جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « مدیریت منابع آب » در نشریات گروه « جغرافیا »

Flood hazard is one of the most destructive phenomena that affects human life worldwide. Following the activity of a powerful rainfall system on March 17, 2019, in the Gorganrood basin, a 500-yr flood occurred, and half of the Gorgan city was inundated. This research was conducted to evaluate the operation management of the Golestan Reservoir before the flood. To accomplish this study, the Landsat 8 satellite images in the period of 2002-2023 and Sentinel 2 images one month before and after the flood were processed in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) system. In total, 245 images with monthly resolution were analyzed. Five indices of AWEI_sh, NDWI, AWEInsh, WRI, and MNDWI were used to identify the water inundation area. Results show that the AWEI_sh index had the best performance in terms of a kappa coefficient of 0.985, overall accuracy of 90%, and accuracy of 100%. The results showed that while the Golestan Dam reservoir experienced less than 50% full in 90% of the months (out of 245 months), this reservoir was 68% full two days before the flood. The results of this study revealed that despite the announcement of orange-level warnings by Iran’s Meteorological Organization in 5 days before the flood event and also despite the efforts of the dam manager to exhaust the stored water in the reservoir (33 percent empty volume), these actions have not been able to protect the downstream areas of the dam from flooding. Therefore, in addition to the effect of the dam on flood control, it is necessary to revisit the locations of the human settlements downstream of the dams.

The damming can cause changes in the hydrological regime of the river. There is a crucial need to understand the potential impacts of water structures on river hydrologic regimes in order to set managed environmental flows. In this study, the statistics of Tang Esferjan hydrometric station at the outlet of Hoonejan watershed (Isfahan province) were used to investigate the monthly average discharge and flow duration curve alteration using IHA software (version 7.1). The amount of monthly flow has decreased in the post impact compared to the pre impact period. The flow duration curve is higher in all seasons before the construction of check-dams than after construction. The interpretation of flow duration curves shows the reducing effect of correction clauses in all types of flow. The hydrological indicators of the stream (normal discharge index in the high flow condition, normal discharge index in the low flow condition and normal discharge index) have decreased in the post-impact period compared to the pre-impact period. In all months of the year, except for February, March and April, the rate of decrease of the normal discharge index in the low flow condition (Q75) was higher than the normal discharge index in the high flow condition (Q25). The normal discharge index in the high flow condition has decreased more in the spring season than in other seasons after damming. The normal discharge index in the low flow condition in winter, autumn (91%) and summer (90%) has decreased more than in spring.

The failure and inefficiency of past water resources management policies have led to a movement to review, pathologize, and find ways to increase the efficiency of water resources management and subsequently increase water security. Since many factors affect water security, recognizing these factors can improve the performance of sustainable water resources management. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to determine the water security index (WSI) with the help of the watershed security assessment framework at the watershed scale to comprehensively analyze the water crisis and the consequences of this water shortage in the Neyshabour Plain. The statistical population of the study is 125 farmers in the area the sample size was determined using Cochran's formula and people were interviewed by random sampling method. Also, institutional factor questionnaires were completed by snowball sampling method from experts of water-related organizations. The results show that among the 5 main dimensions identified to assess water security, the water economy dimension has had an increasing trend during the 3 statistical periods studied (2012-2013, 2016-2017 and 2019-2020) and in 2019-2020, it has had the highest amount. But in general, the water security situation in the watershed of Neyshabour Plain has been decreasing over the past 10 years and is in a weak status. In this regard, if stakeholders in water resources management pay attention to the factors affecting the concept of water security, by using and implementing the framework presented in this study, it is possible to improve the compatibility capacity and develop effective operational plans with correct and timely pathology and achieve more stable and comprehensive management of water resources in the country's watersheds.

Ecological indicators have become important tools for evaluating and monitoring natural resources. Understanding the relationship between biological activities and ecological interactions is essential to their structure. On the other hand, human activities have significant effects on landscape evolution through changes in sediment production, transport, and storage. Therefore, this issue should be considered in the comprehensive management of different watersheds and ecosystems. Accordingly, the present study was conducted to evaluate the spatial heterogeneity of the hydro-sedimentologic disturbance index (HSDI) in the watershed located in the central part of Ardabil province. For this purpose, sediment transport (ST), hydrological stress (HS), recharge potential of groundwater (Rec), and soil erosion potential (SEP) were first calculated for 27 different sub-watersheds. Then, these factors were weighted using the Shannon entropy method. The hydro-sedimentologic disturbance index (HSDI) was calculated and zoned using the weighted average. The results showed that the mean, maximum and minimum values of the HSDI index in the Samian watershed were 10.17, 45.67, and 0.20, respectively. In addition, 87.67, 5.33, 5.32, and 1.68% of the watershed area were classified into very low, low, medium, and high levels of disturbances, respectively. Sub-watershed 19 located in the northern part, and sub-watersheds 20 and 21 located in the central part of the Samian watershed have the most disturbances, so they are prioritized for management actions. The present research framework can be used as a potential tool to support decisions that should focus on improving natural resource management.

