جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « آینده پژوهی » در نشریات گروه « علوم اجتماعی »

After the occurrence of the World Wide Web, the Internet of Things can be the next revolution due to the significant increase of the Internet, and this structure seeks to create a bridge between the real and virtual worlds, which has the ability to create an integrated network of billions of objects with the ability to connect wirelessly to each other to exchange information. So Considering the importance of internet of things in today's schools, the current research was conducted with the aim of investigating the status of internet of things development in schools based on the future research. 

This research in terms of purpose was practical and in terms of implementation method was quantitative. The research population were education managers and planners and officials of universities of Tehran city in the academic years of 2021-2022, which 281 people of them were selected as a sample by cluster sampling method. The tool of the current research was a researcher-made questionnaire of internet of things development in schools based on the future research with 26 items, which whose data were analyzed by exploratory factor analysis and one sample t-test in SPSS-26 software. 

The findings of the exploratory factor analysis showed that the internet of things development in schools based on the future research has 26 items in 7 components of removing time restrictions (with three items of connection per hour, unlimited use and offline use), removing location restrictions (with four items of use in any place, use at school and home, use without special equipment and ability to use a computer), reducing infrastructure costs (with four items of sharing of training, direct transfer of training, eliminating special infrastructure facilities and direct connection to the system), knowledge management (with three items of knowledge creation, knowledge transfer and knowledge distribution), professional competence (with three items of cognitive competence, knowledge competence and skill competence), information technology (with three items of information flow automation, easy access to information and changing the shape of the organization) and effectiveness of educational system (with six items of efficient education, behavior patterns appropriate to time, talent-oriented appropriate to future needs, matching school input with future expectations, satisfactory educational process and providing satisfactory educational services appropriate to future needs). In this study, the factor loading of all 26 items was higher than 0.40, the factor loading of all 7 components was higher than 0.50, their average variance extracted was higher than 0.60, and their Cronbach and combined reliability was higher than 0.70. Also, the results of the one sample t-test showed that the average of all 7 components significantly was higher than the assumed average of the society (P<0.001). 

Considering the importance of internet of things in schools and since the amount of all its components was slightly higher than the assumed average of the society, it is suggested that based on the questionnaire of the current research design and implement efficient and practical programs for the internet of things development in schools based on the future research.

This research answers these questions: Who are the influential actors in the field of health communication in Iran and what issues and concerns are controvercial in this area? Joint interviews with groups conducted with relevant members shows that eleven institutions and individuals are involved in the issue as actors. Also, according to the main purpose of the research on the subject, it is around six key controvercial issues. The mutual influence of the actors, the competition of each of the actors towards the goals, the convergence and divergence of the actors and the relationship of the actors with each of the goals have been analyzed using Mactor's theory-method. The findings show that the most important strategic health actors in the field of media are communication Also, according to the competition of communication players, iT engineers, media, future research researchers and health startups are the strongest players respectively. From the point of view, the ratio of actors to goals is also among the goals proposed by the actors, the explanation and evaluation of remote medicine and the explanation of accompanying health evaluation are of greater importance and priority. From the point of view of actors, explaining, evaluating and formulating social criteria is the least important and the last priority. From the perspective of convergence among actors, the strongest convergence in the future of health communication is between the Ministry of Health, medical assistants and future research researchers, and from the perspective of divergence, there is a greater distance between the two goals of explaining companion health assessment and explaining and evaluating remote medicine. This means that these two goals in the future field of health communication are not aligned with each other.

Just as none of the diseases can be eradicated, delinquency and crime cannot be completely eradicated. But it is possible to reduce the causes of crime and prevent it by taking preventive measures, including identifying the background of crimes, future research of crimes and correct punishments.According to its purpose, this research is applied, and in terms of its method, it is a descriptive and survey research that is conducted in the field. In this research, after preparing the conceptual framework, the appropriate measurement tool (questionnaire developed by the researcher), after interviewing the organizational experts regarding the research topic, the interview process started from the first person and until the researcher did not reach the same answers regarding his questions, the interview process continued. will continue. But when the researcher reaches a theoretical sufficiency and saturation in the answers to the proposed questions and also the continuation of the interview leads to the same and similar answers and results, the interview ends at this time. In the present study, after interviewing 12 experts and managers of the statistical population who have dealt with preventive measures and employee crimes in somed, and Cronbach's alpha coefficient was used for its reliability. Data analysis was done with statistical methods and using SPSS software. The results of the analysis showed that paying attention to the livelihood and economic status of employees is the most important factor in preventing the occurrence of crimes by police officers of the province, and the opposite of that, livelihood problems are one of the most important factors in causing crime by employees. Regarding the future of the crimes of police officers of the province, the results of the research also showed the future of crimesPolice is moving towards financial and economic crimes (extortion, extortion, embezzlement, collection of illegal money,.

