جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « آذربایجان شرقی » در نشریات گروه « جغرافیا »

This research tries to evaluate the tourism destinations of Ardabil and East Azarbaijan provinces from the perspective of the quality of ecosystem welfare and human welfare as two basic pillars of sustainable tourism.

This review is of the type of applied studies and the analysis of information has been done in a descriptive-analytical way, and Alen Butller's tourism life cycle (TLC) model has been used for their analysisThe statistical population of this research consists of the villages of Zenuzagh, Kandavan and Ashtabin in East Azarbaijan province and the villages of Gazaj, Alvars and Onar in Ardabil province, with a total of 465 households and a population of 1876 people. The size of the sample population in this research is 176 households, which was estimated by Cochran's method. The required information has been collected by the field method and using the questionnaire tool. The selection of the host community for questioning is by systematic random method and the selection of the tourist and visitor community is simple by random method.

The results of this study show that ecosystem and human well-being in tourism destinations are often at a medium level of sustainability and still have a significant distance from the characteristics of stable and completely sustainable destinations, and the emphasis on economic results and incomes causes neglect of natural and Human tourism activities in the studied destinations.

The results of the surveys show that the index of visiting tourist destinations over time can improve the state of ecosystem well-being and human well-being in the destinations, if the village of Kandavan is in a better state of well-being in both the human and natural ecosystem due to the high number of visitors. . Naturally, secondary factors such as improving the level of social awareness and cultural exchange between the host community and the tourist community and social education can be effective in this situation, as in destinations with fewer visits and a lower position of these indicators, it shows another different situation.

Dunes are one of the most important and sensitive landforms sensitive to wind erosion. Their activity level varies depending on the intensity of various climatic and terrestrial factors. Dust caused by wind erosion in the area of dunes is one of the most important dangers and serious challenges in arid and semi-arid regions of the world, which has been aggravated by climate changes in recent years. Due to the location of IRAN in the dry and semi-arid belt, it has been exposed to numerous local and extra-local dust systems. Dust storms have been a serious crisis in the country's provinces for the past few years and have brought dangerous consequences for the residents of these provinces in terms of environment, health, and economy. The prolonged recent droughts in East Azerbaijan and the drying up of Lake Uremia have made the threat of sand and salt storms in the coastal areas of Lake Uremia possible. The purpose of this research was to introduce the dunes in the Uremia Lake basin in East Azerbaijan province, where the mobility of dunes was determined using the Lancaster index, and the level of their future activity was predicted by carrying out a sensitivity analysis.

The dunes in the Lake Uremia basin in East Azarbaijan province were identified through the literature review and field visits, and then, using Google Earth images, their area was verified and then their spatial distribution map was prepared in the ArcGIS software environment. In the present project, the sand dunes of Shush Qom located in the village of Maqsoodlou and Gildir in the political area of Harris County are reported for the first time. Here, the mobility of sand dunes in the study area is calculated based on the Lancaster index. To calculate this index, meteorological data from the last 30 years of synoptic weather stations near the studied sand dunes have been used. Blaney Kridel method was used to calculate the annual potential evapotranspiration, and its calculations were done in the R program environment separately for each meteorological station. Also, the frequency of winds with a speed higher than the erosion threshold speed (6 m/s) at a height of 10 meters from the ground is considered. After calculating the amount of sand dunes mobility, the sensitivity analysis method has been used to reveal the possible effects of climatic change elements on the mobility of sand dunes.

The results showed that the sand dunes of Qom Tepeh, located on the edge of Lake Urmia and west of Tabriz metropolis, were active in 81% of the last 30 years, and in other words, they were not active in only 19% of the statistical period. Also, the results of the Lancaster index indicate the intensification of the mobility of the sands in the Qom Tepeh dunes in recent years. This fact can be justified in the form of the prolonged of droughts and the expansion of the dry areas of the Uremia lake bed; Also, field observations indicate the instability of the surface of these dunes due to the indiscriminate extraction of sand from these hills for use in the sand brick production plant and other agricultural and industrial uses. The dominant wind direction of Shush Qom region is south-southwest and winds with intensity greater than (>6m/sec) constitute about 12% of all observed winds at the Harris synoptic station. Based on the results of the Lancaster index, the dunes of the Shush Qom region have been active in half of the studied period; Of course, the short statistical period of the Harris station (last 12 years) has prevented a detailed analysis of the past behavior of this sandy area. In both study sites, the activity of the sands was mainly limited to the top of the dunes. Despite observing a direct relationship between the Lancaster index with the frequency of winds above the threshold of erosion and evapotranspiration and an inverse relationship with precipitation, the sensitivity of the Lancaster index to the decreasing or increasing changes of climate variables is not the same in the mentioned sites.

Sand dunes are one of the famous geomorphological forms in arid and semi-arid regions of the world, and their activity has intensified with climate changes in recent years. Therefore, investigating and monitoring the behavior of this phenomenon in terms of its impact on the emergence and escalation of the dust phenomenon is an undeniable necessity to reduce the effects of environmental crises. Even though today the Lancaster index is widely used in discussions related to the monitoring of sand dune activity in different weather conditions around the world, it is necessary to mention the lack of proper spatial distribution of weather stations and the short period of statistical observation. Also, the use of data from meteorological stations that are located further away from the sandy areas, makes the accuracy and correctness of the calculations of the Lancaster index doubtful, and the results should be evaluated with field observations and other valid scientific documents. On the other hand, in addition to analyzing the sensitivity of the Lancaster index, it is necessary to use the results of different climate change scenarios and appropriate downscaling methods in revealing the climate data changes affecting the Lancaster index in predicting the future behavior of sand dunes.

