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  • مراد کاویانی راد*، پریسا قربانی سپهر، زکیه آفتابی
    هدف

    مهم ترین هدف این پژوهش شناسایی عوامل کلیدی تاثیرگذار بر مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک محور واحدهای سیاسی- فضایی حوضه آبریز گاوخونی است.

    روش و داده: 

    پژوهش حاضر از نظر هدف کاربردی و از نظر روش پژوهش توصیفی - تحلیلی است. ماهیت داده ها آمیخته و روش گردآوری داده ها به صورت کتابخانه ای، میدانی و پیمایشی است. در این پژوهش بعد از بررسی اسناد و متون معتبر، عوامل موثر بر مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک محور واحدهای سیاسی- فضایی حوضه آبریز گاوخونی شناسایی و برای تعیین عوامل کلیدی از نرم افزار Micmac بهره گرفته شد.

    یافته ها

    43 عامل موثر بر مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک محور واحدهای سیاسی- فضایی حوضه آبریز گاوخونی شناسایی و با توجه به خروجی نرم افزار Micmac در قالب عوامل تعیین کننده (عوامل کلیدی)، دو وجهی یا تنظیمی، تاثیرپذیر و مستقل تنظیم شدند و نه عامل به عنوان عوامل کلیدی تاثیرگذار بر مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک محور واحدهای سیاسی- فضایی حوضه آبریز گاوخونی شناسایی شد.

    نتیجه گیری

    عوامل کلیدی تاثیرگذار بر مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک محور واحدهای سیاسی- فضایی حوضه آبریز گاوخونی از دیدگاه خبرگان پژوهش عبارتند از: افزایش دغدغه محلی- استانی تا حوضه ‎ای - ملی، کاهش سرمایه اجتماعی حاکمیت به ویژه اعتماد، کاهش مشارکت در میان ساکنان حوضه آبریز، آسیب پذیری معیشت ساکنان حوضه آبریز، کاهش تولیدات صنعتی در استان های حوضه آبریز، کاهش نرخ رشد اقتصادی در استان های واقع در حوضه، کاهش فرصت های شغلی در میان ساکنان حوضه آبریز، پیدایش و گسترش گروه ها و باندهای خلافکار و تشدید فعالیت های غیرقانونی است و مناسب ترین راه حل برای بهبود مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک محور واحدهای سیاسی- فضایی حوضه آبریز گاوخونی مدیریت متمرکز و یکپارچه منابع آب به دنبال عدالت اجتماعی، افزایش بازه اقتصادی و پایداری اکولوژیک شناخته شد. به عبارتی با نگرش به تفکیک مدیریت استانی منابع آب و برداشت بی رویه در بخش های مختلف حوضه، انتقال آب به بیرون از حوضه و کشمکش های ناحیه ای و استانی، به نظر می رسد با برپایی مدیریت یکپارچه در حوضه، توجه به نگرش سیستمی و مناسبات همکاری پایه در حوضه می توان به سمت بهبود وضعیت آبی در حوضه آبریز گاوخونی حرکت کرد.

    نوآوری، کاربرد نتایج

    نوآوری این پژوهش شناسایی عوامل کلیدی تاثیرگذار بر مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک محور واحدهای سیاسی- فضایی حوضه آبریز گاوخونی با بهره گیری از نظرات خبرگان دانشگاهی و اجرایی است.

    کلید واژگان: واحدهای سیاسی فضایی, مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک, حوضه آبریز گاوخونی, نرم افزار Micmac}
    Morad Kaviani Rad *, Parisa Ghorbanisepehr, Zakeyeh Aftabi
    Aim

    The most important purpose of this research is to identify the key factors affecting the hydropolitical relations of political-spatial units in the Gavakhuni catchment area.

    Material & Method

     The current research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of research method. The nature of the data is mixed, and the data collection method is library, field, and survey. In this research, after reviewing the authentic documents and texts, the factors affecting the hydropolitical relations of the political-spatial units of the Gavkhoni watershed were identified, and Micmac software was used to determine the key factors. In the following, the researchers provided the provided solutions in the form of a questionnaire to the research experts to check the correctness of the provided solutions and rank them with the FBMW model.

    Findings

     This research has successfully identified 43 factors that significantly influence the hydropolitical relations of political-spatial units in the Gavakhuni catchment basin. These factors, categorized as determining, two-dimensional, influential, and independent, have been further narrowed down to nine key influencing factors. 

    Conclusion

    With the view of the separation of provincial management of water resources and arbitrary harvesting in different parts of the basin, transfer of water out of the basin, and regional and provincial conflicts, it seems that with the establishment of integrated management in the basin, based on the system approach and the basic cooperation relations in the basin, we can move towards improving the water situation in the Gaukhoni catchment basin.

    Innovation, application of the results

    The innovation of this research is identifying key factors affecting the hydropolitical relations of political-spatial units of the Gavakhuni watershed using the opinions of academic and executive experts.

    Keywords: Spatial Political Units, Hydropolitical Relations, The Gavkhuni Watershed, MICMAC Software}
  • Zahra Salimi Dehkordi, Seyed Hamed Mirkarimi *, Marjan Mohammadzadeh, Somayeh Galdavi

    One of the most important parameters affecting the quality of tourism is the climate and weather conditions of the tourist destination. Most of the studies have focused on the seasons and months that are suitable for tourism. However, to determine the right time for tourism, this study has examined the differences in hours conditions during the whole of the year in Alangdareh Forest Park, Golestan province. To do this, meteorological data from the statistical period (2017-2022) was used to calculate the average value of the SET index (standard effective temperature). Then, this index was evaluated as an indicator of thermal comfort using Rayman software. Meteorological data, including temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and cloudiness were entered into the software five times a day. Based on the results, the comfortable days were divided into two separate periods. The first period starts in the middle of April and continues until the middle of May, and the second period is in October. The results of the SET index in terms of hours showed the best time for tourists to visit the park during the winter season is between 12:30 PM and 3:30 PM and during the summer season at 6:30 AM. This information can help tourists choose the best travel time according to their personal preferences. Additionally, the results indicate a continuous increase in the SET index during the six years of the statistical period which indicates a warming climate and a decrease in thermal comfort.

    Keywords: Alangdareh Forest Park, Rayman Software, SET Index, Thermal Comfort, Tourism}
  • فاطمه فلاحتی*، سید امیرحسین گرکانی

    سکونتگاه های روستایی با خصوصیاتی نظیر موقعیت جغرافیایی، ویژگی های محیطی، ساختار کالبدی- فضایی و سطح برخورداری معمولا بیشترین بحران ها را در زمان بروز مخاطرات تجربه می نمایند. ازاین رو شناسایی آسیب پذیری سکونتگاه های روستایی با در نظر گرفتن متغیرها و عوامل موثر، از مهم ترین روش های پیشگیری، کاهش خطر و مدیریت مخاطرات در روستاها به شمار می رود. در شناسایی، اولویت بندی و نحوه اقدام در روستاهای در معرض خطر سوانح طبیعی، از 48857 روستای بالای 20 خانوار در سراسر کشور، حدود 9000 روستای در معرض خطر با ریسک بالا در 5 اولویت دسته بندی و 1418 روستا با اولویت اول مورد بازدید میدانی قرار گرفت. سپس گزارش های بازدید با استفاده از نرم افزار NVIVO تحلیل محتوایی شد. نتایج نشان داد که از 1418 روستای بازدید شده، 1169 روستا با مخاطره سیلاب، 638 روستا با مخاطره زلزله، 393 روستا با حرکات دامنه ای (زمین لغزش، سنگ افتان و غیره)، 33 روستا با فرونشست و فروچاله و 18 روستا با خطر ماسه های روان مواجهند و برخی از روستاها به صورت همزمان چندین مخاطره را تجربه می کنند. همچنین پس از دسته بندی و تعیین فراوانی راهکارهای پیشنهادی جهت کاهش خطر سوانح در روستاهای درمعرض، ساماندهی رودخانه ها و مسیل ها با 05/26 درصد، اجرای طرح های آبخیزداری با 16/17 درصد، جمع آوری و هدایت آب های سطحی و زیرزمینی با 17/10 درصد، ایجاد / بهسازی امکانات زیربنایی با 43/8 درصد و رعایت حد و حریم بستر با 04/8 درصد، بالاترین آمار را به خود اختصاص دادند. هم زمانی آمار بالای روستاهای درمعرض خطر سیلاب و پرتکرارترین مشکلات شناسایی شده در روستاها در حوزه ی کاهش خطر سیلاب، و از طرفی ویژگی طبیعی و جغرافیایی کشور ما و تشدید اثرات تغییر اقلیم و نظریه های موجود بر پایه افزایش احتمال وقایع حدی، ضرورت توجه به عملکرد دستگاه های ذی مدخل و شفاف سازی تکالیف و مسئولیت های ذاتی هر دستگاه و روابط میان متولیان و ذی مدخلان در ارتباط با چالش های شناسایی شده را بیش ازپیش نمایان می سازد.

    کلید واژگان: تحلیل محتوا, روستاهای درمعرض خطر, سوانح طبیعی, ایمن سازی, نرم افزار NVIVO}
    Fatemeh Falahati *, Seyed Amirhossein Garakani
    Introduction

    Rural settlements, characterized by their geographic location, environmental features, spatial-physical structure, and level of resources, often face the greatest challenges during hazardous events. Identifying the vulnerabilities of these rural settlements by considering various influential factors is one of the most important methods for preventing, reducing risks, and managing hazards in these areas. To identify the hazards that affect a significant number of villages across Iran and to recognize the weaknesses and problems many of these villages face when dealing with such hazards, field reports from 1418 villages were analyzed using NVivo software. This content analysis involved categorizing, counting, and determining the frequency of identified natural hazards, as well as the solutions proposed by expert inspection teams. The study’s findings identify the most common current challenges and problems these villages encounter in facing natural hazards. These results can be utilized to reduce the risk of natural disasters and enhance the safety of villages, identify weaknesses and strengths, prioritize needs in action plans, and assess the performance and effectiveness of the activities of relevant executive agencies in crisis management.

    Methodology

    The research method employed in this study is quantitative content analysis, a technique used to objectively and systematically describe explicit content in a quantifiable manner. In this quantitative approach, the primary aim is to measure the frequency of various thematic categories. The stages of content analysis, as outlined by Borg and Gall (1989), involve six steps: identifying relevant documents, setting research objectives, selecting a sample of documents, developing a categorization method, counting the frequency of each category, and interpreting the results. Notably, the study utilized a deductive approach for developing categorization methods. This involved analyzing the content of field visit reports that proposed solutions for safeguarding villages at risk of natural disasters. The analysis focused on themes and concepts related to disaster risk reduction and village safety, using NVivo software for data management and analysis.

    Findings

    After an initial study and screening using the specified criteria, priority villages at risk of natural disasters were identified at a national level. Following validation from local experts, the Housing Foundation for the Islamic Revolution and Crisis Management in all 31 provinces confirmed the list of villages identified during the preliminary studies. A total of 1418 villages across the country were visited through field assessments conducted by teams of disaster risk specialists. Following the submission of the field visit reports, the content of these reports was analyzed using NVivo software. This content analysis revealed that out of the 1,418 visited villages, 1169 villages (82.4%) were at risk of flooding, 638 villages were at risk of earthquakes (45%), 393 villages were at risk of landslide-related hazards (such as landslides and falling rocks) (27.7%), 33 villages were at risk of subsidence and sinkholes (2.3%), and 18 villages were at risk of moving sands (1.3%).

    Discussion and Conclusion

    After categorizing and determining the frequency of proposed solutions for disaster risk reduction in at-risk villages, it was found that the highest percentages were attributed to the following measures: organizing rivers and streams at 26.5%, implementing watershed management plans at 17.6%, collecting and directing surface and groundwater at 17.1%, establishing or improving infrastructure facilities at 8.4%, and maintaining bank and riverbed boundaries at 8.4%. The correlation between the high number of villages at risk of flooding and the most frequently identified issues related to flood risk reduction underscores the significance of the natural and geographical characteristics of our country, as well as the exacerbated effects of climate change and theories suggesting an increased likelihood of extreme events. This further highlights the necessity for attention to the performance of involved agencies and the clarification of each agency’s duties and responsibilities, as well as the relationships among stakeholders regarding the identified challenges.