Water stress is an important issue facing the world today. Some see it as affected by climate change and droughts, while others see it as poorly managed inhabitants of the planet. Every year, scientists and experts come together to think of a solution to the problem of water shortage. Iran is also one of the driest regions in the world due to its location in the arid geographical belt and desert belt and is thus no exception to this rule. The purpose of this paper is to analyze meta-analytic studies of water resources management. For this purpose, the collected articles were identified and categorized separately at both national and transnational levels. According to the studies, it was found that most studies at the national and transnational levels have focused on the status of water resources management and few studies have examined the causes and reasons for the challenges in water resources management. Also, studies have shown that adaptation and prevention, removal of economic barriers and the use of technology along with increasing stakeholder cooperation, developing a fully collaborative scenario as an alternative to the water transfer scenario, as well as thoughtful and comprehensive planning along with the awareness of actors and the collective will for good governance are some appropriate solutions to the water crisis and climate change. Despite such solutions, water resources management issues should have been resolved by now, but why is the water issue still a challenge? The research findings show that the solution to this problem is not reached by understanding the reasons, but only the favorable conditions versus the unfavorable conditions have been studied. Thus, this research seeks to find out how water resources management happens in this way.

The optimal allocation of available production resources to the activities that bring the most benefit to farmers and also minimize water consumption, is one of the most important issues in agriculture management where disregarding this issue leads to inefficiency in the agricultural production system. Therefore, in this study; Linear programming has been used to allocate the optimal water resources as well as optimal cropping pattern in Dehgolan plain (Kurdistan province). Lingo software version 14 was used to run the linear programming model. Linear programming ran in 7 modes considering water constraints, cropping pattern, workforce, reduction in groundwater consumption, and minimizing water consumption to determine the optimal cropping pattern as well as a suitable solution for increasing net profit and water productivity. In addition, optimal cropping patterns were assessed in order to minimize water consumption. In general, the results of the current study showed that the net profit of these assessed seven scenarios increased 7.92 to 400 percent in comparison with the current cultivation pattern, while most of the scenarios considered both changes in the cropping pattern and minimizing water consumption. In the scenario of groundwater reduction, despite water availability decreased, the net profit compared to the current situation increased by 10.11%. Accordingly, it can be concluded that during the shortage of available water, such as droughts or applying the strategy of utilizing less groundwater to compensate for the groundwater withdrawal, economic benefits still can be increased along with decreasing water consumption by changes in cropping patterns. The results of this study indicated that optimization of cropping patterns is crucial for economy and water consumption purposes. Unfortunately, farmers in Dehgolan plain do not use available resources in optimal mode at present.

​The allocation of limited available lands to the activities that bring the most benefit to farmers and also minimize water consumption is one of the key issues, and unawareness leads to inefficiency in the agricultural production system. The problem of water scarcity affects most of arid and semi-arid regions. Main parts of the Qorveh-Dehgolan plain, in Kurdistan province, formerly used as rain-fed agriculture and limited lands, were irrigated by surface water. However, these days, along with the exploitation of groundwater resources through wells, parts of the rain-fed lands have been converted to irrigate lands leading to a severe decline in the groundwater table in the last decade. Therefore, the groundwater level has decreased up to 70 meters in some areas of Qorveh-Dehgolan plain.​

​Linear programming is used to optimally allocate water resources as well as cropping pattern in Dehgolan plain, Kurdistan province. Lingo software version 14 has been used to run the linear programming model. To find out the optimal cropping pattern, as a suitable solution for increasing net profit and water productivity, linear programming were run in 7 modes including:1) Optimization without any constraints;
2) Optimization subjected to water constraints;
3) Optimization subjected to water and cropping pattern constraints;
4) Optimization subjected to water, cropping pattern and workforce constraints;
5) Optimization subjected to increase in workforce by 10 % of the current workforce;
6) Optimization subjected to the scenario of a 20% reduction in groundwater consumption;
7) Optimization subjected to minimizing water consumption.

