جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "bayesian averaging model" در نشریات گروه "اقتصاد"

The capital structure, meaning the way the company is financed, affects the value of the company, the relationship between the components of the capital structure, which is a mixture of bonds and stocks for financing, has a significant effect on the performance results of companies, the aim of the research is to model the factors affecting the capital structure in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (the approach of Bayesian averaging (BMA), This research is practical in terms of purpose and correlational in terms of nature. In order to achieve the goal of the research, 175 companies were selected from among the companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 1390 to 1400 by systematic elimination method and considered as the main sample.In order to identify the most important variables affecting the capital structure, the BMA model has been used. Based on this, 61 identified variables affecting the capital structure were included in the Bayesian averaging model. These variables were divided into two categories of internal and external factors. Based on previous probabilities, 17 variables were identified as important variables on capital structure. Among these variables, 10 intra-company variables (type of ownership; net operating profit; current ratio; total assets turnover ratio; interest rate coverage ratio; debt-to-equity ratio; beta per share; accrual profit management; financial distress and tax) and 7 external variables (inflation, exchange rate, budget deficit, business climate index, economic resilience index, sanctions index, capital market depth) were effective on the capital structure

The purpose of this paper is to specify an early warning system for currency crisis and to investigate the role of capital control together with other warning indicators in the crisis. Increasing mobility of capital and liberalization in international financial flows is one of important dimensions of globalization, which has significant benefits to many countries worldwide. However, due to negative impacts on exchange rates as well as currency crises, financial liberalizations followed by some Latin American and Southeast Asian countries raised concerns in the last decade of the twentieth century. Hence the question: can capital control play a role in preventing or exacerbating the currency crisis? This study evaluates the relationship between capital control index and currency crisis and also examines the role of this variable as a warning indicator. Since the main application of the early warning systems is crisis forecasting, the purpose is to model the early warning indicators of currency crisis using Bayesian averaging method. To achieve this, 70 variables were examined for 60 countries during the period 1975-2019, both in floating and non-floating exchange rate systems. The results showed that capital control has a significant effect on reducing the occurrence of currency crisis, also different capital control indicators do not have the same warning power. In addition, different currency systems are effective in changing the power and rank of warning variables, especially for the use of capital control index.