Air pollution is one of the most significant challenges in today's world, particularly in developing countries. Therefore, it is necessary to monitor and control the amount of pollutants that threaten human health. In recent years, remote sensing data related to the Sentinel 5 Tropomy sensor has been considered a rich and up-to-date source of information for monitoring and investigating the temporal-spatial changes of air pollutants. In this study, the Google Earth Engine system was used to obtain Tropomi sensor products to check the amount of nitrogen dioxide pollutants in East Azerbaijan province. For this purpose, the distribution map of the NO2 was produced in four consecutive years (1397-1400). Additionally, due to the effective role of motor vehicle traffic in increasing the amount of this pollutant on the one hand and the restriction of activities and traffic of cars during the spread of the Covid-19 virus on the other hand, the changes of nitrogen dioxide in different time periods were investigated to determine the effect of restrictions on the concentration of this pollutant quantitatively. Also, in order to investigate the impact of the reopening of schools and universities after the corona pandemic, pollutant distribution maps were produced and compared for April 1400 and April 1401. The results showed that the density of NO2 in the center of the province was higher than in other cities in all time periods, and the 14-day closure in 2019 had the greatest effect in reducing the pollutant, which was about 59% in Tabriz.

Local planning of rural settlements is an inevitable issue and requires foresight and the development of appropriate development policies in this area. The present study is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of nature and data collection is descriptive-analytical and based on the nature of data is mixed and in terms of time is futuristic. The sample size of the present study consists of 30 panels of respondents. MICMAC method has been used for futurism and processing of interaction matrices. Local development plans, include "rural guide plans, rural areas reorganization plan, scattered village integration plan, improvement plan, reorganization plan and protection of valuable villages, development plan and Rural development is a plan for the sustainable development of rural systems and a program for the economic development and job creation of rural areas. Due to the importance of local development projects in the geographical space of rural settlements in East Azerbaijan province have been more or less effective, which include the scope of research. 22 influential variables and finally 7 key drivers: "Creating a single and clear management system for the villages, Local potential in planning, sectoral and local plans, stakeholder participation, resource self-sufficiency in a system, the role of middle cities in local rural development and finally the appropriate implementation model" in local planning of rural settlements were identified. "Creating a single and clear management system for the villages" is in the first place of direct and indirect impact and is of great importance.

The term development has been widely used since World War II. This phenomenon is a value, multidimensional and complex category that is the most important discussion of countries today, especially developing countries. Development is a comprehensive process of economic, social, cultural and political activities that aims to continuously improve the lives of the entire population and the fair distribution of resources is one of its main pillars. The main purpose of this article is to analyze the evolution of the demographic hierarchy system. The research is applied and the required data have been collected from the results of the last official population and housing census of the country in 2016. The results show that the western half or semi-developed space of the province includes the north-south axis from Julfa, Marand, Tabriz, Azarshahr to Malekan, which is adjacent to national and inter-regional communication networks and suitable infrastructure networks. Establishment of large industries, small and medium industrial workshops, irrigated and horticultural areas, large villages, densely populated cities, industrial livestock and commercial activities are the features of this area. The eastern half of the province, which has always been deprived due to the natural and mountainous features of the region and the impossibility of central communication with other neighboring provinces, although in some cases the potential for development in them has been more than other regions of the province. Conclusion Establishment of most of the sparsely populated and scattered villages with the dominant economy of traditional herding and animal husbandry, rainfed agriculture and the establishment of sparsely populated cities are the main features of the eastern half of the province. 

Distribution of facilities due to past unprincipled policies in industrial and service mechanisms in the growth pole of the region (Tabriz), and the trend of centralization in one or two large cities as dominant cities and spatial imbalances between regional levels are one of the important issues that have arisen due to various factors, influenced by the mechanisms governing economic, social and political structures. This anomaly and imbalance, with the increasing role of the central government and the low presence of local authorities in the economy due to the nature of its concentration and sectionalism, has increased the problems further, and in this regard, the participation of local people has decreased, and large and small cities have not been seen in an integrated whole. Lack of accurate identification of different dimensions of inequalities and disproportionate executive policies to achieve the aforementioned goals. 

This study is of the practical and theoretical type, the method of doing it is descriptive - Analytical, the type of analysis, quantitative. The collected documentation method includes reviewing the research and studies carried out on the topic and using the statistics and data required for Demographic Analysis collected from the statistics center the road and Urban Development Organization and the municipality of Tabriz.

The result was the lack of optimal distribution of facilities, welfare and wealth, the elimination of regional equality, the increase in the development gap and the loss of The main reason for this was also due to the Given that all the efforts of a balanced regional development are based on providing the best conditions and facilities for the comprehensive development of all areas, minimizing and ultimately eliminating the differences in quality of life between different areas and cities, it can be said that the importance of the present research is to attract the attention of development managers and planners to adopt policies and programs to reduce regional inequalities by understanding the different dimensions and angles of the existing situation and identifying the backward areas in the province. In this regard, it is necessary to target the development of deprived areas and cities to distribute economic, social justice in order to reduce inequality. In the meantime, Urban Development Planning and management in the form of regional and national programs plays an important role as a logical and useful strategy to raise imbalances in the region. 

