جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « Future research » در نشریات گروه « جغرافیا »

Tourism is a vital industry that has a significant impact on the economic development of many cities and countries around the world. Small-scale cities can also benefit from tourism by generating income, creating job opportunities and promoting cultural exchange. Despite having many tourist attractions, Izeh has not yet fully utilized its capacities for tourism development. The tourism industry of this city is relatively undeveloped and has not received much attention from the government or the private sector. The current research is applied in terms of nature based on the new methods of futurology, analytical and exploratory science, which was carried out by using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. The methods of data collection in this research are documentary-library and field. The statistical population of the research is 60 executive and academic experts of Izeh, who were selected using the Delphi technique and sampled by the snowball sampling method. MARCOS model was used to rank the variables in the four dimensions of tourism in Izeh. Based on the results obtained from 43 variables, investment, infrastructure, income, and employment factors have the greatest impact on the economic development of Izeh city. The degree of influence and influence of the variables, 11 influential variables, 16 variables are in the risk spectrum, 7 variables are in the influence spectrum and the rest of the variables have a low influence and influence degree. Finally, based on the effects of the variables, the direct and indirect relationships of the variables are categorized into 5 spectrums. Also, the ranking of each of the 43 research factors in the four dimensions of religious, natural, historical and cultural tourism in Izeh are different.

Floods as one of the natural hazards can cause much damage to cities and communities. Khorramabad city is also one of the cities exposed to this danger. Therefore, the current research aims to analyze the resilience scenarios of Khorramabad City against flood risk to provide solutions for the future. This research is practical and descriptive-analytical, and exploratory. The research data collection is based on the Delphi technique. A sample size of 44 people was determined to identify the key drivers, a sample size of 10 people was determined to develop scenarios, and the sampling method was a snowball. In this research, the key driver in the field of flood resilience of Khorramabad city was extracted using Mic Mac software, the descriptors were analyzed using Scenario Wizard, and the consistency value of flood resilience scenarios of Khorramabad city was determined. 10 key drivers and 36 possible situations were determined using the opinion of experts and the output of Mic Mac software for the future resilience of Khorramabad city against floods, and the matrix questionnaire of mutual effects was designed and sent to the experts. The results of the scenario wizard software showed that the key factors of institutions' performance, communication capacity, governance, internet infrastructure, and construction boom in the scenarios have the most adaptive value in the future resilience of Khorramabad city against floods

Given natural, historical, and cultural attractions, cities are considered important tourist destinations. Urban tourism development brings positive and negative economic, social, cultural, and environmental impacts. This issue becomes particularly significant concerning sustainable development. Currently, the development of sustainable tourism plays such a role in the economic, social, and cultural development of the countries that economists consider it the engine of the country's development. The development of tourism in the world requires the efficiency of the management system, the strengthening of the infrastructure, and the improvement of the necessary capacities. One of the most important factors in the development of tourism in any region is how it is managed. This research aimed to investigate the future of spatial-strategic urban tourism development of Kish Island with a sustainable development approach and to compare the scenario writing method, SWOT analysis, and SOAR strategic model. The research method was exploratory and descriptive-analytical, which was conducted using library and field studies resulting from interviews and questionnaires (in two stages using the Delphi method). The sample included 54 officials and experts of tourism, urban planning and development and civil engineering of Kish Free Zone Organization, professors and experts of other disciplines related to the urban and tourism field, and 100 tourists and residents. SPSS software, one-sample T-test and ANOVA were used to analyze data. To determine the drivers of development and key factors, first 45 of the indicators that showed more than 60% uncertainty were selected, and then 30 were identified as influential factors by forming a panel of experts. For data analysis, interaction effects analysis method was used in MicMac software. The results indicated the instability of variables within the system. After identifying the influencing, dual, independent, and dependent factors, three scenarios for the sustainable development of Kish Island were developed based on the dependent factors, which included efficient tourism management, public participation, job creation, and income generation. The scenarios were compared with the strategies derived from the SWOT analysis and the SOAR strategic model. Finally, the point density method in GIS software was used to analyze the tourism space of Kish Island.

