جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « هدفمندسازی یارانه‎ها » در نشریات گروه « اقتصاد »

 In order to target the limited budgets of poverty alleviation programs and increase their efficiency, a wide range of targeting methods including means testing, proxy means testing, categorical targeting, geographical targeting, self-targeting, and community-based targeting has been used  in developing countries (Coady, Grosh and Hoddinott, 2004). However, targeting in Iran, in the best case, has been based on the proxy means testing. Kidd and Wylde (2011) have criticized this method due to lack of transparency and poor predictions in the field of identifying the poor. The main purpose of this article is to compare the different economic and social characteristics of Iran’s rural households with the aim of finding the best characteristics in order to target subsidies in Iran. In this context, the following questions are raised: In a situation where accurate information about household income or expenses is not available, how should households be prioritized to receive subsidies based on their characteristics? How much cash subsidy should each household receive in order to reduce the aggregate poverty? To answer these questions, by following, Kanbur (1987), Ravallion and Chao (1989), Elbers, Fujii, Lanjouw, Özler and Yin (2007), Glewwe (1992) and Araar and Luca (2019), I use a new numerical algorithm, which acts as optimal poverty group targeting. This method is conceived to find the optimal group transfers that allow the largest possible reduction in any additive poverty indexes, like the Foster, Greer, Thorbecke (FGT) class of poverty indexes.

This article uses a new numerical algorithm, which acts as optimal poverty group targeting. This method was first presented by Kanbur (1987), which focused on the theoretical rules of optimization. Then, based on the theoretical findings of Kanbur (1987), Ravallion and Chao (1989) have proposed numerical method that maximizes the reduction in the FGT (α=2)  index by group transfers, subject to a fixed budget. After that, Glewwe (1992) improved it theoretically, and finally, Araar and Luca (2019) proposed the method of optimal group targeting by modifying Glewwe (1992) method. In fact, the methodology of Glewwe (1992) is a generalization of Kanbor (1987) and Ravallion and Chua (1989) Method, but the mentioned methodologies focused on a subset of poverty indicators (e.g., squared poverty gap index) for which an analytical solution was possible. Contrarily, Araar and Luca (2019) proposed a new method, which is applicable to all additive poverty indices (such as the headcount or poverty gap rates and squared poverty gap indexes).This article uses income-expenditure data of rural households of Iran in 2020, and follows Araar and Luca (2019) methodology. In addition, to check the efficiency of this method, three indicators including the quality of targeting, inclusion and exclusion errors will be used.

In this article, economic and social characteristics of rural households in Iran were compared to targeted poverty alleviation programs. Based on the results, for the head count ratio, the targeting efficiency based on different household characteristics changes between 23.67 and 31.03 %, the population coverage rate changes between 38.93 and 100 %, and the sum of the inclusion and exclusion errors changes between 41.62 and 52.53%. Now, if the targeting is done based on the poverty gap index, the targeting efficiency will be between 42.18 and 48.02 %, the population coverage rate will be between 86.21 and 100 %, and the sum of the exclusion and inclusion errors will be between 46.96 and 52.53%. Finally, if the poverty severity index is used as the basis for targeting, the targeting efficiency will change between 53.99 and 59.51 %, the population coverage rate will change between 99.33 and 100 %, and the sum of the inclusion and exclusion errors will change between 48.92 and 52.53%. It is interesting to note that in targeting based on all three mentioned poverty indicators, the family size, number of members under 7 years old and the education of the household head are always the best characteristics for targeting poverty.

The main purpose of this article is to compare the different economic and social characteristics of rural households with the aim of identifying the best characteristics in order to targeting subsidies in Iran. According to the results of this article, the characteristic that should be taken into account in targeting is the family size, which the efficiency of targeting based on this characteristic is equal to 51.59% of targeting with complete information. The rate of exclusion and inclusion errors are zero and 52.53%, respectively. Finally, in the targeting based on the family size and squared poverty gap index, the population coverage rate is 100, which is very acceptable from the social point of view.  Paying attention to the changes in the poverty indices based on the household demographic characteristics is very important, because if the family size increases, the poverty indices grow strongly. As a result, the headcount, poverty gap and squared poverty gap indexes for families with six and more people become 2.5, 3.5 and 2.4 times the same index for households with 1-2 people, respectively.

