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جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « Water Table » در نشریات گروه « جغرافیا »

تکرار جستجوی کلیدواژه «Water Table» در نشریات گروه «علوم انسانی»
  • سینا ضیایی شندرشامی، اباذر اسمعلی*، رئوف مصطفی زاده، اردوان قربانی
    محدودیت پتانسیل آب زیرزمینی در آبخوان آبرفتی دشت اردبیل و عدم توجه به میزان برداشت مجاز و توسعه ی روز افزون مصارف کشاورزی، شرب، صنعت، بهره برداری ناموزون و نامتناجس، عدم جایگزینی آن از طریق ریزش های جوی به دلیل مواجه شدن با سال های کم آبی و خشک، موجب گردیده که آبخوان دشت اردبیل با افت سطح و در نتیجه کاهش حجم مخزن مواجه شود. این پژوهش با هدف بررسی عوامل موثر بر افت و تغییرات سطح آب های زیرزمینی دشت اردبیل در دو مقطع زمانی 1995 تا 2005 و 2005 تا 2015 انجام گرفت. برای انجام پژوهش حاضر، از داده های بارش ماهانه ایستگاه های هواشناسی اردبیل، نیارق، نمین، آبی بیگلو، هیر، سامیان واقع در داخل دشت اردبیل در طول آماری 20 ساله (1995-2015) و داده های ماهانه ارتفاع سطح ایستابی تعداد 24 حلقه چاه پیزومتری برای دشت انتخاب شد. برای تهیه ی نقشه ی کاربری اراضی در دو دوره ی زمانی، تصاویر سنجنده های OLI و TM ماهواره لندست مربوط به خرداد ماه 1993، 2005 و 2015 استفاده شد. نتایج بررسی تغییرات سطح کاربری اراضی در طول سال های 1993، 2005 و 2015 در دشت اردبیل نشان داد کاربری های زراعت آبی به ترتیب با 26/48156، 66/50678 و 68/58356 هکتار بیشترین سطح و پهنه ی آبی به ترتیب با 75/168، 65/88 و 95/380 هکتار کمترین سطح را داشتند که نشان از دخالت بالای اراضی کشاورزی در افت سطح ایستابی اراضی کشاورزی در دشت اردبیل می باشد. در نهایت بررسی روند تغییرات چاه های پیژومتری نشان داد در دشت اردبیل حداکثر تراز سطح ایستابی (1437 متر) مربوط به قسمت های جنوب دشت اطراف اراضی-نوشهر-کرگان و حداقل تراز (1300 متر) مربوط به اطراف روستای خلیفه لو شیخ می باشد. مطابق با نقشه ی پراکنش چاه ها، بیشترین تراکم چاه ها در منطقه ی شرقی و مرکزی دشت بوده است.
    کلید واژگان: آب زیرزمینی, کاربری اراضی, چاه های پیزومتری, سطح ایستابی, دشت اردبیل, استان اردبیل}
    Sina Ziaye Shendershami, Abazar Esmali Ouri *, Raoof Mostafazadeh, Ardavan Ghorbani
    The aim of this study was to investigate the factors affecting the decrease and change of groundwater level in Ardabil plain in two periods 1995 to 2005 and 2005 to 2015. The monthly precipitation data of Ardebil, Nir, Namin, Abi baglo, Hir, Samiyan stations in the Ardabil plain during the statistical period of 1995-2015 and monthly data of the height of the station in 24 Piezometric well ring were chosen for the plain. Landslide OLI and TM satellite imagery was used to prepare land use map for the target periods in June 1993, 2005, and 2015. The results of land use changes in the years 1993, 2005, and 2015 in the Ardabil plain showed the highest watery agriculture with 48156.26, 50678.66, and 58356.68 and area water level, respectively, were with 168.75 ,88.65 and 380.95 ha, lowest level Which indicates the high level of agricultural land involvement in the decline of agricultural land in the Ardebil plain. The study of the process of Piezometric Wells showed that in the plain of Ardabil, the maximum height of the surface of the station (1437 m) is related to the southern parts of the plains around the village - Noshahr-Kargan and the minimum height (1300 m) is related to the village of Khalifaulo Sheikh. The highest level of cultivation is also focused on user plans in these areas.
    Keywords: Groundwater, Land use, Piezometric well, Water Table, Ardabil plain, Ardabil province}
  • مسعود جلالی*، محمد کمانگر، رباب رزمی