The decline of social and economic status and functional and physical disorders of these contexts along with the very severe decline in the quality of the urban environment are among the reasons that have persuaded urban policymakers and planners to provide new strategies and solutions in the face of its problems. Accordingly, the futures research approach can keep peoplechr('39')s eyes open for possible future events, opportunities, and risks; Reduces ambiguities, doubts and erosive concerns of people, increases the ability of society and people to make smart choices. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to investigate the key drivers affecting the promotion of dysfunctional urban contexts with a future research approach in the Sartpooleh neighborhood of Sanandaj. This research is applied in terms of purpose and according to the studied components, the approach is descriptive-analytical method and environmental and Delphi scanning technique has been used to identify variables and indicators. Then, a semi-structured questionnaire was distributed among 45 experts in the field of urban issues. The data were analyzed using MICMAC software. The results showed that the urban system, especially in the worn-out tissue section of Sartpooleh neighborhood (in Sanandaj) is going through unstable conditions. Also, according to the analysis, 19 factors as key drivers such as authoritative management methods to renovate worn-out tissue, centralism, timely injection of funds when renovating worn-out tissue directly and variables focusing on improvement and renovation in comprehensive and detailed plans. Citizenschr('39') right to intervene in construction, paving the way for the entry of the private sector and balancing and achieving social justice were indirectly introduced to improve the quality and performance of worn-out structures.

The purpose of the current research is to explain the key drivers effective on the development of football in Khuzestan province. The current research is applied in terms of its purpose and analytical-exploratory in terms of its nature and method. In order to collect data, questionnaires, Delphi technique and document-library studies were used. The research findings showed that among the 35 main influencing factors, 20 variables are known as key factors. that these variables have the most influence and the least influence on the future development of football in Khuzestan province and include the factors of the existence of suitable websites for each club, the supervision of the clubs' performance by the federation, the existence of the communication department with radio and television, the existence of sufficient will from the institutions Relatedly, the existence of suitable football schools, the provision of the necessary laws to deal with clubs and players, the existence of sponsors committed to paying salaries, helping to privatize football and reducing the influence of the government, the existence of coherent laws regarding financial sponsors, earning the necessary income from holding Competitions, Selling proper tickets, selling club uniforms and flags, helping the principle of privatization in football, the existence of talent search committees, the use of new methods to discover football talents, the existence of contracts between the football federation and education, the existence of the necessary rules to comply with the framework cultural factors, the existence of news officers in clubs, proper interaction with reporters, the existence of suitable satellite facilities for proper coverage of the game. The results showed that due to the high influence of the economic, media and managerial factors in the development of football sport by the sports officials in Khuzestan province,

One of the most basic principles of urban planning and management is to pay attention to the changes and transformations of the population and to know enough about its population structure. Considering that the effect of historical developments and social, political and economic factors on the balance of the population structure is not the same in all parts of the city, the city will face spatial changes in the population structure of urban areas. This issue has led to the formation of different needs among urban areas and the change of urban land use. The aim of the current research is to evaluate the role of population structures on urban land use changes in Ahvaz metropolis. In terms of practical purpose, in terms of descriptive-analytical nature and in terms of method, the present research is a combination of library and survey methods and is based on future research approach. The scope of the research was the city of Ahvaz. The statistical population of this research is 40 people of population and urban land use experts. For data analysis, the Delphi method, the cross-effects matrix (MICMAC) was used. The findings of the research showed that among the 39 main factors affecting the role of population structures on urban land use changes, 14 variables are known as key and influential. that these variables have the most influence and the least influence on the future development of the role of population structures and urban land use changes in Ahvaz city. Also, the results showed that in terms of the direct influence of variables such as immigration with a score of 71, social welfare and population density with scores of 63 and 61, and the variables that have an indirect effect on the population structure and urban land use change are immigration, population density and social welfare, respectively. They are located in the first to third positions.

The activity of Takfiri-terrorist groups of ISIS in the territory of the eastern borders of the country is one of the most important events that has received serious attention in recent years. Therefore, ensuring the security of the eastern borders is a very important concern, which has faced many uncertainties in the future due to the activities of ISIS. The purpose of this research is to identify the future scenarios of the presence and activity of the Takfiri-terrorist group ISIS in the eastern borders of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Intuitive logic approach (8-step Petershwartz method) has been used for scenario writing. Data collection tools included systematic review of sources, interviews with experts, expert panel and Delphi, and observation of ISIS actions, and to analyze the data, the opinions of 18 security-law enforcement experts were analyzed qualitatively until theoretical saturation was reached. Checked.

