offensive approach in order to realize the political-security goals of the West - especially after 2001 - and has expanded its security umbrella to various regions of the world in an expansionist way with the aim of weakening its enemies. In the meantime, the countries that are not members of this pact, but place themselves on the side close to this organization in the game and global political-security conflicts in different regions, often become a victim of its expansionism against the big critical actors of this organization and the political-security order. Based on this, from the point of view of this article and focusing on the issue of Ukraine, the main question is raised that "Has NATO's policies towards the war in Ukraine been the cause of the continuation of this crisis?" In response to this question, the hypothesis has been proposed that "interventionist and expansionist policies under the provision of global security have caused a country like Ukraine, which is placed between NATO and an emerging actor like Russia, to use this organization as a tool to weaken Russia and as a result of the Ukraine war, will become the main victim of NATO's policies towards Russia. The findings of the thesis also show that Ukraine is a country that is now playing the role of prey and victim in the Western conflict with Russia, and NATO is playing it in a complex political-security game with the aim of continuing its security expansionism, maintaining the status quo and preventing the emergence of a new global challenger like Russia to caught in a long conflict.

Iran and Turkey have a unique geopolitical and geostrategic position in the region. The Syrian crisis affected the regional equations and the relations of the countries of the region, including Iran and Turkey. The developments in Syria affected and changed the framework of relations between Iran and Turkey as a regional power. Therefore, the main question is raised, what effect have the developments in Syria had on the regional relations between Iran and Turkey in order to become a regional power? In this article, it is tried to investigate and analyze the dimensions of the above issue and question in the framework of regional power balance theory and using descriptive-analytical methods. The findings of the current research show that the developments in the Arab world, especially the developments in Syria, have intensified the regional competition between Iran and Turkey, in the form of the formation of regional and trans-regional alliances and alliances with the environment of Iran and Syria, Syria and Russia, which in one On the other side of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Salafi groups were located. Also, Turkey's inability in this direction led to the promotion of Iran's regional position and the modification of Turkey's regional policy.

The Israeli regime has always been dissatisfied with the lack of space and geographic confinement on the shores of the Mediterranean Sea, and this regime needs to institutionalize the Iranophobic approach in order to consolidate its strategic depth and have more relations with the Arab countries. Establishing a close and strategic relationship between the Arabs and Israel brings this regime closer to Iran's borders, because it enables Israel to border Iran's maritime and territorial waters indirectly. Being close to the border with Iran means ease in surveillance, eavesdropping and information espionage.The main question of the research is what effect does the process of normalizing relations between Arabs and Israel have on the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran? (problem); The research method is qualitative and the data collection tool is in the form of questionnaires, the main problem is analyzed with an analytical-documentary approach (method); The normalization of Arab-Israeli relations affects Iran's national security from various angles, which include factors such as the weakening of Iran's regional allies, the development and expansion of America's presence and influence in the region, the lack of regime formation and Stable security arrangements in the Middle East are the disruption of the balance of power structure and the growth of radical and extremist groups in the region (findings);

Expansion of NATO and the EU to the East created an atmosphere of strategic uncertainty in Western government relations with Russia, at the cost of intensification of security issue all over Central Eurasia and prompted Moscow into taking tough, and in some cases inconsistent with regional peace and stability, decisions. In these conditions, the convergence of the governments desiring change of global governance can alleviate the aggressive behavior towards the arrogance system and pursue the concept of change in the status quo in a more peaceful manner. The present paper explains this approach based on the impact of “Iran’s Special Ties with Russia in Strategic Spheres” on “Predictability of Moscow Behaviors and Alleviation of Security Challenge in Central Eurasia due to Change of Equation of Russia’s Foreign and Defense Policy from Offence to Defense.” Thus, the paper is seeking a proper answer for the question “What are the reasons and Channels of Iran’s impact on Russian change of approach from offence to defense, and therefore, alleviation of security issues in Central Eurasia?”  The primary answer of the paper to the question lies in “Natural Alliance of Iran and Russia”, and the main reason of Iran’s influence on the development in the Offence-Defense equation of Russia is the “common threats and concerns of Iran and Russia from the West and compatibility of the two countries’ interests in stopping western expansionism in the northern and Western borders”. The current paper is of the Analytical-Descriptive type and the method used is inferential and the findings of the paper which are mostly analyzed based on references to objective-historical evidence and logical reasoning are proof of the truth of the primary answers.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 is the largest military mobilization in Europe since World War II. The intervention and increasing influence of the West (the United States, the European Union and its military arm NATO) in the fields of Russian security has created serious and vital concerns for this country, so that theorists such as Stephen Walt believe that the path followed by Western governments is the perception of Russia. It strengthens the threat, especially NATO's eastward expansion is a serious provocation that has reduced the level of mutual trust. Therefore, Moscow imagines that the sphere of influence and private life of this country is getting narrower day by day. With this description, the study by using the theoretical approach of Stephen Walt's threat balance based on 4 indicators: 1) overall power, 2) geographical proximity, 3) offensive power and 4) offensive intentions tries to answer the main question of what causes and motives of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 are? The findings of the research show that the understanding of threats and dangers caused by the movements and actions of the United States and NATO in Eastern Europe and especially in Ukraine has caused Putin's determination to counter NATO's advance to become aggressive and ultimately cause Russia's invasion of Ukraine