    Keywords: Content Analysis, Villages At Risk, Natural Disasters, Immunization, NVIVO Software}
  • زینب برادران خانیان*، زهرا آذری، حسین اصغرپور

    شهرنشینی فزاینده، افزایش روز افزون جمعیت و مشکلات عظیم اجتماعی، اقتصادی و زیست محیطی حاصل از آن ها، به همراه رشد و گسترش فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات، شاخص اصلی قرن 21 در سطح جهان است. برای مقابله با چالش شهرها، مفهوم شهر هوشمند و حکمرانی خوب شهری به عنوان یک پیش شرط از سوی سازمان های ملی و بین المللی ارائه شده است؛ به عبارت دیگر، در حکمرانی خوب شهری و شهر هوشمند، گفت وگوی باز بین شهروندان و مقامات شهری از طریق یک پلتفرم ICT فعال است. هدف از این مطالعه، پاسخ به این پرسش است که با تغییرات جدید در حوزه فناوری در شهرهای کشور، به ویژه کلان شهرها، وضعیت شاخص های حکمرانی خوب در کلان شهر مورد مطالعه به چه صورت است؟ و آیا مدیریت شهری در کلان شهر تبریز قادر به ارتقای شاخص های حکمرانی مطلوب شهری در راستای شاخص های شهری هوشمند است؟ پاسخ به سوال های پژوهش، با به کارگیری ترکیبی از مدل های کمی و کیفی انجام شده است. شاخص های شهر هوشمند و حکمرانی خوب شهری با استفاده از ابزار پرسش نامه و آمار موجود در سالنامه های آماری استخراج شده و در محیط برنامه نویسی پایتون تجزیه و تحلیل شده است. نتایج نشان می دهد که امتیاز کلی حکمرانی خوب در کلان شهر تبریز، 436/0 از واحد است. از مجموع پنج شاخص معرفی شده برای حکمرانی خوب شهری توسط سازمان ملل، شاخص «اثربخشی» مطلوب ترین و شاخص «تساوی» نامطلوب ترین وضعیت را در میان سایر شاخص ها به خود اختصاص داده اند.

    کلید واژگان: شهر هوشمند, حکمرانی خوب شهری, فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات, محیط برنامه نویسی پایتون}
    Zeinab Baradaran Khanian *, Zahra Azari, Hossein Asgharpur

    Increasing urbanization, population growth and the social, economic and environmental problems resulting from them, along with the growth and expansion of information and communication technology - as the main axis of transformation in the world - is the main feature of the 21st century. To deal with the challenge of cities, the concept of smart city has been presented. Good urban governance is presented as a prerequisite for a smart city by national and international organizations. Therefore, the idea of urban management and governance has been removed from its traditional state and improved. In other words, good and smart governance involves an open dialogue between citizens and city officials through an active ICT platform. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to answer the question that with the new changes in the field of technology in the cities of the country, especially the metropolises, what is the state of good governance indicators in the studied metropolis? And is the urban management in Tabriz metropolis able to improve the desirable urban governance indicators in line with the smart city indicators? The answers to the research questions have been done by using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. The indicators of smart city and good urban governance have been extracted using questionnaire tools and statistics available in statistical yearbooks and analyzed in Python programming environment. The results show that the overall score of good governance in Tabriz metropolis is 0.436. Among the five indicators introduced by the United Nations, the effectiveness index is the most favorable and the equality index is the most unfavorable among other indicators.

    Keywords: Smart City, Good Urban Governance, information, communication technology, Python software}
  • مهدی هریسچیان، حسن محمودزاده*، رسول قربانی

    در این پژوهش به ارزیابی تاثیرات خدمت اکوسیستمی خنک کنندگی زیرساخت های سبز بر کاهش جزایر گرمایی شهری تبریز پرداخته شده است. بدین صورت که ظرفیت کاهش جزایر گرمایی تبریز در هر سه دوره زمانی 1363، 1381 و 1401 در 5 کلاس از بهترین حالت تا بدترین حالت با استفاده از مدل سرمایش شهری نرم افزار InVEST مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفتند. نتایج نشان داد که کلان شهر تبریز در بهترین حالت در سال 1363 یعنی در کلاس 69/0 تا 83/0 درصد 47/15 درصد، در سال 1381 در کلاس 66/0 تا 90/0 درصد 63/15 درصد و در سال 1401 در کلاس 69/0 تا 83/0 درصد 93/13 درصد توانسته جزایر گرمایی را کاهش دهد. به عبارتی کلان شهر تبریز در کاهش جزایر گرمایی در هر سه دوره به خوبی عمل نکرده و در بدترین شرایط قرار دارد. در هر سه دوره زمانی، الگوی کاهش جزایر گرمایی تبریز منطبق با الگوی کاربری اراضی کشاورزی و فضای سبز از هر سه نوع الگوی خوشه ای، بلوکی و تکه تکه بوده است. الگوی کاهش جزایر گرمایی تبریز در سال 1401 بر خلاف سال های 1363 و 1381 بیشتر از نوع تکه تکه و کمتر از نوع خوشه ای و بلوکی بوده که این مورد نشان دهنده این است که زیرساخت های سبز تبریز رفته رفته تکه تکه و کوچک شده است. کلان شهر تبریز در سال های 1363، 1381 و 1401 به ترتیب 226640، 562269 و 1263294 مگاوات ساعت صرفه جویی انرژی ناشی از کاهش جزایر گرمایی به واسطه زیرساخت های سبز شهری را داشته است.

    کلید واژگان: جزایر گرمایی شهری, خدمت اکوسیستمی خنک کنندگی, زیرساخت های سبز, مدل سرمایش شهری, نرم افزار Invest}
    Mahdi Herischian, Hassan Mahmoudzadeh *, Rasoul Ghorbani

    This research evaluated the effects of green infrastructure cooling ecosystem service on mitigating urban heat islands in Tabriz metropolitan areas. In this way, the mitigation capacity of the heat islands of Tabriz in all three periods of 1984, 2002, and 2022 was evaluated in 5 classes, from the best case to the worst case, using the urban cooling model of the InVEST software. The results showed that Tabriz condition in 1984, i.e., 15.47% in the class of 0.69 to 0.83%; in 2002, 15.63% in the class of 0.66 to 0.90%; and in 2022, 13.93% in the class of 0.69 to 0.83%, was able to mitigate heat islands. In other words, the Tabriz metropolitan did not perform well in mitigating heat islands in all three periods and is in the worst condition. In all three time periods, the mitigation pattern of heat islands in Tabriz has been consistent with the pattern of agricultural land use and green space of all three types of cluster, block, and fragmented patterns. The pattern of mitigation of heat islands in Tabriz in 2022, unlike in 1984 and 2002, was more fragmented and less than cluster and block type, indicating that Tabriz's green infrastructure has gradually become fragmented and smaller. In 1984, 2002, and 2022, Tabriz Metropolitan had 226,640, 562,269, and 1,263,294 megawatt hours of energy savings due to the mitigation of heat islands due to urban green infrastructure.

    Keywords: Urban Heat Islands, Urban Cooling Ecosystem Service, Green Infrastructure, Urban Cooling Model, Invest Software}
  • مجید گلوئی، آرتمیس معتمدی*

    طرح مساله: 

    جریان واریزه ای یکی از پدیده های مخرب طبیعی و زیست محیطی است که بدلیل ماهیت پیچیده فیزیکی آن، حل معادلات حاکم بر آن بصورت تحلیلی بسیار دشوار و در صورت عدم ساده سازی، در شرایط واقعی تقریبا غیر ممکن است. نرم افزار (RAMMS) یکی از مدل های عددی جهت شبیه سازی حرکت جریان واریزه ای است. در این تحقیق، اثر ابعاد سلولی نقشه DEM بر روی دقت نتایج این مدل بررسی شده است.

    روش شناسی: 

    یک نقشه DEM با ابعاد سلولی 1 متر در یک منطقه مستعد جریان واریزه ای انتخاب شده و با استفاده از RAMMS، مدلسازی در آن صورت گرفته است. سپس با استفاده از نرم افزار ArcGIS، نقشه هایی با ابعاد سلولی 2، 3، 4، 5، 10، 15 و 20 متر از روی نقشه اصلی و به روش Bilinear ساخته شده و مجددا در مدلسازی مورد استفاده قرار گرفته است.

    یافته های تحقیق: 

    نتایج نهایی نشان داد که مدل RAMMS حساسیت بسیار شدیدی به اندازه سلول نقشه DEM دارد بطوریکه با ثابت در نظر گرفتن سایر پارامترها، فقط تغییر سلول نقشه از 1 متر به 20 متر باعث ایجاد خطای 548+ درصدی در پهنه کلی جریان، 67- درصدی در حداکثر عمق جریان و 112+ درصدی در جابجایی کلی جریان واریزه ای گردید. همچنین مشخص شد که نرخ تغییر میزان خطا در پارامترهای جریان واریزه ای، برای نقشه های با اندازه سلولی کمتر از 5 متر تقریبا رشد کمی دارد اما برای نقشه های بزرگتر از 5 متر، این میزان خطا رشد بسیار زیادی دارد.

    نتیجه نهایی: 

    به نظر می رسد که نرم افزار RAMMS فقط برای نقشه های DEM با ابعاد سلولی خیلی کوچک (کمتر از 5 متر) کارایی مناسبی داشته باشد و با افزایش ابعاد سلول، میزان خطا به مقدار بسیار زیادی افزایش می یابد بطوریکه دیگر خروجی مدل قابل اطمینان نیست.

    کلید واژگان: جریان واریزه ای, نرم افزار RAMMS, نقشه دیجیتالی ارتفاعی, دقت مدل عددی}
    Majid Galoie, Artemis Motamedi *
    Introduction

    Debris flow, which is known as the most destructive natural hazard, is a complex environmental phenomenon in which a large volume of moving mass including mud, sand, rock, soil, water, and air travels down a slope under the impact of gravitational force. Due to this phenomenon's complex physical nature, the governing equations' analytical solution is complicated and almost impossible in real situations.
    In the last two decades, with the advancement in computer technologies and numerical methods, some robust software has been developed to simulate debris flow and particle movement. The Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) is a two-dimensional model to calculate the motion of geophysical mass movements (snow avalanches, rockslides, debris flows, and shallow landslides) from onset to runout in three-dimensional terrain. Since the numerical analysis in this software is based on the terrain parameters which are extracted from a Digital Elevation Model (DEM), the accuracy of the model might be very dependent on the resolution of the DEM. For this reason, this study's main aim is quantitively evaluating errors and uncertainties in RAMMS-Debris flow model outputs induced by the impact of DEM cell size.

    Methodology

    RAMMS extracts all topographical parameters (i.e., slope angle, flow directions, streams, altitudes, inundation areas) from a DEM (ASCII or GeoTIFF format). Since the resolution of the DEM and the resampling process can significantly affect the physical terrain parameters of a given watershed such as the mean slope, altitudes, the cross-section of rivers, etc., therefore the RAMMS outputs may be altered with the changing of the DEM resolution which causes the propagation of errors in modeling and calculations.
    To investigate the impact of DEM cell size on the accuracy of RAMMS-Debris flow modeling, a watershed with high-resolution DEM (1 m), located in northeastern Iran, is considered. Then, this basic DEM is resampled using the bilinear method in ArcGIS to build DEM maps in various cell sizes such as 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 15, and 20 m. Since the modeling process is based on the Voellmy-fluid friction model, the viscous-turbulent and the Dry-Coulomb type friction coefficients are considered constant at 200 and 0.2 respectively. Also, all other input data such as simulation time, inflow hydrograph, fluid density, etc. are considered constant for all scenarios.

    Results and discussion

    The analysis showed that by increasing the DEM cell size from 1 meter to 20 meters, the mean slope of the computational domain decreased up to 4% such that, changing in DEM cell size from 1 meter to 10 meters decreases the mean slope by only 1% but with increasing the cell size to more than 10 m, the mean slope reduces significantly.
    In addition, the final results showed that the RAMMS model had an extreme sensitivity to the Dem cell size such that by keeping other parameters constant, only changing the Dem cell size from 1 meter to 20 meters caused an error of +548% in the overall inundation area, -67% in the overall maximum flow depth, and +112% in the run-out distance. It was also found that the magnitude of errors in the modeled debris flow parameters using DEMs with a cell size of less than 5 meters was almost small whereas for cell sizes larger than 5 meters, it was very large. Therefore, it seems that the RAMMS software generally works well only for DEMs with tiny cell sizes (less than 5 meters).