The distribution of the distribution of cities by surface separation in cities also indicates that firstly, most of the provincial cities are located in the western half. Therefore, the spatial distribution of cities is not uniform in the province. Second, the province lacks a Level 2 city in the settlement system, and this is in turn considered a serious breakdown in the Space Organization of the urban settlements of the province. Thirdly, the distribution of Level 3 and 4 cities is higher in the western half of the province, and in this half, cities at levels 3 and 4 have developed with a smaller distance from each other

The present study aimed to identify the effective drivers of place identity and sense of place with a futurology approach in Kandovan's ancient village. This is an applied study based on its objective, and it is analytic and exploratory in terms of nature, with a futurology approach. Data were collected using documents and libraries. Qualitative data were gathered with the use of open questionnaires and document reviews, and quantitative data were prepared numerically by weighting Delphi questionnaires so that indicators and components in different dimensions were first collected and then provided to executive and academic elites who specialized in architecture and planning to identify the most influential factors according to their expertise. The elites were then required to score the identified factors in the framework of the cross-effects matrix using values of 0-3, according to their effectiveness or being affected. Findings based on the state of the dispersion plane of the factors indicate the system instability, with most of the variables dispersed around the diagonal axis of the plane. In addition, given the high scores of the effective drivers and those directly affected, 39 out of the 59 variables considered were eventually identified as Mic Mac output, influencing the future identity and sense of place in Kandovan village. The results show that among the 39 driving variables, originality, identity of the village, having a prominent place in architecture compared to contemporary buildings and commitment to maintaining it, a sense of beauty in the village, rooting and belonging, having a diverse combination of form and activity, simultaneous response to all social, economic and cultural needs, and reminiscence over time were the most effective and important.

Since in recent decades in Iran, rural development and improving the welfare of villagers has been one of the main goals of implementing development programs and development is closely related to entrepreneurship Therefore, by creating new employment and income opportunities, an effective role can be created in improving the economic and living conditions of the villages. Business development is one of the effective factors in rural development. Due to the fact that many tourist attractions are located in rural areas , therefore, paying attention to rural tourism can play an important role in the development of rural economy. This research is applied in terms of purpose and the results of research in other areas can be used and in terms of method of work, it is descriptive-analytical. Based on a survey of experts and specialists, 10 tourist villages were selected and In terms of 5 indicators related to entrepreneurship and rural economy developments such as: the role of tourism in economic development , inhibitory factors, promoting factors, the willingness of villagers, measuring the level of entrepreneurial motivation, entrepreneurship policies were studied.Items related to each index were scored on a 5-point Likert scale and questions related to each of the headings were set. In this research, SPSS software has been used to extract the questionnaire data and the T-test method was used to the hypotheses. The results indicate that there is a significant relationship between entrepreneurial development. More entrepreneurial activities take place in the villages that have more tourism.

 Planning the local development of rural communities is an effective technique, particularly for sustainable resource allocation, which might be the end objective of a happy future. Development planning should achieve intended goals from the perspective of all regional spatial stakeholders. Methodologies vary in response to new issues. Scenario writing of rural local planning in East Azerbaijan province was used to fill the study gap from two subject and methodological perspectives.

 The method of the present research is applied, descriptive-analytical, and mixed in terms of purpose, nature, and collection of information, respectively. Also, it is based on scenario planning. The panel consists of 30 experts and university professors in related fields. Scenario Wizard software extracted scenarios at three levels of consistent, strong, and weak probability.

  One strong scenario, 1675 weak scenarios, and 26 highly compatible scenarios were extracted. Each compatible scenario was displayed at three optimal, static, and critical probability levels.

 The scenario "encouraging local governance through popular participation" was identified as the first compatible scenario, which is positive and promising. "The lack of significant participation of people and non-governmental institutions in local planning," as the next consistent scenario, indicates the absence of stakeholders or at least the weak role of people in rural planning in the future. "Basic lack of attention to the role of intermediate cities" was identified as the third consistent scenario.

Innovation:

 Filling the research gap from the point of view of background criticism and all from the methodological aspect to provide stable scenario(s) for the future of local planning from the point of view of spatial stakeholders.

Electoral geography is the knowledge that deals with the differences and similarities of electoral patterns in different geographical areas at the national level and establishes a relationship between these patterns and other social and economic structures. Despite the comprehensiveness of the geography of elections and the diversity of its subjects, two important issues in the geography of elections, especially parliamentary elections, are the proportionality in the distribution of parliamentary seats and the manipulation of the boundaries of constituencies. Takhsim examines justice in the geographical space of elections and examines whether the proportion of the population is commensurate with the number of seats; And Jerry Mandering is an electoral geography that manipulates and shifts electoral boundaries; And examines how changes in constituency boundaries lead to the victory of an individual or group in an election. Review; Proportion sharing; And; Jerry Mandering; It is one of the researchable cases that was not discussed in Iran before and after the revolution. East Azarbaijan province is a province that, both when it formed a province with Ardabil province and after it, has a great variety of topics in the geography of elections, including study; malapportionment; And; Jerry Mandering; Enjoys. This article is based on a comprehensive study of two categories; malapportionment; And; Jerry Mandering; It is in the eleven periods of East Azerbaijan and in this article only the above two issues in this province have been dealt with. The research data was done by library and analytical methods using Spss and Gis software. What was obtained from the results of the research was that in the study of the proportionality of the division, it was observed that in the constituencies of East Azerbaijan province, there is less spatial justice in terms of population and number of seats. Deviation from the constituency population criterion is calculated relative to the national average of 157692 people; The sum of its variance is equal to 18.42 and its average variance is equal to 1.4 percent. Jerry Mandering's investigation has manipulated the boundaries of some constituencies.