​​In the first scenario, the potato crop is the only proposed crop due to higher profitability, where 112603.8 hectares of agricultural lands in the region allocated for the cultivation of this crop. Running the model for the second scenario showed that the net income of this scenario decreased by 57.9% compared to the first scenario, where water consumption decreased up to 85%. The area proposed for potato and rain-fed chickpeas in the fourth scenario in comparison with the current situation were increased up to 80.66 and 31.53%, respectively. In addition, the net profit of the fourth scenario has increased up to 10.98% compared to the current situation. The fifth scenario compared to the current situation showed an increase in the area under cultivation of rain-fed chickpeas and potatoes up to 47.03% and 80.66%, respectively. Also, the net profit of the fifth scenario increased by 11.56 percent in comparison with the current situation. In the sixth scenario; where the groundwater consumption reduced more than 20%, the optimal solution was not obtained. In this scenario; the area under cultivation of irrigated chickpeas, potatoes, and rain-fed chickpeas were increased compared to the current situation up to 98.8%, 38.91%, and 31.99%, respectively. For such a situation, the area under cultivation of other crops decreased and the net profit increased by 10.11% compared to the current situation. In the seventh scenario, the area under cultivation of irrigated chickpeas, potatoes, and rain-fed chickpeas has been increased by 11728, 56.44, and 4.82%, respectively. The area under cultivation of other crops decreased and the net profit of this scenario increased up to 7.92% in comparison with the current situation.

​There is a possibility to increase the net profit of the current cultivation pattern up to 10% by optimizing the available water and land resources in the study area. In the scenario of groundwater reduction, despite water availability decreased, the net profit compared to the current situation increased by 10.11%. Accordingly, it can be concluded that during the shortage of available water, such as droughts or applying the strategy of utilizing less groundwater to compensate for the groundwater withdrawal, economic benefits still can increase along with decreasing water consumption by changes in cropping patterns. Only in the second scenario, water input has a shadow price and showed that providing one additional unit of water increases farmers' profits up to 771 Tomans. In general, the results of this study declared that farmers currently did not use available resources optimally and there is a great potential to increase profits by reallocating resources. According to the findings of this study, linear programing model proposed that the area under cultivation of Medicago reduced equal to 31.73% to minimize water consumption, which is related to the high water needs of this crop.​     
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Nowadays, changes in environmentaldynamics including changes in land cover, land use, water supplies and climate are considered to be challenging issues of human communities. Thus, it is especially important to investigate different aspects of land use change and their effects on the past and future trends ofdifferent plains. Identification of previous changes and prediction of future trends help planners and managers to compensate for losses and avoid similar mistakes in future.Therefore, the present study is divided into two parts. In the first part, land usechanges of Lenjanat Plain in the 1990-2015 period are analyzed. In the second part, future land use changes (2015-2035) of the area are investigated.Adjustment coefficient is calculated to show the effect of land use changes on runoff coefficient.  

2.1 Study area and its characteristics Lenjanat Plain is a sub-basin of Gavkhuni Wetland located in the central part of the Iranian plateau with the longitude of 51˚ 8' to 51˚45' E and latitude of 32˚2' to 32˚24' N.   2.2  Land use change In the first step, preprocessing of satellite data and preparation of the information were carried out through geometric and atmospheric correction of the digital imageswith the purpose of correcting errors, removing defects in the images and omitting system errors. Landsat-4 and 5, TM sensor, Landsat-7, ETM+ sensor and Landsat-8 OLI sensor were used to evaluate and predict land use changes in the study area. Image selection was performed based on the availability criteria, and Landsat satellite images were thus obtainedfor 1990, 2005, and 2015. In the next step, unsupervised classification was used to create a general understanding of land use classes in the study area as a useful tool for determining training samples. ENVI software was used to identify suitable training samples for classification. To realize the second goal of the study, Marco integration model and a cellular automaton model were used and future land use changes in Lenjanstudy area were predicted for 2035 based on the base map and the assumption that the current trend in land use changes will continue. For this purpose, the Marco and CA-MARKOV modules were utilizedin IDRISI SELVA. CA-Markov model was used to predict land use changes with spatial contiguity and spatial transitions over time. 

3.1 Measuringland usechanges Finall and use maps represent the percentage and spatial distribution of each landuse type in the study area in the past, and at present. These maps area also used to evaluate the effects of management on the intensity of land use changes in the study area. Man-made surfaces have almost doubled in the region and reached from 3922 to 7202 hectares. In the past, 3922, 22516, 81613 and 367 hectaresof man-made areas (such as residential and industrial), agricultural lands, barren lands, and riverbeds were located in the study area which have reached 7202, 17943, 82793 and 229 hectares, respectively.   3.2 Prediction of future land usechanges Land use types in 2035 were predicted using CA-Markov chain model. Results indicate that manmade surfaces will exhibit a rising trend and increase from 7,202 to 9,122 hectaresduring 2015-2035 period.To determine the compatibility or incompatibility of actual maps and modelingresults, model validation was performed. In this regard, land usesof the study area was predicted for 2015 through the aforementionedmodel and the predicted map was compared with the actual land use map in 2015. In this method, the Kappa index of 0-1 was used to interpret the results.   3.3 Adjustment Factor Before anything else, the present study have determinedland usechangespercentage. Then, runoff coefficient of the forecast period was divided by runoff coefficient of land use changes in the pastto calculate the adjustment factor.Based on the findings of this study and the land use changesforecasted forLenjanat plain in 2035, the adjustment coefficient for the region equals 1.051.