The drivers and different states of the two key uncertainties include the possibility of cooperation of other takfiri groups in the region with ISIS and the state of coordination of border residents in dealing with Tadwin group, which in the best situation of ISIS is not able to directly attack the eastern borders of the country and the border residents are aligned with each other. And they are in front of ISIS, and in the worst situation, with the cooperation of other Takfiri groups, they penetrate into the country from the eastern borders, and some border residents join this terrorist group.

This research was conducted with the aim of investigating the impact of social distancing in the future of the social structure of Tehran. The research method was qualitative studies and was carried out using the Delphi method. In this research, twenty experts in the fields related to the corona phenomenon and social distancing were identified by snowball method, they were interviewed and through expressing their experiences, the influential components of the social distancing phenomenon and its impact on different aspects and changes in the social structure. Determined. The tool of this research was a questionnaire that was conducted through the Delphi technique in four stages. Spss and Excel software were used to classify statistical cases and general consensus and reliability. After analyzing the qualitative data, five main themes were presented, which are: public culture, social life, new communication media, family structure, social classes. Each of these themes had several subcategories, which are preferably discussed in the final chapters. Among these categories, we can mention the explosion of information and knowledge, multiple digitization, increasing social demand in economic and political structures, rethinking the cultural system governing the society, and the role of trust and social capital between the government and the nation. The results of the research showed that the social distancing caused by the corona virus, despite the many material and spiritual costs it imposed on the society, provided a suitable opportunity to review and rethink the social, political, economic and cultural structures and the lives of people

The purpose of the present research is to investigate the spatial expansion and develop scenarios related to the future development of the city of Mahabad, considering the role of commercial activities in the physical field. This research is considered to be applied from the point of view of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of nature and method. The method of data collection is document-survey and Micmac and Scenario Vizard software were used in data analysis. The results obtained from the entropy calculation show that the physical growth of the city was scattered and non-dense. Also, the result of Heldren's model shows that 48% of city growth is due to population and 52% of city growth is related to horizontal growth and dispersion. In the research process, the most important primary and driving factors related to the future spatial expansion of Mahabad city were identified with an emphasis on the commercial activities of the city, and then according to the importance of drivers and their uncertainty in three cases, 1- (combined use and growth) smart city); 2- Spatial expansion of the city with the same current trend (linear shape) and 3- (Spatial expansion of the city in the form of scattered development in all directions of the city) scenarios were compiled for the city of Mahabad. And in the second step, mixed use and smart urban growth were introduced as the most suitable scenario of Mahabad city, which requires the formulation of strategies, policies and operational plans in line with urban sustainability.

One of the vital orientations in line with development policies is innovative foresight. The term foresight and foresight refers to a wide range of approaches that avoid repetitive outcomes and improve decision-making and attempt to map the best possible future over a long-term time horizon, thus striving to achieve comprehensive planning. And achieving local, micro and regional sustainable development and reducing regional imbalances, recognizing the criteria and key capabilities of these sectors and changing the approach from forecasting to future research is an undeniable necessity. And based on this, the goal and question of this research is to identify key factors that are effective in formulating future scenarios and to identify development factors on the future situation.

The current research is descriptive and analytical and applied in nature.which was realized by emphasizing participation with the presence of all stakeholders. The scope of research is at the local level. And the target area includes ecological, physical, social and cultural, economic, political and managerial. The type of expected output is the way to identify the key factors affecting the future situation with an emphasis on the modeling method of the factor analysis type and the target groups including all the residents of the settlements and governmental and non-governmental organizations.which followed the Delphi method. So that the required data has been collected using field operations at the level of 104 villages through holding discussion group meetings through the formation of cooperative cores using local experts, representatives of different groups using the Delphi method. And finally, identification of key factors was used to develop future scenarios and identification of development drivers.