    Conclusion

    In this research, the effect of the cell size of the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) on the accuracy of the results of the RAMMS model has been investigated. For this purpose, a DEM with a cell size of 1 meter was selected in an area that is prone to debris flow, then using ArcGIS software, some coarser maps with cell sizes of 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 15, and 20 meters were made using the bilinear method. based on the results obtained from the modeling of various scenarios in this study, it is found that the RAMMS model has an extreme sensitivity to the cell size of the DEM map. Although the smaller the cell size of the DEM map, the higher the accuracy of the model, the increase in the DEM cell size (considering other parameters being fixed) causes a drastic increase in modeling error. This amount of error in DEM-20 m is almost 5.5 times that of DEM-1 m. Therefore, the important point in debris flow modeling with RAMMS is to use a suitable DEM cell size to increase the accuracy of the model. According to the results, if the DEM cell size is less than 5 meters, the magnitude of error is not significant and can be ignored.

    Keywords: debris flow, RAMMS software, Digital elevation model (DEM), MODEL ACCURACY}
  • خاطره مغانی رحیمی، مصطفی بهزادفر، سمانه جلیلی صدرآباد *

    اختلالات سلامت روان به عنوان یکی از تهدیدهای بزرگ برای سلامت انسان به خصوص انسان شهرنشین از مسائل مهم قرن حاضر می باشند. اما با وجود اهمیت سلامت روان شهری راهکارهای ارتقا آن به خوبی مطالعه نشده است. این موضوع در شهر تهران که نیاز جدی به کاربست این دسته از راهکارها دارد اهمیت چندین برابر پیدا کرده است. به همین منظور این پژوهش با هدف تعیین راهکارهای کلیدی ارتقا سلامت روان این شهر انجام شده است. روش تحقیق در این پژوهش توصیفی-تحلیلی بوده و ابتدا با استفاده از تحلیل محتوا راهکارهای موثر در ارتقاء سلامت روان شهری شناسایی شد. سپس به تحلیل ساختاری با استفاده از نرم افزار (MICMAC) و شناسایی راهکارهای کلیدی پرداخته شده و در نهایت چگونگی کاربست این راهکارها در برنامه های شهرداری تهران و قابلیت اجرای آنها مورد بحث واقع شده است. یافته های پژوهش حاکی از شناسایی چهار نوع متغیر شامل متغیرهای تاثیر گذار، متغیرهای مستقل، متغیرهای وابسته و متغیرهای تنظیم کننده است که سه راهکار، تدوین و اجرای طرح جامع سلامت روان، توجه به طراحی شهری زیبا و ترویج کننده سلامت روان و استفاده از رویکرد های نوآورانه‎ای مانند برنامه های بهداشتی تلفن همراه و خدمات آنلاین به عنوان متغیرهای تاثیرگذار، اصلی ترین وکلیدی ترین راهکارها محسوب می شوند. در نتیجه با کاربست این راهکارها می‎توان سلامت روان شهری را تا حد چشمگیری ارتقا داد.

    کلید واژگان: سلامت روان شهری, نوروربانیسم, استرس شهری, مدلسازی ساختاری-تفسیری, تحلیل محتوا, نرم افزار MICMAC}
    Khatereh Moghani Rahimi, Mostafa Behzadfar, samaneh jalilisadrabad *

    Mental health disorders pose a significant threat to human well-being, particularly affecting urban populations. Despite the paramount importance of addressing urban mental health, effective strategies for improvement remain elusive. This concern has garnered heightened significance in Tehran, a city with a pressing need for viable solutions. This research aims to identify key strategies to enhance the mental health of the city. Employing a descriptive-analytical research method, the study utilizes content analysis and structural analysis to pinpoint crucial solutions. The findings reveal that three primary strategies — the formulation and execution of a comprehensive mental health plan, the integration of aesthetically pleasing urban design to promote mental well-being, and the adoption of innovative approaches such as mobile health programs and online services — are deemed pivotal variables. Consequently, the implementation of these solutions holds the potential to significantly enhance urban mental health in Tehran.

    Keywords: urban mental health, neuro-urbanism, urban stress, structural-interpretive modeling, content analysis, MICMAC Software}
  • مجتبی آراسته*، ملیکا زارعی، خلیل حاجی پور

    امروزه به دلیل تفاوت و تنوع عملکرد بنادر، نقش بنادر تغییر نموده و همین موضوع موجب ایجاد تغییرات قابل توجه در نحوه توسعه فضاهای شهری و همچنین تغییرات ساختاری در روابط میان بنادر و شهرها شده است. هدف از انجام این پژوهش، شناسایی و تبیین متغیرهای کلیدی موثر بر توسعه ساختار فضایی روابط بندر-شهر دبی است. روش پژوهش مبتنی بر الگوی تحلیلی-توصیفی و با بهره گیری از تکنیک روش تحلیل اثرات متقاطع است. شیوه نمونه گیری، هدفمند بوده و از نرم افزار Micmac برای تحلیل داده ها استفاده شده است. یافته های پژوهش نشان می دهد مدل مفهومی پژوهش در چهار عامل اصلی قابل دسته بندی است: عوامل پیشران یا تاثیرگذار، عوامل دووجهی، عوامل وابسته یا تاثیرپذیر، و عوامل مستقل. متغیری همچون " درآمد، هزینه و سرمایه-گذاری در شهر-بندر " ذیل عامل پیشران، متغیری همچون "وجود تجهیزات و زیرساخت های پیشرفته حمل ونقل چندوجهی در بندر" ذیل عامل دووجهی، متغیری همچون " کیفیت محیط زندگی و شهرسازی مطلوب" ذیل عامل تاثیرپذیر، و متغیری همچون " حفاظت از محیط زیست و توسعه پایدار شهر-بندر" ذیل عامل مستقل طبقه بندی می شوند. مجموعه این عوامل ساختار فضایی روابط بندر و شهر دبی را شکل داده و الگوی توسعه سریع این منطقه کلان شهری را با توزیع هدفمند درآمدهای ناشی از تجارت و گردشگری رقم زده است.

    کلید واژگان: بندر-شهر دبی, تحلیل اثرات متقاطع, ساختار فضایی, نرم افزار MICMAC}
    Mojtaba Arasteh *, Melika Zarei, Khalil Hajipoor

    During the last century, ports of Persian Gulf become the most important storage, refining and transportation of crude oil, oil derivation, petrochemical products and also, business activities. Nowadays, due to functional diversity between ports, the impact of port activities on the development of urban spaces will be different, and this issue leads to structural differences of port cities. The purpose of this research is to identify the key variables affecting the relations and spatial structure of port-city in Dubai as the most thriving and successful port-city in the Persian Gulf. This research is based on deductive reasoning and carried out by analysis of cross effects with secondary data (results of other prominent articles) and also primary data (questionnaire). sampling method is based on purposive sampling and Micmac software was used to analyze the data. Output of Micmac software shows the position of the instability of the system. Therefore, the position of each variables in the conceptual model can be categorized to driver, linkage, dependent, and autonomous factors. The research findings indicate 4 variables (like as “income, cost and investmnets in port-city”) can be introduced as a driver factor, 5 variables (like as “advanced multimodal transportation in the port”) can be introduced as a linkage factor, 6 variables (like as “quality of living environment and desirable city”) can be introduced as a dependent factor, 3 variables (like as “environmental protection and sustainable development of the city-port”) can be introduced as an autonomous factor. The rapid development of Dubai can be explained by the purposeful distribution of revenues from trade and tourism

    Keywords: Port-City of Dubai, Analysis of cross effects, Spatial structure, Micmac Software}
  • شیوا سرتیاک، امیرمسعود رحیمی*، مژگان زعیم دار، سید علی جوزی، حمیدرضا خالدی

    سیستم حمل ونقل شهری یکی از مهم ترین و حساس ترین زیرساخت های توسعه شهری است که توجه ویژه ای جهت توسعه و بهره برداری از آن لازم است. حمل ونقل شهری به عنوان یکی از بزرگ ترین چالش های زیرساختی پیش روی کلان شهرها شناخته شده است. هدف از این مطالعه ارزیابی سیستم حمل ونقل شهری با استفاده از نرم افزار ترنسکد در شبکه معابر شهری از منظر مدیریت بحران در زمان تخلیه است. روش پیشنهادی بر روی 15 خروجی شبکه حمل ونقل شهر اصفهان موردبررسی قرار گرفت. اطلاعات موردنیاز نظیر شبکه حمل ونقل با استفاده از داده های مطالعات جامع حمل ونقل شهر اصفهان جمع آوری شده است. در این پژوهش ابتدا کوتاه ترین مسیرها بین مبادی و مقاصد با استفاده از نرم افزار TRANSCAD محاسبه شد و ماتریس های مبدا- مقصد بر اساس 30 درصد از افرادی که قصد خروج از شهر در زمان بحران را دارند؛ ساخته شد. سپس خروجی ها به ترتیب از شبکه حذف شده و فرایند تخصیص ترافیک با استفاده از نرم افزار صورت گرفت؛ نتایج تخصیص نشان داد که خروجی 3657 (جاده نایین) بیش ترین زمان صرف شده در کل شبکه حمل ونقل در یک ساعت و با استفاده از ماتریس 30 درصدی در مقایسه با سناریوی پایه را دارد، همچنین خروجی ها ازلحاظ مجموع طول کمان ها با حجم بیش از ظرفیت و دو برابر ظرفیت رتبه بندی شدند و مشخص شد که خروجی 4639 (آزادراه ذوب آهن) در رتبه اول قرار دارد. درنهایت سناریوها بر اساس هزینه تسهیلات و خدمات ترافیکی برحسب میلیون ریال بر ساعت (ماترس 30 درصدی) رتبه بندی شدند و مشخص شد سناریو 4639 (آزادراه ذوب آهن) در رتبه اول و سناریو 2003 (بلوار زینبیه (جاده حبیب آباد)) در رتبه آخر قرار گرفت.

    کلید واژگان: حمل و نقل شهری, ارزیابی سیستم حمل ونقل, برنامه ریزی سناریویی, نرم افزار ترنسکد, بحران}
    Shiva Sartiak, AmirMasoud Rahimi *, Mojgan Zaeimdar, Seyed Ali Jozi, Hamidreza Khaledi
    Introduction

    The urban transportation system is one of the most important and sensitive infrastructures of urban development, which requires special attention for its development and exploitation. Urban transportation is known as one of the biggest infrastructural challenges facing big cities. During the occurrence of incidents such as floods, storms, tsunamis, terrorist operations, the role of the road network in traffic, transportation and relief will be much more prominent and vital than in normal conditions. As a result of these incidents, the transportation infrastructures suffer fundamental problems, in the provision of service or total failure, their vulnerability analysis is very important. The vulnerability of the transportation network includes terrorist attacks and natural disasters, which reduce the service level of the transportation network. All these events are considered unusual events, which happen in the transportation network with different possibilities, and the consequences of their occurrence are also different.Accidents, from the point of view of vulnerability in the transportation system, are those events that cause disruption in traffic. These events can be natural, sudden, and unpredictable, such as severe adverse weather or terrorist activities, all of which affect network performance. The common feature of all these incidents is that they all cause negative effects on the service of the road network. In other words, an incident is an event, which directly or indirectly causes a significant decrease in the service of an arc/route/road in the network. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the urban transportation system using Transcode software in the urban road network from the point of view of crisis management during evacuation.