The present study aimed to evaluate various criteria affecting the quantity of water resources. Moreover, it has evaluated and determinedadjustment factor. For this purpose, Lenjan plain was used as a representative of the plainsin the country. Five land use types, including man-made areas (such as residential and industrial), agricultural lands, Barren lands, riverbeds and rock beds were identified for 1990, 2005 and 2015. CA-Markov was applied to predict land use changes for 2035. Adjustment coefficient is also calculated to show the effect of land use changes on runoff coefficient

Groundwater is the single water resource in many regions of Iran. This is considered to be a major limitation in the social and economic development of the country. Destructive floods and water shortage necessitate suitable strategies against flood control. Selecting suitable areas for artificial recharge and directing the floodwater into permeable formations are amongst the most effective strategies in flood spreading projects. Having combined GIS and MCDA approaches, the present study sought to locate the most suitable areas for artificial groundwater recharge operation in the Garabaygan Basin of Iran. To this end, the data layers relating to the eight effective factors were prepared in GIS environment. This stage was followed by elimination of the exclusionary areas for artificial recharge while determining the potentially suitable ones. Having closely examined the potentially suitable areas using the PROMETHEE II-SAW and Fuzzy-AHP methods, the land suitability map for artificial groundwater recharge was produced. The results of the study showed that most suitable areas for the artificial groundwater recharge are located in Quaternary Qg and Qgsc geologic units and in geomorphological units of pediment and Alluvial fans with slopes not exceeding 3 percent. Furthermore, significant correspondence between the produced map and the control areas, where the artificial groundwater recharge projects were successfully performed, provided further evidence for the acceptable efficiency of the integrated PROMETHEE II-SAW method in comparison with Fuzzy-AHP in locating suitable artificial recharge areas.

Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall is one of the determining factors for water resources management, agricultural production, drought risk, flood control and understanding the effect of climate change. The impact of spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation on flood/drought hazard and available water resources is an undeniable issue in water resources management. Precipitation concentration (PCI) and Seasonality (SI) indices are the important indicators to determine the distribution of precipitation in a region which can lead to identify and manage before occurring natural hazards including flood and drought and hydro-meteorological storms. Several methods available to study the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall. Indicators of rainfall concentration and seasonality are among the methods of studying rainfall dispersion that depend on the distribution of rainfall patterns at different time scales. Accordingly, the study and understanding of temporal and spatial changes in rainfall can lead to sound management policies in the field of water and soil resources by planners and decision makers.

The precipitation concentration index is presented as a powerful indicator for determining the temporal distribution of precipitation to show the distribution of precipitation and rain erosion. The increase in the value of this indicator indicates a low dispersion and a higher concentration of rainfall, which is closely related to the intensity of rainfall. Seasonality index as one of the key factors in detecting seasonal variation in the variables of natural ecosystems, measures the time distribution of hydrological components at different times of the year and uses each hydrological variable to classify different hydrologic variable regimes. In this regard, the present research aimed to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution and trend analysis of PCI and SI for 41 rain gauge stations of Golestan province (38-year study period) in annual, seasonal and dry and wet time scales. The Mann-Kendall test was used to determine the trend of time changes in PCI and SI indices during the study period in all selected rain gauge stations in Golestan province. Mann-Kendall test is one of the non-parametric tests to determine the trend in hydroclimate time series. The advantages of this method include its suitability for use in time series without a specific statistical distribution, as well as the effectiveness of this method in data with extreme values in time series. In order to determine the spatial pattern of PCI and SI indices in different time scales (annual, seasonal, and dry and wet periods), the method of inverse distance weighting was employed in GIS environment. In this method, a weight has been assigned to each point that decreases with increasing distance from the known value point. On the other hand, the effectiveness of the known point in estimating the unknown point and calculating the mean also decreases. In this regard, the best results are obtained when the behavior of the mathematical function is similar to the behavior of the observed phenomenon. The study area in terms of extent, topographic diversity, type of land use has a high heterogeneity that affects the characteristics and temporal and spatial occurrence of dry and wet periods. The average annual rainfall varies from about 150 to 750 mm over the study area.

According to the results, the average of PCI for annual, spring, summer, autumn, winter, dry and wet periods in the research area were obtained 13.15, 11.96, 13.15, 10.72, 9.96, 14.72, and 1072, respectively. Also, Chat station with 0.79 (seasonal distribution with dry and wet seasons) and Shastkalateh station with 0.47 (mainly seasonal distribution with short dry season) had the maximum and minimum of SI in the Golestan province, respectively. In addition, 27 and 14 of studied stations had the increasing (Significant and no-significant) and decreasing (Significant and no-significant) trend for PCI and SI.