    در سال های اخیر سطح تراز آب های زیرزمینی در اثر تغییرات اقلیمی و همچنین شیوه و میزان بهره برداری از آن ها، روند نزولی داشته است. با توجه به افزایش تقاضای آب و افت شدید آب های زیرزمینی، مدیریت پایدار این منابع از اهمیت شایانی برخوردار است. پیش بینی سطح ایستابی با استفاده از مدل های ریاضی و آماری می تواند کمک قابل توجهی به برنامه ریزی و تصمیم گیری های مناسب جهت تامین آب در درازمدت، داشته باشد. در این مطالعه تلاش شده است تا سطح آب های زیرزمینی با استفاده از شبکه ی عصبی گرادیان دیسکنت و تابع انتقال Hyperbolic Tangent پیش بینی شود. مدل تابع انتقال Tanh با تعداد 40 نرون در لایه پنهان با ضریب همبستگی 99/0 و مجذور مربعات خطا 01/0 برای پیش بینی سطح ایستابی پیاده سازی شد. با تعمیم این مدل به ده چاه مشاهده ای و برون یابی در محیط سامانه ی اطلاعات جغرافیایی، مدل مکانی پیوسته سطح ایستابی در دشت سرخون برای سال 1400 تخمین زده شد. نتایج نشان داد که سطح ایستابی در قسمت های غربی دشت با مقدار 98/72 متر بیشترین و در بخش شرقی دشت با توجه به تراکم جمعیتی بیشتر مقدار با 72/18 متر کمترین سطح ایستابی را خواهند داشت. با توجه به میزان خطای پایین مدل، می توان نتیجه گرفت که با اجرای این مدل در دیگر حوزه ها می توان پیش بینی صحیحی از سطح آب های زیرزمینی به دست آورد و در برنامه ریزی و مدیریت پایدار آب های زیرزمینی از آن استفاده نمود

    کلید واژگان: سطح ایستابی, شبکه ی عصبی, تابع انتقال, دشت سرخون}
    Masoud Jalali *, Mohammad Kamangar, Robab Razmi
    Introduction

    In recent years, groundwater level has been descending due to climate change as well as method and use of them, especially in arid and semi - arid regions. According to the United Nations studies, Iran is considered one of the countries facing a shortage of water. In terms of climatic conditions, much of the country is but arid and semiarid regions. Water Table level control using observation wells are the main source of information to investigate the hydrological changes in these areas. Due to the recent drought and water shortages on a wide area of the country, the importance and sensitivity of groundwater management is increasing. Predicting the Water Table level using mathematical and statistical models can contribute significantly to proper planning and decisions to provide long - term water supply. In this study, the level of underground water using the gradient network and the transfer function of Tangent has been tried. Because of recent decades, neural network model studies show the high capability of this model in exploring the relationship between data and the recognition of patterns. Coppola and al (2003) investigated the possibility of predicting the level of 12 observation wells in different climatic situations, using artificial neural networks, in an area near the Temba Bay of Florida. Their results showed that, in modeling of the waters of the limestone and karstic areas, neural networks performed appropriate performance. diacplous et al. (2005)conducted an investigation to predict 18 months of groundwater level to predict an underground water level in the Mesrar Valley in Crete, Greece. The results indicate that the lonenberg algorithm is the most appropriate model.

