جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "regional growth" در نشریات گروه "اقتصاد"

Extended abstract                                                                                                                                                                 
1- In today's world, economic growth and development is more of a regional phenomenon than a national one. Countries, especially neighboring countries such as Europe or Southeast Asia, grow together; Because the proximity of countries in a region, due to shorter distances and reduced transportation costs on the one hand, and other commonalities such as culture, language, religion, etc., on the other hand, can achieve different economic integration for countries around the world. And made them more interested in economic and trade cooperation. Trade is the starting point of this economic cooperation. When a country's economy grows, an economic overflow occurs, and when an economic overflow is created, the economies of the surrounding countries practically change.
As Afghanistan is a drug producer and a hub for smuggled goods, Afghanistan's underground economy and war have transformed the legal economy throughout the region. This underground economy has led to the financing of terrorist groups in this country. Thus, lasting peace in Afghanistan requires not only political agreement, but also the transformation of the regional economy. Therefore, this study tries to measure the impact of economic growth of Afghanistan's neighbors and most important business partners on its economic growth by using annual GDP data (2002-2007) and self-regression model (VAR) and identify which one of the neighboring countries, it has the greatest impact on the economic growth of Afghanistan, according to which, through tariff policies and the expansion of trade, to provide the basis for further economic growth for the people of Afghanistan.
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
Many economic thinkers believe that a country's economic situation is not only influenced by its economic performance and behavior; It is also influenced by the performance of neighboring countries. Ignoring these relationships and ignoring spatial factors can have very negative effects on a country's performance. Because in international trade, spatial dependence can be justified in the course of trade through the overflow effects of neighboring countries. In such a way that some structural changes in the trade flow of a region affect the trade flow of the neighboring country. Because the structural changes that occur in a country, affect the flow of trade in that country and will also affect the flow of trade of geographical neighbors. Thus, in the real world, when a country's expenditures and incomes change, that change is transmitted to other countries through a change in that country's imports. When reactions occur in other countries, feedback is generated in the original country. Experience has also shown that the countries of the world are dependent on macroeconomic activity, and the income level of one country is positively dependent on the income level of other countries. Therefore, Afghanistan's economic growth is also subject to the economic growth of other countries. This was also seen in the global economic downturn that began in 2007-2008. When a boom or bust occurs in one country, it returns to the original country after being transferred to other countries.
3- This research is performed by using annual GDP data (2017-2002) and self-regression vector model (VAR); Because contemporaneous equation models are based on an approach that assumes some variables are endogenous and some are exogenous. Defining variables into "endogenous" and "exogenous" may have theoretical underpinnings or may be a matter of taste. Even when it has theoretical support, doubts are raised about it, and the experimental results may contradict its theoretical foundations. However, the self-regression vector (VAR) model is used in cases where there is no certainty whether the variables are endogenous or exogenous.
4- RESULTS & The short-term results show that there is no causal relationship between Afghanistan's GDP growth and the economic growth of Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. But the relationship between Iran's and Afghanistan's economic growth is a one-way causal relationship on Iran's economic growth. Because Iran's exports to Afghanistan are often intermediate-capital goods that lead to production and economic growth; But Afghanistan's exports to Iran are mostly agricultural products, which are considered as consumer goods and have no effect on Iran's economic growth. The results also show that the relationship between the economic growth of Afghanistan and Pakistan is a causal two-way relationship. Because Afghanistan's exports to Pakistan are agricultural and livestock products. These goods are considered as consumer and final goods that due to the lack of necessary infrastructure for storage of agricultural products in Afghanistan, they are exported to Pakistan cheaply in the harvest season and re-enter Afghanistan in the winter. Pakistan exports to Afghanistan (compared to Iran) are mostly final and consumer goods. Hence, Iran's economic growth has a greater impact on Afghanistan's economic growth than Pakistan's. Long-term results based on the Johansson test also show that the growth of Afghanistan's GDP depends on the GDP growth of Iran and Pakistan.
The results obtained from the shock response functions for shocks to Afghanistan from Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan show that shocks to Afghanistan from Iran, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan disappear over time and destabilize the Afghan economy. It is not possible; But the shock from Pakistan to Afghanistan is further destabilizing Afghanistan's economy. This is quite clear in the comparison between the graphs. The results of analysis of variance also show that in the short run, most of the changes in Afghanistan's GDP are self-sustaining. But in the long run, most of the changes are explained by Iran's GDP and the least by Tajikistan's GDP. In other words, Iran's economic growth compared to other countries has the greatest effect on Afghanistan's GDP growth.
5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
The results of this study show that there is a positive and long-term relationship between the economic growth of Afghanistan and the countries of Iran and Pakistan. The results in the short run also show that there is a one-way causal relationship from Iran's GDP to Afghanistan's GDP. But there is no two-way causal relationship between Afghanistan and Iran GDP growth. There is also a two-way causal relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan's GDP. While there is no causal relationship between the GDP of Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. In addition, the long-term results show that Iran, Pakistan and Turkmenistan play a major role in explaining the fluctuations of Afghanistan's GDP, with Iran accounting for the largest share.
According to the results of the study, it is suggested that in order to ensure Afghanistan's economic growth, tariff barriers to the import of Iranian goods to Afghanistan should be removed or reduced, and in contrast, customs tariffs for other neighboring countries should be increased.