Non-compliance of precipitation in Golestan province with a single temporal and spatial pattern is another achievement of the present study. The results of the current research can be used as a roadmap for water resources planning and policy making in the study area. It is noteworthy that the PCI and SI indices do not emphasize the cumulative values of precipitation and address the pattern of rainfall distribution, which can be a better criterion for assessing changes in precipitation patterns at different time scales. In this regard, determining the priority of areas for protection and management of water and soil resources, and spatial pattern of agricultural crops. The trend of changes in PCI and SI indicators and its relationship with important climatic components can be considered in assessing the changes in pattern of precipitation and climatic variables.

The indicators of the state of water resources and consumption in the agricultural sector indicate the imbalance between supply and demand for water. Through empowerment, Villagers gain more control over their activities and with high power, control over water resources, capacity building and active participation; they are able to properly guide their activities. The present study was conducted to study the position of villager’s empowerment in water resources management and identifying effective indicators in empowerment for sustainable water resources management and grouping of Pakdasht countryside based on water management capability indicators. The statistical population of the study is the villagers of Pakdasht Township. The sample size was 381 and distributed randomly. Data were collected BY using a questionnaire. The result of the review of the average rank of variables showed that the mean of all rankings is higher than the average, which indicates the desired status of research indicators among respondents. The results of one sample t-test also confirmed the mean of the variables. In order to rank components, the coefficient of variation was used that index of decrease of immigration ranked first and production efficiency increase in on farms, gardens and greenhouses ranked the last. In order to group the effect of empowerment on the indices, the fracture technique was used by using coefficient of variation were used and finally, villages were grouped according to the degree of homogeneity in water resource management via cluster analysis.

One of the biggest challenges of the present century is water shortage. Due to the increasing population growth, the consumption and demand for water have always been increasing, especially for rural people because most of them are farmers. This situation has become a big concern for them as well as authorities. Therefore, appropriate policies and plans have been raised for the management of water supply and demand known as the integrated management of water resources.

The purpose of the present study was to investigate the effect of water resources management in sustainable livelihoods of rural households due to the consecutive droughts in Aq Qala Township.

This research had an applied purpose and a descriptive-analytical method. Accordingly, multiple questions were set in the form of a questionnaire. Rural households in two Voshmgir rural areas constituted the statistical population. The statistical sample consisted of 363 farmers in northern and southern Mazraeh rural districts who were selected by the simple random sampling method. Data were analyzed by statistical tests such as Mac McNemar, Friedman, Independent Samples T-Test, and Chi-square.

Using Friedman and Chi-square tests, the results showed a significant relationship (95%) between water resources management and increasing productivity in the sustainable livelihoods of rural households leading to population retention in rural areas. Accordingly, the government’s support of the planting of products with fewer water requirements, promoting greenhouse and hydroponic planting, training of farmers with water use reduction and new irrigation methods, and assigning long-term credits by the government can be appropriate solutions to increase productivity in the realization of water resources management.

This study was performed for the first time in a rural flooded zone in Aq Qala Township in order to improve the sustainable livelihoods of rural households.

The main purpose of this study is to investigate and analyze the understanding the meaning of local communities of the consequences of allocating dam water to rural settlements in Kurdistan province. This case study was conducted in two villages of Legzi (with dam water) and Gol Tappeh (deprived of dam water) located in Saqez Township. For collecting field data, the main reliance of researchers was on individual and group interviews and thematic analysis method was used to analyze the data. In this way, in Legzi village were conducted 6 in-depth interviews and three panel sessions and in Gol Tappeh village, 7 in-depth interviews and three panel sessions. It should be noted that the sampling method was purposeful and the basis for completing the interviews was theoretical saturation. The results showed that the allocation of dam water to the residents of Legzi village evokes positive themes such as “sustainability of local economy”, “sustainability of local community”, “flourishing motivation for success”, and “increasing environmental compatibility”, which has ultimately formd the macro theme of “sustainable rural development”. On the contrary, the perception of the inhabitants of Gol Tappeh village of no allocation of dam water to them has been associated with negative themes and sometimes creating functional changes in the village, such as "feeling of relative deprivation", "fragility of the local economy", "instability of the local community" and "serviceability of rural jobs", which have led to the formation of the"rural instability" macro theme. The results show that adoption and implementation of dual policies of allocation/non-allocation of dam water to rural communities can be effective in functional-structural changes in villages by associating macro concepts of sustainability/instability of rural development. Therefore, it seems that the revision of water allocation policies in the country is an undeniable necessity.