The idea of ​​media governance despite the growth and expansion of media in collective and social dimensions has been strengthened to the extent that it is said that in the near future, media and governance in this area will be considered the most challenging issue of the country. Therefore, the necessity of drawing an effective policy framework for dynamic media governance is emphasized. The necessity of raising this issue is also because we know that the media challenges from the enemies of the Islamic Republic of Iran system are increasing day by day, and therefore we need dynamic media governance and policy making in this field. This issue has received more attention due to the idea of ​​media deterrence.In fact, the country of Iran has always been and is the target of attacks by the enemies, due to its religious dimensions and revolutionary inspirational framework; Especially, with the growth of media in collective and social dimensions, the extent of these attacks in this field is more visible. Therefore, with the expansion of the influence of mass and social media, the importance of management in this field is emphasized more. According to such a problem, the importance of deterrence in the field of media is raised. The media governance approach is also emphasized.However, what is being questioned from the perspective of academic and elite studies is what kind of policy framework can be imagined for media governance and also whether the media field is receptive to the concept of governance or not? From another point of view, is it possible to imagine a policy framework and model for media governance, and if so, how is this possible? Also, what challenges will there be in this path? These issue-oriented questions are becoming more frequent due to the fact that a policy framework and model for media governance has not yet been considered. In addition, conceptualization in this field has not been done due to the newness of the field. Therefore, the issue of examining the challenges of drawing a policy model in media governance is considered more. As far as the issue of media governance is raised.With the aim that if the Islamic Republic of Iran is going to experience a favorable media governance in the path of realizing the new Islamic civilization, it should have a policy model in this direction. It is obvious that there are definitely challenges in the way of realizing and formulating this model.Therefore, the purpose of this article is to emphasize the necessity and attention to media governance and examine the threats, requirements and challenges that should be considered in the political path. Therefore, in this article, an attempt has been made to answer the main question, what are the challenges in designing the political model of media governance in the country? In this regard, the qualitative method of in-depth interview and foundational data theory is used to advance the research. In order to further investigate and deepen the issue, as well as to maintain a distance and avoid prejudice, with a set of experts and professors in the field of media policy and management, in the form of an in-depth and open interview, information was obtained on the subject in question, and finally in the form of a method Ground theory was launched; It is obvious that what is meant by grounded theory is the theory derived from the data collected systematically during the research process. In fact, instead of starting the study from a preconceived theory, it is calculated from the analyzed data. The work process was such that after a lot of study and review, and benefiting from the opinions of consultants and experts in the field of media policy, an in-depth interview process was conducted with 12 of the experts; The interview with snowball sampling progressed to the point that after talking with the tenth person, the data reached the saturation stage and the interviewees did not bring up anything new. The theoretical sampling guide is the questions and comparisons that are made during the analysis. and the analysis of interviews with people were revealed and led to the discovery of appropriate categories, characteristics and dimensions. In the grounded theory method, the process of going back and forth between data and their analysis is done continuously and continues until theoretical saturation is reached. Also, before coding, the typed interview text was returned to the interviewee to review and confirm the concepts if they are correct. Also, expert supervision technique was used. Finally, coding was developed in the form of a paradigm model composed of background conditions, causal conditions and intervening conditions, processes and consequences around the central category. Based on the findings of this article, discursive, political, institutional, cultural and elite, legal and emerging phenomena components are among the challenging axes in the field under investigation.in fact, The data obtained from elite opinions indicated that 7 discursive, cultural, legal, scientific and academic, political, institutional and emerging components are known as challenges in the field of designing a political model of media governance. The opinion of the elites was also confirmed that media governance is a multifaceted category that requires the creation of effective media infrastructures and then institutions and finally strengthening the media policy cycle. To achieve this goal, experts have proposed strategies such as: strengthening the media, convergence between media policymakers, and increasing synergy between the media and the public. According to the opinion of the elites, the conditions of the policy cycle in the field of media are related to discourse, meaning and concept, which should be fluidly and purposefully strengthened. In the meantime, if we take advantage of the rich concepts and popular goals such as moving towards a new Islamic civilization, the direction of the media will be more effective and, as a result, the result will be achieved faster. In general, we need a stable and strong media for media governance, and we need good policies to model. We must consider everything that was raised in the mining challenge as a prerequisite for obtaining strong tools and a policy platform so that we can reach the field of conceptualization in the field of governance

