جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « شوک نفتی » در نشریات گروه « اقتصاد »

Oil shocks, due to economic sanctions and income restrictions, have cost the government dearly in recent years, and it is important to examine their effects, especially in terms of declining tax revenues. Unfortunately, the imposition of various international sanctions on Iran in recent years and declining oil revenues due to declining oil exports on the one hand, as well as declining crude oil prices globally, have had devastating effects on macroeconomic variables such as taxes, government spending and economic growth. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of oil shocks on Iran's tax revenues using the Bayesian self-regression (BVAR) method and considering the variables of the total tax, indirect tax, direct tax, government expenditure, and GDP during the years 1991-2019. The results of the study of instantaneous reaction and analysis of variance functions show that oil revenue shocks, at a declining rate, have a positive effect on direct and indirect tax revenues, indicating the government's tendency to rely on tax revenues and expand tax bases. With declining oil revenues, if tax bases are not strengthened, tax revenues will fall and, assuming other conditions remain stable, will lead to a larger government budget deficit. The results indicate that the response of direct and indirect taxes to oil shocks is significant but small, that shows the poor performance of the country's tax system in response to oil developments. Therefore any decline in oil revenues, in addition to reducing tax revenues, also leads to a decrease in GDP and other government revenues; therefore, to increase tax revenues, fundamental measures and changes must be taken and strengthened within the government structure

The 2007 financial crisis clearly demonstrate the role of capital assets in the emergence of economic fluctuations and business cycles. Physical assets with a dual role as a factor in production and use as collateral to obtain loans from the banking system in two separate channels affect the real sector of the economy and lead to intensification of product fluctuations and business cycles. Emprical evidence of Iran’s economy indicates that the price of capital assets has been rising and fluctuating over time for various reasons, the most important of which are the role of oil revenues and related shocks. Accordingly, with regard to the collateral effect channel, there is an expectation that by creating a positive oil shock and increasing oil revenues, government spending and, consequently, liquidity, the price of private equity assets, as a acceptable collateral for the banking system, will increase. This issue will lead to an increase in the amount of loans received by the private sector, the volume of investment and output. For this purpose, this study has examined this important issue using data related to the period of 1966- 2017 of the Iranian economy and the model of structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR). The results of the model confirm the effect of collateral in short periods. Therefore, it is suggested that if the policymaker seeks to stabilize the product in the short term, then it is necessary to adopt an appropriate countercyclical policy on how to pay loans to the private sector in order to control the volume of private sector investment and stabilize the output.

This study seeks to examine the impact of market shocks and economic sanctions on production and value added in the industrial sector, one of the most important sectors of the economy, during period of recession and boom. For this purpose, we examine the effect of oil shocks, currency fluctuations and economic sanctions on the added value of the industrial sector during the recession and boom period, from 1974 to 2016. The results of Markov model estimation imply that the effects of shocks are asymmetric. Positive oil shocks and currency fluctuations have positive effect on value added industrial sector during the boom period and have negative effect during the recession. The results show that if Iran's economy is booming at time t, market shocks and economic sanctions will remain in the same position with a probability of 0.3864%, and if the Iranian economy If t + 1 is in a recession, it is likely to remain at 0.6791% at t + 1. While according to results of estimating the number of years in each diet, the number of prosperity years was lower than the recession period (27 recession periods vs. 14 prosperity periods) and the rate of durability was more during the recession. Another interesting point is that Inventory of capital, inflation of production, consumption of private sector and employment during the recession had a negative relationship with the added value of industry.So, about Iran economy, it seems that establishing an appropriate theoretical relationship between these important variables influenced more by fundamental changes in Political and economic conditions than government economic policies. Thus, although the role of macroeconomic policies, including monetary and fiscal policies, is essential for the growth of value added production but also providing economic security and a secure environment for investment, expansion and diversifying financial markets and institutions, and More productive engagement with the world and major trading partners, moving towards an open economy and the use of foreign investment and developing capital market regulations with the aim of transparency and stability to increase savings and investment is essential and could provide the basis for Increasing production in the manufacturing sector.