Consequences of climate change affect many aspects of human societies. Unfortunately, the impacts of climate change has less studied and analyzed In terms of security. One of the important effects of climate reimpacts is the impact on water resources of different regions. Access to proper water resources is one of the biggest challenges in the present century, as it is limited to water resources, and the consumption and demand of it is always increasing. Hence, the situation of water resources will play a significant role in the formation of relations flow and development movement in Iran's geographic space. Due to the growing importance of water competition, identification of the positive and negative capacities of the country's hydropolivalent can be used to provide the macro and micro strategies.The present study is applied in terms of purpose. With descriptive approach following the systematic analysis of the spatial status of water resources (aqueous flows from neighboring countries and precipitation). It tries to analyze the challenges of dehydration and security consequences of water resources, especially in boundary and border areas.Dehydration and water crisis in Iran are the result of physical and economic factors resulting from poor management of water resources. Other factors such as annual rainfall, persistent drought, limited water access, population increase, climate change, water distribution, different spatial dispersion, water efficiency in different sectors of agriculture and lack of sustainable water planning can not be ignored.The above factors lead to a gradual reduction in agricultural activities, increasing tension and involvement over water resources, increasing unemployment and expanding poverty cycle, migrating to major cities and margins, emptying the land of the population, increasing trafficking, dissatisfaction.

During the last two decades, macro climatic changes in Simineh region, reductions in celestial precipitation, abundance of evapotranspiration and transpiration caused by an increase in the average temperature, and the interference of human constructive factors such as damming, agricultural activities, and unplanned and unprocessed harvesting of surface water have resulted in an environmental hazard. Therefore, numerous and acute environmental and environmental hazards are among the urgent necessities of production in Simineh region. Therefore, it seems necessary to provide solutions and appropriate strategies to prevent the decline of underground aquifers in the region, reform the model, and provide proper water management. Thus, the present study aims to identify the causes of water crisis, the threats and challenges of water scarcity, water management strategies, and the strengths and weaknesses of agricultural water management in Simineh section. We also intend to examine the strategies for improving agricultural water management in Simineh.In this research, first, the factors of water crisis are investigated. To our knowledge, there is no solution in water management for natural factors, and if there is, it cannot be solved at a regional level within a short time. Therefore, strategies are mainly provided in case of human factors. Then, the threats and opportunities of the water crisis in the region are evaluated. Finally, a water management system is developed and water strategies are presented.

The concept of water resources management has long been discussed in the world but integrated studies of surface and groundwater resources usually began in the 1960s. Numerous studies have been conducted in the field of water management. Cherini (2007) believes that the problem of integrated water management is lack of coordination related to water bodies in Zimbabwe. Ortega et al. (2016) in their study "use of a smart irrigation system to study the effects of irrigation management on the agronomic and physiological responses of tomato plants grown under different temperatures regimes" propound the use of the smart irrigation system as one of the most important scientific achievements for water management.

The sample in this study includes the villages of Simineh region, agricultural experts of Jihad’s Agriculture Organization, Simineh Agricultural Jihad Department, and Agricultural Jihad Service Centers. This section has 80 villages, 77of which are inhabited.The variables were extracted from the research and theoretical foundations of the study. These variables include water crisis, water resource management, water scarcity threats, water shortage opportunities, and water resource management strategies.The data collection was carried out in two sections. In the first stage, we collected information on the theoretical foundations of the subject and research records using the documentation methodology, library studies, Internet databases, and interview methods. Next, the required data were gathered and the statistics from the members of technical and engineering companies and consulted services and experts in the relevant organizations of the study area were analyzed. The questionnaire was administered in the form of field studies

According to the results, among water crisis factors, inappropriate utilization of resources with an average of 4.33 was the most important factor. Among the threats, the desertification with an average of 4.4 was found to be the most important threat. Among the water crisis opportunities, it was found that the motivation to change the pattern of agricultural crops with an average of 4.35, and a coefficient of variation of 17.47 was the most important opportunity. In case of the components, the pattern of cultivating management with a mean of 4.53 was identified as the most important component. Finally, in the strategy section, the development of pressurized irrigation methods with an average impact of 4.46 was the most important strategy.

The results show that the cropping pattern with a mean of 5.53 and a coefficient of variation of 17.95 acts as an important factor in creating water crisis. Consequently, it is possible to emphasize the change in water management as a part of the misuse caused by the non-conformance of the product type to the capacity and the potential of the region, which is exacerbated through loss of water in the transmission path. Pressure irrigation is another important component of water management. The results show that this criterion with an average of 4.35 and a coefficient of variation of 16.34 is of great importance in solving the crisis and proper use of water. The above-mentioned factors indicate that water management in the region involves technical weaknesses in water utilization system. Producers' training (with a mean of 4.17 and with a coefficient of variation of 16.45), the assessment of agricultural consumption (with a mean of 4.17 and a coefficient of variation of 17.5), and the conservation and maintenance of water resources such as Qantas and springs (with a mean of 4.0 and a coefficient of variation of 19.37) are considered significant factors in water management. These issues in water management revealed that in addition to the weaknesses in the technical dimension in the area, there is a social weakness that needs to be solved. The socio-economic partnership along with capacity building can provide useful specific strategies in this respect.