The problem of reducing the fertility rate in recent decades in Iran and formulating appropriate policies to improve it has been one of the main challenges of policymakers in the social sphere. The purpose of the current research is to study the future of the population of the province until 1420 based on possible scenarios. For this purpose, in order to achieve the goal of the research, while determining the required assumptions, using the secondary analysis method and with the help of Spectrum software, population forecasting is done by age, gender, urban and rural groups for the cities of the province. done. The selected scenario is based on the continuation of the current trend of fertility, mortality and migration of the province. The future demographic developments of the province show that the population of the province has structurally entered the stage of old age and the share of the elderly population will increase significantly and the population under 15 years will decrease and this will cause problems in the regeneration process. Such a trend can be observed among the cities of the province.

One of the most important professional concerns regarding the protests of the fall of 2022 is the future of these developments and their impact on the country's political stability and political changes. Based on this, the main question of the current article is what is the future of the political order established in Iran, under the influence of the changes that happened after the death of Mahsa Amini, in the medium term? For this purpose, by using a set of theories and paying attention to Iran's specific conditions and field developments after the occurrence of social unrest, the propellers of fundamental legal-political developments were identified in the three areas of society, government and international conditions. The approach of this prospective study and its methodological strategy is "retrospective" and its data has been collected by referring to experts. In order to implement the hindsight technique, a specific scenario that involves fundamental changes in the structure and content of the political system is considered as the studied situation that has "the most consequences and the least probability", then 43 propellers are extracted from the popular theories in the literature of sociology of the revolution. Protests and social movements came to their opinion to state their importance for predicting the realization of the desired scenario, the extent of its realization in the current conditions (2022) and the possibility of its realization, promotion and deepening in the horizon of 2025. The general results indicate that a limited part of the propellants will probably be realized in the future, but this does not mean that the desired scenario will be realized. Clearly, due to the coherence, will and ability of the political system, it is not possible to realize the scenario of fundamental change in the medium term horizon.

Gen Alpha, as the most materially endowed generation ever, have completely different beliefs and expectations due to their varied lived experiences and emerging trends in society. Born between 2010 and 2024, this is known as the youngest generation. In the near future, they will enter the workplace and create a different world, and therefore it is necessary to know their characteristics and perceptions of future jobs and workplaces. In this regard, the aim of this research is to examine the job concept from the perspective of Gen Alpha, which can be a useful source for managerial decisions in various fields, including educational institutions, as well as human resource management and organizational culture in the future. The research data was collected using the WDST (write, draw, show and tell) method and finally analyzed using the thematic analysis. The results showed that Gen Alpha have personality and behavioral characteristics such as creativity, adherence to human and moral values, transsexual perspective, adventure, leadership and a strong connection with technology. This generation has little desire for fixed salary jobs and will be more inclined towards entrepreneurship, leading to work teams and technology-related professions such as metaverse, robotics and artificial intelligence. Here, its implications for educational institutions and future work environments are discussed and strategies are proposed.

Crimes have changed from the beginning of life and with the change of societies. Along with the change in crime, the methods of criminalization have also changed and the traditional methods have changed to scientific methods The need to change security criminalization methods that are directly related to security and public comfort, along with the development and expansion of technology and change in the dimensions and components of crime and criminals, is so double that the lack of process design, appropriate to the threats and opportunities of these developments; Criminalization will face many problems in the future. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to explain the future scenarios of security criminalization in NAJA.

In this research, using the method of scenario writing and using the technique of cross-impact analysis, the key factors (drivers) affecting the future of security criminalization in NAJA were identified and possible situations of these factors were used as the main factors in scenario writing.

The results indicate that two key factors: the development of social networks and the dominance of cyberspace over people's lives and the rapid pace of change in society and its impact on culture; Of the nineteen identified factors, they will have the greatest impact on the future of security criminalization. Then, with the analysis performed by the scenario wizard software, two strong scenarios and six believable scenarios; It was extracted based on nine possible situations related to two key factors.