Most countries in the world implement subsidy targeting in a way that can reduce their costs and bring great economic and financial benefits to their community. In Iran, the targeting of subsidies has been implemented in a new way since 2010. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of targeted subsidies on economic development and entrepreneurship in the country. The statistical population of the study includes 150 employees of the Subsidies Targeting Organization. Based on simple random sampling method and Cochran's formula, 108 people were selected as the sample size. Data analysis was performed using PLS software. The results obtained from the analysis of research data indicate that the targeting of subsidies has a positive and significant effect on the economic development of the country. Also, another result of the research showed that the targeting of subsidies has a positive and significant effect on the development of entrepreneurship in the country.

The enforcement of targeted subsidies Law as the most sensitive economic reform program, has had very different and unknown effects on various economic dimensions and it continues. this research evaluate the effects of this law enforcement on the changes of the economic structure of production in Iran. To achieve this purpose in this research, used the time series data during the period of 1996-2017, and econometric models with DVRM approach. In this approach is examined the effects of the enforcement of targeted subsidies Law on the economic structure of production, and share of different sectors included agriculture, industry & mine, services and oil sectors in gross domestic product. The results is indicated that, before the enforcement of targeted subsidies Law (1996-2009), the average share of production of agriculture, industry & mine, services and oil sectors was about 12, 22, 52, and 14 percentage respectively. Basically on this results, after the enforcement of this law (2010-2017), the share of production from GDP in agriculture and industry & mine sectors has decreased to 5 and 0.2 percentage and for services and oil sectors has increased to 4.2 and 0.1 percentage respectively.The results of statistical tests rejected this changes and imply that the enforcement of this law, hasn’t had a significant effect on the economic structure of production. Obviously, the analysis of the long-term effects of the enforcement of this law on the economic structure of production requires to pass the time, and access to wider time series data.

In most countries, one of the major economic policies is to subsidize a producer or consumer. On the other hand, some economists believe that supportive policies distort market prices and cost of production, and unduly allocate inputs and reduce social welfare in the long run. This research investigates the effect of targeting subsidies on the nonfood costs of rural households using the panel data in different provinces of the country during the period of 2008-2015. Provinces were divided into three categories: low and very low, medium, high and very high development. The results showed that in the low and very low, high and very high provinces, targeting of subsidies had a significant negative impact and the average income in all three groups had a significant positive impact on the nonfood costs of rural households. JEL Classification: C23, E64, R28

Importance of renewable-energy resources because of scarcity, greenhouse-gas emissions, and their fundamental roles in production and sustainable development, has made governments to reduce energy consumption and improving energy efficiency. In this regard, targeting subsidies rule was running in Iran since 2010. Since energy additionaly to labor and capital is one of the important inputs in production, running this rule with increasing energy price, affects manufacturing industries due to the type of energy and industry. In this research, the impacts of price liberalization on electricity efficiency have evaluated. Partial adjustment model, generalized method of moment and energy intensity measure are applied to this purpose. Data are collected from Statistical Center of Iran during 1995-2013. The research innovations are: using a partial adjustment model in evaluating efficiency, assessment whole industrial groups, and the period of research. The results show that in 95 percent level of confidence, the Iranian manufacturing industries are significantly flexible for changing the use of electricity. But the electricity efficiency has gotten worse after running the rule. In general, apposite of expectations, targeting subsidies rule has failed to improve electricity efficiency at least in short run.

One of the main approaches to achieve food security is redistribution measures such as the subsidy reform program with the aim of social justice and improved welfare of low-income groups. In this study, we analyzed the effect of the implementation of targeted subsidies program on food security in Iran during 2005-2012. A model of food security was estimated after calculating the adult’s energy intake through household’s consumption information. We found an inverse relationship between the subsidy reform program and food security among Iranian households. Due to this program, food prices increased and households’ real income decreased. The results of these changes are the increased cost of living and decreased share of income spent on food.