    Methodology

    The recent multi - year drought in the province of hormozgan has resulted in the aggravation of drought conditions and the imposition of many problems on water resources in particular in the underground reservoirs in particular. Sarkhoon Plain plain is one of the areas close to the provincial capital of hormozgan. In this paper, prediction of the spatial model of the Water Table plain of Sarkhoon Plain plain using artificial neural network method and Hyperbolic rule is used to investigate the fault level of this model. in this study, the data of ten observation wells during the 25 - year period of 1990 - 1387 to 1392 - 1392 of the regional water organization of hormozgan province have been used. Artificial neural networks are one of the computational methods that utilize the learning process using called Nero, by adjusting the weights, using the input - output samples that are available. This model is subsequently used to estimate the output value for the new data. The weight of the hidden layer and the output layer are changed so that the error rate is min. This error is represented as follows.
    (1) E = 1 / 2 [(y - O) ^ 2]The following algorithm is illustrated in order to train the neural network.η > 0 and E > 0After implementation of neural network algorithms with different neurons in matlab software, the results of predicting the water height of Sarkhoon Plain with Hyperbolic transformation functions were obtained to determine the best spatial model of different levels of groundwater depth, the soil water models were used. in order to choose the best extrapolation method in this study, eight methods were used and finally the model that had the lowest fault was considered as optimal model.

    Results

    In this study, neural network model was implemented with different neurons to predict the level of groundwater level. After reviewing the evaluation criteria, the neural network model was selected as the top model with 40 neurons in the latent layer and with its extension to observation wells a spatial prediction model was obtained from groundwater level. The very low error and the high correlation of this model, from the results of the test data, shows its efficiency in predicting the level of groundwater level. Using this algorithm for data of ten wells, water height was predicted for twelve months of 1400 year. The results of this research have proved the superiority of neural networks to numerical models, This spatial model can be used to control the rate of water harvesting in different locations for sustainable water resources management, to determine the structure of input parameters of the neural network, the effects of drought periods and the effects of parameters such as rainfall, temperature and evapotranspiration in predicting groundwater levels.

    Discussion and conclusion

    In this study, neural network model was implemented with different neurons to predict the level of groundwater level. After reviewing the evaluation criteria, the neural network model was selected as the top model with 40 neurons in the latent layer and with its extension to observation wells, a spatial prediction model was obtained from groundwater level. The results of diacplous et al. (2005) showed the superiority of lonenberg neural network over other models that have sufficient layers of latent layers, while it seems that the use of multiple latent layers with multiple neurons in different models leads to error reduction and the choice of superior model selection. Toarimino, Chua
      and Sethi (2012) emphasize the short - term forecasts of groundwater fluctuations. They have used the parameters of precipitation, evaporation - evapotranspiration and water level in the neural network model. Despite the higher parameters, the absolute mean of their superior model error has been higher than the average model error of the present research. It is probably due to the low intensity of the hidden layer neurons as well as their short time ranges. The results of the study indicate that the use of a neural network algorithm with the number of static neurons cannot be a measure of the performance evaluation of a model. This spatial model can be used to control the rate of water Picked up in different locations for sustainable water resources management, to determine the structure of input parameters of the neural network, the effects of drought periods and the effects of parameters such as rainfall, temperature and evatranspiration in predicting groundwater levels.