Beside the improvement plans and climate change increasing during the last years and its effects on Azarshahr plain aquifer system, reveals the necessity of precise and applicable study about the aquifer situation. For this aim, Using the Artificial Intelligence, simulation and prediction of rainfall and run-off time series was done and expanded overall the plain by Empirical Bayesian Kriging(EBK), the forecasted total water budget of the plain and the other data were imported into the plain Aquifer dynamic system, in WEAP software. The response of the aquifer against the stresses was evaluated during the reference period from 2013 to 2021, applying the population growth and agricultural water demand increasing. The plain aquifer dynamic system, showed the reservoir capacity losing about 7% at the end of stress period (2021) in consequence of 2 and 1% increasing of population and agricultural water demand respectively. Present study shows the high performance of artificial intelligence and system dynamic conjugation in system response to the future climate changes and it can be useful for the water resources management and prediction of future vital actions.

One of the main elements of the life is water. Water is the most important part of the survival and life, which in case of shortage, an inherent competition and conflict on it will be raised among different geographical residents. No country will maintain its economic and political stability unless being sure of its water resources. Since Iran is located in the dry and semi-arid region of the world, it has always faced sever limited water resources to meet its population needs in different parts. Given the level of precipitation as well as unequal distribution of water resources in different parts of the country, the water resources and the optimal management of these resources has become important for Iran, as well, it turn to a Hydro-politic issue. Hydro-politic issues of Iran in a national scale are formed under the influence of national policies and the water resource management. The water transfer solution from regions with a high water level to dry regions is considered as the most important options for the water management in Iran. Regardless of economic and technical problems, This issue in Iran has always faced the social and political implications within the framework of the crisis and Hydro-politics challenges. Hydro-politics, as an important subject of political geography which examines the role of water in political behaviors, consists of different approaches such as conflict and collaboration, conflict and interaction among individuals and groups. It has been defined as the efforts to exercise the domination and exclusive use of water resources. The Hydro-politics can be explained as the study of conflicts and collaboration on the distribution of water resources among political units, or the study of the interactions of political units on the water resources at the local, national and regional levels, accordingly the concepts of Hydro-politics challenges at the local, national and regional scales will be formed. Therefore, if there is a Imbalance between water supply and the intensity of its demand in the place, then a crisis would be arisen and when this imbalance cannot be solved using a managerial strategy, then the Interaction would be replaced the conflict, and the Hydropolitics would be formed either in the local dimension and in the national or global dimensions. The present study was conducted through the descriptive-analytical approach to answer the following question, "How has the water transfer in Iran become a Hydro-politics challenge?" The management of water resources of Iran with a centralized and governmental structure, along with tangible and intangible policies, has led the water shortage to be changed into water crisis and eventually, has created the Hydropolitics challenges in Iran. The water shortage and crisis are the important concepts in Hydro-politics. They have a fundamental role in forming the Hydro-politics challenges. The water crisis on a national scale can cause stress and conflicts. These stresses have been resulted from water shortage in the central regions of Iran, for example, Isfahan, Yazd, Kerman and their adjacent regions with a relatively high water level in Zagros Mountains. In the other words, the Hydro-politic challenges in the central regions of Iran are formed based on the sustainability of the water crisis in these areas. Since water is considered as a national property and capital in the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran, then the government and the ministry of power have the authority to solve the inter-sectional problems. Therefore, a centralized management of using the water resources has been formed without the participation of local institutions. Water transfer from regions with relatively good hydrologic power in Iran to places with a water shortage without consideration of its social, political and economic consequences, particularly the lack of attention to Iran's political geography regionalism, would be caused intense local and regional competition on the acquisition of water resources. It also leads to the negative political activities of people and authorities. This study has evaluated the Hydro-Politic factors of water transfer. It has been concluded that in spite of the fundamental limitations and water resources shortage in Iran, the Hydro-Politic challenges of water transfer have been caused by the weaknesses of management and tangible and intangible policy makings in the management of water resources. The negative political regionalism is among the main effective factors on the political activism. If these actions and challenges continue, then they would have negative social, economic and political and ultimately security consequences.