One of the important topics in regional economic literature is inter-regional communication and the influence of one region from other regions. In this way, economic growth in one region can lead to growth and development in neighboring regions. Accordingly, if one of the factors affecting economic growth, such as financial development, causes economic growth in a region, the existence of spillover effects will also affect the economic growth of neighboring regions. According to this theory, it can be said that financial development in an area (if it has an intra-regional impact) can also have spatial effects (spillovers and between-regional). The objectives of this study are: 1- investigating the effect of direct effect of financial development on the growth of Iranian provinces 2- spillover effects of financial development on the growth of Iranian provinces 3- Effect of auxiliary variables such as foreign direct investment, transaction value of Stock market, bank lending facilities, human capital and per capita road on the growth of Iranian provinces.  To collect information related to the research, a documentary or library method was used in which the data of 30 provinces of the country in the period 2011-2015 were collected. Then the data is analyzed using the spatial panel econometric method.  Therefore, the results of model estimation show that financial development has had a positive and significant effect on economic growth of regions, but no spillover effects on the growth of neighboring regions and provinces. Also, foreign direct investment and road per capita have both a direct positive effect and a positive spillovers effect on the growth of regions. Human capital has also had a positive and significant direct effect on the economic growth of the regions. The effects of its spillovers have also been significant on the growth of regions. According to the results of the study, financial development has a positive and significant effect on the regional growth of Iran's provinces. One of the indicators of financial development is the facilities granted by banks to the public and private sectors, which has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. According to the results, if the granting of credits and banking facilities to the applicants of private sector projects is done and since it is one of the most important domestic sources for investment, by adopting the correct monetary policies and using appropriate monetary instruments, private sector savings can be efficiently equipped and directed to productive activities, so financial development through the optimal allocation of capital resources and the provision of better and more efficient services, the field of innovative activities. Improves and increases economic efficiency and ultimately leads to the growth of neighboring areas.

One of the factors affecting economic growth along with traditional factors of production such as labor force and capital  is structural changes in the economy. Structural change is a broad economic process that involves changes in the structure of production and employment within and across sectors of the economy. The emergence of new activities and sectors in the economy and the disappearance of old activities and sectors are also indicators of structural changes in the economy (Gabardo  et  al., 2017, p. 5). From the perspective of a well-structured economy the countries and regions that have a production structure commensurate with regional and national potentials can experience faster economic growth, and countries that depart from this well-structured position, will have a less economic growth (Eigner, 2001, p. 3). Therefore, investigating the effect of structural changes on macroeconomic variables and then identifying the factors influencing structural changes can provide a good basis for policymakers to remove the barriers of structural change and thereby achieve greater growth and development in the regions and also in the country. Economic growth and development in an area can be influenced both by specific characteristics within the region (direct and intra-regional effects) and by the characteristics of the surrounding area (spillovers and inter-regional effects) (Sharify and Hosseinzadeh, 2016, p. 2). Disregarding the interconnections and spillover effects between the variables can cause the model results to be biased. One of the models that is able to consider inter-regional correlations and consider the spillover and indirect effects of variables is the spatial econometric model.

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the direct and spillover effects of structural changes on economic growth in 28 provinces of Iran during 2004-2015 using spatial econometric model. An important feature of this study compared to previous studies in the field of structural change impact is the use of spatial econometric model to study the direct and spillover effects of this variable on economic growth in different provinces of the country. The production data of different economic sectors were used as the statistical bases for calculating the structural change and Gross domestic production index in 28 provinces of the country. Also, government expenditure and provincial  active population variables were used as control variables. Finally, the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) and the Stata 14 software were used to estimate the model.

The results of the model estimation showed that structural  changes directly and indirectly had a significant and negative impact on the production of regions. This indicates that structural changes have not been consistent with the regional growth pattern. Also, government spending variables in the region and the active population of the region had a positive and significant direct effect on regional economic growth.

Based on the results of the research, it can be concluded that the economic structure in different provinces of the country should be changed in accordance with the regional advantages. Government spending should also increase in line with regional potential.

Due to economic shocks and imbalances in structural budgets, there is a situation that leads to stress in governments in uncertain conditions. Fiscal stress as a unstable situation in local governments' financing can exacerbate governments' inability to meet short-term and long-term fiscal commitments and excessive dependence on the central government. In this study, we tried to clarify the fiscal situation in 31 provinces of Iran by calculating the local fiscal stress index under variables of each province's fiscal structure and budget, then, we estimate the  threshold and spatial effects through the Panel Smooth Transition Regression method on economic growth and employment over the period 2005-2017. The results show that the high effectiveness of the labor market from stress to economic growth. Initially, these effects on both economic growth and employment have an immediate and positive effect. but by crossing the threshold of fiscal stress and exerting pressure on it, the ability to control this imbalance is eliminated and will reduce economic growth and employment.

Economic theory has emphasized the important role of human capital on national and regional economic growth. The present study aimed to analyze the effect of the composition of human capital on economic growth in Iranian provinces. We estimated a Spatial Dynamic Panel Data model by using Generalized Method of Moments technique for 28 Iranian provinces over the period 2001-2011.
The results indicated that tertiary and primary and secondary education had positive and significant effects on economic growth. Also, the human capital structure had an inverse-U-shape effect on economic growth. In other words, growth is increasing in the human capital structure at low levels of the human capital structure, but the relation turns negative once the human capital structure exceeds a critical value.

The economic distance refers to the ease or difficulty for goods، services، labor، capital، information، and ideas to traverse space. This variable affects the regional economic growth through influencing location of firms، knowledge spillover and market size. This paper examines the effects of economic distance on regional economic growth by using Dynamic Panel Data model for 28 provinces of Iran over the period 2000-2009. The results show that economic distance has negative effect on regional economic growth.