جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « مدل ARIMA » در نشریات گروه « کتابداری و مدیریت اطلاعات »

The present study attempts to review Iran's scientific production, and determine its position in the world's scientific production arena during the course of 1996-2015, and to project this trend in the upcoming years.

To gather data, ISI, Scopus, and SCImago databases’ data were used. Then, using Eviews software and ARIMA model, Iran's scientific production trend was projected until 2030.

The research findings indicate that Iran's scientific production growth and acceleration, despite regional and world fluctuations in the past two decades, was desirable and noticeable.

The research results show that despite having desirable growth in the country's scientific production in the past two decades, the projection of the country's scientific production up to 2030 indicates a declining trend. In order to improve this trend and to increase the country's scientific production, it is essential to adopt a long-term policy to maintain the country's scientific acceleration and achieve a favourable position in the world.