Future visions are one of the key measures. And it can be used strategically for policy making. In addition to that, it can help everyone to understand the concept of their development through future change. However, until the last two decades, it followed the traditional top-down approach. And it did not provide a long-term and growing economic base. But today, local initiatives and bottom-up development (endogenous development) have led to changes in spatial development. Therefore, this matter was taken into consideration in order to make this research as close to reality as possible. And it is even differentiating this research from other research findings.which mainly emphasize the role of governments (traditional top-down planning approach). But this research has adopted the endogenous approach (planning and policy-making from the bottom up). And the planners and policy makers are obliged to use the participation of local residents and the results of research findings for the future study of Khadafarin city in formulating spatial development plans.In this way, to have a significant impact on the future events and processes of Khadafarin city and draw long-term results.

This research was established with the aim of investigating and identifying key factors using the intellectual basis of factor analysis. And the method used in it has unique complexity and innovation. And it is among the first scientific experience of studies related to future research at the local level. Therefore, it should be acknowledged that various factors can affect the arrangement of phenomena and structure and consequently the spatial organization of a region. It seems that the identification of different and integrated methods can be of great help in this process. Therefore, considering the identification of three key factors: 1- Environmental sustainability (with 8 programs and Pishran projects) 2- Protection of natural resources (with 3 programs and Pishran projects) 3- Land management and agricultural production (with 3 programs and Pishran project); Through mutual/structural effects analysis, these factors were selected as the key factors of the study area, and the subvariables of each of these factors (extracted from factor analysis type modeling) were determined as driving programs and projects.

The aim of this study is to identify the key factors affecting the viability of Zabol city. Therefore, the present study is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of nature and method is based on new methods of futurology, research, analysis and exploration. In order to collect the required data and information, a questionnaire and Delphi technique and documentary studies and libraries have been used.To apply the Delphi technique and analyze the cross-effects, questionnaires have been prepared in two stages. Various and comprehensive aspects of viability have been provided to experts, which led to the general extraction of factors affecting the viability of Zabol city. The second phase includes 30 questionnaires to determine the main factors affecting the viability of Zabol city through weighting, which was completed by experts and finally used to analyze the collected data from MicMac software. The results show that among the 33 main factors affecting the survival of Zabol city, a total of 8 key variables affect the survival of Zabul city, so that these variables have the most impact and the least impact on the future of survival in Zabul city . It includes factors such as "deprivation, investment, residents' desire to live, access to infrastructure, housing and roads, urban furniture and quality of appearance, social interactions, civic and collective institutions." Due to the relationship and internal impact of these factors with each other, the quality of each of these factors should be improved.

Regional development planning has been welcomed by planners and policy makers for different territories and regions during the past decades in order to reduce the distance between the regions of a territory, so that currently organizations, institutions and planners are looking for solutions to get out of the lack of development of regions. On the other hand, the world we live in is a dynamic world. Therefore, since human behavior and plans determine the consequences of the dynamics of the world, it is appropriate for humans to be aware of these behaviors, plans, and the dynamics of the world around them, and based on this knowledge and awareness, take the best actions to create a bright and desirable future. . According to what was said, this research seeks to identify the key propellants in the regional economic development of the oceanic coasts of Iran. Considering the importance and dynamics of the role of beaches in regional development, in this research, first, using the library method, the effective variables were extracted in this field, and then according to the opinion of 30 experts in this field, among the identified variables, 54 important variables were identified. Variables was extracted in economic, socio-cultural, physical, managerial and environmental dimensions. Then, using the MIC MAC future research technique, among them, the key propellants of the economic development of the regions of the oceanic coasts of Iran were identified. Finally, the indicators identified in this research were evaluated in the mentioned dimensions, and finally eight indicators include: macro government policies, welfare and social security, tourism and ecotourism, commerce and trade, regional transportation network, employment generation, people's income and inflation were introduced as key and effective propellants in the development of the regional economy in the ocean coast of Iran.

