جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « monte carlo simulation » در نشریات گروه « جغرافیا »

Earthquake is a natural disaster that provides casualties, loss of financial and environmental every year. Iran due to its location on the belt of seismicity is extremely vulnerable to earthquakes. Also a lot of facilities before design criteria of seismic have been made and unfortunately quality of construction in the country was not suitable. Therefore, with respect to suspicious behavior of networks in possible earthquakes, seismic vulnerability assessment of critical infrastructure is great importance.
In the proposed model initially seismic hazard analysis of based on 2 attenuation relationship for the country done, which according to the uncertainties involved in earthquake (magnitude of earthquake, focal depth and location of epicenter of the earthquake), this operation is selected at random each time and after each hazard analysis, the output of ground shaking (Peak ground acceleration, Peak ground velocity and peak ground displacement) is calculated. If the zone have been the landslide susceptibility or liquefaction susceptibility, then need the output of the hazard analysis of ground failure resulting from the permanent displacement of liquefaction and landslide are entered for each features in to the proposed model. Then the seismic vulnerability functions that for each two hazards of ground shaking and ground failure was put for every lifeline in the model database is used. Finally, according to the available functions, loss estimation of every network would do. All of these steps are for once analysis. So based on the Monte Carlo simulation, All of these operations on 10 thousand times to consider all of the uncertainties and failure modes are repeated then averaging available outputs in the database, so that all failure modes be considered. Therefore, due to the large data attribute and geometry, while the high spatial analyzes on large data as well as mathematical equations for repeated operations, attempted to coding in Visual Studio with programming language C # using .Net Framework and Arc Engine libraries and based on spatial information systems designed and developed that could estimate damage probability of slight, moderate, extensive and complete for each lifeline separately in the form of maps and tables for each feature. In this paper, in order to get a better view this research, models was implemented and analyzed for the city of Neyshabour.