جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « عدم قطعیت سیاست اقتصادی » در نشریات گروه « اقتصاد »

In the oil market, the price of oil depends on the international supply and demand of oil. In general, the factors affecting the price of oil can be divided into two main groups: fundamental factors and non-fundamental factors. Oil has both physical and commodity aspects as well as assets. Changes in fundamental and non-fundamental factors lead to changes in oil prices. Supply and demand are among the fundamental factors and risks and uncertainties, psychological, political, and geopolitical factors, stock exchange and speculation activities in oil financial markets, etc., which cause sudden changes in oil prices are among the non-fundamental factors. One of the signs of the existence of uncertainty in an economic system is high fluctuation in economic variables. The interaction between oil performance and macroeconomics has long attracted attention in the economic literature. Attention to this issue dates back to the 1970s. The 1970s and early 1980s were marked by sharp jumps in oil prices. Adverse oil supply shocks are often considered the main source of macroeconomic fluctuations and stagflation in that period (Blinder & Rudd, 2008).The present study differs from other studies in two ways compared to other studies. In internal studies, uncertainty related to variables is mainly measured through the conditional heterogeneous variance pattern. The data is an indicator of uncertainty in this study based on the method of Baker et al. (2016) and based on the media. When analyzing economic phenomena in a regression framework, economic theory seldom provides distinct information about the functional form of the relationship between the dependent variable and its independent variables. The simple properties of regression functions – such as models that are linear in parameters – are widely used in experimental applications, as they facilitate both econometric estimation and the economic interpretation of estimated regression parameters. However, the assumption about the functional form of the regression function leads to an error of incorrect parameter specification, which can lead to incorrect economic results and recommendations. In recent years, the rapidly growing literature on nonparametric econometric methods has been a solution to the problems of parametric specification error in econometric regression models. Nonparametric regression methods do not require the researcher to assume and determine a functional form for the relationship between explanatory variables and dependent variables. Thus, the functional form is determined by the data instead of the researcher making arbitrary decisions. In this aspect, the present study is different from other studies. Therefore, in the present study, considering the role and importance of OPEC in the oil supply and demand and oil prices and its effect on the growth and production of wealth in the world, factors affecting the determination of OPEC oil prices with emphasis on economic policy uncertainty as a representative of non-fundamental factors affecting oil prices, are investigated for a selection of OPEC member countries from 2003-2017 using non-parametric regression.

The methodology must be clearly stated and described in sufficient detail or with sufficient references. The author should concisely summarize the research framework, and the research methods applied in the study. The summary should include the identification of valid data sources used in the research.The statistical population in this study is OPEC member countries and the data consist of 6 cross sections between the years 2003-2017. The data were extracted from World Bank reports, the OPEC Database[1], the Economic Policy Uncertainty Database[2], the World Bank Database[3], and the OECD website[4].The variables of the OPEC real oil price model are dependent and independent including uncertainty of economic policy, industry value added index, real interest rate index, oil rents, renewable energy, and oil price expectations.                                                                 

 By using the kernel regression: local linear estimator, the extent and direction of the effect of global economic policy uncertainty on oil prices is estimated. The table of meanings of the studied variables is given in Appendix One. The results show that the alternative energy index and the interest rate index are fixed with a durable interruption. Also, according to the diagram shown in Appendix 2, in most of the countries studied, the value-added index of the industrial sector, affects the real price of oil by interruption.
In this section, using the findings of kernel regression: local linear estimator in Stata software, the research hypotheses are examined as follows:Uncertainty in global economic policy has a positive and significant effect on oil prices.
Among the influential factors in oil prices, economic policy uncertainty has the greatest effect.