The continuous trend of the rise of China and India, has taken their competition to regional fields and both governments consider the seat of superior power in Asia the prelude for turning into a Global Power. While the publication that has been done on Sino-Indian relations mostly focus on its relations to great powers specially The US, the new wave of regional Sino-Indian competition in the era of "Major connectivity initiatives" has not received the ample attention. This article uses the descriptive-explanatory method to analyze the Sino-Indian relations outside of systemic level of power and under the influence of Belt and road Initiative (BRI) and series of balancing measures taken by India on regional level. To answer the question of "what was the impact of BRI on Sino-Indian relations between 2013-2022? This article hypothesize that BRI has posed serious threat for India and has made it to take balancing measures. It is argued that India in response to alleged violation of its sovereignty on Kashmir Region, geopolitical containment by China and concerns over a looming China centric new order has used its old policy change in Kashmir, official opposition to BRI and offering regional initiatives countering the BRI as India’s balancing measures against BRI. The findings of this article, while confirming the relative compatibility of BRI and Walt's balance of threat theory, introduce new windows for reconstructing the validity of this theory.

The Middle East is one of the most important international regions that has undergone profound and wide-ranging changes in recent years, especially after the Arab uprisings (2011), the UAE, despite its extensive relations with the Zionist regime over the years, as the third Arab country, officially declared its relations with the Zionist regime in September 2020, leaving behind a domino of normalization of relations between the Arabs and the Zionist regime. Moved from 26 years. In this framework, this article seeks to answer the main question, what are the most important influencing variables in making public relations between the United Arab Emirates and the Zionist regime, and what effect does this issue have on the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran? The findings of this article, emphasizing the balance of threats, show that balancing against the axis of resistance (and especially Brotherhood groups), thinking about the post-American Middle East and fearing Washington's policies, attracting American support and using Zionist lobbies, as well as benefiting from the benefits The technology of the Zionist regime is considered the main and influential variables in making public relations between the United Arab Emirates and the Zionist regime. Such an event has created a new geopolitical atmosphere for the Islamic Republic of Iran, which in the future can have an impact on the national power and regional influence of the resistance axis led by Iran.

With the Islamic Awakening in 2011, popular protests in Yemen began with protests against government plans, with protesters calling for changes to the constitution, unemployment rate, economic conditions, corruption and reform.Taking the lead of the protests by the Ansarullah movement, Saudi Arabia, realizing the threat of a Shiite movement gaining power along its borders, and interpreting it as the influence of the Iran, launched a war against Yemen. Along with Saudi Arabia, the developments in Yemen are also important for the israel. Because from the point of view of this regime, if Ansarullah dominates the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the Islamic Resistance Front will be strengthened more than before and the security of Israel will be endangered. Iran has been the main supporter of the Ansarullah movement in line with its foreign policy goals and principles. Despite Iran's ideological support for the Houthi Shiites, Iran has a strategic logic in supporting the Yemeni Ansarullah movement. The main question of this research is what is the strategic effective factor of the protectionist policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran against Ansarullah Yemen? To answer this question, the theoretical framework of threat balance has been used. The main hypothesis that answers this question is that what led to the convergence and unity of Iran and Ansarullah in Yemen was their understanding of the common threat of Saudi Arabia and the israel.

