جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "الگوی خودرگرسیون برداری ساختاری" در نشریات گروه "اقتصاد"

Regardless of different theoretical views regarding the impact of monetary policies on the economy, these policies are currently considered tools to influence variables and the structure of the economy. The main objectives of implementing such economic policies, similar to other policy instruments, are to control adverse economic fluctuations, establish relative stability in price levels, and maintain production within its optimal path. With such goals in mind, it is clear that following the detection of any adverse economic fluctuation, monetary instruments are one of the options available to policymakers to control such fluctuations.On the other hand, academic literature on monetary policies and the difference in adopting monetary instruments in response to business cycles disregard the distinction among countries (for instance based on their level of development etc.). The accepted advice in the economic literature is that countries should adopt counter-cyclical monetary policies. In other words, in times of economic prosperity, it is recommended that monetary authorities eliminate inflation by increasing interest rates and reducing interest rates in times of economic recession to stimulate production to return to its sustainable path. This recommendation is attributed to the study by Wexel (1907). Despite all the developments in the field of monetary theories in the last century, this recommendation has remained unchallenged and was part of Chicago's plan that emerged from the Great Depression of 1933. Keynesian IS and LM models support counter-cyclical monetary policies. However, Fisher (1977) and Phelps and Taylor (1977) (in the presence of rational expectation), along with Keynesians Woodford (2001) and Giannoni and Woodford (2002), opposed monetary policies as a cycle to stabilizean  active economy and recommend it.

Note that this emphatic policy recommendation does not consider any specific classification among countries. However, there is evidence that countries have adopted monetary instruments differently in response to similar business cycles, depending on their level of development (or other economic indicators). In other words, there are a number of empirical studies indicating that in the presence of business cycles, developed countries have implemented counter-cyclical (or often cycle-independent) monetary policies, while developing ones have adopted this approach and implemented pro-cyclical monetary policies.In this regard, the present study investigates the cyclical situation of monetary and fiscal policies in Iran. To achieve this goal, a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model with three variables has been estimated using data derived from 1352 to 1396.

The results of the study show that correlation coefficient between fiscal and monetary structural movements are very low and approximated to zero. T test show that none of these coefficients had any statistical difference with zero. These findings show that proxies(equipments) for fiscal and monetary policy in Iran are changing independent of business cycles.

The results from model estimation confirm that monetary and fiscal policies in Iran demonstrate a behavior independent of the cycles.The results also show that these policies, despite the independent nature of the cycle, have the potential for economic stabilization.

Monetary and financial affiliation, always closely linked to oil sector in Iran (as an oil exporter country) has made Monetary Policy a remarkable challenge to the economic policy- makers. In fact, according to expected statistics, a considerable amount of budget is provided by currency sources from oil export and withdrawal from foreign exchange reserve account by which Central Bank inevitably buys currency resulting to increase monetary base. Lack of possibility of mathematical anticipation and uncertainty of oil revenues to finance is one of the challenges monetary authorities encounter in Iran. Accordingly, mathematical programing for economic stability requires identifying the effect of Monetary Policy based on oil revenue. Examination of the effect of Monetary Policy in economics started with the theory of '' the amount of money''. Economic experts are of different viewpoints on the impact of Monetary Policy on Marco variables. According to theoretical and experimental literature, Monetary Policy makes an outstanding difference on Marco variables. On the other hand such policies are extinguished by oil revenue leading to more obscurity.

Theoretical framework:

According to the existing literature, the way of applying Monetary Policy is different in oil exporter and importer countries. when oil price rises, Central bank, In order to control inflation, increases the interest rate, and Monetary Policy acts as a contraction in oil importer countries. However, in oil exporter countries, when oil price rises, currency revenues, mainly in the hands of the government, increases, and the government, by converting part of oil dollars to domestic currency, intentionally or unintentionally, increases the amount of money to provide its expenses. So, in exporter countries like Iran, oil revenues directly affect economic Macro variables. They, also, indirectly affect through Monetary Policy.

The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of monetary policy on economic Marco variables due to oil revenues. This study has, also, used interest rate variable, bank facilities, and legal reserve rate on monetary policy. Such variables have been used, indoors or outdoors, in different economic studies. Basically, in this study, the economic Marco variables are also economic growth and inflation rate respectively due to the limited access to information and also other existing limitations. To measure the economic growth rate, GDP growth rate at a fixed price has been used. The inflation rate resulted from consumer price index growth rate (CPI). In this study, using STATA software, the variables have been used from the years 1978 to 2017.

The results of this study have shown that the rise in bank interest rate has run down the economic growth rate at least up to two years after applying the shock. It drifted towards zero afterwards. With the rise in bank interest rate growth, the cost of financing has been decimated resulting to investment reduction. On the other hand, with the rise in bank interest rate, the inflation rate has been reduced. It is obvious shock standard deviation in bank facilities interest rate has, up to three periods after applying the shock, left positive impact on inflation rate, and the impact has been reduced to zero. Economic growth reveals like bank facilities rate, such a variable has a negative impact on Iran's economic growth. The rise in legal reserve rate has been one period after applying the shock up to zero in the second period. On the other hand, the impact of legal reserve rate has been positive on inflation rate. It has been shown that shock standard deviation reduces inflation rate in legal reserve rate. The rise in oil revenues leads the rise in economic growth rate, thus, reduced to zero up to two periods after applying the shock. With increasing oil revenues, by the government's expenses increase as well. Thus, it leads to the rise in demand, and also, economic growth indoors.

Conclusions & Suggestions:

Based on the results, implementation of monetary policy in Iran has negative effect on economic growth, which is also consistent with the Iran Economy, so policymakers must use another policy for stimulating the economic growth. Put on the agenda.

Given the importance of the oil sector in the economy and its impact on the revenues of the oil sector as part of the external balance, The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of global real price of oil on the international level. Based on theoretical, world oil prices of endogenous factors such as oil supply and demand and the whole world demand affected and  A necessary condition to obtain this effect, the use of these exogenous factors is the economic model. This study during the period 1973-2007 using the structural vector regression model and vector regression model shows the effect of oil price shocks on the external balance of the country's. The results show that oil shocks have a weak direct effect on the balance of foreign, but strong indirect effect on the external balance and This is due to the oil and non-oil balance. In various oil shock, 48% and 42% of non-oil balances justify fluctuations of other variables foreign(Maximum attachment), so trade balance is very important for external imbalances.