    Methodology

    The current research is descriptive and analytical in terms of its methodology and in terms of purpose, it is practical-developmental. In this research, based on the modeling of the transportation network in Transcode specialized software, a method for prioritizing the role of roads in the urban road network during evacuation is proposed. For this reason, the travel time of the entire network has been used as a measure to determine the efficiency and effectiveness of the transportation network. Considering 16 scenarios, the demand matrix was obtained for the discharge conditions of Isfahan's transportation network, using the gravity model, with one limitation. Then, traffic allocation was done using Transcode software, and according to the mentioned process, the designated routes; respectively removed from the network and the allocation process was done. 30% of the city's population is considered to determine the number of people who travel out of the city every hour. According to the population and housing statistics of 2016, the average household population in urban areas is about 3.5 people.In this research, first, the shortest routes between origins and destinations were calculated using TransCAD software, and origin-destination matrices were created based on 30% of people who intend to leave the city during the crisis. Then the outputs were removed from the network, respectively, and the traffic allocation process was done using software; In order to perform traffic allocation, limited software’s are used, and in this study, TransCAD 4.5 software was used, which is one of the most updated and famous specialized software’s for transportation engineering. To perform traffic allocation, using TransCAD software, it is necessary to introduce the road network, the origin-destination demand matrix, and then the performance function to the software, and after that, the software performs the allocation operation, and the outputs, it includes the balance flow of each arc in each direction, the travel time of each arc in each direction, the ratio of volume to capacity of each arc and etc.In order to implement this process, first the passages and their intersection points are called in the software environment; Then, the transportation network and its characteristics will be defined; At this stage, the centers of the traffic areas, the status of inactive or blocked roads, the status of circulations at the crossing points of the roads, etc. will be determined. In the next step, the construction of the source-destination matrix will be done at the time of the crisis, in which the population parameters of the districts, the distance of each district to the exit destinations of the city, and the number of people who will be sent to the exit points every hour will be done., is used.After this stage, it comes to the traffic allocation process, in which, using the travel time-volume functions, which are built based on the characteristics of the roads, people's trips will be allocated through different routes from their origins to their destinations found, and the traffic volume of each passage will be determined.

    Results and discussion

    The allocation results showed that exit 3657 (Nain Road) has the most time spent in the entire transportation network, in one hour, and using a 30% matrix, compared to the base scenario. Also, the outlets were ranked in terms of the total length of the arcs, with a volume exceeding the capacity, and twice the capacity, and it was determined that the outlet 4639 (Azadrah Zob Ahan) is in the first place. The scenarios were ranked based on the cost of traffic facilities and services, in millions of Rials per hour (30% matrix), and it was found that scenario 4639 (Zob Ahan Freeway) ranked first, and scenario 2003 (Zainbiye Boulevard (Habib Abad Road)) ranked last.

    Conclusion

    This study showed that, when a crisis occurs, there is access to transportation for the residents of Isfahan metropolis, which in order of time spent, the Nain road exit scenario shows the most time spent compared to other scenarios, and the residents of the city can use outputs that have less time spent than other outputs in the network. Finally, suitable solutions for use in the field of urban transportation were presented; these solutions include:- Preventing the blocking of standard and safe exits, to evacuate the population and timely arrival of relief forces, in times of crisis. It is possible to use a similar method to identify parallel routes in order to provide relief services or evacuate the population in the city of Isfahan. Considering the appropriate emergency evacuation route for crowded places, such as subway stations, passenger terminals, uneven intersections, underground tunnels, etc. Determining and equipping emergency evacuation routes, as well as alternative routes, for routes that are likely to be damaged, for the rapid evacuation of the city population, and its different areas, with logical methods, and testing it by conducting appropriate maneuvers to educate citizens. Informing, educating the public and conducting appropriate maneuvers to train citizens for emergencies with a relatively realistic simulation of specific threats.

    Keywords: Urban Transportation, Evaluation of transport system, scenario planning, TransCAD software, Crisis}
  • آمنه علی بخشی، محمدرضا پورمحمدی*، رسول قربانی

    در سال های اخیر مفهوم سیستم های نوآوری منطقه ای به طور گستردهای تکامل یافته و به عنوان پایه و اساسی برای سیاست گذاری استفاده می شود و دربرگیرنده سیستمی است که در آن بنگاه ها و دانشگاه ها با بازیگران منطقه ای تعامل داشته و در نتیجه روابط درهم تنیده اجتماعی و هم جواری فضایی با عناصر منطقه ای به یادگیری تعاملی و نوآوری دست می یابد و در پی ارتقاء ظرفیت های نوآوری بنگاه ها و دانشگاه ها، به پویایی توسعه در مناطق یاری می رسانند؛ در این راستا اهدف از پژوهش حاضر سناریونگاری نوآوری منطقه ای در کلان شهر تبریز با رویکرد آینده پژوهی می باشد. این پژوهش از لحاظ هدف، کاربردی و از نظر ماهیت، توصیفی-تحلیلی و جهت گردآوری اطلاعات مورد نیاز آن نیز از دو روش کتابخانه ای و میدانی بهره گرفته شده است. جامعه آماری پژوهش شامل 32 نفر از افراد واجد شرایط در بخش صنعت، دانشگاه و دولت می باشند که به صورت نمونه گیری هدفمند انتخاب شده اند. برای تجزیه وتحلیل اطلاعات نیز از روش پویش محیطی، نرم افزارهای میک مک و سناریو ویزارد و روش سوات استفاده شده است. یافته های حاصل از روش پویش محیطی نشان می دهد که 71 عامل بر نوآوری منطقه ای در کلان شهر تبریز اثرگذار می باشد که از میان این عوامل و با تحلیل های حاصل از نرم افزار میک مک، 13 عامل به عنوان عوامل کلیدی در نوآوری منطقه ای کلان شهر تبریز شناخته شده اند. سپس برای هر کدام از عوامل کلیدی سناریوهای محتمل طراحی و با استفاده از نرم افزار سناریوویزارد مورد تحلیل قرارگرفته اند، که سه سناریوی قوی، ضعیف و باورکردنی استخراج شده است؛ از میان آنها سناریوی باورکردنی به دلیل اینکه حد واسط بین دو سناریوی دیگر می باشد با استفاده از روش استقرایی مبنای تحلیل قرار گرفته است و با توجه به آن، سه سناریوی طلایی، هشدار فاجعه برای آینده نوآوری منطقه ای در کلان شهر تبریز متصور شده است.

    کلید واژگان: نوآوری منطقه ای, پنل دلفی, نرم افزار میک مک, سناریو ویزارد, کلان شهر تبریز}
    Ameneh Alibakhshi, Mohammadreza Pourmohammadi *, Rasol Ghorbani
    Introduction

    By entering the 21st century and the rapid process of globalization and changing the role of cities and turning them into centers for attracting capital, goods, information, knowledge, and innovation, we are witnessing the increasing participation of cities in the global economy. An economy that changed from traditional in the last two to three decades today is based on knowledge. Following these changes, the cities of the future must become innovative and competitive to compete, maintain and improve their position in the global arena and respond to the diverse needs of customers. In this regard, when the competition among cities was raised, the urban planning and management system to compete in the international arena and gain this competitive advantage, by changing its attitude from environmental resources to human resources, trying to preserve its limited natural resources and potentials. To base the development of the city on the resources and potentials that are produced and reproduced. Because these resources and forces are human potentials and creative and innovative forces, they seek to upgrade their infrastructure to encourage innovation and include different national, regional, technological, and sector levels. Given that national economic performance is strongly linked to regional economic performance, a regional approach is the most appropriate method to formulate and implement national innovation systems.On the other hand, due to the need for the necessary infrastructure to create innovation in the cities of developing countries, including Iran, and the uncertainty caused by the environmental complexity, the future forecast for the development of innovation has become difficult, so that with the increase of changes and transformations, reliance on planning methods Based on forecasting, it does not meet the needs of the macro management of the country, and the heavy shadow of uncertainties and the emergence of discontinuous and surprising events changed the situation in such a way that predicting the future seems difficult for planners. For this reason, researchers take advantage of the capabilities of the emerging knowledge of futurism and introduce foresight into the planning and forecasting activities, one of which is scenario planning, and its purpose is to expand thinking about the future and widen the range of alternatives. which can be desired, in this regard, the metropolis of Tabriz has advantages such as a dense industrial economic environment as one of the main industrial hubs of the country, the existence of various industrial support institutions, a significant concentration of higher education centers and research centers such as Tabriz University, parks Science and growth centers, strong communication network and ease of communication with other places and markets inside and outside the border have been chosen to plan the development of regional innovation in the metropolis of Tabriz based on the future research approach.

    Methodology

    Double-click for synonyms and definitions (all sites) ✕ Copy text Current research is applied in terms of purpose and narrative analysis in terms of nature. To gather the required information, two library and field methods were employed. In the library method, using the environmental scanning method, the theoretical foundations, background of the subject, and the collection of effective dimensions and indicators in the field of regional innovation were investigated, and in the field method, the required information was completed in several stages by using semi-structured questionnaires. The statistical population of the research also includes 32 qualified people in the industry, university, and government sectors, who were selected by purposeful sampling. To analyze the data, Mic Mac, Scenario Wizard and SWAT software were used, along with the inductive method.

    Results and Discussion

    In this research, to obtain the key factors affecting regional innovation in the metropolis of Tabriz, the Delphi method and environmental survey have been used, and finally, 71 variables have been collected in 5 dimensions; After identifying the required variables and extracting the key factors, Mic Mac software was used. The results of Mic Mac software show that among the 71 factors affecting regional innovation in the Tabriz metropolis, 13 factors including the appropriate culture of productivity, Laws, and regulations, the existence of a teamwork culture between activists and established industrial units, information and communication technology infrastructure, sufficient funding for university research infrastructure, higher education, patent programs, higher education policy, performance evaluation and reward system, financial support, tax system Special and flexible for research and development, the existence of joint research centers between university and industry and the level of interaction and cooperation between university and industry play a key role and each of them somehow causes or accelerates the innovation process of the region at the level of Tabriz metropolis. In this regard, possible scenarios have been designed for each of the key factors, and these scenarios have been analyzed after scoring by Delphi panel experts using the Scenario Wizard software; The results of the analysis of the scenario wizard software show that 3 strong scenarios, 12 believable scenarios, and 8462 weak scenarios are facing regional innovation in Tabriz metropolis.

    Conclusion

    The results of the research show that among the three strong, weak, and believable scenarios, the believable scenario was chosen as the basis of analysis because it was intermediate between the other two scenarios and had the necessary favorability. Interest induction was said to be and the results of the inductive method include three categories: gold scenario, alert scenario, and disaster scenario. Finally, the validity of the scenarios was used to determine the level of implementation of the golden scenarios, disasters and warnings. According to the opinions of the experts, reaching the disaster scenario seems very pessimistic due to the critical conditions in all factors, and the warning scenario does not follow the continuation of the existing situation and the lack of change in the conditions and the improvement of regional innovation. For this reason, the opinions of the experts indicate their consensus on the golden scenarios, which are based on favorable situations in both environmental and organizational dimensions. Because by implementing this scenario and focusing on each of the key drivers, we will see an increase in the level of regional innovation over the given horizon.

    Keywords: Regional innovation, Delphi panel, Micmac software, Scenario Wizard, Tabriz Metropolis}
  • اسماعیل عیسی زاده، زهرا فیروزه

    برنامه های توسعه برای ساخت آینده ای بهتر و یا به تعبیری شکلدهی به ساخت اجتماعی واقعیت آینده کشورها انجام میشود. بخش بسیار مهم این برنامه، مربوط به توسعه منطقه ای است. استان خراسان شمالی با وجود اینکه دارای پتانسیل رشد و توسعه بوده ولی به عنوان یک استان توسعه نیافته و محروم تلقی میشود. از این رو فراهم نمودن زمینه برخورداری از خدمات مختلف اقتصادی، رفاهی و زیربنایی، تسهیلات اجتماعی، فرهتگی و بهداشتی از اساسی ترین شاخص های برنامه ریزی در هر واحد برنامه ریزی به ویژه شهرستان ها است. هدف از مقاله حاضر تعیین شناخت عوامل کلیدی موثر بر توسعه نیافتگی شاخص های اقتصادی، آموزشی، درمانی و زیربنایی استان خراسان شمالی بود. تحقیق از نوع تحقیقات کاربردی و روش انجام آن توصیفی و تحلیلی بوده و روش جمع آوری اطلاعات به دو روش مطالعات کتابخانه ای و پژوهش میدانی صورت گرفت. به منظور رتبه بندی شهرستان های خراسان شمالی از لحاظ توسعه نیافتگی شاخص های اقتصادی، آموزشی - فرهنگی، بهداشتی - درمانی و زیربنایی، از مدل میک مک و نرم افزارهای Excel و Spss و برای ترسیم و تهیه نقشه ها از سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی (GIS) استفاده شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که در میان شهرستان های استان خراسان شمالی در بخش اقتصادی اسفراین، توسعه یافته ترین شهرستان و مانه و سملقان در پایین ترین رتبه توسعه یافتگی قرار داشتند. در بخش شاخص آموزشی - فرهنگی شهرستان گرمه، توسعه یافته ترین و بجنورد توسعه نیافته ترین شهرستان بود. همچنین در بخش شاخص بهداشتی - درمانی شهرستان بجنورد، توسعه یافته ترین و مانه و سملقان توسعه نیافته ترین و در نهایت در شاخص زیربنایی شهرستان شیروان توسعه یافته ترین و مانه و سلمقان توسعه نیافته ترین شهرستان استان خراسان شمالی از نظر دسترسی به شاخص های زیربنایی می باشد.