IF the economy is exposed to Continuous and unexpected Expansionary Monetary Policy, the exchange rate will exceed its long-run value in the short run and returns to that level again in the long-run, This is a short- run phenomenon, Stem from a lack of uniform of Adjustment speed in commodity and asset markets. Considering the destructive and harmful effects of exchange rate overshooting in the economy. In this study, the causes of the formation and effective factors on exchange rate overshooting of Iran & Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries using annual time series data for mentioned countries according to published statistics of World Bank, IMF and Federal Reserve by pooled model in the period 1990-2016 were investigated. Among the factors affecting exchange rate overshooting, there are variables of balance of payment, fiscal policy (government expenditures), monetary shock and oil shock which are examined in detail. In order to estimate effect of oil shock in countries surveyed, using dummy variable, the oil exporting and importing countries are divided. The results indicate a positive and significant effect of variables of fiscal policy (government expenditure), monetary shock expectations, oil shock in oil importing countries and a negative and significant effect of oil shock in oil exporting countries and balance of payments. That means, more government expenses, balance of payments deficit, monetary shock expectations and oil shock in oil importing countries will make exchange rate to overshoot or money depreciation of the country's national currency. While, oil price shock in oil exporting countries decreases exchange rate overshooting or money appreciation of the country's national currency which sign of all coefficients are fully justified according to theoretical basis of the economy.

In this paper, we evaluate the effect of inflation targeting policy in absorption and reduce the negative impacts of oil shocks on foreign trade. In this regard, in order to evaluate the impact of this policy on the economy of Iran, we used a modified New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework for a small open economy. We estimate the model using Bayesian approach over the period 1989-2014. The results of the simulation model variables indicate that inflation targeting policy in relation to the failure to adopt this policy, has been reduced the severity and duration of negative effects of oil revenues shock. This policy has been quite successful in controlling inflation and the severity of the decline in exports and increase in imports is reduced in case of shock. Also, in the inflation targeting regime, the decline in non-oil production and total production after the shock has been less severe.

With regard to the importance of oil price changes in Iran’s oil revenues as an oil exporter and its effects on it's economy, the aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of the oil shocks on the changes of the most important index of the Stock Exchange in Iran called the total price index.
Investigating the price of shares in stock exchange and studying and controlling the investment market, which is an important part of financial markets in every country, play an important role in policy making and applying macro-economic policies. Controlling available savings and liquidity and conducting them towards different parts of national economics, this market leads to the investigation and transmission of investment to economic institutions and thereby providing future perspectives of economic firms. Given the fact during a short period of time, shock and the intensity of the movement of liquidity and capital of both the private sector and people of society in transfering from economic parts to non-economic ones are high, the recognition and introduction of information, structure and prediction of short term market for determining appropriate policies is vital.
In this work, having looked at monthly statistics data (2001-2012), the reseachers tried to investigate the factors affecting the value of shares in the stock market. It is done by using a non-nested optimization model test to select the suitable model and to examine the factors affecting the value of shares in the stock market. In addition, their relationship will be described and estimated based on the VAR method. On the other hand, since the prediction of financial and capital market is efficient and stable, we can provide a framework for achieving economic growth and development. Thus, this paper will examine the structural stability and forecast it's market based on Auto Regression Moving Average process and according to the results, the applicable policies will be suggested.
The primary duty of exchange stock is providing capital stock for the government, the private, and industry sectors in the form of collecting stagnant savings and the liquidity of private sector in order to finance the long-term investment projects.
Stock Exchange is the official and confident authority where holders of stagnant savings can relatively find reliable investment places and use their surplus funds to invest on companies or buy bonds to gain a guaranteed profit.
In other words, the Stock Exchange plays a dual function in the structure of a free economy: one the one hand, it helps to increase the capital of the government and the private sector, and on the other hand, it creates the secondary market to meeting the potential and actual investors. Investigation, controlling and conducting the market can lead to the financial resources of the capital market and investment for development and growth and the policies are planned on the basis of the goals of macroeconomic. Economists believe one of the reasons for the lack of the development of developing countries is the low level of investment. In this regard, the capital market is the main and important centre to attract these savings. Accordingly, we should identify its influential factors in the market, and thus use appropriate policies for the progression and growth of the market.
Achieving the optimal growth and development of economy without mobilization of financial resources in long term is impossible. In this regard, the position and the role of capital market are of high importance.
The capital market, which is the market of demand and supply of financial resources, can play a vital role when the process of supply and demand of its financial sources is the optimal allocations. The main prerequisite for the optimal allocations of resources in the capital market is the efficiency in their performance.
Thus, the difference between effective and efficient capital markets with inefficient markets is in the phenomenon of information and having access to them.
As the information related to the capital market (for a comprehensive, coherent and effective market activity) increases, the impact of the capital market on the growth and development of economy becomes more.
Conclusions and Suggestions: Thus, policy makers should pay attention to the Stock Exchange, its flourishing growth and to government policies, control the foreign exchange market, prevent the uncontrolled growth of liquidity, eliminate the cumbersome investment regulations and incentives tax, and finally draw a plan for implementation of economic policies.
In this regard, it is essential the country's economic managers identify macro-economic variables affecting the stock market, especially government-controlled variables and how their influence can lead to appropriate policies for the stimulatation of the market and growth of economy.