Heat waves are among the most dangerous weather threats related to global warming and climate change. Two databases were used to predict the spatial changes in the intensity of heat waves in East Azarbaijan province. The daily data of the maximum temperature in 5 synoptic stations of the province inlcuding Tabriz, Maragheh, Jolfa, Ahar and Mianeh for the time period from 1981 to 2021 AD as the period of historical-base data were used. The output of the selected CanESM model under the dual economic-social scenario SSP1 is the result of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in the future period from 2022 to 2065. The validation of the data of the basic period with the future period was done with standard measures and with the step-by-step regression technique, the intensity of heat waves in the province was explained. The results indicate that the intensity of heat waves will increase until 2065 in all the investigated stations and it will cover a large area of ​​the province. So, in the next half of the century, the intensity of heat waves in Tabriz will be 1.3 °C, in Maragheh will be 1 °C, in Julfa will be 0.7 °C, in Ahar will be 1 °C and in Mianeh it will be 1.4 °C. Moreover, with the warming of the earth's air due to the impact of global climate changes, smaller heat waves join together and will create more intense, bigger, and lasting heat waves. The results showed that with the decrease in latitude in this province and the proximity to low-lying and low-altitude areas, the frequency and intensity of heat waves will also increase.

The cultural rituals of any society are the birth certificates of that society’s culture, history, religion, and ethics. These rites and rituals are an important factor in fostering cohesion and unity among the people of a society who gather together in various ceremonies. Mourning ceremonies and rituals vary in different provinces, cities, and villages across the country, particularly during the first decade of Muharram. Iran is considered one of the inheritors of world culture due to its diverse and rich cultural rituals. The purpose of this research is to do a comparative and documented study of Muharram rituals in these two provinces so that by revealing the manifestations of cultural rituals and their differences and similarities, we can reach the deep and rich layers of the culture of these two provinces. This research intends to investigate the differences and similarities between the rituals of the first decade of Muharram and their cultural differences in the two provinces of East Azarbaijan and Khuzestan, using a descriptive-comparative study method. These two provinces have a deep cultural and religious background and an ancient civilization. The results of this research show that despite the great similarity in the performance of Muharram rituals in the two provinces in question, the diversity of mourning rituals is also visible in these two provinces. The varieties and differences are closely related to cultural, climatic, and linguistic differences in these two provinces. These two provinces’ people have chosen to mourn in accordance with their religion, vegetation, culture, and language. The results of this research show that, in addition to these differences, the common points of this cultural ritual in the two provinces are the love of the Prophet’s family and devotion to Ashura culture.

Adherence to non-operating defense principles in locating infrastructure, especially military centers, can reduce vulnerability and damage in times of danger and crisis and any military threat. There are several factors affecting this location, most of which are natural geographic (climatic and geomorphological) factors. Considering the development of cities and the placement of military centers within the urban context and the lack of adherence to non-operational defense principles in their placement and construction in the past, as well as the need to relocate most of the existing military centers at the provincial level, the importance of the case doubles. One of the main goals of the research is. Two groups of data were used in this study. Climatic data obtained from the Provincial Meteorological Organization and other data obtained from topographic and geological maps and related organizations The present study deals with the role of climatic elements and other effective factors in locating military sites. The purpose is to identify areas that are prone to non-operating defense principles. The strategic position of the East Azerbaijan Province in northwestern Iran in order to align with the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic and to position itself on the European and Central Asian communication axis further emphasizes the importance of non-operational defense principles in locating sensitive and military centers. . The research method in this research is based on the Network Analysis Process (ANP) and GIS analysis. After weighting the layers and overlapping them and examining the principles of non-operating defense, the final mapping was prepared and the results show that among the factors Effective in locating military centers in the study area, climatic factors have the highest weight (0.34).

Non-representational theories have influenced rural geography, and geographers are dealing with rural issues not only discursively, but also as part of a set of embodied, practiced, and experienced elements of life. Local plans of rural settlements are among the important rural issues and the present study aims to identify the shortcomings and inadequacies of these plans in East Azerbaijan province. Research in the context of NRT as a mixed inductive thinking method has used a qualitative method (phenomenology with MAXQDA) to discover propositions; from the mixed method (Q) to subjectivize and discover mental patterns and finally, the quantitative method (SEM by LISREL method) to determine the final effective factors in rural local planning. "Lack of a clear management system for the village" (local management); "Lack of attention to local production methods" (knowledge-based); "Weakness in the procurement system (scientific weakness of consulting engineers in recognizing the needs of the villagers)" (evaluation-oriented); "Process and content ambiguity in how policies and programs are formulated" (explicit); And "Lack of attention to local indigenous knowledge and rural participation in local planning" (participatory and eco-oriented) were identified as five perspectives or mental models on the most important shortcomings of local rural development planning. The final comparison and validation of quantitative and qualitative methods showed that the "lack of a clear management system for the village" and "weakness in the local planning system" as the main shortcomings are two important propositions that provincial experts, local managers, and members of the local rural community agree on them.

In this research, the approaches of good urban governance and sustainable development of tourism have been used. In relation to the approach of good urban governance, several variables have been presented by valid international organizations, which include the variables of effectiveness, justice, accountability, participation, security and electronic/smart management. Sustainable development of tourism is another approach used in this research; besides, this approach has different dimensions that are classified into three categories: physical-environmental, demographic-social, and economic- institutional. Inside and outside the country, some researches have been conducted in this field, each of which has examined this issue from a specific aspect. So far none of the aspects have analyzed the relationship between good governance and sustainable development of tourism in different cities, and this is exactly the innovation of this research.

