جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "جدول عمر" در نشریات گروه "علوم اجتماعی"

Insurance companies need several assumptions to calculate premiums for life insurance products. One of these assumptions is a life table. Since 1400, insurance companies were required to use Iran’s life table for calculating life insurance premiums, which was designed based on Iran's demographic information. B, and before that, the French life table was used for this purpose. In this article, using various variables, the impact of changing the life table from the France life table to the Iran life table on the current value of the future loss of the life insurance products portfolio is carried out, analyzed, and compared. In addition, the calculations will be calculated and analyzed both for insureds with standard health risk and for insureds who have substandard health status. According to the findings of the article, in general, the insurance company makes a profit from providing a portfolio of standard insurance policies and a loss from providing a portfolio of substandard insurance policies. If the insurance company uses the France life table, then it will have more profit for standard policies and less loss for substandard policies compared to the Iran life table.

In life insurance pricing problem, the probability of mortality is one of uncertainty factors that is calculated using the life table. The Iranian life table has been issued by the regulatory framework to insurance companies to be implemented since the beginning of 2021. Prior to this table, the French life table was used to calculate premiums. Due to the long-term nature of life insurance contracts, the effect of using Iranian life table on the premium of these products is very important. The research findings indicate that insurance premium calculated based on the French table for term and whole life insurance and endowment insurancelife annuity are  the Iranian table. Also, the effect of changes in age and changes in the term of the contract of life insurance products on the premium has been analyzed. Furthermore, the Adjustment multipliers of mortality probability for the insured with a specific health condition were calculated and the adjusted premiums compared to the standard condition were obtained for the tables of Iran and France. The difference between the adjusted premiums based on the tables of Iran and France are still evident.

Construction of life table in real populations needs data on death distribution by age and sex. Incomplete coverage of the data produced by the National Organization for Civil Registration of Iran (NOCRI) does not provide sufficient information to calculate mortality rates and produce a national life table needless of reevaluation and correction. This paper aims to estimate the coverage level of the current death records and to construct the national and provincial Direct Life Tables for the Iranian population. The research method is secondary data analysis and a cross-sectional approach is adopted to analyze the data. The population and death data are taken from the Statistical Center of Iran (SCI) and NOCRI, respectively. The statistical population includes all provinces of Iran in the 2016 census. The results show that the current death registration coverage for men and women is 86% and 75%, respectively, at the national level during 2011-2016. Accordingly, every male and female live birth born in Iran during that period of time is expected to live 72.8 and 74.6 years, respectively if the living standards remain stable. At the provincial level, the province of Sistan and Baluchistan has the lowest coverage level of death registration as well as the lowest life expectancy at birth.

Life table is the best tool for describing a population’s mortality status. Demographers developed different model life tables to analyze mortality in countries that have an incomplete vital registration system or poor death data. However, it is not yet clear which set of the model life tables is more consistent with the age pattern of mortality in Iran. Using death data registered by National Organization for Civil Registration of Iran (NOCRI), this study seeks answers to this question: which of the model life tables is more consistent with the age pattern of mortality in Iran and its provinces? The research method is secondary analysis of cross-sectional data taken from the Statistical Center of Iran and NOCRI. After evaluating and correcting the population and death data, a life table was constructed for each province and its adaptation with the model life tables was evaluated by MORTPAK. Results show that it is not possible to find a common standard mortality pattern by gender and age in all provinces. Considering the improvements made in the field of death registration coverage, it is necessary to make efforts to develop standard model life tables based on the death data specific to Iran and its provinces.

The substantial and continuous decline in mortality has been one of the major gains in socio-economic development over the last two centuries. One of the most important questions in populations in the final stages of the mortality transition is the extent of longevity inequality. The aim of this study is to investigate inter-individual longevity inequality in Iran. In other words, we try to answer the question that to what extent longevity has been distributed equally within individuals and how has changed from 1973 to 2016. Loranz curve, Gini coefficient, standard deviation of longevity, and standard deviation of adult life span were constructed for both males and females. The length of life inequality indices shows that with the improved life expectancy at birth, longevity inequalities have decreased. This changing trend in the longevity inequality coefficients shows that despite a rapid decrease in the Gini coefficient, adult longevity inequities are not easily reduced.

In the absence of adequate registered data on death and due to uncertain coverage, there are several indirect methods which can be used to estimate the level of mortality. None of these methods are able to estimate age-specific mortality rates and therefore cannot meet the needs of study and planning areas. Therefore, in such circumstances, it is essential to use mortality models to adapt the estimated level of mortality with the standard age pattern of the models. However, each model is based on different experimental data and they have different levels of adaptation in different geographic regions. The main question of this article is that which model is more compatible with age pattern of mortality of Iran? Using data on death from Civil-Registration Vital Statistics and on population from Census, age specific death rates by sex have been calculated and the compatibility of models life table with the age pattern of death has been examined using Brass Logit Model. The results revealed that the differences between societies and changes in patterns and causes of mortality, especially changes in the timing by cause, emphasizing early mortality pattern due to accidents, the Iranian mortality pattern seems to be different. Although the age pattern of Iran's mortality is apparently compatible with the North model of Coale-Demeny Life-Tables, this does not mean the similarity of these two mortality patterns, and the definitive answer to this question requires further studies.