In this paper we specify and estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for an oil exporting and small open economy in accordance with the structure of the Iranian economy. The paper aims to examine the effects and also the mechanism of monetary, fiscal, oil export revenues and foreign exchange shocks on real and nominal macroeconomic variables. Our simulation results show that about 40 percent of any monetary base growth leads to inflation. Fiscal policy stimulates aggregate demand and increases inflation as well. But, the intensity and the amount of influence of current and development budget is not the same, the effect of development budget depends on the length of delays in implementation of state projects. Most of the macroeconomic variables are affected as a result of an oil shock due to dependency of Iran's economy on petro dollars. Although most of the economic operation use official exchange rate, parallel exchange rate affects significantly on the real and nominal variables due to private sector expectations. The details and the exact amount of effects of each shocks is presented in the full text of the paper.In this paper we specify and estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for an oil exporting and small open economy in accordance with the structure of the Iranian economy. The paper aims to examine the effects and also the mechanism of monetary, fiscal, oil export revenues and foreign exchange shocks on real and nominal macroeconomic variables. Our simulation results show that about 40 percent of any monetary base growth leads to inflation. Fiscal policy stimulates aggregate demand and increases inflation as well. But, the intensity and the amount of influence of current and development budget is not the same, the effect of development budget depends on the length of delays in implementation of state projects. Most of the macroeconomic variables are affected as a result of an oil shock due to dependency of Iran's economy on petro dollars. Although most of the economic operation use official exchange rate, parallel exchange rate affects significantly on the real and nominal variables due to private sector expectations. The details and the exact amount of effects of each shocks is presented in the full text of the paper.

This paper examines the effect of oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables. For this purpose, a model with 3 pairs of behavioral equations (export, import and government expenditure) and 14 definitions Equation is constructed. An oil price shock is applied in two different scenarios and their effects on the variables is examined. In the event of a temporary oil shock shown by a 50% increase in oil prices in year 1384, the monetary base and liquidity in the initial year is increased and in the second and third years decreased less than the baseline, finally at the three years, the variable moves near the baseline. Thus a temporary oil shock for the first year only increases the monetary base and liquidity, and the effect vanishes after three years. The impact of oil shocks on government expenditure is positive and government expenditure increases. The effects of a long-term oil shock at a scale of 50% annual increase in oil price for 1384 to 1389, leads to increase in monetary base and liquidity over the baseline for the entire period. This means the long-term upward shocks in oil prices have permanent effects on monetary variables that lasts over the entire period.

This paper analyzes the effects of oil shocks on macroeconomic performance and the occurrence of Dutch Disease in Iran. Using Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) approach, an open small economy including two production sectors of tradable and non-tradable is modeled. Parameters of this model are estimated by Bayesian method and using quarterly data of period 1367-1389. In order to investigate Dutch Disease phenomenon in Iran, the effects of an oil shock on macroeconomic variables are studied. The simulation results show the symptoms of Dutch Disease due to an oil shock, such as high and persistent inflation, non-tradable sector expansion, and real exchange rate appreciation. Then, in the next step, the effect of decreasing government share of oil revenues and transferring it to National Development Fund on reducing negative effects of an oil shock is investigated. The results indicate that it can cause a reduction in inflation and its persistence and also in the symptoms of Dutch Disease.

With regarding importance of oil price changes in oil income variation and their impressions in Iran oil dependent economy، in this paper، we investigate the impacts of oil price shocks on the main stock exchange index (stock price index) in Iran as an oil exporting country. Our data cover monthly time series from 1991:4 to 2011:12. For investigating the relationship between oil price and stock price، in addition to oil price and stock price index variables، real exchange rate and liquidity has been added to our model. We applied three different yardsticks for illustrating oil shocks: linear shocks، scaled shocks and net shocks. Statistical analysis has been done in the time series framework consist of the GARCH and the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. According ouz results، oil shocks have positive effects on stock indices so that with increasing in oil price، stock indices increase. Also our findings show that monetary shocks are more powerful than oil shocks in affecting stock prices. Asymmetric effect tests couldn’t prove any asymmetric impression on stock price index.

