جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « روش بلانچارد » در نشریات گروه « اقتصاد »

Temporary and permanent income shocks are the most important determinants of household’s consumption. According to Friedman's permanent income hypothesis, household consumption always responds to permanent income shock more than temporary shocks. Given that these two components shock separately are unobservable, in this paper we use Blanchard-Quah method to decompose the income shocks into temporary and permanent and then by applying Structural Vector Auto-regression model to identify the effect of that two shock components on household’s consumption in Iran during the 1974-2014 years. The results from the estimated model confirm the validity of the PIH in Iran. So that household consumption almost entirely explained by permanent shocks income. But it does not show sensitivity to temporary shocks.

Energy consumption in various sectors of Iran economy is very significant, hence the necessity of reducing energy consumption in the economy considerrable. Improvement of total factor productivity can lead to lower production inputs as well as energy consumption. The aim of the present study is to survey the productivity shock affect on intensity of energy consumption during 1974-2010 in Iran. For this purpose, productivity shocks were separated to components of temporary and permanent with using Blanchard-Quah method. Then, the effect of temporary and permanent shocks of productivity on energy intensity was studied using structural vector autoregressive model. The results of model estimation show that temporary shocks of productivity are the main source of short-term changes in energy intensity. In addition, the permanent shocks of productivity will lead to reducing energy intensity in the long-run. Hence, to reduce energy consumption in Iran, total factor productivity growth should be improved.