Methods and materials:

 The scope of this research is the cities of East Azarbaijan province, which have been selected by considering various criteria such as the city size, geographical distribution of cities at the province, and management and economic conditions, so that the research results can be generalized to all cities. The selected cities are: Tabriz, Bonab and Kalibar. The current research is theoretical-applied research and the comparative investigation of which is based on correlational and analytical methods. Data collection was done based on documentary and survey methods (interviews and questionnaires). Data analysis is a quantitative method that uses descriptive and inferential statistical tests (including multivariate analysis of variance, F statistic, LSD, single-sample T, and Spearman correlation coefficient). The sample size was determined using Cochran's formula with a confidence factor of 95%, which was equal to 384, 382 and 369 people in each of the cities of Tabriz, Bonab and Kalibar respectively. Questioning was done online and the sampling method was based on a simple random method. The scoring of the items in the questionnaires has been done based on the Likert spectrum (five spectrums), so that the very low option is assigned 1 point, and the very high option is assigned 5 points. Option 3 also stands in the middle. The reliability of the research is based on Cronbach's alpha, which is equal to 0.80 and indicates acceptable reliability. The validity of the research also is based on the construct validity.

Surveys indicate that the status of good governance indicators in the cities of Tabriz and Bonab is at an average level (with averages of 2.16 and 2.53, respectively), and in the city of Kalibar is at an appropriate level (with an average of 3.10). Sustainable tourism development indicators were examined in the studied cities and the results showed that the highest sustainability of tourism development has been related to the city of Kalibar (with a coefficient of 3.3); whereas, the lowest stability has been related to the city of Tabriz (with a coefficient of 2.9), which indicates the managers’ ignorance in this field. The results of Spearman's correlation coefficient indicate that there is a significant relationship between level of good urban governance and sustainable development of tourism; In other words, as quality of city governance has improved, the sustainability of their tourism development has increased either. Several factors are influential in aligning the quality of urban governance and the sustainability of tourism development, among which the size of the city, the extent of citizens’ nativity, and the degree of participation in urban management might be mentioned.

The present study argues that with the increase in the quality of urban governance, tourism sustainable development would be more tangible. In order to improve the situation of urban tourism in big cities (Tabriz and to some extent Bonab), the approach of good urban governance in the administration of cities has been suggested. The next step is to increase monitoring mechanisms, which, are currently very poor and this problem has caused an increase in rent-seeking and corruption in the urban management system. Finally, supporting the realization of integrated urban management for the purpose of coordination of the urban tourism development measures and programs, and prevention of the wastage of financial resources is another measure that might help improve the quality of urban governance and more sustainable development of tourism in these cities.

The increase in motor vehicles and the increasing use of cars in the last half century have had adverse effects. These include the number of accidents and the amount of financial and fatal accidents per year. Various factors may affect road accidents, some of which are inevitable and some can be controlled. Among these factors, we can mention the problems of geometric design of the course, environmental conditions and human factors. Accordingly, in this research, identifying identifying road accidental points in the transit roads of East Azerbaijan province using ANP and BWM models. The BWM model as a new model is one of the multi-criteria decision-making models that Taking into account the best and worst criteria, weighing criteria and sub criteria and It can be used in various spatial modeling. In this regard, four main criteria (Climate factors, Environmental factors, Topographic factors, Road factors) and fourteen sub-criteria were used. In order to weight and evaluate the importance of criteria and sub-criteria, two models of BWM and ANP have been used and After calculating the weight of criteria and sub-criteria and integrating them with the standard layers, the final map of the potential road accident occurrences is based on both models. Based on the results, the criterion of climatic factors in both models is of the highest importance in road accidents and the criterion of environmental factors is least important in this regard. Below are the criteria used in both models, Under the rainfall criterion, the most important and the lowest criterion of the river have the least importance in the occurrence of road accidents. The most dangerous route in terms of location in both the Keshkeri-Marand route and Jolfa-Nordoz route is the least dangerous route among the transit routes of the East-Azerbaijan province. The results of the comparison of the two models show that the BWM model with a Consistency Ratio of 0.075 was better than the ANP model with a Consistency Ratio of 0.09. Also, the matching of the results from the two models used with ground control points indicates the greater accuracy and efficiency of the BWM model of the ANP model

According to the geological position and diversity of various events in the northwest of Iran, East Azarbaijan province has a high potential in relation to iron mineralization. The aim of the present study is to identify hematite and magnetite miSnerals in the study area, which includes a range between the cities of Tabriz, Shabestar, Haris and Warzghan. In this research, the multispectral data of OLI sensor of Landsat 8 satellite, ASTER sensor of TERRA satellite, Sentinel-2 satellite, as well as hyperspectral data of Hyperion sensor in order to monitor hematite and magnetite minerals and existing geological maps were used for validation. Is. In this study, in order to identify hematite and magnetite minerals, multi-spectral spectral data was used and to obtain data, data related to different time spectra of these sensors were used. For all obtained data, pre-processing operations, including Atmospheric and radiometric corrections have been done in the environment of ENVI5.3 software. The methods used in this research include index-based methods (band ratio operation) and spectrum-based methods (SID), MF, SFF, LSU). Considering the geological history of East Azarbaijan province, the results of these two methods represent The presence of two minerals, hematite and magnetite, was within the scope of the study, and the comparison of the results showed that the multi-spectral data of the ASTER sensor has a high ability to distinguish and identify the two studied minerals. Since the access to Hyperion hyperspectral data is limited and also covers a limited area compared to multi-spectral data, it can be concluded that ASTER data has more advantages and efficiency in mineralogical studies than other sources of spectral data

 Reference evaporation and transpiration is one of the important elements of the hydrological cycle, which plays an important role in agricultural studies, water resource management plans, irrigation and drainage network design and water structures (Nuri et al., 2013, Volume twenty, number five, page 12). Due to the small amount of precipitation and the limitation of water resources in Iran, the correct management of water resources is very important and it is necessary to be careful in using water.
Data and

In order to carry out this research, daily climatic data during the years 2014 to 2015 of East Azerbaijan (four stations of Maragheh, Midane, Jolfa and Ahar) were prepared from the regional meteorological organization. After normalization and determination of correlation, the data were used in MATLAB software with artificial neural network method with Lunberg-Marquardt training to 70-30 combination for training and simulation. The input data for the simulation of evaporation and transpiration (temperature, sunshine hours, humidity, wind speed) and the work evaluation criteria are RMSE, R2 and MAE, which we gave priority to the data with less error.