This study analyzes the effect of Aggregate Measurement of supportive policies on Urban Households’ Food Security Index in Iran by applying Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) for the period 1982 – 2012. In order to achieve this goal, Aggregate Households’ Food Security Index (AHFSI), Aggregate Measurement of Support (AMS), Inflation Rate and virtual variables for the targeted subsidy law period have been used. The results show that the Aggregate Measurement of Support has meaningful and positive effect on food security in both short-term and long-term. Also, the virtual variable for the targeted subsidy law period and inflation rate have a meaningful and negative effect on food security. Due to the fact that the targeted subsidy law has not have any positive impact on food production and consumption through the early years of its enactment, the agriculture sector in Iran, primarily requires a targeted support and accordingly calls for appropriate conditions for enactment of targeted subsidy law in order to mitigate its negative effects. Therefore, a constructive appraisal of supportive policies, with a view to developing agriculture sector, can increase the productive capacity and improve the marketing channels for agricultural products by providing security and encouraging investment in this sector; hence the improvement of food security in Iran.

The subject of this article is to assess Personal Income Distribution in I. R. Iran both in rural and urban areas using Gini coefficient and Atkinson index in the period of 2001- 2013. These two indices satisfy Dalton principles (principles about requirements of a good income distribution index) and comparing to other income distribution indices are more precise. Although Gini coefficient is the most common measure of income inequality، since it is highly sensitive to inequalities in the middle of the income spectrum، it may not be able to distinguish between two different income distributions. But the Atkinson index considering social welfare function into the measurement of income inequality allows for varying sensitivity to inequalities in different levels of the income distribution and it can be a complement to Gini coefficient. Results based on Gini and Atkinson show decreasing income inequality during the investigated period both in rural and urban areas. Income inequality in urban areas is less than rural areas and considering different income levels، the income inequality rises in both areas as the level of income increases. Since the year 2010، income inequality has been decreasing in both areas and there was a more sensible decrease in 2011 which could be due to performing the subsidy reform program and a payment of 455000 Rials per person to Iranian families since December 2010 (as Dalton''s third principle of equal payments suggests)

In order to study the effects of subsidies targeted plan on Iran agricultural sector، a regional agricultural sector model is made. For this purpose، Iran is divided into 9 equal radar regions agro-climatologically. Then agricultural sector is modeled within 14 commodity groups and 23 production activities using positive mathematical programming (PMP) method and applying generalized maximum entropy (GME) approach. The results indicate that making subsidies targeted by increasing prices of inputs (irrigation water، fertility، pesticide and machinery)، escalating energy prices for poultry and dairy farms and raising transportation cost، leads to decrease total surplus of agricultural sector، decrease in many crop and livestock activity levels in different regions، increase in prices، decrease in consumption and exports and increase in imports of some agricultural products. According to the results، if subsidies targeted policy is mixed with support payments to producers، dependent on amount of support payment، the social surplus of agricultural sector may decrease or increase. A support payment equal to 25 percent of production costs can compensate losses of producers due to targeted subsidies، transmit loss of social welfare to zero and decrease volatility of economic variables such as activity levels، price and quantity of consumption of commodity groups.

In this research a model has been designed for predicting Iran’s electricity annual consumption based on economic criteria and by means of artificial neural networks. Moreover, the effect of implementing targeted subsidies plan on annual electricity consumption of Iran has been studied. In such a way that Narx neural network takes Iran population and GDP variables as input and generates Iran annual electricity consumption as output. For testing and teaching the designed network, data related to the years 1362 to 1389 were collected and the last 4 years data has been collected for testing the network performance. For studying the accuracy degree of designed network, Perceptron neural network model and Arima time series model also were designed .And comparison of results shows that Narx neural network is more powerful in predicting Iran electricity consumption. Considering the key factors affecting electricity consumption in this model, Iran electricity consumption in the years before implementing the targeted subsidies could be predicted with a high accuracy and therefore the amount of electricity consumption in Iran during the year 1390, 91 and 92 shows the effect of subsidies targeting plan on Iran electricity consumption in first year of implementing it. The tangible decrease in electricity consumption in that year in comparison to designed model is a bare witness for this effect. Findings of research shows that according to Narx neural network and the graduate effect of time on it ,this model could be used for predicting the annual consumption of electricity inside the country.