The weakening of livelihood assets of local communities and poverty in the general sense is one of the fundamental challenges in the world, especially in developing societies. Due to the special economic and environmental conditions of the country, Iran is not exempt from this and many of its regions and settlements are facing livelihood challenges. Because the country of Iran has different conditions in its different regions due to the inclusion of a wide range of human and environmental conditions; The way of dealing with the factors affecting the livelihood of the households living in its areas is different from each other and it is necessary to take appropriate measures according to the specific conditions governing each one, which requires the identification of the main factors affecting the livelihood.The current research method is of applied type and using the method of future research, interviews were conducted with key people in the settlements of Maneh township (118 settlements) in the form of inductive research and using the fundamental theory method, cross effects analysis, and Mic Mac software have been analyzed and evaluated in a combined way.The research results indicate the unstable conditions of livelihood assets in the residential areas of Maneh. However, various factors are involved in the destabilization of the livelihood structure of the city. However, among these factors, those directly related to humans and their activities have had the most impact, and since most of these factors have high uncertainty, the way to deal with them should be appropriate to the changing conditions.

Rural areas of Iran are in critical times through their rural-urban development process. To grow and develop the future of rural areas of the country and to strengthen the rapid social and economic prospect of rural rural areas, it is necessary and necessary to consider all the actors and the actors and theologians of the country's rural development. For this reason, for further development of the country's villages, it is necessary to formulate future strategies and strategies of rural development. The purpose of this study is to develop and present future strategies and strategies of rural development in the 1414 horizon with a future research approach. The present study is applied, applied, and in terms of combination (quantitative and qualitative). The statistical population of academic experts and managers related to rural process has been the country. 20 samples were selected using a non -explicit sampling method and targeted audio. For data collection and information, the questionnaires were used by the interview and interview interviews with respect to the models and the purpose of the research. Structural and software -software model analysis was used for data analysis. The results of the research showed that improving local authorities' capacity to meet the needs of rural population, coordination of rural and urban policies, and aligning the backgrounds of strategies reform, modernization of rural areas using smart villages, providing credits and credits Banking systems in rural areas/ credit and financial services, evolution and improvement of all the constituent elements of the agricultural value chain and ultimately increased rural education and their intervention in rural investment and planning the most important scenarios and strategy There are rural development in Iran. Expressing strategies and their application can be the basis for reforming the policies and strategies of strengthening and developing the country's rural eye and guidance to determine the future path of rural areas of the country.

Housing is one of the most basic human needs and a key component in the sustainable development of society. In different countries of the world, including developing countries, various policies have been considered to provide housing, especially for the low-income groups. Based on the researches done so far, different programs called "solutions" have been put on the agenda to solve the problems of urban housing. But according to experts, these plans have been the only shelter for the swollen wounds of these people; Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to identify the key drivers for housing planning of low-income groups in the isolated urban area of Naysar (in Sanandaj). This research is applied in terms of purpose and according to the studied components, the approach is descriptive-analytical method and environmental and Delphi scanning technique has been used to identify variables and indicators. Then a semi-structured questionnaire was distributed among 40 experts in the field of urban issues. The obtained data were analyzed using MICMAC software. The results showed that the urban system, especially in the housing sector in the isolated urban area of Naysar (in the city of Sanandaj) is going through unstable conditions. Also, based on the analysis, 15 factors were identified as key drivers for providing and improving the housing situation needed for the low-income and poor in the study area, among which the role of economic and socio-cultural factors are more prominent.

As the world today has undergone changes, transformations and developments in various fields ,the growth and expansion of informal settlement and its consequences have also changed. Today,the process of formation and typology of informal settlements has changed and this process and complexity, are necessity of foresight and also clarifies and justifies the spread of this phenomenon.The purpose of this research, is the Future study of the status of informal settlements and presentation of future scenarios the up to 1410 using a Futures studies theory for the desired scenario that will be in line with controlling the expansion and organization of settlements. this research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in nature. To analyze the variables, the method of cross-effects analysis and the scenario wizard software were used. According to the scenario writing method, using the capabilities of the scenario wizard software, 3 strong scenarios, 4 static scenarios and 5 critical scenarios were extracted, the results show that 27% of the situations The development of informal settlements in the future is favorable and 67% is stable and critical. The metropolis of Tehran is facing three groups of scenarios for the development of informal settlements in the future. The most desirable scenario is the first group, which is based on the design and influence of policies and programs for providing housing and management. Recognizing informal ownership and fully curbing it and planning according to the development of settlements in order to increase the security of the neighborhoods and establish effective and efficient communication between the councils and the people and solve the problems of the residents. The ways to promote the development of informal settlements include: formalizing informal land ownership, creating organization to organize informal settlements and reduce the number of organizations and lack of coordination and to create cheap

Climate change during the last four decades has brought many consequences in different sectors of human security. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to identify the security threats of climate change in Iran.