In this research, the method based on artificial intelligence (ANN) and three experimental models (Penman Monteith Fau (PMF56), Blaney Kridel (B-C) and Kimberly Penman (K-P) were used to model the non-linear transpiration evaporation system of the reference plant. The results showed that the artificial intelligence method has better accuracy and speed in estimating ET0 compared to experimental

The results showed that the artificial intelligence method has better accuracy and speed. Also, comparing the method of artificial neural networks with classical methods, the results indicate the appropriateness of the performance of artificial neural networks.

Hail is a natural disaster for all people, especially farmers. Usually in the insurance industry to calculate the risk of hail damage in each area, the frequency of rainfall (in terms of days) and the average damage are used, which is statistically significant. Hail is one of the phenomena connected with thunderstorms that occur in unstable atmospheres with high humidity and in the presence of strong winds and with mechanisms that increase instability, and these conditions are affected by Local topography and climatology of air masses. Therefore, in order to obtain an overview of the spatial and temporal distribution of hail damage on agricultural products in East Azerbaijan province and to investigate the differences between different parts of the region in terms of this type of rainfall It is better to identify and introduce the cause of possible differences between different areas and the conditions under which this rainfall occurred by achieving zoning of vulnerable areas in terms of hail damage. Thus, by considering and emphasizing the strategy of natural risk management program, which is considered as a potential and a very serious role in aggravating and increasing the damage caused by natural disasters in the region, it is possible to predict and deal with hail and lead To control the injuries caused by this phenomenon.

East Azerbaijan is located in northwestern Iran between 36˚47' N and 39˚ 40' N latitudes and between 45˚ 3' E and 48˚ 50' E longitudes. East Azerbaijan with an area of 45261.4 square kilometers is located in the northwestern corner of the Iranian plateau, which has agricultural lands of about 1320 thousand hectares, which includes 7.47 percent of the country's agricultural lands. In this study, to investigate and analyze the losses of the agricultural sector due to hail, the statistics of losses of the Agricultural Insurance Fund for the statistical period (2010-2019) were used. Due to the fact that in many cases when the hail phenomenon occurs, its very small area and the limited number of synoptic stations, the occurrence of this phenomenon can not be seen and recorded. So the area to be recorded includes only a small number of these events. Therefore, in order to assess the damage caused by hail in the study area, the days when hail caused damage were extracted and examined from the statistics of damage caused by the Agricultural Products Insurance Fund. Then, spatial statistics, hot spot index and ARC GIS software were used to identify areas vulnerable to hail.
discussion and

According to Table (3), we see that the damage caused by this phenomenon on horticultural products in East Azerbaijan province is an average of 123.5 hectares per year, with Bonab city having an average annual level of 568.1 hectares and Ahar with 491.2 hectares and Tark with 476.2 hectares are in the next ranks. But in terms of damage to crops, it was determined that Qara Aghaj with an annual average of 1143.9 hectares has the highest level of damage and Hashtrood with 826.6 hectares and Ahar with 369.1 hectares are in the next ranks.In terms of the level of damage to the total crop and horticultural products during the study period, it was found that in the province, on average, about 262 hectares of the province's area under cultivation are damaged annually due to this phenomenon. The highest level of damage is related to Qara Aghaj section with an annual average of 1159.7 hectares, which includes 14.7% of the total hail damage in the study area, and Hashtrood and Ahar with 1057.9 (13.4%) and 860.3 hectares (10.9%, respectively). ) Are in the next ranks. In order to identify areas vulnerable to hail, spatial statistics and spatial autocorrelation techniques were used, and in order to ensure areas with high and low value clusters, the * Gi index (Getis - Ard GE) was used. The results showed that in agriculture, the values of positive spatial correlation are concentrated in parts of the south of the province, which is the most vulnerable area in the study area, the central parts of Charavimaq and Shadian, and in the garden sector, the values of positive spatial correlation in Parts of the northwest and southwest of the province are concentrated, and among these, the most vulnerable area in the study area is the central and Yamchi Marand districts.

The results of this study showed that the highest frequency of damaging hail occurred in May and the lowest frequency occurred in August. The results also showed that about 71% of the harmful hail in the study area occurred in the warm seasons, which coincides with the plant growing season in this area. In the period under review, the rainfall of harmful hail in East Azerbaijan province was on average between 09:00 and 15:00 (G.M.T) more than other hours, and in this 10-year period, the maximum rainfall occurred at 12:00.In the study of hot spots based on Gi* index, it was found that in agriculture and horticulture, high value amounts (positive spatial autocorrelation) are concentrated in parts of the south and northwest of the province, respectively. Examination of the total damage of agriculture and horticulture showed that high values (positive spatial correlation) are concentrated in parts of the south of the province, and the most vulnerable areas in the study are the central parts of Charavimaq, Shadian and Nazar Kahrizi. On the other hand, a region with less vulnerability in parts of the west of the province, especially the central parts of Osku, Khosrowshahr, Mamqan, Gogan and the suburbs of Azarshahr, corresponds to areas with a spatial distribution pattern with the highest significant negative spatial self-correlation and 99 Percentages (strong-cold-cold cluster) are concentrated. By examining vulnerable areas, we can point to the high area under cultivation in these areas, as well as the impact of local factors such as topography and altitude and external factors, including the entry of hail systems from the west and southwest of the province in its occurrence and intensification.