An increase in the energy price (due to the targeted subsidies plan) impacts on theexchequer system of the municipalities in terms of the income and the expenses. As faras the income of municipality is concerned, the income from the construction section,as the most important factor in the municipality income, would be reduced. Based onthe calculations, the enforcement of targeted subsidies law would reduce the incomefrom construction section to an amount equal to 5.5 thousand billion Rials (around 550million dollars) provided that no change is made in other factors. Further, in case the useof energy does not have any change (and is the same as the year 1388), the municipalityincome from the VAT Act would have a 1.4-thousand-billion-Rial increase. The resultsof the research indicate that a sharp rise in energy price would cause an 855-, 186-,and 2470-billion Rial increase in personnel expenses, subway plan expenses, andconstruction expenses, respectively. In total, the municipality expenses, for the verythree items, would increase to an amount equal to 3.5 thousand billion Rials (around350 million dollars), 70 percent of which is related to construction expenses. Therefore,the municipality of Tehran, by taking into account just two sources of income andthree expenses items, would face a 7.6 thousand billion Rial budget deficit (around760 million dollars) which comprises 19 percent of the cash budget and 10.1 percentof the total budget of the municipality of Tehran. In case the results are generalizedto all expenses and income items of the municipality of Tehran, the expense effect ofthe targeted subsidies would amount to 23.6 thousand billion Rials (around 2.4 billiondollars) which comprises 32.17 percent of the total budget and 44.3 percent of the cashbudget of the municipality of Tehran.

In all countries, the government makes efforts to alleviate or eradicate privationsin the country via promoting social welfare and creating new employment in theunderprivileged areas. In order to determine the extent of the privation at differentlevels – national, regional, urban, and local – different methods could be devisedand applied each of which utilizes different indices. However, due to the differencebetween developed and developing countries, similar methods cannot be used in allcountries. Thus, it seems necessary to devise new indices to investigate and evaluatethe extent of the privation at different levels. In this article, the privation status in thecountry, between the urban and rural communities, has been investigated via using anew index. The comparison between the outputs produced by the index indicates thatthe devised index offers accurate results; hence, it can be used to evaluate the privationextent at regional level.

Social welfare especially the social welfare of low income groups has always been important for governments, hence, subsidies are paid on different goods to decrease the prices and as a result, increase purchasing power. However, because of not being targeted, the relatively rich benefit from subsidies more than the poor. Therefore it seems to be necessary to design self-targeted safety-net programs. This research aims at investigating the welfare consequences of self-targeted subsidies and to answer this question: what is the impact of transferring one unit of subsidies paid on subsidized goods mostly used by the rich to non-subsidized goods mostly used by the poor on welfare-improving? For this purpose, we calculated the change in social welfare caused by self-targeted subsidies. The results show that self-targeted subsidies increase social welfare. The extent of this increase is negatively related to inequality aversion parameter, while positively related to the share of non-subsidized goods in low income deciles budget.

The cash transfer program is one of various types of the safety net programs that are used in many countries as protective programs. In this paper with purpose of "investigation and evaluation of the subsidy payment methods in cash format to apply this compensatory program to redistribute released sources of subsidy targeting plan in Iran", in addition to survey of cash transfer programs theory, advantages and disadvantages of such programs in comparison with conditional cash transfer programs have been investigated.The results of studying of theoretical principles and the experience of other countries in using of cash transfer programs, indicate that the main goal of these programs isnt necessarily to pay cash money to the people, but according to the literature of these programs, they include certain types of payments, such as pension, unemployment insurance, social assistance, various payments to disabled people and retirement insurance. Therefore, it seems that the definition and the concept used in "subsidy targeting law" for "subsidy cash payments" in Iran, has essential differences with whatever that used in other countries. Maybe these different points of view happened for the negligence and unskillful ness of critics and scholars involved in preparing the theoretical principles of this bill. Therefore, it is expected that as long as the policy makers and planners view in redistributing subsidy cash payment doesnt modified, there is not better eventuality than the general subsidy system (current situation).