جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "dynamic system" در نشریات گروه "اقتصاد"

Due to the increasing growth rate of electricity demand as well as relevant supply challenges, the economic issues of power systems have been considered by governments and energy experts to achieve further efficient resources allocation. Based on an approach of a dynamic system, the aim of this study has been to modelling the regional integration of electricity markets among the selected ECO member countries (including Iran, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Pakistan and Afghanistan) in order to maximize the stability of electricity supply. Accordingly, the required data have been applied during the period of 1980-2019. In this respect, two scenarios, namely a scenario of self-sufficiency of electricity (implying national electricity market) and a scenario of free regional market (implying regional integration market) have been conducted respectively, by specifying and estimating a Structural time series model, to simulate the trade flows of electricity in the selected ECO country members by 2030. The simulated results have indicated that Iran has had the marginal storage of more than one and the lowest price among the countries, while it has the largest volumes of electricity exports. Afghanistan with the marginal storage of less than one among the regional countries has had the lowest volumes of electricity Imports. In addition, the empirical results have revealed the fact that the electricity price has been decreasing as a result of a decrease in the electricity production costs. Consequently, the paper findings imply that uncertainty in the electricity supply can be reduced through implementing an integrated regional electricity market among the ECO members.

Consumption is a dynamic process that is inextricably linked to lifestyle and may be considered the most important aspect among the variables and components of modern citizens' lifestyles. This article investigates and categorizes the consumption patterns of Iranian urban families. Our hypothesis is that consuming is a dynamic process, which we illustrated by utilizing the systems dynamics method through Vensim software capabilities. We established the problem and presented our dynamic hypothesis inside it while using this program to execute dynamic modeling procedures. Then, after investigating the many parts of the problem, and while recognizing the effective variables and developing a subsystem diagram, we give a causal loop diagram to explain the currents in this model. In the next step, we created nine scenarios by sketching a state-flow diagram and modeling. These scenarios were generated using the sensitivity analysis approach, from which we gathered data on the consumption patterns and lifestyles of urban families in Iranian society, and finally, we presented ideas and suggestions. Except for biological consumption, which is naturally the first priority of consumption among urban families, the results of this article and the derived model show that the situation of other consumptions is nearly the same, and the curves of media consumption and cultural consumption are higher than other costs. This means that when the economy improves, such consumption will rise even more.

In this article, we take a new approach to simulating and modeling the dynamic system of foreign trade using the theory of control and system engineering. First, we examine the dynamic model of government budget, imports, domestic production, and then by designing a controller based on determining the amount of imports by the government to control the amount of tariffs to support domestic production, finally simulating the model in the form of Different scenarios are discussed. Various conditions in the field of foreign trade require a proper analysis and understanding of the performance of the executive arms of the government in this important economic field. Therefore, with a common perspective in the fields of engineering and economics, we have analyzed the situation. The results of this model indicate that the variable customs tariff is a very important control to support domestic production, if this tool is not used properly, it can act as an obstacle to the growth of domestic production.

The conflict between the increase in production welfare and the decrease in welfare due to negative environmental externalities has called into question the idea of maximizing welfare as a result of increased production and has provided the ground for further studies. The purpose of the present study is to evaluate the pathways of economic growth when pollution externality is produced by using of a dynamic system model. The model assumes that some of the income will be expenditure to reduce pollution. The positive effect of utility and the negative effect of pollution are reflected in the welfare function. In the present study, the trend of variables over a period of 50 years is examined. The simulation results show that with increasing investment in improving environmental quality to reduce pollution, pollution and the present value of pollution damage increases and the present value of utility and accumulated welfare decreases. Therefore, policymakers should pay particular attention to environmental pollution and their environmental damages and increase the rate of investment in environmental pollution control. Because the rate of increase in pollution is higher than the rate of increase in investment in pollution control.

The current study has been simulated the population of higher education and unemployed highly educated people by dy dynamic system method for the period 2016-2025 in Iran.
Simulation of a higher educated population is based on changes in the total population, supply of the population of students, economic factors affecting the higher education demand and the ratio of labor force to the number of students. Results show in the baseline scenario (continue the status quo) student population will be decreased from 4.8 million in 2016 to 3.5 million in 2025. The main reasons for the decline in student population, are decrease in the high school student population and reduce in the number of people 18 and 19 years old.
Baed on the simulation of the model the number of educated unemployed population increase from 1 million in 2016 to 2.4 million in the year 2025 even if the economy achieves a high economic growth.