جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « سناریوهای واداشت تابشی » در نشریات گروه « جغرافیا »

It is said that climate change will have a negative impact on the tourism industry, since climate is one of the fundamental variables of tourism. In order to investigate the impact of climate change on the future situation (2020-2050) of tourism climate in Lorestan province, two scenarios of radiation forcing RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 and tourism climate index TCI were used in this study. For this purpose, the data of the two scenarios were obtained from ESGF portal. After the exponential scaling of the data using the LARS -WG6 microrotation model, their reliability compared to the ground stations was checked monthly in the base period, then to check the future tourism climate, the monthly average of the parameters was calculated and called to the TCI index. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was used to examine the changes in the climatic parameters used in the TCI index. The results showed that qualitative changes of TCI index occur in the next period in Borujerd and Khorramabad stations in 7 months and in Borujerd station in 8 months of the year compared to the base period. In the next period, under both scenarios, we will generally see a decrease in the quality of tourism climate in Aligoders station, a qualitative increase in Borujerd station and the contrast of TCI decrease and improvement in both scenarios in Borujerd station. In the parameters of temperature, sunshine hours and wind speed, there is a positive increase in both scenarios, but it is not significant. In the parameters of precipitation and humidity, a decrease in precipitation in winter is often observed, which from this point of view is considered a positive factor for the tourism climate of the stations, while an increase in precipitation and humidity in summer, especially in RCP2/6, is considered a negative factor for the future tourism climate of the stations. Considering the increase in temperature and sunshine hours in the coming period and the abundance of water resources in the province, investment in water recreation infrastructure and the use of water-related tourism activities will not only utilize the capacity of travelers from neighboring provinces such as Khuzestan in hot seasons, but can also be combined with temperature increases. and sunshine hours to increase the attractiveness of travel and use in this part of tourism activities.

Iran is considered one of the most arid and semi-arid regions in the world, where wheat accounts for about 65-70% of the cultivated land for the main crops. To predict the impact of climate change on the yield of fall wheat (blue) in Jiroft, the Aquacrop crop model was used to simulate fall wheat yield in this study. Then, 17 general atmospheric circulation models from the CMIP5 model suite were used under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 radiative forcing scenarios to show changes in climate variables from 2020 to 2098. The results of these models were fine-tuned using the MarkSimGCM climate generator. Evaluation of the accuracy of the AquaCrop model in simulating wheat yield during the baseline period (1990-2016) compared to the observed yield shows the optimal accuracy of this model with R2, MAE, RMSE, and MAPE coefficients of 0.7, 203, 237, and 11.43 percent.The results of predicting wheat yield in the future period show that it will increase under both scenarios, that the average yield increase in the future period compared to the base period is 75 kg/ha for RCP4.5 and 91 kg/ha for RCP8.5. The reason for the yield increase in this product is the reduction of minimum and maximum temperatures in the future period, especially at the end of wheat growth, and the reduction of heat stress.