    Keywords: Water Table, Neural Networks, transfer function, Sarkhoon Plain}
  • مرتضی نعمتی، محمود عبیات، حسن دانشیان
    هدف
    یکی از مسائلی که در امر مدیریت پسماند حائز اهمیت می باشد، مبحث مکان یابی محل دفن پس ماند و شیرابه های ناشی از آن در نواحی روستایی است. این شیرابه ها، موجب آلودگی آبخوان می شوند. ارزیابی آسیب پذیری آلودگی آبخوان، ابزاری توانمند جهت توصیف حفاظت از این چنین مناطقی است که متاثر از آلاینده ها هستند. بنابراین، هدف اصلی این پژوهش، مکان یابی محل دفن پسماند روستایی است. علاوه بر این، پژوهش حاضر به بررسی پتانسیل آسیب پذیری آلودگی آبخوان در مکان های پیشنهادی دفن پسماند با استفاده از مدل دراستیک در نقاط روستایی و تهیه نقشه پهنه بندی مناطق آسیب-پذیر می پردازد.
    روش
    روش این پژوهش از نوع اسنادی(کتابخانه ای)، میدانی و توصیفی-تحلیلی است. در این پژوهش، از مدل دراستیک جهت پهنه بندی آسیب پذیری آبخوان استفاده شده است. این مدل از ترکیب هفت پارامتر هیدروژئولوژیک موثر در انتقال آلودگی به آبخوان تشکیل شده است. این پارامترها در محیط نرم افزار GIS به صورت هفت لایه که تحلیل های لازم بر روی آن ها انجام می شود، ظاهر می گردند.
    یافته ها
    استفاده از مدل دراستیک، یک روش ارزشمند برای بررسی پتانسیل آلودگی آب های زیرزمینی توسط شیرابه حاصل از مکان دفن پسماند است. استفاده از مدل دراستیک و نرم افزار GIS، در انتخاب مکان دفن پسماند برای مسئولین محلی که مسئولیت مدیریت دفن پسماند روستایی را برعهده دارند، بسیار کاربردی می باشد در ادامه، با تهیه این نقشه ها در محیط GIS، می توان لایه های مختلف را تلفیق و نقشهه پهنه بندی آسیب پذیری را تهیه نمود. با توجه به نقشه آسیب پذیری آبخوان و با در نظر گرفتن میزان پتانسیل آلودگی آبخوان در قسمت های مختلف، می توان مکان مناسبی جهت دفن پسماند تعیین کرد. در شرایط حاضر، حدود 88 درصد سفره ها در وضعیت آسیب پذیری کم قرار گرفته که می توان با در نظر گرفتن این نواحی، مکانی مناسب جهت دفن پسماند تعیین کرد.
    محدودیت ها/ راهبردها: عدم دسترسی به اطلاعات جدید در بخش هایی از گزارش.
    اصالت و ارزش: در این مقاله سعی شده است تا با استفاده از مدل دراستیک بتوان مکانی مناسب جهت دفن پسماند روستایی مشخص شود.
    کلید واژگان: پسماند, دراستیک, هیدروژولوژیک, سطح ایستابی, تغذیه خالص, هدایت هیدرولیکی}
    Morteza Nemati, Mahmoud Abiyat, Hasan Daneshian
    1-
    Introduction
    One of the problems that is important in the waste management is the topic of waste rural landfill site selection and Latex resulting from that in rural areas. The Latex can be because groundwater pollution the contamination vulnerability and groundwater protection assessment has proved to be an effective tool for the delineation of protection zones in area affected by groundwater contamination. So the main objective of this study is waste rural landfill site selection, this study also deals with examining the application of DRASTIC model to determine Potential aquifer pollution in rural areas and zoning maps of vulnerable areas.
    2-THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: During everyday lives to resolve their variety of needs, people use materials found in nature in various ways. Always a part or most of the materials cannot be used which recalled unusable waste. The villagers produced the materials in a state of a variety of material, including liquid, solid or gas that is said the waste.
    If the solid materials are more than the other types of materials, they are called solid waste or garbage. All solid materials that are useless to their owners or the general public, are useless waste, waste and non-value of maintaining is called solid waste. In the context the aquifer vulnerability concept, the definition by the National Committee of America in 1993can be noted. This committee knows the groundwater vulnerability to pollution, the desire or possibility of reaching groundwater pollutants to a specified location on the system after they came into being in some places above the aquifer level. The term of the vulnerability in terms of conceptual in the hydrogeology are divided to two forms of intrinsic vulnerability and specific vulnerability. Inherent vulnerability Refers to the possibility of contamination in an area without considering specific pollutants. This type of vulnerability depends on the geological features, a region hydrology and hydrogeology and human activities and is independent of the nature of the pollutant. Methods such as Drastic and Sintacs are used to evaluate this type of vulnerability. The particularly vulnerable also refers to the vulnerability of groundwater to pollutants or a particular group of pollutants. That depends on the characteristics of the contaminant and its relation to various factors inherent vulnerability. DRASTIC model is an empirical model that the first time was raised in 1987 by the United States Environmental Protection Agency to assess the vulnerability of groundwater of the United States and is based on the concept of hydro geological situation. This model has been formed from the combination of seven hydro geological parameters affecting the groundwater contamination that includes water table depth, aquifer net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, unsaturated region and hydraulic. Drastic word also refers to the initials of the seven effective and main parameters in this method.
    3-
    Methodology
    The method of this study is the documentation (library), the field and analytic method. In this study, the DRASTIC model is used for aquifer vulnerability zoning. This model is formed from combining seven hydro geologic parameters. These parameters appear as seven layers in the GIS software that required analyses are performed on. Through preparation of these maps in GIS, we can combine different layers and prepare vulnerability zoning map.
    4-
    Discussion
    In order to create a healthy and clean environment for villagers, comprehensive management of the collection and disposal of waste is required. The Basis of health and hygiene in villages is their cleanliness, and collecting and wasting landfills is considered the first of its interest in the cleanliness that a proper system of waste management will pay to this issue. A correct cycle waste management includes elements responsible for reducing the production, gathering, transportation, processing, recycling and disposal of the production to burial place, that implementation of each of the above steps requires careful planning and design.
    One of the important points which should be considered in environmental design of landfill site is the management of leachate and preventing the underground water from being polluted. In this article, given that the drastic method is considered as one of most practical methods of rating in comparison with other methods to determine the potential vulnerability of aquifers to pollution, and uses more parameters in the preparation of model, it is used to assess the potential contamination of underground aquifers to leachate of the waste by the DRASTIC model.
    Conclusion
    Aquifer vulnerability zoning study area map which is obtained from the combination of raster map of seven DRASTIC parameters with respect to the weight of each parameter in GIS, shows that, that the parameters of the water table depth (D), and Nutrition Network (R) are the most effective ways in determining vulnerability. In this map, it has been found that about 88 percent of the desired area vulnerabilities are low and only 2% of the land (total), has had high and very high vulnerability. And 5% have moderate vulnerability and 6% of vulnerabilities are very low. Therefore, it can beside that most of leachate contamination of groundwater in the studied area is in the North and North West. Due to unfavorable disposal sites and how to landfill and by taking the final map (aquifer vulnerability) it is expected that with the support of managers and cooperative people of the area, collection and disposal practices are improved to prevent environmental pollution. Also, this method is useful as a tool for planners and designers for landfill site selection and evaluation of the vulnerability of groundwater aquifer by infiltration leachate from the waste.
    Keywords: Waste, DRASTIC, hydro geologic, water table, net recharge, hydraulic conductivity}
  • هاشم رستم زاده، اسماعیل اسدی، جعفر جعفرزاده *