    کلید واژگان: توسعه نیافتگی, نرم افزار MICMAC, استان خراسان شمالی}
    Esmail Isazade, Zahra firooze

    Development programs are carried out to build a better future, or in other words, to shape the social construction of the future reality of countries. A very important part of this program is related to regional development. Although North Khorasan province has potential for growth and development, it is considered as an underdeveloped and deprived province. Therefore, provision of various economic, welfare and infrastructural services, social facilities, variety and health is one of the most basic planning indicators in each planning unit, especially in the cities. The purpose of this article was to identify key factors affecting the underdevelopment of economic, educational, medical and infrastructure indicators in North Khorasan province. The research is applied research and its method is descriptive and analytical, and the data collection method was done by library studies and field research. In order to rank the cities of North Khorasan in terms of underdevelopment of economic, educational-cultural, health-treatment and infrastructural indicators, Mic Mac model and Excel and Spss software were used, and Geographical Information System (GIS) was used to draw and prepare maps. The results of the research showed that among the cities of North Khorasan province in the economic sector of Esfrain, the most developed city and Mane and Samalghan were in the lowest development rank. Garme city was the most developed and the most underdeveloped city in terms of educational and cultural indicators. In terms of access to infrastructure indicators, Bojnord city is the most developed and Mane and Samlaqan are the least developed in terms of the health index, and Shirvan is the most developed and Mane and Salamqan are the least developed in the infrastructure index of North Khorasan province.

    Keywords: Underdevelopment, MICMAC software, North Khorasan province}
  • مجید گلوئی، آرتمیس معتمدی*
    اهداف

    یکی از پدیده های مخرب طبیعی که اغلب به صورت ناگهانی رخ می دهد و باعث خسارت های شدید مالی و جانی می شود، جریان واریزه ای است. روش های مختلفی به منظور کنترل جریان واریزه ای پیشنهاد شده است اما تحلیل جریان واریزه ای با وجود معادلات پیچیده حاکم بر آن بسیار دشوار و تقریبا غیرممکن است. هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر ارزیابی تاثیر پایه های عمودی بر کنترل جریان واریزه ای است.

    روش شناسی: 

    این پژوهش از نوع تجربی-محاسباتی بوده و در سال 1402 در منطق سولقان واقع در شمال غرب شهر تهران که یکی از مناطق مستعد وقوع پدیده جریان واریزه ای بود انجام شد. در این پژوهش اثر پایه های کوتاه بتنی بر کاهش سرعت جریان و متوقف نمودن آن با استفاده از مدل عددی RAMMS و از طریق شبیه سازی و نحوه کنترل جریان های واریزه ای بررسی شد. سپس چیدمان مختلفی از پایه ها در محل های مختلف مسیر حرکت جریان در نظر گرفته شد و نتایج مدل سازی آنها مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت.

    یافته ها

    قرارگیری پایه ها به صورت ترکیب مثلثی با راس به سمت پایین دست، موثرترین حالت بود و نقش مهمی در کاهش اندازه حرکت، پهنه تاثیر و طول جابه جایی جریان داشت. همچنین در حالتی که این پایه ها در قسمت پایین دامنه قرار داده شدند، عملکرد بسیار مناسب تری در توقف جریان داشتند.

    نتیجه گیری

    به کارگیری پایه های قایم در مسیر جریان واریزه ای می تواند باعث کاهش چشمگیر اندازه حرکت، پهنه تاثیر و فاصله جابجایی جریان واریزه ای گردد. میزان تاثیر گروه پایه ها بر جریان، بستگی به نحوه آرایش پایه ها، ابعاد و فاصله بین آنها دارد. با استفاده از مدل عددی، می توان بهترین گزینه را انتخاب نمود.

    کلید واژگان: جریان واریزه ای, نرم افزار RAMMS, منطقه سولقان, کنترل جریان واریزه ای, مدل سازی جریان واریزه ای}
    M. Galoie, A. Motamedi*
    Aims

    Debris Flow is a natural hazard phenomenon that frequently manifests suddenly, inflicting substantial economic and human losses. To date, numerous methodologies have been proposed to manage debris flow; however, the intricate nature of the governing equations renders the analysis of debris flow an exceedingly arduous and nearly unattainable task. The principal objective of this investigation was to assess the efficacy of vertical piers in mitigating debris flow.

    Methodology

    This particular study, characterized as an empirical-computational endeavor, transpired between the months of April and August in 2023. Its focus was centered on the Solqan region, situated in the northwestern vicinity of Tehran, an area notably susceptible to debris flow. Within this study, the influence of truncated concrete piers on the reduction of flow velocity and blockage was explored and replicated through employment of the RAMMS numerical model. To accomplish this, a variety of pier arrangements were considered at different junctures along the pathway of flow, with subsequent assessment of the modeling outcomes.

    Findings

    Among all the simulated scenarios, the scenario in which the piers were organized in a triangular shape pointing downwards exhibited the most noticeable impact on the reduction of momentum, inundation area, and run-out distance. Additionally, it is worth noting that if these piers were positioned in the lower section of the hill slope, their efficacy in halting the flow would be significantly enhanced.

    Conclusion

    The utilization of vertical piers along the course of the debris flow can yield a substantial decrease in the momentum, inundation area, and run-out distance associated with the debris flow phenomenon. The influence exerted by the collective presence of piers on the flow is contingent upon the configuration of the piers, their dimensions, as well as the spacing between them. By employing numerical models the optimal scenario can be determined and implemented.

    Keywords: Debris Flow, RAMMS Software, Sulqan’s District, Debris Hazard Mitigation, Debris Flow Modeling}
  • رضا ذاکری نژاد*، عباس کهرانی، مژگان انتظاری

    از میان انواع فرسایش آبی، فرسایش خندقی را می توان مخرب ترین نوع آن قلمداد کرد که سالانه موجب ایجاد حجم عظیمی از رسوبات می شود. هدف این پژوهش شناسایی عوامل موثر بر وقوع فرسایش خندقی،پیش بینی و پهنه بندی احتمال وقوع خطر فرسایش خندقی در حوضه آبخیز خسویه در استان فارس با استفاده از مدل CART است. موقعیت خندق های شکل گرفته با استفاده از نرم افزار گوگل ارث و سیستم تعیین موقعیت جهانی (GPS) ثبت شده اند. در این پژوهش از 16 متغیر تاثیرگذار در فرسایش خندقی شامل شاخص های مربوط به توپوگرافی (ارتفاع، شیب، جهت شیب، طول شیب، قدرت جریان، عمق آبراهه، رطوبت توپوگرافی و انحنای طولی)، شاخص نرمال شده پوشش گیاهی (NDVI)، کاربری اراضی، فاصله از راه ها، فاصله از آبراهه، نقشه زمین شناسی، میزان بارش (برای دوره زمانی سی ساله 1351 الی 1381)، نوع خاک و فرسایش پذیری خاک استفاده شده است. پس از تخصیص مقادیر مربوط به شاخص های مستقل به نقاط برداشت شده از خندق ها مدل سازی جهت پهنه بندی یا پیش بینی مناطق مستعد فرسایش خندقی در منطقه موردمطالعه، در محیط نرم افزار SPM با استفاده از مدل CART انجام شد. مدل مذکور در فرایند مدل سازی از 70درصد داده ها به عنوان داده های آموزش و 30درصد داده ها به عنوان داده های آزمون استفاده کرده است. دقت مدل اجراشده بر اساس شاخص R2 (ضریب همبستگی) برابر 907/0 بوده است. درنهایت نقشه پهنه بندی خطر فرسایش خندقی در 5 کلاس؛ خطر خیلی زیاد، خطر زیاد، خطر متوسط، کم خطر و خیلی کم خطر، در محیط نرم افزار ArcGIS تهیه گردید، بر اساس این نقشه 10 درصد از مساحت منطقه موردمطالعه در کلاس خطر خیلی زیاد واقع شده است.

    کلید واژگان: فرسایش خندقی, مدل CART, نرم افزار SPM}
    Reza Zakeri Nejad *, Abbas Kahrani, Mojgan Entrzari
    Introduction

    Soil erosion in any place is affected by various factors, including natural features and human activities. Mediterranean rainfall system and high water erosion, large extent of soils and formations sensitive to erosion, poor natural vegetation in many regions of the country and uneven conditions are some of the important natural factors affecting soil erosion in Iran (Arab Khodri, 2014). So that about 125 million hectares out of 165 million hectares of the country's lands are exposed to water erosiondramatically. Therefore, the incoming blown sand is dropped close to the brink line. Gully erosion as one of type of water erosion is very severe in many areas specially in arid and semi-aird areas. Because in areas with low vegetation cover are mpre prone to the drops of rainfall with high intensity. There are many researches regarding this type of water loss that some of these researches focus on modelling and predicted the prone areas with stochastic model. Rangzen et al. (1401) in their research studied the prone areas to gully erosion using fuzzy membership function in the watershed of Mehr city, in the south of Fars province, they have determined prone areas to gully erosion using fuzzy membership function and hierarchical analysis model (AHP) in Mehr city, in the south of Fars province. The results of their investigation showed that the areas located in the center of the studied area (about 18%) are more sensitive to gullies erosion. They have used the ROC curve to validate the model, the AUC values near 85 indicate the high accuracy of the model for predicting areas prone to gully erosion in the watershed of Mehr city. In this study we have applied the CART model to predict the prone areas in Ljasouh watershed in South of Fasr province in Iran.

    Methodology

    The study area isKhasuye watershed, with an area of 136,622 hectares, is located 337 km from Shiraz city in Fars province, Zarindasht city. In terms of the geographical location of this watershed between the longitudes of 54 degrees and 9 minutes to 54 degrees and 42 minutes east and the latitudes of 28 degrees and 18 minutes to 28 degrees and 39 minutes north, it occupies the northern strip of Zarindasht city.The average annual and monthly temperatures of this basin are 21.91 and 19.09 degrees Celsius, respectively. Also, the maximum and minimum average temperature of the basin is 33.09 and 9.78 degrees Celsius, respectively, corresponding to the months of July, the average annual rainfall of Khasouye station is 221.54 mm and its average height above sea level is about 1150 meters.For the applying the CART model by using the SPM (Salford Peredectie Modeler) software in research, in first step, the locations of the gullies were recorded using the Google Earth software and Global Positioning System (GPS) in the whole study area. The second step, out of 16 influencing variables in gully erosion, including topography-related indicators (height, slope, slope direction, slope length, flow strength, stream depth, topographic wetness and longitudinal curvature), normalized vegetation cover index (NDVI), land use, distance from roads, distance from rivers, geological map, rainfall, soil type and soil erodibility have been used. After assigning the values related to independent indicators to each of gullies area, modeling has been run to predict the prone gullies areas in the study area, in the SPM software environment using the CART model. The applied model has used 70% of the data as training data and 30% of the data as test data in the modeling process.

    Results and Discussion

    One of the main factors in modeling is checking the accuracy of model results, therefore we have used different stastical index to evaulte the accuracy of our result for each traing and testing data. Table No. 1 shows the CART model accuracy evaluation indices. According to this table, the correlation coefficient or R2 for training data is equal to 0.904 and for test data is equal to 0.845. Considering that (Chain et al., 1998) have defined three values of 0.19, 0.33 and 0.67, respectively, as the criterion value for weak, medium and strong values of the evaluation of the structural parts of the model by means of the R2 index (correlation coefficient). Therfore we can conclude that the model it has high accuracy in predicting the points prone to gully areas height parameter with R square of 0.915 and Std error of estimate of 0.133.In terms of the relative importance of each of the independent variables participating in the CART modeling process, respectively, the variables of height, amount of precipitation, distance from streams and land use have the highest value with values above 50%, and the variables of slope direction, Longitudinal curvature, topographic wettness have the lowest values.