The expansion of urbanization, followed by the specific problems of urban life, has made it increasingly necessary for the city administration to pay attention to useful strategies and solutions to optimize the lives of citizens. Urban management is intertwined with the daily lives of citizens. Any decision made about the city will have a direct or indirect financial and psychological impact on citizens. The present study examines and studies the performance of integrated city management on social security and welfare with the same perspective. For this purpose, 43 indicators have been designed in three dimensions (integrated management, security and social welfare). The results show that there is a significant relationship between integrated management and security and welfare at the level of sig = 0. Also, the performance of indicators indicating 10 factors (existence of coordination between executive organizations in providing better urban services, paving the way for citizens to invest in urban development, creating sustainable urban revenue sources and not relying on traditional revenue sources such as tolls and density sales, facilitating administrative processes - Life, reduction of vulnerable urban spaces, adaptation of uses, improvement of public transportation services, responsibility, employment, urban services) have been key. Also, the results of scenario writing show 4 strong scenarios, 780 weak scenarios, and 21 possible scenarios, which among the possible scenarios, the desired situation shows the highest probability of realization compared to othersituations.

The existence of emerging elements and phenomena in the field of media and news requires that the type of policy making in this field is dynamic and fluid. For this reason, in the era of diverse, numerous and full of uncertainties, the range of surprises for media policymakers is increasing And therefore, to optimize the media policy cycle, it has always been suggested to use the knowledge and tools of future research. In fact, future studies can fill the gaps in the field of media policy.This important thing will be possible by using the tools and methods of this knowledge. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to introduce and examine future research tools that can be useful in the field of media policy. In this article, it has been tried to answer the main question, what are the capacities of future research tools in media policy making? In this regard, qualitative library method has been used to advance the research and data collection tools have been used from different sources. Based on the data of this article, it is necessary to solve the existing challenges in this field in order to make optimal use of future research capacities in media policy making. In this regard, the scientific institutionalization of futurism is proposed with the aim of creating a foundation for the link between the two sciences of futurism and media policy.

As one of the most prominent cultural elements of the country, the press has played an effective role in guiding, managing and representing public opinion and shaping the historical, social and political events of societies. Today, due to the rapid growth of new technologies and the emergence of different messengers in the virtual space, various formats for transmitting messages and information have been made available to the public. This has caused some people to talk about the end of the era of print media and the domination of virtual space in the field of communication.On the other hand, some people also believe that the press and virtual space are two different formats, that the future life of one does not depend on the other, and each of them can affect the social space according to specific social and historical conditions. In this article, while examining the mentioned ideas, we seek to emphasize and show the specificity of the press as one of the most effective media in terms of content in the present and future era with a sociological and future research perspective and using a documentary and historical approach. Let's say that what is changing and transforming is the format and means of message transmission, and the press, if it logically understands the progress of technology and the ever-increasing changes in message transmission formats, as a main and important source of content production, will still have authority and guidance in the fields of It is considered social.

In this article, the concept of "alternative history" will be introduced, which is notisable concept in the fields of history, literature and futures studies. "Alternative history" is also known as "counterfactual history ", "virtual history", "echronia", etc. and is both a literary-media genre and an "alternative" way of thinking and writing. In the alternative history, by posing the questions "What if...?", it is possible to rethink the past developments. In the field of "futures studies", one of the main goals is to identify alternative futures, and practicing alternative pasts is a suitable method for training in alternative thinking. Conventional futures studies scenarios are different alternatives to get from the present to the future, and in "alternative history" different scenarios are drawn from the past to the present. But how is this subject can be related to the history of the press? One of the appropriate sources for operationalizing this method in the fields of history and futures studies is using the press archive. That part of the press archive, especially newspapers, which is available, is a good source for knowing the path of contemporary historical events. The path of events is documented in the press archive and can be extracted. After extracting the path of the event developments from the past until now, it is possible to draw different hypothetical paths and arrive at "alternative history". In order to properly benefit from the press archive, there are considerations that I will address in this article.