    آب های زیرزمینی منبع بسیار مهمی برای تامین آب مصرفی در بخش های کشاورزی، صنعت و شرب دشت اردبیل است. از این رو، بررسی تغییرات منابع آب زیرزمینی در برنامه ریزی و مدیریت پایدار این منابع اهمیت فراوانی دارد. در این پژوهش، هدف سطح بندی وضعیت دهستان های موجود در دشت اردبیل به لحاظ بحران آب زیرزمینی و تغییرات آن طی سال های 1360 و 1391 است. بنابراین، از اطلاعات 39 چاه پیزومتری موجود در سطح دشت اردبیل (اخذ شده از سازمان آب منطقه ای) استفاده شد. با استفاده از تکنیک وزن دهی جمعی ساده ی فازی و روش های درون یابی، سطح ایستابی پیزومترها درون یابی و نحوه ی تغییرات سطح ایستابی آن ها طی این دو دوره نمایش داده شدند. سپس، نقشه ی نهایی فازی شده و وزن دار از دو نقشه ی سال 60 و سال 91 تهیه گردید. نتایج تحلیل، کاهش تقریبا 47 درصدی سطح ایستابی را در سال 1391 نسبت به سال 1360 نشان می دهد. سرانجام، با استفاده از اطلاعات به دست آمده می توان گفت که دهستان های شرقی، ویلکیج مرکزی و فولادلوی شمالی بیشترین تغییرات را به لحاظ افت سطح آب زیرزمینی داشته اند که قسمت شرق و جنوب شرق دشت را شامل می شوند. همچنین، دهستان های شمالی دشت نیز به سمت بحران پیش می روند که، با توجه به نقشه ی سطح کشت و تراکم چاه عمیق، برداشت بیش از حد از منابع آب زیرزمینی را در این ناحیه می توان عامل اصلی بحران قلمداد کرد.