    Conclusion

    As we have seen in the predicted map of gully erosion the most of these features occur in the flat area with low slope in the Khasouye basin. Due to rainfall or irregular irrigation of the adjacent lands, the water flows on the surface and finally reaches these flat areas. Usually, the amount of precipitation in high areas is higher than in flat and low-altitude areas, but all the precipitation that occurs in high areas is due to other factors such as topography, slope and the direction of the slope of the area, especially in the Khasouye watershed, where the high areas lack suitable vegetation. By applying the results obtained from the implemented statistical model and the geological maps of the Khosouye watershed, it was determined that the most gullies occurred in the places consisting of the Quaternary formation. Quaternary formation includes alluvial and sedimentary deposits and loess. Due to the high solubility of this type of formation, its sensitivity to water erosion and especially to ditch erosion is very high.

    Keywords: Gully Erosion, CART model, SPM software}
  • Neda Torabi Farsani *, Marzieh Hekmat, Seyedeh Meral Taaghob
    Purpose

    This study follows three major purposes including recognizing the input variables in the development of tea tourism in rural areas of Gilan (Guilan) Province, Iran, and identifying the less strategic and dependent variables for promoting tea tourism in the case study of rural areas of Gilan Province.

    Design/methodology/approach

    Structural analysis in a foresight study was used in this paper. Firstly, the researchers recognized the key variables for promoting tea tourism in destinations with the help of the systematic literature review method and the extraction variables were categorized in two codes as tourism facilities and services with tea theme, and policy-making for promoting tea tourism.

    Finding

    The results of structural analysis through Micmac software identified the following variables as influence variables for tea tourism facilities and services: being familiar with tea processing, establishing tea tasting centres, holding tea ceremonies and tea cultural events, and being familiar with tea cuisine. Furthermore, visiting tea gardens and sightseeing, presenting tea culture performances, developing tea museums, creating an innovative tea package, establishing a tea shop/tea auction centre, participating in picking tea leaves, and establishing tea restaurants, hotels and accommodations are known as dependent variables. Moreover, according to the direct influence graph adding tea tourism to tour packages and visiting tea factories were recognized as less strategic variables for development of tea tourism facilities and services. In addition, organizing top to bottom level training and a comprehensive policy framework for tea tourism have the most impact on the system and were identified as input variables for policy-making for promoting tea tourism.

    Practical implications

    Analysing data through Micmac software illustrated that local participation, preserving the environment ecosystem, developing network activities and training tour guides for tea tourism are dependent variables for policy-making for promoting tea tourism. Lastly, accessibility and marketing are excluded as independent variables for policy-making for promoting tea tourism.

    Keywords: MicMac Software, Structural Analysis, Tea, Tea tourism, Gilan}
  • مریم دانشور*

    با افزایش جمعیت و تعداد شهرها در قرن حاضر خصوصا در کشورهای در حال توسعه، کیفیت زندگی در شهرها به موضوع مهمی در برنامه ریزی شهری تبدیل شده است. طرح جامع (توسعه و عمران) شهر یکی از مهم ترین اسناد توسعه شهری است که در فرایندی هزینه بر در مراجع محلی و ملی به تصویب می رسد. هدف پژوهش حاضر، شناسایی جایگاه مولفه های کیفیت زندگی در فرایند تصویب طرح جامع سوم شهر مشهد مشهد است. فرایند تصویب این طرح در سال 1389 آغاز شده و در نهایت طرح در سال 1396 ابلاغ شده است. به منظور مطالعه اسناد تصویب طرح از روش تحلیل محتوا استفاده شده است. ابزار جمع آوری داده ها اسنادی و ابزار تحلیل داده به صورت تحلیل محتوای قیاسی در نرم افزار مکس کیودا بوده است. بر اساس مطالعات مبانی نظری مولفه های کیفیت زندگی در فرایند برنامه ریزی در دو بعد ماهوی و رویه ای شناسایی شده است. در بعد ماهوی زیرساخت های بهداشتی، درمانی، تفریحی، آموزشی، تکنولوژیکی، محیط طبیعی، اجتماعی و اقتصادی مد نظر بوده و در بعد رویه ای ملاحظات کیفی در رویکرد برنامه ریزی، ملاحظات کیفی در اسناد برنامه ریزی، ملاحظات کیفی در اجرای برنامه، سازمان برنامه ریزی و سلسله مراتب برنامه ریزی مورد توجه بوده است. در نتیجه تحلیل صورتجلسات طرح، 1034 کد شناسایی شده و با توجه به مدل مفهومی شناسایی شده در ادبیات نظری طبقه بندی شده اند. بر اساس یافته های پژوهش، 81.23% کدهای شناسایی شده رویه ای و 18.76% ماهوی بوده اند. در صورتجلسات تصویب طرح، به سازمان برنامه ریزی  بیشترین میزان توجه صورت گرفته اما به زیرساخت   تکنولوژیکی و ملاحظات کیفی در اجرای برنامه پرداخته نشده است. در مقیاس محلی (شامل صورتجلسات کمیسیون تخصصی کارگروه، کارگروه امور زیربنایی و شهرسازی و شورای برنامه ریزی استان) نسبت توجه به ایعاد ماهوی کیفیت زندگی در برنامه ریزی شهری تقریبا دو برابر مقیاس ملی (کمیته فنی شورای عالی شهرسازی و معماری و شورای عالی شهرسازی و معماری) بوده است. براساس یافته های پژوهش پیشنهاد می شود ابعاد ماهوی کیفیت زندگی در فرایند تصویب طرح های توسعه شهری، خصوصا در مقیاس ملی مورد توجه ویژه مسیولان امر قرار گیرد.

    کلید واژگان: طرح توسعه و عمران (جامع) شهر, فرایند تصویب, کیفیت زندگی, تحلیل محتوا, نرم افزار مکس کیودا}
    Maryam Daneshvar *

    With the increase in population and the number of cities in this century, especially in developing countries, the quality of life in cities has become an important issue in urban planning. The master plan of the city is one of the most important documents of urban development, which is approved in a costly process by local and national authorities. The current research seeks to identify the components of quality of life in the process of approving the third comprehensive plan for Mashhad City The process of approving this plan started in 2018 and finally it was announced in 2018. In order to study the plan approval documents, the content analysis method has been used. The data collection tool was documentary and the data analysis tool was in the form of inductive content analysis in MaxQda software. Based on the literature review, the quality of life components in the planning process has been classified into substantive and procedural dimensions. The Substantive dimension includes health, recreational, educational, technological infrastructures, natural environment, social environment, and economic environment are considered, and the procedural dimension includes qualitative considerations in planning approach, qualitative considerations in planning documents, qualitative considerations in plan implementation, planning organization, and urban plans hierarchy. As a result of the analysis of the project minutes, 1034 codes were identified and classified according to the conceptual model. According to the research findings, 81.23% of the identified codes were procedural and 18.76% were substantive. In the approval documents, the most attention was paid to the planning organization, but the technological infrastructure and quality of implementation were not addressed. At the local scale, the ratio of paying attention to the quality of life in urban planning has been almost double that of the national scale. Based on the findings of the research, it is suggested that the substantive aspects of the quality of life in the process of approving urban development plans, especially on a national scale, should be given special attention by the authorities.

    Keywords: master plan, approval process, Quality of Life, Content Analysis, Maxqda software}
  • مصطفی محمدی ده چشمه*، سهراب قائدی، فرشته شنبه پور

    یکی از نگرانی های جامعه انسانی درباره تغییراتی است که در اثر گرمایش زمین موجب تغییر در پارامترهای اقلیمی می شود. با توجه به این مهم که تغییرات اقلیمی بر همه بخش ها اثر می گذارد، بررسی پیامدهای حاصل از این تغییرات نیازمند بررسی همه جانبه تمام بخش ها و عوامل موثر با یک رویکرد سیستمی است. هدف پژوهش حاضر شناسایی پیامدهای ناشی از تغییرات اقلیمی در شهر اهواز می باشد. در این راستا ابتدا روند تغییرات پارامترهای اقلیمی تحلیل شده، سپس با استفاده از رویکرد پویایی سیستم به مدل سازی پیامدهای ساختاری تغییرات اقلیمی در شهر اهواز پرداخته شد. داده های پژوهش شامل آمار دما، بارش، رطوبت نسبی، سرعت باد برای یک دوره 30 ساله (فصلی و سالانه)، ایستگاه سینوپتیک اهواز از سازمان هواشناسی کشور تهیه و با استفاده از آزمون آماری من-کندال مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. در این پژوهش که مبتنی بر رویکرد سیستمی است، فاکتورهای اثرگذار و اثرپذیر دخیل در موضوع و ارتباطات بین آن ها از طریق حلقه های علی و معلولی در نرم افزار Vensim مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. یافته های پژوهش نشان می دهد که طی روند 30 سال (1399-1370) تغییرات اقلیمی بر شهر اهواز در وجه افزایش دما و کاهش بارش، افزایش رطوبت نسبی و کاهش سرعت باد خود را نشان داده است. نتایج حاصل از مدل سازی کیفی و بررسی رابطه علی و معلولی نشان داد که تغییرات اقلیمی در شهر اهواز اثرات مستقیمی بر بخش های مختلف منابع آبی، تولیدات کشاورزی، مصرف انرژی داشته و متغیرهای (کاهش ذخایر آب در بالادست، امواج گرمای شدید) مهم ترین نقاط اهرمی مدل می باشند. همچنین نتایج گویای این واقعیت است که تغییرات اقلیمی در بعد زیست محیطی، پیامدهای شدیدتری در ابعاد اقتصادی، اجتماعی و سیاسی را به دنبال دارد. پیامدهای مختلف دارای تعاملات پیچیده ای با یکدیگر هستند به نحوی که ابعاد مختلف اقتصادی، اجتماعی، زیست محیطی و سیاسی را تحت تاثیر قرار داده و در نهایت اثرات یکدیگر را بر روی کاهش کیفیت زندگی و افزایش مهاجرت های اقلیمی تشدید می نمایند.

    کلید واژگان: تغییرات اقلیمی, آزمون من کندال, پویایی سیستم, نرم افزار ونسیم, شهر اهواز}
    Mostafa Mohamadi Dehcheshme *, Sohrab Ghaedi, Fereshteh Shanbehpoor
    Introduction

    Climate change is the greatest threat to humanity, because it is the main factor in increasing the frequency and severity of atmospheric events such as droughts, floods, heat waves, etc. that are experienced today. Climate change can cause a wide range of environmental problems, including severe drought and water scarcity, crop loss, and increased socioeconomic consequences. One way to identify climate change is to evaluate climate and temperature indicators. Based on statistical tests and time series of occurrence of these parameters in the long run, the status of change and its trend can be identified. Given the importance of the impact of climate change on all sectors, the study of the consequences of these changes requires the study of all sectors and effective factors with a systemic approach. One of the concerns of human society is the changes that have caused climate change due to global warming. In this regard, given the importance of climate change on all sectors, the study of the consequences of these changes requires the study of all sectors and factors with a systemic approach. Considering the importance of climate change and its effects, this study seeks to answer the following questions by considering important climatic parameters and vulnerable urban dimensions (economic, social, political, environmental):1- The trend of climate change changes (Temperature and rainfall, humidity, wind speed) what is it like in Ahvaz?2- What is the causal relationship between the causes of climate change and vulnerable sectors in the city of Ahvaz? 3- What are the effects and consequences of climate change on the city of Ahvaz?

    Materials & Methods

    The research methodology is based on statistical tests and qualitative modeling with a systemic approach. The present study analyzes the trend of changes in climatic parameters including temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and wind speed for a period of 30 years (1991-2020) in Ahvaz using the statistical Mann-Kendall Test was examined. Then, using the science of system dynamics, the causal relationships between variables and structural modeling of the consequences of climate change in Vensim software are investigated. The main stage of using the system dynamics approach is to try to understand and identify the feedback loops of the system under study, for which purpose diagrams of causal loops are drawn. In this study, inputs are the factors that shape climate change are factors that affect the city system. System outputs will be the consequences of climate change.

