جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "مدل داده" در نشریات گروه "اقتصاد"

Implementation of targeted subsidies law has influenced the revenue and costs of these organizations directly or indirectly. In this regard, studying the impacts of mentioned plan on revenue resources and municipalities’ costs of the country is of great importance with systematic approach in municipalities’ budgeting. The impacts of adjustment policies of energy prices on municipalities’ revenue and costs can be evaluated systematically based on input-output models. What complicates the issue is the adjustment of municipalities’ costs issues.
Rise in the price of energy carriers may directly lead to increase in revenue from value added tax act for municipalities through increasing revenues from duties related to fuel and electricity. In order to estimate the impact of the implementation of the first stage of law on the income item, Consumption and price of energy carriers were used in the years before and after of the law. Having information about price and consumption after targeting, this makes it possible to calculate the increase of Rial value of use of different energy carriers in the year and calculate the rate of increase in duties of each fuel for all municipalities and rural municipalities in the country by using obtained figure and applying toll collection rates related to municipalities, specified in VAT act, as well. The impact of adjustment of energy prices on the inflation of different products can be stimulated by using price model based on input-output table. Increase in the costs of municipalities can be calculated according to obtained inflation in goods and services of the total economy. This type of stimulation will be based on systematic approach and all direct and indirect effects are considered in it. Budgeting of municipalities based on mentioned approach will result in balanced budget.

Given the high share of energy subsidies in Iran (25. 9% of GDP in 2006)، an assessment of likely inflationary impacts of their removal is needed to provide policy makers with the requisite guidance for appropriate decision making. This paper thus assesses the likely inflationary impacts of adjusting energy prices using an input- output model to evaluate cost push and demand pull inflationary impacts under scenarios of sudden and gradual changes. The results indicate that if the prices of all energy sources are increased at once، the consumer price index (CPI) will increase by 48. 6 per cent and producer prices will rise by 63. 6 percent. On the other hand، if prices are increased gradually over four years the average annual additional inflation will be 10. 5 percent. The model further predicts a deman pull inflation of the order of 2. 7 percent، which will result in an overall additional inflation of 4 percent، taking into account the money multiplier of 1. 5.

The allocation of subsidies payment has been mentioned in both articles 46 and 47 of the Third Socio-Economic, and Cultural Development Plan. The global oil price fluctuations and their direct impacts on the Iranian national budget allocations has resulted in energy subsidies payment to be one of the most challenging issues in the Iran’s economy. The objective of this research is the assessment of inflationary impacts of energy subsidy removal by using an energy input-output price model. The findings indicate that the costs of production in the different economic sectors will rise following energy prices increase. The inflationary impacts in non-metallic mineral products, forestry, and petroleum products will be the highest while the electricity price increase has dominant role in price inflation. The significant changes will happen in the macroeconomic variables such as private consumption expenditures, government consumption expenditures, gross fixed capital formation, as well as exports.