    کلید واژگان: تصمیم گیری چند معیاری فازی, آب زیرزمینی, سطح ایستابی, تحلیل فضایی, دشت اردبیل}
    Hashem Rostamzadeh, Esmaeil Asadi, Jafar Jararzadeh

    Groundwater resources are important sources for the supply of water in agriculture, industry and drinking in Ardabil plain, therefore underground water resources planning and sustainable management of these resources are important. The purpose of this study is grading the villages in the plain of Ardabil in underground water crisis and changes during the years 1360-1391. The information obtained from 39 wells, piezometers in plain of Ardabil. Using simple techniques and fuzzy cumulative weighting and interpolation methods, the piezometers interpolation of shallow water table and how it changes during the period is showd.

    Introduction

    Groundwater is one of the main sources of drinking water supply for many people around the world, especially in rural areas. Groundwater can be contaminated by natural or human activities are numerous. All activities including residential, municipal, commercial, industrial and agriculture can affect groundwater quality. Groundwater contamination can result, such as the loss of a source of water supply, high cost of clearing the high cost of alternative water supply or cause potential health problems. Given the importance of determining the results of the plains of the country, the aim of this study was to determine changes in aquifer storage of Ardabil using statistics and analysis on multi-criteria decision-making and evaluation of groundwater is a crisis situation.
    Data and

    Methods

    In this study, the data of piezometers wells in of Ardabil plain scattered through the city of Ardabil Regional Water Authority have been prepared. Also, the surface layers and point to the plains of Ardabil, political divisions and the location of wells, piezometers villages for final maps have been used. The data of deep wells, as well as cultivation of four major product with a high water requirement of wheat, barley, potatoes and forage to determine the relationship between ground water and water harvesting has been a drop in water table.
    The study area: Plain study area is located in the north-west of Iran in Ardabil province (Figure 2 and Figure 3). The average height is about 1360 meters above sea level It covers an area of approximately 820 square kilometers and is located in the Gharasoo watershed.
    Inverse Distance Weight;
    Global Polynomial Interpolation;
    Local Polynomial Interpolation;
    Radial Basis Functions;
    Straight Ranking;
    Fuzzy Normalized;
    Fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making;
    FSAW.
    The first step is to evaluate each process and required hydrological data collection, and the coordinatingits location. The geostatistical methods of IDW, GPI, LPI, and RBF in the ArcGIS software were used for interpolating all existing data and a drop in water table in the area of standards for grades 10 class (raster) within restricted fields of Ardebil were determined.
    Finally, using simple collective weight, weight-bearing layers and layers of loss data water table for the years 60 and 90 is obtained. To get the final map of water table drops, the two layers are deducted and the final map of Ardabil plain water table drop that phase is obtained.
    Analysis showed the reduction of water table almost 47 percent in 1391 compared to 1360. As can be seen in Figures 12 and 13, maximum of 45 meters water table wells, piezometers in 1360 to more than 70 m in 1390 has come to reveal the deterioration of the aquifer Ardabil.
    Pholadloo_e_Shomali district with the highest concentration of deep wells in the near future to continue the removal of existing deep wells, groundwater resources will go into sharp decline.
    Sharghi Village goes to the crisis and in the meantime, the central Vilkij district includes the eastern part of the plain, the drop in water table aquifer at greatest risk to the two villages in East and Central Vilkij.
    • Due to the limitations of traditional agricultural development potential ground water;
    • Increase the efficiency of irrigation, changing crop patterns of water needed to fill low-power consumption;
    • Efficient use of water resources and prevent unauthorized digging deep wells to exploit the nutritional front, especially in the East and Southeast plains.