    Results & Discussion

    Based on the results of the analysis of the trend of climatic parameters, the city of Ahvaz in the study period has faced an increase in temperature, increase in relative humidity, decrease in wind speed, and decrease in rainfall. During the 30-year trend (1991-2020), the average rainfall has been (226) mm, each year (1.32) mm, has decreased and followed a downward trend. The average temperature has been (25.38) degrees Celsius, it has increased every year (by 0.051) degrees, which shows an increasing trend over 30 years. Based on the results, the average relative humidity was (41.1), which increased every year (0.007). Also, according to the results, the average wind speed is (2.65 m/s) and has decreased by about (0.018) every year. Therefore, the wind speed shows a decreasing trend over 30 years. Given that climate change refers to the spatial-temporal changes in the long-term average of climatic elements, the results of this study clearly showed that climatic parameters (temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed) in the study area have undergone fundamental changes. The consequences of climate change on all economic, social, political, and environmental aspects were evaluated. The results of qualitative modeling and causal relationship showed that climate change in Ahwaz has a direct impact on different sectors of water resources, agricultural production, and energy consumption. Variables of (reduction of water reserves upstream, extreme heat waves) are the most important leverage points of the model. Different outcomes have complex interactions with each other in such a way that they affect different economic, social, environmental, and political dimensions and ultimately intensify each other's effects on reducing the quality of life and increasing climate migration.

    Conclusion

    As a result, climate change has consequences such as increasing unemployment, reducing the quality of life, reducing urban resilience, and ultimately increasing climate migration in the city of Ahvaz, and the urban environment is not equipped to adapt to climate change.

    Keywords: Climate change, Mann Kendall Test, system dynamics, Vensim Software, Ahvaz}
  • نسیبه حسینی، حسن افراخته*، فرهاد عزیزپور
    با توجه به تغییرات گسترده کاربری اراضی و ضرورت آگاهی مدیران و برنامه ریزان از چگونگی تحولات حادث شده برای سیاست گذاری و چاره اندیشی جهت رفع معضلات موجود، آشکارسازی تغییرات کاربری زمین، ضروری به نظر می رسد. بنابرای،  نقشه کاربری اراضی یکی از الزامات هرگونه برنامه ریزی توسعه ملی و منطقه ای است که مدیران، برنامه ریزان و کارشناسان را قادر می سازد با شناسایی وضع موجود و مقایسه قابلیت ها و پتانسیل ها، در زمینه حل معضلات و رفع نیازهای حال و آینده اقدامات لازم را طراحی و اجرا نمایند. امروزه به دلیل هزینه بسیار زیاد تهیه نقشه های کاربری ارضی با روش های سنتی و دستی، سنجش از دور می تواند با دقت و سرعت بیشتری به مهندسان در تهیه نقشه کاربری ارضی و در مرحله بعد، ارزیابی تغییرات در منطقه کمک کند. هدف از این پژوهش تهیه نقشه های کاربری اراضی دهستان زبرخان و همچنین پایش تغییرات کاربری اراضی این ناحیه در دوره زمانی 1996 تا 2019 میلادی با استفاده از تصاویر ماهواره ای لندست 5 و 8  مربوط به سنجنده های TM و OLI است. بر اساس بررسی های به عمل آمده مشخص شد که کاربری های اراضی زراعی، اراضی ساخته شده و مرتع طی این دوره روند افزایشی داشته است، در حالی که اراضی بایر و باغ روند کاهشی داشته اند. همچنین نتایج گویای آن است که اراضی ساخته شده شامل کاربری های شهری ، روستایی، گردشگری (پارک حیات وحش، اقامتگاه بومگردی)، صنعتی، کارگاهی، تاسیسات، ارتباطی (راه های منطقه ای و محلی)، نظامی، معدن و منابع ذخیره آب برای کشاورزی بوده است که بیشترین افزایش را کاربری های شهری و روستایی با 43/461 هکتار، معادل 01/54 درصد  از کل کاربری ها را در سطح محدوده به خود اختصاص داده است.
    کلید واژگان: تغییرات کاربری اراضی, تصاویر ماهواره ای, نرم افزار ENVI, دهستان زبرخان}
    Nasibeh Hosseini, Hasan Afrakhteh *, Farhad Azizpour
    Detecting land use changes is essential for managers and planners because land use has changed widely. Being aware of these changes can help the policy-making process and solving existing problems. Therefore, preparing a land use map is one of the requirements of any development planning at the national and regional level. Such maps enable managers, planners and experts to design and implement the necessary measures in the field of solving problems and meeting present and future needs by identifying the current situation and comparing capabilities and potentials. Nowadays, due to the high cost of preparing land use maps with traditional and manual methods, remote sensing can help engineers with more accuracy and speed in preparing land use maps and evaluating changes in the region. The aim of the current research is to prepare land use maps of Zabarkhan district and monitoring land use changes in this area from 1996 to 2019 using Landsat 5 and 8 satellite images related to TM and OLI sensors. According to the findings, the uses of agricultural lands, built lands and pastures have increased during this period, while barren lands and gardens have decreased. Built-up lands include urban, rural, tourism (wildlife park, ecotourism residence), industrial, workshop, facilities, communication (regional and local roads), military, mining and water storage resources for agriculture. The highest rate of increase is related to urban and rural uses with 461.43 hectares, equivalent to 54.01% of all uses.
    Keywords: Land Use Changes, Satellite Images, ENVI Software, Zebarkhan Rural District}
  • سجاد نجفی، کیومرث یزدان پناه درو*، زهرا پیشگاهی فرد، مرجان بدیعی ازنداهی

    سیاست و مولفه های وابسته به آن جایگاه و نقش برجسته ای در روابط میان کشورها و سنجش قدرت ملی آن ها دارد، در این میان قدرت دفاعی کشورها نیز بی تاثیر از سیاست های حاکم بر کشورها و عوامل و متغیرهای سیاسی نبوده و افزایش قدرت نظامی-دفاعی کشورها رابطه مستقیم و معناداری با عوامل سیاسی حاکم و تصمیم گیری های سیاسی دارد. در همین راستا در مقاله پیش رو در راستای پاسخ به این سوال که از میان عوامل سیاسی تاثیرگذار بر قدرت دفاعی ایران، کلیدی ترین و تاثیرگذارترین عوامل کدامند؟ با هدف شناسایی عوامل سیاسی کلیدی موثر بر قدرت دفاعی ایران، با مبنا قرار دادن نظریه بازدارندگی به عنوان چارچوب نظری تحقیق و تلفیقی از روش های توصیفی-تحلیلی و پیمایشی (استفاده از نظر 50 نفر از خبرگان و تکمیل پرسشنامه)، ضمن شناسایی نیروهای پیشران سیاسی تاثیرگذار بر قدرت دفاعی ایران با استفاده از نرم افزار آینده پژوهی میک مک و بکارگیری روش تحلیل ماتریس متقاطع، عوامل سیاسی کلیدی تاثیرگذار بر قدرت دفاعی ایران مشخص و سناریوهای مربوط تدوین گردیده است. بر طبق یافته ها و نتایج عوامل سیاسی کلیدی بدست آمده می بایست در تدوین راهبردهای نظامی و دفاعی کشور لحاظ و مورد توجه قرار گیرند.

    کلید واژگان: قدرت, قدرت دفاعی, دیپلماسی دفاعی, آینده پژوهی, نرم افزار میک مک}
    Sajad Najafi, Kiyumars Yazdanpanah Dero *, Zahra Pishgahifard, Marjan Badiee Azendahi
    Introduction

    Politics and its related components have a prominent role in relations between countries and their national power. Meanwhile, the defense power of countries is not unaffected by the governing policies of countries and political factors. Military-defense power of countries has a direct and significant relationship with the prevailing political factors and political decisions. Due to the special geopolitical situation and peripheral threats, Iran has always paid attention to increasing its power and defense capability in order to achieve sustainable security, and the governing political factors of Iran have effect on defense power.

    Methodology

    In this study, in order to explain the key political factors affecting Iran's defense power in 1410, by studying the relevant documents and previous scientific records and using the opinions of 50 experts, 97 political figures were identified. In the second step, with the formation of the expert panel, similar factors were merged and 36 factors were identified. Then, based on the opinion of experts, the values of the factors were ranked and 26 important and effective factors were determined. Finally, by using Micmac software and crossover matrix analysis method, 12 significant factors and 4 factors as key political factors affecting Iran's defense power were identified. It should be noted that the research is applied-developmental in terms of purpose and a combination of descriptive-analytical and survey methods (using the opinion of experts and a questionnaire).

    Results and Discussion

    According to the software output, 4 key factors:The wisdom of leadership and the managerial skills and ability of the country's political leadersThe country's membership and influence in regional and global alliances and treaties, and the power and credibility of regional and supra-regional allies, and the number of strategic partners (powerful countries) of Iran.Changes in regional powers and the emergence of new poles of power in the region and the establishment of a multipolar system in the world and the decline of the United States from the position of a superior hegemon and the emergence of China as a new international hegemony.Continuation of Iran's strongly anti-American foreign policy and areas of dispute (nuclear, human rights, terrorism, Israel) with the international community and the status of Iran's nuclear case in the Security Council and the United Nations.They were identified as the most important and key political factors affecting Iran's defense power. Also, four scenarios: development, obstruction, isolation and political risk were identified, which is the ideal and desirable scenario for the country in order to gain superior defense power, to be in a state of political development.

    Conclusion

    According to the theory of deterrence, as well as the teachings of the Qur'an and Islam, which emphasize the need for defense readiness against enemies, the need to strengthen the country's military capability to create defensive deterrence and ensure the interests and national security of the country is essential. Be. In this regard, according to the results of the research of four key political forces influencing the country's defense power should be used by military officials and commanders in formulating military strategies to create deterrence and achieve lasting security in the country.

    Keywords: Power, defense power, Defense Diplomacy, Future Studies, MICMAC software}
  • مریم فرخی، شهاب کریمی نیا

    در گذشته شهرها از نظر توجه به محدودیت های اکولوژیک نمونه های خوبی از طراحی شهری انرژی کارا بوده اند. با نگاهی به شهرهای سنتی و مقایسه آن ها با شهرسازی مدرن امروزی، شاهد پیامدهای نامطلوب زیست محیطی در مقیاس طراحی واحدهای ساختمانی و نیز ساختار فضایی شهرها می باشیم. لذا به نظر می رسد ضروریست ضمن شناسایی عوامل موثر در در طراحی شهرهای پایدار سنتی، با بهره گیری از نرم افزارهای شبیه سازی بتوان پیش از اجرای طرح و یا در مرحله ارایه گزینه های پیشنهادی، به فرم های بهینه در اجزا (ساختمان های منفرد) و ترکیب های شهری (بافت های شهری) دست یافت. پژوهش پیش رو با ترکیب روش های توصیفی - تحلیلی، مطالعات گونه شناختی، ترسیم و شبیه سازی مدل ها، به دنبال تحلیل مصرف انرژی و آسایش حرارتی در گونه های مختلف فرم ساختمانی، بلوک های شهری و ساختار فضایی شهر اصفهان در 4 دوره تاریخی می باشد. لذا با بهره گیری از نرم افزارهای شبیه سازی انرژی (دیزاین بیلدر) و آسایش حرارتی (انوی- مت) و تحلیل چیدمان فضایی ارتباط مابین متغیرهای مستقل (مشخصه های کالبدی و فضایی بافت شهری) و متغیرهای وابسته، میزان مصرف انرژی (جهت تامین گرمایش، سرمایش و روشنایی) و آسایش حرارتی، در هر یک از سناریوهای پیشنهادی، مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. بر اساس نتایج، می توان دستورالعمل طراحی اقلیمی بافت های شهری را در قالب سه مولفه؛ نظام و الگوی قطعه بندی و تفکیک زمین شهری، شکل و مشخصات توده/فضا در بافت های شهری و الگوی شبکه معابر بافت، تنظیم و عملیاتی ساخت. فرم های غالب دوره قاجار به لحاظ عملکرد انرژی و نیز همسازی با اقلیم، فرم های پایدارتری نسبت به سایر دوره های تاریخی می باشند. همچنین ساختارهای فضایی با بیشترین میزان همپیوندی و اتصال فضایی می توانند درصد بالاتری از شرایط آسایش حرارتی را در فضاهای باز شهری ایجاد نمایند.