Hail is a natural disaster for all people, especially farmers. The Hail damage depends on the frequency and intensity of rainfall. Usually in the insurance industry to calculate the risk of hail damage in each area, the frequency of rainfall (in terms of days) and the average damage, which is statistically significant are used. Hail is one of the phenomena connected with thunderstorms that occur in unstable atmospheres with high humidity and in the presence of strong winds and with mechanisms that increase instability, and these conditions are affected by local topography and climatology of air masses. Therefore, according to the natural risk management strategy, which is a potential and very serious role in reducing the damage caused by natural disasters in the region, hail can be predicted and dealt with and led to control of the resulting damage. Therefore, in order to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of hail damage on agricultural products of East Azerbaijan province, the zoning of vulnerable areas in terms of hail damage, the cause of possible differences in different areas and the conditions in which this rainfall is present, were examined.

East Azerbaijan is located in northwestern Iran between 36˚47' N and 39˚ 40' N latitudes and between 45˚ 3' E and 48˚ 50' E longitudes. East Azerbaijan with an area of ​​45261.4 square kilometers is located in the northwestern of the Iranian plateau. In this study, to investigate and analyze the losses of the agricultural sector due to hail, the data of the agricultural Insurance fund for the were useded from 2010-2019. In many cases the hail phenomenon occurs in small area where there are limited number of synoptic stations so the occurrence of this phenomenon cannot be seen and recorded. Therefore, in order to assess the damage caused by hail in the study area, the day's whit hail damages were extracted and examined from the data of the Agricultural Products Insurance Fund. Then, spatial statistics, hot spot index and ARC GIS software were used to identify areas vulnerable to hail.

The results showed that the damage caused by this phenomenon on Agricultural crops in East Azerbaijan province is an average of 123.5 hectares per year, Bonab with annual average 568.1 hectares and Ahar with 491.2 hectares and Tark with 476.2 hectares are in the next ranks. But in terms of damage to crops, it was determined that Qara Aghaj with an annual average of 1143.9 hectares has the highest level of damage and Hashtrood with 826.6 hectares and Ahar with 369.1 hectares are in the next ranks.In terms of the level of damage to the total crop and horticultural products during the study period, it was found that in the province, on average, about 262 hectares of the province's area under cultivation are damaged annually due to this phenomenon. The highest level of damage is related to Qara Aghaj region with an annual average of 1159.7 hectares, which includes 14.7% of the total hail damages in the study area, and Hashtrood and Ahar with 1057.9 (13.4%) and 860.3 hectares (10.9%, respectively). Are in the next ranks. The spatial statistics and spatial autocorrelation techniques were used identify areas vulnerable to hail, and the Gi* index was used to ensure areas with high and low value clusters. The results showed that in agriculture, the values ​​of positive spatial correlation are concentrated in parts of the south of the province, which is the most vulnerable area, the central parts of Charavimaq and Shadian, In the garden sector, the values ​​of positive spatial correlation are concentrated the northwest and southwest of the province, and among most vulnerable area in the study are in the central and Yamchi Marand districts.

The results of this study showed that the highest frequency of damaging hail occurred in May and the lowest frequency occurred in August. The results also showed that about 71% of the harmful hail in the study area occurred in the warm seasons, which coincides with the plant growing season in this area. In the period under review, the rainfall of harmful hail in East Azerbaijan province was on average between 09:00 and 15:00 (G.M.T) more than other hours, and in this 10-year period, the maximum rainfall occurred at 12:00.In the study of hot spots based on Gi* index, it was found that in agriculture, high values ​​(positive spatial autocorrelation) are concentrated in parts of the south and northwest of the province, respectively. Examination of the total damage of agriculture and horticulture showed that high values ​​(positive spatial correlation) are concentrated in parts of the south of the province, and the most vulnerable areas in the study are ​​the central parts of Charavimaq, Shadian and Nazar Kahrizi. On the other hand, a region with less vulnerability in parts of the west of the province, especially the central parts of Osku, Khosrowshahr, Mamqan, Gogan and the suburbs of Azarshahr, corresponds to areas with a spatial distribution pattern with the highest significant negative spatial self-correlation and 99 Percentages (strong-cold-cold cluster) are concentrated. By examining vulnerable areas, we can point to the high area under cultivation in these areas, as well as the impact of local factors such as topography, altitude and external factors, such as the entry of hail storms from the west and southwest of the province in its occurrence and intensification. The results of this study show the efficiency of spatial statistics techniques in identifying vulnerable areas and proper segregation based on the principles of spatial statistics and can be used as a model in other agricultural and economic sectors of the country. It is also recommended to study this index and combine the information obtained from spatial statistics with climatic information, studying the long-term impact of phenomena on changes in the pattern of hot spots and developing other spatial indicators in future studies.