One of the topics discussed in policy studies is the use of future-oriented approaches and the use of future research knowledge and tools. It is a matter of consensus that if policy studies are done without relying on future-oriented approaches, successive gaps and deficiencies in the policy cycle will become frequent. This issue is more important in cultural policymaking due to the importance of the category of culture and due to the layered nature of uncertainties and variables. However, there have always been challenges in the relationship between the knowledge of future research and policy making, which has made the platform for policy making use of future research unbalanced. The purpose of this article is to examine the challenges of using future research knowledge in the policy cycle, and the main question is what challenges are there in the process of using future research knowledge in the cultural policy cycle?To advance the research, the library method and the qualitative method of in-depth interviews and the data theory of the foundation have been used. This research has been written with a practical approach, based on its findings, the challenges of using futures research knowledge in the context of policymaking are more related to the lack of scientific institutionalization of futures research than it is related to the institutional and political levels, which is directly and indirectly related to the educational culture component It is related.

Knowledge management plays an important role in the growth and development of various organizations, especially educational organizations. Therefore, the aim of this study was investigating the impact of future study development indicators of knowledge management in Islamic Azad Universities of Tehran province. The current research in terms of purpose was applied and in terms of implementation method was cross-sectional. The research population was all the members of the faculty and teaching staff of the faculties of educational sciences of the Islamic Azad Universities of Tehran province in the 2022-2023 academic years with number of 210 people. The research sample based on the Krejcie and Morgan table was estimated to be 160 people, who were selected by stratified random sampling method. The research tool was a researcher-made questionnaire of future study development of knowledge management (67 items), whose face validity was confirmed by academic experts and its reliability was calculated using Cronbach's alpha method 0.92. Data were analyzed with exploratory factor analysis and structural equations in SPSS version 23 and LISREL version 8.7 software. The findings showed that the future study development of knowledge management has 67 items in 14 factors and 6 dimensions of organizational structure and information technology infrastructure as causal factors, effective cultural platforms on the development of future study and management strategies as underlying factors, alignment of the university with the changing needs of society and higher education as intervening factors, knowledge creation, knowledge sharing, knowledge application and knowledge policies storage as central phenomenon, transformation in the educational system and the institutionalization of foresight and policy making as strategies and the development of organizational awareness and human resource productivity as consequences; So that all factors had a content validity ratio was higher than 0.70, average variance extracted was higher than 0.5, and Cronbach's reliability was higher than 0.80. The model of future study development indicators of knowledge management in Islamic Azad Universities of Tehran province had a good fit. In this model, each of the factors has a direct and significant effect on the underlying factors, and causal factors had a direct and significant effect on the underlying factors, intervening factors and central phenomenon, underlying factors, intervening factors and central phenomenon had a direct and significant effect on the strategies and underlying factors, central phenomenon and strategies had a direct and significant effect on the consequences (P<0.001). The results of this study can be used by managers and officials of educational systems, especially in the higher education system with the aim of future study development of knowledge management in order to create a competitive advantage.

