جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "دوره های تر و خشک" در نشریات گروه "جغرافیا"

Probability distributions and different mixed regression models are used to study of wet and dry spells. In this study, eight stations on the southern coast of the Caspian Sea were used for 55 years (1960 to 2015). One and two day wet spells are the most frequent in the area. Also, four and higher days wet spells in the western region is more than the east. The best probability distributions of wet spells are two-parameter gamma, two parameter normal log, two parameter logistic log, four-parameter generalized gamma, generalized three parameters gamma, two-parameter gamma, three-parameter gamma and a three-parameter logistic log. Also, the dry spells of the region are better fitted with generalized Parto, generalized logistics and generalized extreme value distributions. Due to the random behavior of the annual wet and dry spells, the best generalized linear mixed model for wet spells is the negative binomial log, Log Poisson, log normal and gamma logarithmic, also the Log Poisson, log normal and the negative binomial distribution was determined for the annual dry spells.</div>

Since immemorial past, drought has been one of the dangerous natural disasters for human life. As it is seen in historical texts, this phenomenon has always caused many social-economic changes, such as wars, famine and immigration. In this research, the wet and dry periods of some of meteorological stations of Lake Urmia Basin, located in the northwest of Iran, have been analyzed. For this purpose, first the stations of Urmia, Tabriz, Saqez and Miandoab have been normalized using yearly methods. In other words, the precipitation was turned into a standard score (Z-Score). Then, the intensity of either of dry and wet periods was defined in two classes: weak to average dry (-1.5 <z <-0.5), severe dry (z<-1.5), weak to average wet (+0.5 <z <+1.5) and extreme wet (z> +1.5). In addition, the roughly normal period (-0.5 <z <+ 0.5) was considered as a period neither significantly wet nor suffering from drought. In the next step, a Run Test was performed on monthly precipitation data and their homogeneity was confirmed. Subsequently, using time series method (SARIMA), the monthly precipitation of these stations was modeled and predicted for the future (based on the most appropriate model) until 2002. Finally, according to the predicted values, the degree of severity of the year’s wet-or-dryness has been determined. The results of the study show that the annual precipitation of this basin in the years 2001 and 2002 is almost normal and will be accompanied by an upward trend and exit the state of drought.