This research is qualitative in terms of approach and practical in terms of purpose, in terms of the type of descriptive-analytical method, and in the methodology of the research, the future wheel has been done using interviews. The statistical population of the research is professors and experts and the sample size is 30 people in a targeted manner.

The findings show that the consequences of climate change in six areas: fresh water systems, marine environments, terrestrial ecosystems, human settlements, agriculture and human health, are proportional in different regions of the country. Changes in conditions have led to the emergence of security threats.

The climate changes in Iran will face many challenges in the political, social, environmental and policing dimensions in the future, as the policy makers; If scientific and logical solutions are not adopted to control and deal with this phenomenon, they will be forced to use the power of security and law enforcement forces to limit protests and disturbances. Considering that in addition to natural factors, human factors such as incorrect policies in the field of environment and unprincipled use of natural resources have played a significant role in the occurrence of some problems caused by climate change. Definitely, with correct and written planning,

In Shahin Shahr, measures have been taken regarding the electronic city by the municipality, this city has been designated as a smart city pilot in the country and it moves among the smart cities with the slogan: smart citizen, smart city and smart municipality. The dry structure of urban management in the city of Shahin Shahr and insufficient understanding of the capabilities of information and communication technology have caused the slowness of smart building in Shahin Shahr. The main purpose of the current research was to identify the most important indicators of smart city development in Shahinshahr Municipality's Urban Development and Architecture Vice-Chancellor. Therefore, the method of this descriptive-analytical and survey research was chosen. In the first step of the research, a list of primary factors that play a role in the development of the smart city in Shahin Shahr municipality's urban planning and architecture department, were identified as research variables, using documentary sources and previous researches and experts' Delphi questionnaire. In the following, by using the mutual effects analysis method and Micmac software, the influence of primary factors on each other was evaluated in the form of experts' questionnaire. The results of the studies show that seven key factors play a role in the development of the smart city in ShahinShahr Municipality's Urban Planning and Architecture Deputy.  These seven factors include the improvement of access to services with the help of technology, the level of political participation of citizens, the level of satisfaction with the transparency of bureaucracy, the creation of a network platform for the cooperation of all stakeholders, the availability of software and hardware infrastructures, the use of information technology in order to reduce The process is based on paper and providing online public services to citizens.

The aim of the current research was to identify the effective factors in the future state of housing planning in Ahvaz metropolis. The research method was applied based on the purpose and descriptive-analytical based on the nature. In this regard, by applying the mutual effects analysis method in Mikmak software, the key factors affecting the housing supply system of Ahvaz City were identified. Finally, the effective factors of the housing supply system in the mentioned city were selected by using the scenario writing method in the software and the scenario wizard was executed. The findings showed that the 7 factors of migration, marginalization, weakening of the value of national currency, low ability to pay loans, increase in land prices, insignificant credit facilities, and lack of an integrated and coordinated management system in the housing sector had the most impacts and key roles in the system. They provided housing in Ahvaz City.

The purpose of this research is to investigate and present the best scenarios of intermediate development in the old and historical contexts of Qazvin city. In the analysis of the data, first descriptively and then inferentially, Scenario Wizard and Mic Mac software were used. The statistical sample in this study is a group of experts who were helped in formulating the initial scenarios in the first stage in the form of interviews, and in the second part, in order to score these scenarios in the matrix table of Mic Mac software, they helped in the form of questioning. The results showed that the desired fabric in Qazvin city is in a relative condition in terms of citizens' access to urban uses. Based on the results, private sector investment, people's participation, integration of organizations and their coordination, and the creation of traditional mechanisms have a great effect on the protection of the tissue, and their protection should be taken into account. There are some infrastructural, service and management problems at the neighborhood level. which can increase the level of satisfaction by solving the problems and organizing the texture. Based on the results of cross-effects scenario in Mik-Mak software, among the 25 identified key scenarios, 9 scenarios are directly and indirectly more effective in relation to the development of intermediate and the revitalization of these urban contexts. Finally, three main scenarios are presented in the form of the most important engines.