Considering the importance of entrepreneurship in the metaverse era, especially with a future research approach, the present research was conducted with the aim of establishing an entrepreneurial model with a future research approach in the metaverse era in knowledge-based companies in the field of information technology. The current research in terms of purpose was applied and in terms of implementation method was mixed (qualitative-quantitative). The research population in the qualitative part was university faculty members and managers of knowledge-based companies in the field of information technology, which number of 17 people of them according to the principle of theoretical saturation were selected as a sample by purposive sampling method. The research population in the quantitative part was the employees and managers of knowledge-based companies in the field of information technology in 29 major cities of Iran country with number of 45331 people, which according to Cochran's formula, the sample size was calculated 184 people, and considering the possible losses, 200 people of them were selected as a sample by available sampling method. The research tools in the qualitative and quantitative parts respectively were the semi-structured interview and researcher-made questionnaire (51 items), which the validity of the interviews was confirmed by the triangulation method and its reliability was calculated by the agreement coefficient method between two coders 0.88, and the face validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by the opinion of experts and its reliability was confirmed by the Cronbach's alpha method was calculated 0.92. The qualitative part data were analyzed with open, axial and selective coding method based on grounded theory in MAXQDA-2018 software and the quantitative part data were analyzed with exploratory factor analysis and structural equation modeling methods in SPSS-23 and SMART PLS-4 software. The findings of the qualitative part showed that the establishing an entrepreneurial model with a future research approach in the metaverse era in knowledge-based companies in the field of information technology had 293 concepts, 47 sub categories and 17 main categories in 6 dimensions; So that the causal conditions dimension were included 11 sub categories in the 4 main categories of balance between opportunity exploration and creating competitive advantage, innovation development, growth prospects and benefiting from scientific and strategic approaches, the background conditions dimension were included 6 sub categories in the 2 main categories of regulatory approach and cognitive-normative approach, the intervening conditions dimension were included 6 sub categories in the 3 main categories of country's macro policies and planning in the issues of employment creation and entrepreneurship in the field of information technology, motivational mobility of material and spiritual issues and organizational dynamics, the central phenomenon dimension were included 5 sub categories in the 2 main categories of organizational structure of entrepreneurship and organizational policies of entrepreneurship, the strategies dimension were included 11 sub categories in the 4 main categories of having strategic thinking, forward-looking actions, improving work processes and using of education and knowledge management and the consequences dimension were included 8 sub categories in the 2 main categories of prosperity and flourishing of economy and targeted community development. Also, the findings of the quantitative part showed that there were 32 missing questionnaires and the quantitative section analyzes were performed for 178 people. Based on the analysis, all the dimensions had a factor load and average variance extracted of higher than 0.50 and reliability of higher than 0.70. In addition to that, the establishing an entrepreneurial model with a future research approach in the metaverse era in knowledge-based companies in the field of information technology had an acceptable fit, and in the mentioned model, the causal conditions on central phenomenon; the central phenomenon, background conditions and intervening conditions on strategies and strategies on outcomes had a direct and significant effect (P<0.001). The results of the current research about the establishing an entrepreneurial model with a future research approach in the metaverse era in knowledge-based companies in the field of information technology have many practical implications for experts and planners of knowledge-based companies, especially in the field of information technology, and they based on the results of this research can take an effective step towards job creation and establishing an entrepreneurial in the metaverse era.

This study explores the future of social media in the face of traditional Iranian media in terms of power relations. This research has been done by futures research method using scenario writing technique. To achieve the uncertainties, the interpretive-structural modeling (ISM) method using Mick Mac software has been used and to discover the scenarios, the interaction balance method has been used using the script wizard software. Out of 3206 possible combined scenarios, the Wizard scenario output showed 4 scenarios with zero (probable) compatibility, including scenarios of the beautiful city, Gutenberg Heritage, The Independent Age, and The Matrix world. Includes a transformation.

Armed forces are always facing the challenge of efficient human resources recruitment due to their specific conditions in each country, considering development of technology and new regional and global challenges, the importance of supplying human resources increases. The armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran are not exempted from this trend, and considering the special conditions of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the Middle East and decreasing population growth in Iran, this requires more attention. So far, there has been no research for the model of human recourse supplying in the armed forces from the perspective of population and other macro-economic and social variables. This research is a qualitative, fundamental-applied, descriptive exploratory type and has a future research perspective. In this way, after reviewing the theoretical literature and previous researches and the orders of the Supreme Leader, the factors influencing the model of human resource supply in the armed forces were identified, then in the second stage, after conducting in-depth semi-structured interviews with 18 experts, using grounded theory method of charmaz, a comprehensive and local model for providing human resources with an emphasis on the next decade for the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran emerged. The obtained model includes 4 conceptual categories: 1) Future-oriented guerrilla recruitment 2) Influencing environmental factors those are out of control 3) Maintenance for recruiting 4) Battlefield future men and women. According to the obtained categories, practical suggestions have been presented to the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran for the human resource supplying in the next few decades.

This study seeks to identify the effective drives that can impact the future of online social networks in the face of Iranian mass media on the horizon of 1404. The research method is a combination of quantitative and qualitative, which has been done using Futuristic Research Method. This is a des[1]criptive and exploratory research with the approach of identifying uncertainties. In this regard, a total of 20 experts and specialists in the field of media, communications and online social networks, who were selected by the Snowballing method, took part in the in-depth interviews. In this study, the Delphi Method was used to identify the motives, using SPSS software, and the Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) method was used to discover the final key factors affecting the future of social networks. The data collection tool in the structural interpretive modeling section includes a researcher-made questionnaire containing a table of interaction matrix, and the data were analyzed by MicMac software. The research's findings showed that 27 drivers have an impact on the future of social networks, which can be classified into four general sociocultural, political/legal, economic and technological factors.  According to the research's findings, technology-based affairs, digital natives, media ownership and the power of large-scale traditional media are the four final key factors influencing the future of social networks in the face of Iranian mass media on the horizon of 1404.