One of the issues that has always affected Iran's national security is the US military intervention in the Persian Gulf region. Today, this country is the biggest extra-regional threat in the Persian Gulf against Iran's national security. Iran has always strived to maintain and enhance its deterrent capability against the US military presence in the Persian Gulf region. This study seeks to answer the question of what is the role of the Islamic Republic of Iran in deterring the US military presence in the Persian Gulf region? Using descriptive-analytical method to test the hypothesis and library method and taking notes to collect data and use the statements of the theory of threat balance, This result was obtained that the Islamic Republic of Iran while making optimal use of its geopolitical and geostrategic position in The Persian Gulf region, with the development of its naval, air, land and missile power, along with the use of asymmetric warfare strategy and the use of proxy forces, as well as pursuing friendship diplomacy with the countries of the Persian Gulf region, has sought to implement a no-access strategy in the Persian Gulf region to create an effective balance of threat against the threat of US military presence, to increase its deterrent power against this country, especially in the military field. The actions of the Islamic Republic of Iran strengthened the national security of this country and, in turn, posed a serious challenge to the effective US military presence in the Persian Gulf region.

The Syrian geopolitical crisis is one of the most important security challenges that has affected the Middle East over the past decade. Given the importance of this issue, the present study seeks to answer the question: how have the conflicts of the Syrian geopolitical crisis affected the national security of the Islamic Republic? The article hypothesizes that the Syrian crisis has dimensions beyond political dissatisfaction and ethnic and religious challenges, and is rooted in negative interference and geopolitical rivalries for regional and supra-regional power. Relying on the theory of threat balance, the results indicate the geopolitical threats of the Islamic Republic in the military, political, cultural, social and economic fields and consequences such as increasing ethnic and sectarian threats in the country, the emergence and strengthening of takfiri terrorist groups in Iran, increasing border threats, increasing the presence of supra-regional powers, changing the balance of regional powers and weakening the axis of resistance.

The Zionist regime's relations with the Arab countries of the region during the last seven decades can be easily compartmentalized into four distinct periods. Animosity, peace-seeking, covert security and information cooperation, and revealing and extension of both quality and quantity of the relations have been parts of the constant pattern of the Zionist regime's relations with the Arab countries of the region during these four periods of time. During the recent years, influenced by a few factors and circumstances, the Zionist regime tried to seriously continue its quest for normalization of relations with the Arab countries of the region inside the framework of proposals such as "Deal of the Century" (Trump's Middle East Peace Plan) and the "Abraham Accord". Normalization and emergence of actual diplomatic relations with the United Arab Emirate and Bahrain and preparing grounds for normalizing this regime's relations with Oman, Sudan, Morocco and even the Saudi Arabia are signs of development in the Zionist regime's project of normalization of relations with the Arab countries. 165 سال پنجم -شماره نوزدهم-زمستان 1399 Abstract Since the normalization of relations between Zionist regime and the Arab countries of the region and their move towards strategic cooperation can well influence the power structure and relations in the region and pose some threats against the Islamic Republic of Iran and the axis of resistance, an urgency is felt to scrutinize Zionist regime's goals of persistently seeking to normalize its relations with the Arab countries of the region and the results stemming from applying this strategy. The present paper, using the library research method for gathering data and applying the descriptive-analytical approach in finding analysis, is seeking to find the answer to this question: "What are the goals and results of the normalization project in the relations between the Zionist regime and the regional Arab countries?" The findings of the paper indicate that a few of the Zionist regime's goals in normalizing the relations with the Arab countries include reaching a common understanding of the threat, confronting the common threat (i.e. Iran), and also dealing with the new geopolitical system which is getting formed in favor of the axis of resistance. The process of normalizing the relations with the Arab countries would help the Zionist regime to have more presence, influence and agency in the security environment around the Islamic Republic of Iran and could also increase the threat levels against the Islamic Republic of Iran. The favorable results of the process of normalization of re lations with the Arab countries for the Zionist regime are as follows: Enhancing the success rate of the project of making all Iranian issues security issues; boosting the Zionist regime and regional Arab countries' motivation and confidence in dealing with the Islamic Republic of Iran and, consequently, an increase in the level of conflict of these countries with the Islamic Republic of Iran and raising the legitimacy of the Zionist regime in the region.

Global developments indicate a new crisis in the new world order. For a long time, the United States, as the hegemonic power, had shaped the international order on a unipolar order. The results of the study emphasize that the coronavirus has changed the theories and narratives of macro and political wisdom to the basic concepts of politics and political science; As the attitude towards the government, especially its function, changed radically. But now the world is facing events that have challenged this unipolar order, in other words, American hegemony. In this article, we seek to answer the question of what parameters of theories of international relations are the reasons for the decline of US hegemony in the period 2003 to 2020? The hypothesis that has been put forward is that the United States, because of the unilateral policies it has pursued in recent decades, and on the other hand the emergence of great powers such as China and the current crisis in the economic and political spheres. , The military and culture are weakening and the hegemonic power of this country is declining. This research is based on Laclau and Moff discourse analysis method and the method used in it is descriptive-analytical.