    Keywords: fuzzy multi, criteria decision, groundwater, water table, spatial analysis, Ardabil plain}
  • دایوش یاراحمدی*
    دریاچه ارومیه از مهم ترین اکوسیستم های آبی ایران است که تغییر در آن، تاثیرات گسترده ای در وضعیت اقلیمی، اقتصادی اجتماعی و هیدرولوژی خواهد گذاشت. برای بررسی ارتباط نوسان های سطح آب دریاچه ارومیه با تغییرات دما، بارش، سطح ایستابی و دبی رودخانه ها، سری های زمانی متغیرهای مذکور طی دوره آماری 2010- 1981جمع آوری و تنظیم شد. همگنی و تصادفی بودن داده ها به کمک آزمون ناپارامتریک ران تست مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. برای بررسی روند تغییرات متغیرها و میزان تاثیرگذاری متغیرهای مستقل بر متغیر وابسته (سطح آب دریاچه ارومیه)، از روش های ناپارامتری من کندال و پارامتری ضریب همبستگی پیرسون و تحلیل رگرسیون استفاده شد. نتایج نشان می دهد که کمابیش30 درصد از تغییرات سطح آب دریاچه با متغیرهای دما و بارش توجیه می شود. مدل های هیدرولوژی مشخص می کنند که 42 درصد از نوسانات سطح آب دریاچه، ناشی از تغییرات دبی رودخانه های منطقه و سطح ایستابی آبهای زیرزمینی است و افزایش دما بیشتر از کاهش بارندگی در افت سطح آب دریاچه ارومیه موثر است. این مطالعه نشان داد که جهش و روند افزایشی دما از سال 1993، کاهش بارش و دبی رودخانه ها از سال 1994، روند افزایشی ارتفاع سطح ایستابی و روند کاهشی سطح آب دریاچه ارومیه با تاخیر چهار ساله، از سال 1998 آغاز شده است.
    کلید واژگان: بارش, دبی, دریاچه ارومیه, دما, سطح ایستابی}
    Dariush Yarahmadi*
    Introduction
    Lake Urmia, at the northwestern tip of Iran, is one of the largest permanent hyper saline lakes in the world and the largest lake in the Middle East. The lake is located between Eastern Azerbaijan and Western Azerbaijan, west of the southern portion of the similarly shaped Caspian Sea. It extends as much as 140km from north to south and is as wide as 85km from east to west during high water level periods. Because of being located in a dry and semi-dry region, this region doesn’t have suitable water resources comparing with global average water resources. Drought, climatic fluctuations, and shortage and disorder of rainfall cause many problems with regard to food and water for people who live in this region. Urmia lake is also one the most important and the largest aquatic ecosystems of Iran. The systemic and chain changes in the lake will lead to great effects on the climate and economic, social and hydrology conditions. Oscillations of the lake water levels and volume in recent years have attracted many opinions and created apprehensions.
    Methodology
    Groundwater data, meteorological precipitation and temperature data were obtained from Urmia station of Meteorology Organization for the period from 1981 to 2010. Then time series were formed for temperature and precipitation in the form of annual, seasonal, and monthly files. The time series of temperature, precipitation, rivers discharges, and water table levels and oscillations of the lake water level were collected and adjusted for the periods 1981-20. To inform homogeneity and randomness of data and possibility of any trends in the time series, thenonparametric test was used. In this study, precipitation, river discharges and water tables and temperatures were assessed as the independent variable and the water level as the dependent variable. After reviewing the different parametric and nonparametric tests on the data in this study, we eventually used a multivariable regression parametric test (Y=a+b1x1+b2x2) for temperature and precipitation and these tests ultimately showed the ability to cover the analysis of data and review of this study. To determine the direction of the trend, type and time of changes based on a Man Kendall graphical and statistical test, the following formulas were used:
    Results And Discussion
    In this study, the relationship between climatic factors and their effects on the hydrological conditions such as the river discharge, water level of Urmia Lake and wells water table were studied. For presence or absence of relationship between them, the Pearson correlation coefficient was used. The highest correlation between the water table and lake water level was 0.71 which is significant at the level of 0.05. Among the four effective independent variables, the lowest correlation was observed between climate change and the water level of the lake. The coefficient for the river discharge and the water table was, respectively, 0.72 and -0.71. The Pearson correlation test shows that linear gradient during the period is significant with time increasing. The results indicate that the relationship between the precipitation and water level is negative and temperature and the water table is positive. The regression gradient line at the scatter plot shows that the precipitation increase raises the water level. The highest annual decreasing rainfall is -2.56. Increasing temperatures and declining rainfall, snowfall reduction, increasing evapotranspiration and reducing the water as input decreased the water level of the lake. As a result, the lake water level trend was decreasing 0.18 mm in each year. The model and the regression analysis were calculated due to the delayed effects of climate and hydrological factors interference in each other. The coefficient determination indicates that other factors remain constant; approximately 0.30 of the dispersion of the observed changes in the lake water level is justified by temperature and precipitation variations. If we assume that hydrology parameters are constant, we can say that lake water level increases 0.005 meters per one mm rainfall and the lake water increases 1.672 meter per one cm river discharge.
    Conclusion
    By designing a hydrology model, it was determined that 42 percent of water level fluctuations is due to changes in the river discharge of the region and groundwater and water table. By examining regression models, we find that changes in hydrological parameters that are related to human factors rather than climatic parameters have the most influential effects on the lake water level fluctuations. The temperature increase affected the lake water level dropping more than the rainfall decrease. By examining Man-Kendall graphics, we characterized that leaping in temperature started in 1993. Precipitation and discharge decreasedin1993-1994 and this caused the rise of the trend water table and reducing of water level in Urmia Lake, happened with a four-year delay which started from 1998.
    Keywords: Discharge, Precipitation, Temperature, Urmia Lake, Water Table}
  • حسین محمدی*، علی اکبر شمسی پور