Too much reliance on oil incomes in oil-exporter countries is considered by economists as an undesired phenomenon. The phenomenon is undesirable because of exogenous nature of the oil price for these countries and the severe effects of sudden changes in the world oil price on the economy of such countries. This paper is an attempt to study the effects of unpredicted and exogenous changes of oil prices known as oil shocks during 1990 and 2008 on four major variables of Iran’s economy including economic growth، inflation rate and growth rates of government’s current and capital expenditures. For this purpose، Structural Vector Autoregressive Model and seasonal data are used. The results regarding the main hypothesis of the research about asymmetry in the effects of positive and negative shocks reveal that the effect of negative shocks in form of decrease in economic growth is quite greater than that of positive shocks in form of increase in economic growth. Also، the inflation rate and government’s current expenditure growth rate show an asymmetric reaction to positive and negative shocks، in a way that the negative shocks of oil price has more effect on the said variables than the positive shocks. However، for the government’s capital expenditure growth rate، the results indicate that positive shocks are more effective on the reaction of this variable.

The main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of oil price shocks on value-added of industrial sector، within the theoretical framework of the Dutch disease. Co-integration method is applied to evaluate and test hypothesis، using data during 1978-2010. We have first introduced a VAR model of value-added of industry using previous studies. Then، after investigating the stationary status of the variables and determining optimal lag length، the effect of shocks on the co-integration vector and the test of cumulative recursive sum of residuals were carried out to verify the presence of structural breaks. Finally، we investigated the long-run equilibrium relationship among variables. The results show that there is no long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. Analysis of the results shows that rise in oil revenues has a direct impact on the real exchange rate and domestic inflation and، it also has an indirect negative effect on the value-added of industry. The results indicate that the best way to deal with this phenomenon in the country is proper management of foreign exchange fund to prevent excess liquidity in the economy.

Oil shocks have always had different effects on the oil exporting and importing countries. It seems that these effects have modified during the last four decades. In other words, the effects of the oil shocks of 1970s on the industrialized economies of the oil importing countries have been mostly followed by an overwhelming stagflation, although such severe effects have not appeared after the oil shocks of 1990s. In this paper, with the use of Autoregressive (VAR) model, the attempt is to investigate the critical effects of oil shocks on some oil exporting countries like Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria, Norway and Canada. Based on impulse response functions in these countries, we will arrive at the conclusion that just in Norway and Canada, the effects of oil shocks on growth rate, inflation and real exchange rate have been decreased. In this case, the paper will argue that the role of exchange rate systems, monetary policies and different macroeconomic structure of these countries have caused milder effects of oil shocks in 1990s.

The goal of this paper is to analyze the effects of oil and money on operation of macro variables of Iranian economy in short and long-run. A macro model has been designed to show three long-run relationships that contains output, real money balance and purchasing power parity in a vector error correction model with exogenous variables. This model has been estimated based on seasonal data during 1367 to 1387. The results confirm three long-run relationships said in Iranian economy. The responses of macroeconomic variables to oil and monetary shocks analyzed based on estimated model and impulse response functions.

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the asymmetric effects of oil shocks on output in IRAN during 1959-2007. To do this, we are going to study three effects of oil income shocks on output by the help of LSE approach in the context of output function. The data collected represents that the effects of oil shocks on output are asymmetric in both short-term and long-run. In short- term, positive oil shocks effects are greater than negative ones. But, in long-term, negative shocks are greater. The effects of positive oil shocks on output will be decreased over the time and then, in the case of negative shocks, these effects will be stronger.

Pipe is one of the main tools for transforming gas, oil and oil commodities in oil industry. For this reason pipe production, import and export are of greate importance. The main pipe producer in Iran is Ahvaz pipe Mills Company. Therefore, the main pipe production function has been estimated during 1979-2002 using Engle-Granger co-integration method and error correction model. The findings of the research show that the Cobb-Douglas mode fits data better than other models. The speed of error correction of the model equals -0.96. The elasticity of labour is 0.58 and that of capital is 0.53 which indicate increasing returns to scale. The findings also show that regarding the current production and domestic demand, pipe export strategy cannot be the main priority of the company in short term. But in long term, when the domestic consumption is fulfilled, pipe export to neighbor countries based on consumer-oriented approach can be considered as one of the main priority of the company.