     The purpose of the spatial planning is to achieve the most desirable distribution of population, by the best form of distribution of economic and social activities across land, which has not yet been seriously addressed, or at least showed its manifestations, and in this time spatial planning as a necessity has been paid. The planning plans of East Azerbaijan province are no exception to this rule and at present in the field of preparing the planning plan of the province, there are many issues, the most obvious of which is the lack of practical participation of involved institutions and effective elements in governing the province. Citizens in different stages of preparing the provincial planning plan, not paying attention to the institutional aspects of land management and provincial planning management, the existence of legal ambiguities and significant institutional vacuum in the field of provincial planning management and not knowing the basis of the provincial planning plan and legal authorities Preparation, approval, monitoring, feedback and review, etc. Therefore, recognizing the obstacles and problems of land management plans implemented in particular and the country's development plans in general, is very important in development plans; Because recognizing the problems of the previous plans helps to some extent to avoid those obstacles and problems in writing and implementing the next landscaping plans, and in this way, to achieve the desired future or the balanced development. Therefore, due to the importance of conducting planning studies in East Azerbaijan, in this study, the effective factors in the implementation and causes, factors and obstacles of research plans in East Azerbaijan province have been investigated. Therefore, the purpose of the present study is to analyze and evaluate these challenges and obstacles to the implementation of development programs in the realization of land management and tries to answer the following questions; 1) What are the reasons for the non-realization of land management plans in East Azerbaijan? And 2) What are the effective factors in the implementation of the land management plan in East Azerbaijan province?

     The present research was applied in terms of purpose, and in terms of nature and descriptive-analytical method, and documentary and field studies were used to collect data and information. The statistical population of this study includes 197 scientific elites (university professors and doctoral students, masters in urban, rural, regional planning and urban planning), experts and specialists in urban management in East Azerbaijan province. To analyze the data using quantitative methods such as; Structural equations were used in PLS software, regression and path-analysis. 

    The results of research on the reasons for non-implementation of land management plan in the province using structural equation testing in PLS software show; The variable "administrative" with a square value (0.452) is higher than the standard value (0.33) and is therefore described as "average" threshold; The variable "space organization" with a square value (0.4) is greater than the standard value (0.33) and is therefore described as "average" threshold; The variable "economic" with the square value (0.346) is higher than the standard value (0.33) and is therefore described as "average" threshold; The variable "development plans" with a square value (0.740) is greater than the standard value (0.67) and is therefore described as "significant" on the threshold. The results of the study of path coefficients (beta) showed that the administrative and managerial, economic, political and security factors and the space organization have "moderate" values ​​and the "development plans" factor has "strong" values ​​to determine power. Model predictions about endogenous latent variables in the context of land management plans in East Azerbaijan province. Therefore, due to the high values ​​of all values ​​for the variable "Development Plans", it is concluded that the variable "Development Plans" has the greatest impact on the non-implementation of land management plan in the province of East Azerbaijan. For example, land use planning with an all-inclusive approach and rational use of resources and talents in different regions of the country tries to deal with the phenomenon of regional imbalance and provide appropriate solutions for achieving balanced and sustainable development at the land level. However, the lack of proper and complete implementation of development programs in East Azerbaijan province has become the most important obstacle to achieving land management goals. Also, the results in the field of effective factors in the implementation of land management plan in East Azerbaijan province showed that the status of indicators of geographical conditions with a value of T about 9.65 and with a significant level of 0.000, implementation planning with a value of 1.77 and with Significance level of 0.007, institutional with a value of T57.57 and managerial and institutional with a value of T60.60 and significant level of 0.000 in a favorable situation compared to other effective areas in the implementation of land management plan in the study area (province) East Azerbaijan). Also, the results of the route analysis test showed that the most general effect in the field of land management plan is related to socio-cultural conditions with a total effect (0.305) and an institutional index with an overall effect of 0.206. Also, the lowest overall effect is related to the management and legal index with a rate of 0.054. The general effects indicate that in East Azarbaijan province, areas such as imbalance in the population scale of the cities of the province, lack of necessary policies on how to distribute the population in the province, intense concentration of population and activities in the central part of the province. ; Provincial view of organizing hierarchies of urban settlements instead of macro-regional view of territorial areas; Existence of specialized and educated manpower without jobs in the province; High unemployment of young people and university graduates, unfavorable organization of the housing system in the province; Lack of attention to social and human capital in the province; Weakness of participatory foundations and civic institutions in the field of social activities and in the institutional field, restriction of people's participation in formulating policies and programs; The traditional nature of the planning system in accepting the planning approach, the lack of successful implementation and the lack of efficient upstream documents, the weak belief of those in charge of the effectiveness of the planning approach in achieving integrated and sustainable development, limited flexibility in planning strategies; Lack of appropriate rules and regulations and systematic and institutional thinking for land management; Lack of clear and responsible legal institutions for land management, etc. are the areas and factors that have a significant impact on the implementation of land management plans in East Azerbaijan province and sometimes prevent the proper and complete implementation of such plans and plans. To be. In this regard, it can be said that the results of this research with the results of research of Bouzarjmehri et al. In (1397), technical and colleagues in (1397), Jafarian et al. (1397), Tavakoli et al. (1396), Taqvaei and Et al. (2010), Akbari et al. (2015), Sarvar and Khaleiji (2014), Saniei (2011), Sharifzadegan (2010), Latifi (2009), Razavi (2010), Salehi and Pour Asghar (2009) Of Tennessee Valley Civil Organization Studies; The findings of studies by the United States Geological Survey (USGS), etc. are in line and most of these studies with obstacles, causes and strategies for advancing land management plans spatially in various fields.

     The results showed that the administrative and administrative, economic, political and security factors and the spatial organization have "moderate" values and the factor of "programs of development" have strong "values" to determine the model predictions about endogenous latent variables in spatial planning schemes in east Azerbaijan province. Therefore, considering the high values of all values, it is said that the "development plans" index has the greatest impact on the non - realization of spatial planning schemes in east Azerbaijan province. Also, according to the path analysis test, the most general effect on the implementation of spatial planning scheme for socio - cultural conditions with total effect size (0/305) and the institutional index is 0/206. Also, the lowest overall effect is related to the management and legal index with 0/054.