    مدیریت منابع آب در دوره های خشک و خشکسالی ها نیازمند شناخت و کاربرد روش ها و راهکارهایمناسب است . از آن جا که خشکسالی به صورت یک مجموعه عوامل و متغیرهای مرتبط به هم اقلیمی(سیستم اقلیم) در محیط طبیعی و انسانی تاثیر می گذارد، مطالعه جزیی و مجزای متغیرهای اقلیمینتیجه متقن و قابل اعتمادی از شرایط حاکم ارایه نمی دهد.جهت بررسی میزان نقش خشکسالی ها در منابع آب زیرزمینی دشت های شمال همدان متغیرهایاقلیمی و هیدرولوژی آب های سطحی به عنوان متغیر مستقل جهت تعیین میزان همبستگی با سطح ایستایی دشت ها (متغیر وابسته) در مقیاس ماهانه در طی 17 سال 1379-1363 مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. روش مطالعه بر رگرسیو ن چند متغیره متمرکز گردید که نتایج مناسب تری ارایه می دهد.در نتیجه ، آثار ناهنجاری های اقلیمی و هیدرولوژیکی در افت سطح ایستابی دشت ها 42 درصدهمبستگی را بین متغیرهای اقلیمی مستقل با شدت افت نشان داد.در ارزیابی مکانی بحران افت سطح ایستابی تحت تاثیر خشکسالی از توانایی تحلیل های مکانی و فضایی GIS بهره گرفته شد و نتایج داده های نقطه ای به اطلاعات منطقه ای تبدیل گردید و شدت افت در سطح دشت های مورد مطالعه منطقه بندی گردید که دشت بهار دارای شدیدترین افتو مناطق حاشیه دشت ها در محل اتصال به ارتفاعات از کم ترین مقادیر افت برخوردار بودند.

    کلید واژگان: خشکسالی, رگرسیون چند متغیره GIS تحلیل آماری چند متغیره, سطح ایستابی}
    H Mohammadi *, A.A Shamsipoor

    Water Resources management require knowledge, applied methods and suitable policyin wet and drought periods.Climatic and Hydrological variables of running waters as independent variablehave been considered for determining Relationship with planes water table (dependentvariable) in Hamadan planes water ground Resources for drought effect in monthlyscale during 1983-1999 years. The study method has been concentrated on multipleregression because of representing suitable result. As a result climatic and hydrologicabnormal effects show 42 percent water table deficits planes relationship betweenclimatic independents variables with decreasing severity. It was used GIS spatialability analytical for water table critical deficits assessment. It has been regionalizedthe water table deficits intensity planes, hence Bahar plane has the most deficitsintensity but the surrounding planes contact with heights have the most less amount.

    Keywords: Drought, Multiple Regression, Multiple Statistics Analytic, water table}
نکته
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