    کلید واژگان: طراحی شهری انرژی کارا, فرم شهری پایدار, آسایش حرارتی, نرم افزارهای شبیه سازی و تحلیل انرژی}
    Maryam Farokhi, Shahab Kariminia

    In the past, cities have been good examples of energy-efficient urban design in terms of ecological constraints. Looking at traditional cities and comparing them with modern urban planning, we see adverse environmental consequences in the scale of design of building units and the spatial structure of cities. Therefore, it seems necessary to identify the effective factors in the design of traditional sustainable cities, using simulation software before the project or in the proposed options, to the optimal forms in the components (individual buildings) and Urban combinations (urban textures) was achieved. The present research combines descriptive-analytical methods, typological studies, drawing and simulation of models, following the analysis of energy consumption and thermal comfort in different types of building forms, urban blocks, and spatial structure of Isfahan in 4 historical periods. Therefore, by using energy simulation software (Design Builder) and thermal comfort (Envi-Met) and analysis of Space Syntax, the relationship between independent variables (physical and spatial characteristics of the urban fabric) and dependent variables, the amount of energy consumption (to provide heating, cooling, and lighting) and thermal comfort, in each of the proposed scenarios, has been investigated. Based on the results, it is possible to formulate guidelines for the climatic design of urban structures in the form of three components; The system and pattern of segmentation and segregation of urban land, the shape and characteristics of the mass/space in urban contexts and the pattern of the network of texture passages, regulation, and operational construction. The dominant forms of the Qajar period are more sustainable forms than other historical periods in terms of energy performance and adaptation to the climate. Also, spatial structures with the highest degree of spatial connection can provide a higher percentage of thermal comfort conditions in urban open spaces.

    Keywords: Energy efficient urban design, sustainable urban form, thermal comfort, energy simulation, analysis software}
  • فیروزه کریمی، فرزین چاره جو*، کسری کتاب اللهی

    شادمانی و سلامت روانی از مهم ترین بخش های سلامت عمومی به شمار می رود. مطالعات مختلفی نشان دهنده آن بود که کیفیت زندگی شهروندان ارتباط مستقیمی با محیط سکونت دارد. در این میان، فضای عمومی شهرها به عنوان بستری که زمینه را برای حیات جمعی فراهم کرده و تقویت کننده یا تضعیف کننده ی سلامت شهروندان خود است، اهمیت ویژه ای دارد. پژوهش حاضر به روش توصیفی-تحلیلی و در شهر سنندج انجام شده است. اطلاعات لازم به دو روش کتابخانه ای و میدانی جمع آوری شده است. اهداف اصلی این پژوهش: 1.شناسایی کیفیت های محیطی برانگیزاننده شادمانی و متضمن آرامش روانی شهروندان؛ 2. بررسی رابطه بین ویژگی های کالبدی/فضایی و اجتماعی دو سکونتگاه (در اینجا محله)، با کیفیت های موردانتظار است. کیفیت های طراحی شهری شامل کیفیت های عملکردی، حمل ونقل، زیست بوم، ادراکی، بصری، محیط اجتماعی و زمان همگی به عنوان عوامل اثرگذار بر سلامت روان از مطالعات اسنادی استخراج شد؛ همچنین در راستای تحقق هدف پژوهش، آزمون های آماری مختلفی انتخاب شده است. به طوری که برای آزمودن نرمال بودن متغیرهای پژوهش از آزمون کولموگروف اسمیرنوف؛ آزمودن نتایج مربوط به سطوح مختلف سلامت روانی شهروندان و تفاوت در کیفیات طراحی شهری در محله ها از واریانس یک طرفه؛ بررسی اثرگذاری کیفیات طراحی شهری بر سطح سلامت روانی شهروندان و از تحلیل رگرسیون، برای بررسی سطوح مختلف هرکدام از کیفیات طراحی شهری در محله های یادشده استفاده شده است. در پایان نیز از نرم افزارSmart PLS برای تدوین مدل سازی معادلات ساختاری استفاده شده است. نتایج به دست آمده نشان دهنده آن است که کیفیات ادراکی، بصری، محیط اجتماعی و عملکردی به ترتیب با آماره های برابر 37/7، 78/6، 13/6 و 67/4، بیشترین اثرگذاری را بر سلامت شهروندان دارد.

    کلید واژگان: سلامت روانی, شادمانی, Smart PLS, کیفیت های طراحی شهری, سنندج}
    Firoozeh Karimi, Farzin Charehjoo *, Kasra Ketabollahi
    Introduction

    From the beginning of human civilization, man has always been in search of happiness. Aristotle believed that "happiness is the ultimate meaning and purpose of life" (Chen & Zhang, 2018). Happiness and mental health are the most important factors of public health. Assessing the extent to which our place of residence can affect our emotions and overall qualities of life has always been one of the most important theoretical and empirical topics in the various professions of human geography, urban and regional studies, urban design and planning, and assurance. Citizens’ high quality of life in all its objective and mental dimensions is one of the most important concerns of managers and urban planners around the world (Moore et al., 2018 and Ballas, 2013).Designing and planning to improve people’s health in many scientific circles, especially since the early 90s in the 20th century, have been already discussed. However, the researchers’ main problem in this field has been addressing people’’s physical health and neglecting the issue of the impacts of urban spaces on citizens’ mental, emotional, and spiritual health conditions (Pfeiffer & Cloutier, 2016).In general, the spaces of urban neighborhoods should be in a way that they provide citizens with easy access to interactive and green and public environments ensure their healthy physical and mental lives, and make a positive feeling in them. It is clear that having positive face-to-face experiences in the neighborhood can affect the level of citizen happiness (Han et al., 2019).Given that mental health requires extensive studies to determine a specific framework of factors affecting it, this research was innovative in this regard. Also, considering that the outputs of theoretical studies are evaluated in the context of urban spaces, they can be a suitable source for implementation of practical measures and fill the gap between thought and action. Therefore, doing this research was necessary.According to the definitions provided by the World Health Organization, an individual’s happiness and mental health is affected not only by intrapersonal characteristics, but also by social and economic factors related to some other environmental components, such as safety. Existence of environments for leisure time, existence of green spaces and vegetation, vitality of the environment, etc. have all been considered as factors that are related to individuals’ levels of happiness and mental health (Hoisington et al., 2019; Wu et al., 2014;Firdaus, 2017;and Melis et al., 2015).Various studies have shown that citizens’ quality of life is directly related to their living environments. In the meantime, the public spaces of cities are of special importance as a platform that provides the ground for collective life and can strengthen or weaken citizens’ health. In general, the artificial environment is one of the most influential determinants and prerequisites for citizens’ health. In many studies, its impact on various aspects of health has been examined. Among them, citizens' mental health and happiness are the most influential dimensions that are strongly influenced by urban structures and environments (Melis et al., 2015).According to Choe (2012), "Of the main concerns of urban designers and planners in different cities, especially in the old and worn-out contexts of cities, are reduction of citizens’ quality of life and their loss of vitality, as well as reduction of the physical quality of the environment." "It is a concept that seems almost difficult to define. This concept is mainly definedbylife satisfaction, mental comfort, and enjoyment for well-being and security (Choe, 2012).Urban neighborhoods and streets have a special role in attracting people to the public space of cities and are very important for the city vitality and its inhabitants. This is while the growing trend of using vehicles has reduced the social role of cities and this issue has led to less human interactions in cities and paying more attention to cars and the need for motor vehicles (Horijani, 1397).Therefore, in the profession of urban design and planning, creating a context to provide spaces that can improve the residents’ positive feelings and emotions and reduce their negative emotions is necessary and undeniable. Accordingly, the effort to create a happy atmosphere for citizens in the society that can provide them with a peace of mind. This should be considered as one of the main tasks of social institutions, such as municipalities, city councils, and urban management systems in general. Due to the importance of the issue and lack of a comprehensive and useful research on it in Sanandaj, this study was done to make a comparison between two different neighborhoods with worn and new structures and different social contexts in Sanandaj City.

    Methodology

    The present study was based on a descriptive-analytical method in terms of purpose and data collection was done in the two ways of library and field studies. To achieve the research objective, which was investigation of environmental qualities affecting the citizens’ happiness in Sanandaj City, the necessary framework was identified and extracted by reviewing the existing sources and documents and then a questionnaire was used to collect the background data.To answer the research questions, Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests, one-way analysis of variance, and regression analysis were utilized, as well as SmartPLS software. To test normality of the research variables Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was applied. The results related to the citizens’ different levels of vitality, mental health, and happiness and also differences in urban design qualities in both neighborhoods were used via one-way variance to evaluate the effectiveness of qualities. Urban design was used on the level of the citizens’ mental health.Also, using regression analysis, different levels of each of the urban design qualities in the mentioned neighborhoods were studied through statistical calculations. Finally, SmartPLS software was employed to develop structural equation modeling and provide suggestions.Considering the importance of looking at cities for citizens' happiness and joy, the main purpose of this study was to explain the framework of urban design qualities that affected the citizens’ mental health and happiness.

    Discussion

    From the structural equation model of the research, it could be stated that the research hypotheses were confirmed with 95% confidence and the quality components of urban design had a positive and significant effect on the citizens’ mental health. Also, based on beta coefficients, it was clear that the components of perceptual and transportation qualities had the most and least impacts on the citizens’ mental health and happiness, respectively.In general, evaluations of the components of functional quality, transportation quality, ecosystem quality, perceptual quality, visual quality, social environment quality, and total time quality (coefficient of determination: 97%) related to health changes determined the citizens’ mental health and the rest of changes in the citizens’ mental health were related to other factors that were outside the scope of this study. Table 13: Structural equation results (source: authors) mental health Ecosystem Quality 0.31 3.84 Confirmation Positive mental health Perceptional Quality 0.77 7.37 Confirmation Positive mental health   Visual Quality 0.53 6.78  Confirmation Positive mental health Social Environment Quality 0.50 6.13 Confirmation Positive mental health = Time Quality 0.41 4.15 Confirmation Positive mental health  Urban Design Quality 0.94 240.52 Confirmation Positive |t|>1.96 significant at P<0.05, |t|>2.58 significant at P<0.01

    Conclusion

    The results of the statistical analyses showed that based on what was asked in the first question, the residents of the two different neighborhoods of Sanandaj located in the two different types of traditional and developed contexts enjoyed life on different levels of satisfaction , mental health, vitality, and happiness, which could be attributed to the differences in the levels of some environmental qualities, such as environmental sensory richness, attractive visual qualities, and existence of different spaces for them to stop and spend time. Leisure time could create a ground for improving the residents’ social interactions in the two neighborhoods.The results obtained in this study are consistent with the results of the studies of Zuniga-Teran et al. (2017), Pfeiffer et al. (2016), Cao (2016), Taheri and Taheri (1398), and Abrun et al. (1397).Regarding the impacts of environmental qualities on the citizens’ levels of mental health, the studied qualities, i.e., functional quality, quality of transportation, quality of ecosystem, perceptual quality, visual quality, quality of social environment, and quality of time, could be mentioned as the factors affecting their health.In addition, it could be stated that the existence of such qualities could be the definitive environmental predictors that ensured part of the citizens’ mental health that was affected by the environment and urban design qualities. These results are consistent with the results obtained by Han et al. (Impacts of Access to Parks and Green Spaces on Mental Health) (Han & Kim, 2019), Wales (Impacts of Sense of Safety and Security on Mental health and Well-being) (Wills, 2014), Zhang et al. (The Effects of Different Environmental Qualities on Mental Health and Happiness) (Chen et al., 2018), Griff et al. (The Effects of the Physical and Social Structures of the Environment on the Health and Mental Stress of Citizens) (Greif & Dodoo, 2015), Taheri et al. (The Effect of Physical Environment on Citizens' Satisfaction with the Environment and Their Happiness) (Taheri and Taheri, 2009), and Abron et al., 1397), thus confirming their results and completing their studies.The research results emphasized the importance of urban design in the citizens’ mental health. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the citizens’ happiness based on the research approach, besides including the related courses of urban design for obtaining the master's degree at the university, the criteria of a happy city based on the results of the present research and other similar researches, as well as the related experiences gained by the relevant organizations in Iran so as to take valuable steps for achieving the goal of Masharaliyeh in the medium and long term.

    Keywords: Mental Health, SmartPLS software, Quality of Urban Design, Sanandaj}
نکته
  • نتایج بر اساس تاریخ انتشار مرتب شده‌اند.
  • کلیدواژه مورد نظر شما تنها در فیلد کلیدواژگان مقالات جستجو شده‌است. به منظور حذف نتایج غیر مرتبط، جستجو تنها در مقالات مجلاتی انجام شده که با مجله ماخذ هم موضوع هستند.
  • در صورتی که می‌خواهید جستجو را در همه موضوعات و با شرایط دیگر تکرار کنید به صفحه جستجوی پیشرفته مجلات مراجعه کنید.
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