IntroductionSustainable management of scarce agricultural water resources is an unavoidable necessity for countries facing the incremental water demands and suffering from water deficiencies, such as Iran. In order to reserve the limited existent water resources, dam building can potentially help the more efficient use and allocation of them. Nevertheless, implementing the policy without true comprehensive assessment of its consequences, especially for target communities, can practically lead to destruction of surface water resources and deprivation of natural and human ecosystems from these essential resources. This study aimed to evaluate the attitudes of the villagers residing at the basin of Zhaveh dam in Sanandaj township of Kurdestan province towards the environmental and socio-economic impacts of the project under construction. Implementation of a dynamic and stable program for rural communities entails comprehensive environmental and socioeconomic studies on water resources management projects, such as construction of dams.
Theoretical FrameworkDamming projects are often believed as development attainment tools. The economic impacts of dams on neighboring communities and residents are usually improving the job and income opportunities and available water for agriculture. These positive economic impacts, assumed as the main objectives of dams, are obvious in short terms. Contrarily, negative impacts, which are imposing much more costs on the environment and society, are realized in longer terms. Due to the dominance of structural thinking in the opinion of policy makers, rivers have been the victims of aggressive human developments for enhancing regional economies, similar to the enclosed water bodies. Therefore, dams are built one after another to store water in reservoirs in order to support agricultural activities, increase power generation, and secure urban water supplies. Different experiences of serious ecosystem damages, water quality degradation, inundation of historic sites, land use changes, water seepage, and increased downstream development under the perception of increased water availability make the Iranian dam construction pride questionable. These problems are normally the products of the rapid investment and growth in one sector without considering the dynamic relationships of the growing sector (e.g., economy, agriculture, and infrastructure) with other sectors (e.g., water, environment, and ecosystem) in the absence of an integrated view of the complex human-natural system of systems. A paradigm of thought, which separates “development” from “environment” and implements such aggressive shortsighted regional development plans have resulted in unintended hydro-environmental problems whose long-term costs are significantly higher than their short-term benefits. As a result, growth in one sector has caused secondary negative impacts on other sectors (e.g., ecosystem losses) and a long-term negative feedback or impact on the original sector (e.g., forced migration due to increased water and air pollution). If timely regulatory actions are not taken in these cases, the unintended damages can become irreversible.
MethodologyThe case studied here is the Zhaveh dam in Kurdestan western province of Iran, which was under construction by the year of study, 2014. The statistical population was the villagers of Sirvan District of Sanandaj County, which have directly or indirectly been exposed to the project impacts. 250 household heads were selected as the sample determined by Cronbach test. The required data was gathered primarily and secondary via survey and field operations. To do this, a detailed questionnaire was designed and validated to interview the respondents of 13 selected villages of the region, containing attitudes towards the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of the project. The impacts were evaluated considering two phases: the construction period, since the project’s beginning by the time of the study and the time of the dam water supplying in the future, separately.
Results & DiscussionAccording to the results, some benefits, such as the relative increasing of cultivable lands around the dam, have occurred. Nevertheless, serious vulnerabilities such as loss of noticeable fertile lands, elimination of permanent surface water resources from the ecosystem, and changing other dam downstream land uses have been the considerable consequences of the project perceived and clarified by the residents. In this regard, attitudes towards the dam impacts after water supplying in the future, has been evaluated as more important by the residents, compared to the phase of its construction period. The economic and environmental damages of dam construction considered by the villagers were related to their livelihood instability, losing and inefficiency of their agricultural productive resources, and the undesired impacts on their social relations. However, the villagers’ sense of place and residency motivation remained invulnerable. Relating and assessing the respondents’ attitudes with the macro attributes of their villages revealed that the mentioned negative impacts are evaluated as more influential with regard to the increase in the villages’ population, arable lands, and the distance to the dam location. In fact, the construction of dam has been evaluated as a threat against the region’s dwelling capability and livelihood sustainability.
Conclusions & SuggestionsDam projects are usually implemented considering the national and regional macro objectives, and contrarily the least participation of local communities, in spite of vast environmental and socioeconomic consequences for them. Taking regional and national necessities into account and prioritizing them over the local and rural socioeconomic situations in planning and implementing of dam projects deviates their consequences from their initial objectives. Hydro-environmental and settlement threats are the most important damages, which emerge due to a consideration of the national and regional needs and the infrastructural advantages of dams and neglecting the sustainability requisites of the involved local communities. Unavoidable feedbacks of such processes are irreversible and irremediable for the whole system viability in the long-term.

Drought is considered as one of the vital natural disasters that can be occurred in any climate. Given that drought incidence is inevitable, so its recognition is of important in order to efficient management of water. In this article drought forecasts in Tehran and Mashhad are considered. To this Markov models have been applied. At first stage after preprocessing of data, according to precipitation features, lowest temperature, highest temperature and wind Markov chains were created and the possibility of its incidence for next year was calculated, then at second stage precipitation level, lowest and highest temperature were forecasted by Markov hidden models so that based on them necessary decisions for water source management can be taken. Suggested method was compared based on error rate and accuracy by standard hidden Markov models and Bayesian network. The results show that suggested method on Mashhad collection data had 14% and 31% and on Tehran collection data 10% and 15% better accuracy compared to HMM and Bayesian network, respectively.