جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "population change" در نشریات گروه "علوم اجتماعی"

One of the responsibilities of demographers is to know how fertility, mortality and migration processes interact in determining population size, growth and changes. Iran has experienced extensive demographic changes during the past three decades. These changes led to a fundamental turn in the government's population policies. The non-expert encounter with the population phenomenon caused the discussion about it to be brought to the public sphere. As a result, determining population policy priorities became a pervasive issue in the country. Diagnosing the problem and putting it on the agenda is part of the policy-making process. In this article, focusing on the results of the General Population and Housing Censuses (GPHC) of Hamadan and Lorestan provinces in 2011 and 2016, as well as the statistics of vital events in these provinces during 2011-2016, we showed that the equation of population changes based on census statistics are not in balance with the statistics of vital events and net migration. In this situation, analyzing the determinants of population changes, determining policy priorities, and providing strategies for population management will be difficult and unrealistic. The findings emphasize the importance of assessing the quality of census and vital events statistics before making any decisions and policies for the population.

Sex ratio at birth is naturally 105 males per 100 females but in some countries this ratio has increased through sex selection interventions. The aim of this study is to identify the trend of changes in the sex ratio at birth in Iran and the contexts and factors affecting it. Using data from the National Organization for Civil Registration and the documentary method, the context and factors affecting changes in the sex ratio at birth were studied. According to the findings, although the sex ratio of births in Iran is currently in the normal range, but in at least four provinces this ratio is out of the normal range and has increased, suggesting an increase in the number of boys compared to girls. Male preference in Iran is a persistent cultural trait that leads some parents to son preference and eliminates girls. Despite such a cultural problem, the health system allows parents to access the means of sex selection. In addition to being a violation of the right to life for women, continuation of this trend can have negative social consequences such as marriage problems, violence and prostitution. Therefore, it is necessary to pay enough attention to it and think of measures to prevent it.

The leading article aims to examine the demographic, social, and economic situation of female-headed households in Iran with a descriptive-analytical approach and using raw data of two percent of the 2016 census. The results showed that the proportion of these women in the country has increased by 4.3 percent in the last two decades. Sistan and Baluchestan and Kurdistan provinces have the highest and lowest percentages of female-headed households, respectively. This increase has also been for single-parent households. The highest percentage of this household was in South Khorasan province and the lowest in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad provinces. More than 27 percent of female-headed households have no literate family members. 86% of women were unemployed and 14% were employed, which is a large gap between the two families. Analyzes showed that the gender of the head of the household was significantly related to age, marital status, literacy status, level of education, and activity status of the head of the household. In terms of age structure, female-headed households are older than their male counterparts, and in terms of marital status, most men have a spouse and most female-headed households are unmarried. Also, illiteracy, education, and employment rates are higher among female-headed households than their male counterparts. The implicit concept is that female-headed households are not in a better position than male-headed households in terms of the indicators examined.

According to the vital role of agricultural sector in economy of Iran, the effects of population and agricultural value added changes on agricultural energy intensity was investigated for 24 provinces in Iran by employing annual data from 2001 to 2016. The panel auto regressive distribution lag (Panel ARDL) was applied after testing the panel stationary properties of the variables. The results showed that the relationship between migration from rural to urban areas and agricultural energy intensity are negative and its elasticity in the long run equals -0.07 percent. Agricultural population and increase in agricultural human activities have significant positive relationships with agricultural intensity and the long-term elasticity of the working population in agriculture is 0.326 percent. The empirical results support a statistically significant inverted U-shaped relationship between agricultural energy intensity and value added of agricultural sector. Also, the point of return for the Kuznets curve was about 15 trillion Rials. To decrease the environmental effect of energy consumption intensity, the renewable energy and green energy should be used.

The Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) is one of the relatively new regional cooperation organizations that have brought together six Asian members of the ex-Soviet Union (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) with four major countries of the region (Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan and Turkey). The main aim of this paper is to identify demographic transition and specifically highlight age structure transition and its pattern in the ECO Countries during 1950-2025. According to applied demographic paradigm, this study has measured the changes in age structure by applying the demographic indices such as population size, population growth rate and total fertility rate using a comparative approach. Data are taken from the UN Projection/Estimations in the five years ago which are comparable in terms of demographic experiences of diverse countries over the past half century. This comparative study showed that during 1950-1975 the high fertility rate led to relative increase of population under 15 years and decrease of various indices of ageing. However, all these countries, experienced signs of reduction of fertility over 1980-2010. Hence, with appearance of fertility control in this decade, the share of population under 15 years has reduced gradually, and the share of population aged 15-64 years has increased. Continuation of this trend in future can change the age structure of the population and reduce significantly the population under 15 years and lead the population into ageing. This study showed that six Asian members of the ex-Soviet Union have followed the population age structure of Russia with a rapid population ageing. These results will have implications for population policies in the ECO region.