جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "asymmetrical effects" در نشریات گروه "اقتصاد"

Iran is among the most important oil-exporting countries in the world which enjoys the revenues of oil sales on providing public funding. The revenue of crude oil export in country constitutes a significant share of public budget. The aim of present study is to examine the effect of asymmetrical shocks of oil income on macroeconomic variables between 1970-2018.To investigate the relationship between Hamilton and Moorak oil shocks on macroeconomic variables auto regressive vector model is used. The results have shown that negative shock from Hamilton oil revenues compared to positive shock caused salient fluctuations on variables, but on positive and negative shocks of moorak, the effects of variables have been asymmetric. If positive and negative shocks to be entered on oil revenues, all the existing variables such as national gross income, national revenues, exports and imports of goods and services, government’s expenditures, inflation and private consumption will have reacted on incoming shocks.

This paper aims to investigate whether an asymmetrical relationship between oil price oscillations and government and private consumption has existed in the past in case of Iranian economy. The data used for this purpose covers the time span of 0231-0231corresponding to 0790-1110. Towards this end three analytical techniques have been use to investigate this hypothesis. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) was used to estimates the parameters coefficients. The result has indicated that coefficients of parameters pertaining to government consumption model have higher value than that of private consumption model, indicating that government consumption is far strongly affected by changes in oil prices.It has been further identified that the establishment of Oil Stabilization Fund in year 1111, did not have any significant bearing on the government and private consumption in the wake of changes in oil prices.