جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "toda" در نشریات گروه "اقتصاد"

One of the important issues of Iran's economy in the last half century has been the high growth of liquidity, which shows the manipulation of money by the government and monetary authorities. One view considers the weakness of the rule of law as the cause of this problem, but another view states the causal relationship in the opposite direction and believes that money and the benefits derived from it are a factor in weakening the rule of law. Theoretically, there is a bilateral relationship between money creation and the rule of law. On the one hand, it is the laws that determine how much money should be created, the extent powers of monetary authorities, and how its benefits are distributed. On the other hand, the growth of liquidity and inflation take the structure of the economy out of the free market process and affect the rule of law. This study seeks to investigate the causal relationship, the existence of a long-term relationship and the type of relationship between these two variables in Iran using data from the rule of law index and liquidity in the period 1996-2020 with Toda and Yamamoto causality method, band test and autoregression vector method. It was concluded that the volume of liquidity in Iran has been a factor in weakening the rule of law.

According to the Kau and Rubin (K&R) hypothesis, increasing the government's power to collect taxes, through increased tax revenues, expand the public sector expenditure. In this regard, the main objective of this paper is to empirically test the relationship between government's power to collect taxes, tax revenues and government expenditures in Iran during the period of 1971-2013. For this purpose, rate of female participation in the labor market and self-employment rate is used as two variables which are the indicators of government's power to collect taxes, and Toda and Yamamoto granger causality method is used. The Results show no causality relationship from the government's power to collect taxes indicators toward government spending (Rejection of the Kau and Rubin hypothesis). The reason for this conclusion is justified based on the absence of causality relationship from government's power to collect taxes indicators toward tax revenue; however, the causality relationship from tax revenues toward government expenditure is approved (confirm of the Friedman's hypothesis). According to other results, the causal relationship from the oil revenues toward government expenditure and tax revenues is confirmed.

Among energy carriers, the role of oil is more remarkable in economic development of developed and developing countries. But the fluctuations in oil price, existence of constant challenges between suppliers and demanders, the beginning of descending trend of production and promoting the energy security in its consuming countries have caused besides oil, its substitutes find specific importance. Development and extraction of unconventional resources on one hand have made changes in reservoirs ranking in different areas of the world and has weakened the dependency of consuming countries and on the other hand, it has affected the changing trend of oil price. In this respect, the present study investigates the causal relationship between oil price and supplying unconventional oil and gas during time period of 2000-2015. Two techniques named Granger technique and Toda and Yamamoto technique have been used to investigate the causal relationship. The results of the research show that in all studying period (2000-2015) the unconventional supply is the strong and direct cause for oil price and the indirect and weak price are introduced as the causes of unconventional supply. Also, based on the results, the strong impact of financial markets on the supply of unconventional resources and oil prices has been achieved. On the other hands the results show that unconventional supply will affect the supply of OPEC in the long term (2000-2015). Therefore, this achievement for OPEC countries, as well as Iran, can be used as a result of a strategic change in production policy.

Although the trend of increase in energy consumption has made possible fast economic growth of industrial modern society, but because of combustion pollutants emission and increase in density of carbon dioxide in atmosphere has made irreversible changes in the world. Not only this trend is destroying finite and nonrenewable energies, but also it is releasing numerous of pollutants into the receptive environment (air, water, and soil).
In this article, existence of caus ality relation between energy carrier's consumption with economic growth and carbon dioxide gas emission in sectors of economy (residential, general and commercial, industry, agriculture, and transportation) in period of 1376 to 1391 using causality Toda and Yamamoto has been studied. In order to identify consumption of which energy carrier excites economic growth and carbon dioxide gas emission in each sector or economic policy in which energy carrier for a sector is suitable for that sector without reducing economic growth rate.
In the agriculture sector, results show a unidirectional causality relation of energy carrier consumption to economic growth. In transportation, residential, general and economic sectors existence of bidirectional causality relation of economic growth variable and carbon dioxide gas emission with energy carriers has been verified. In industry sector, a unidirectional causality relation of economic growth to gas, electricity to economic growth and bidirectional causality relation of coal exist. Also, unidirectional causality relation of carbon dioxide emission to oil and bidirectional causality relation carbon dioxide gas emission to other variables except oil exist.

In recent decades environment has been an important issue more than any other time. Hence, this study investigated the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality indicator in selected developing countries (including 32 country) for the period 2002-2013 by using a dynamic panel method based on generalized method of moments (GMM). The results show that there is a positive and significant relationship between economics growth and degradation of environment (environmental quality degradation), which means that an increase in environment degradation indicator increased the economic growth. This case is because of the rate of resource depletion begins to exceed the rate of resource regeneration and Pollution Haven Hypothesis in the studied countries. The results of Sargen and Arellano-bond autocorrelation test also respectively show, there is correlation between tools and component disruption and model does not have autocorrelation in the first order difference. Meanwhile results of Toda and Yamamoto Causality test show the existence of unilateral relationship from the Environment Degradation indicator to Economic Growth.

In the present study, the hypothesis of the type of relationship between insurance market activity, banking sector and economic growth in Iran has been investigated. In this regard, using time series data from 1980 to 2016, the relationship between insurance market activity and banking sector on the one hand and the simultaneous relationship between the insurance market, banking sector and economic growth on the other hand have been investigated. For this purpose, the indices of density (ID), penetration (IP) and composite index (IMA) that created by the principal component analysis approach (PCA) have been used as a proxy for the insurance market activity and domestic credit to private sector by banks (BMA) has been used as a proxy for the banking sector and the growth of GDP per capita has been used as a proxy for economic growth. The VECM model and Toda and Yamamoto approach are also used to examine the relationship between variables. The results of the causality analysis indicate that, despite the difference in results based on the type of alternative index of insurance market activity, the causality of the insurance market activity is towards the banking sector. Also a long-run relationship between the activity of the insurance market and the banking sector and the activity of the banking sector with economic growth confirmed

The Objective of this research is to study the relationship between land price and housing prices in Iran according to the mutual causation perspective. Based on Haizhen and Allen (2013) model and using a simultaneous equations system and two-stage least squares method to study the issue between the first quarter of 1998 to the fourth quarter of 2012. The results of Toda and Yamamoto causality and Hausman test indicates that there are bilateral causality between land prices and housing prices and the results of two-stage least squares method indicate that rising land prices have increased housing prices and rising housing prices have increased land prices. It is suggested that due to the special characteristics of land such as (no depreciation and low maintenance costs), reduced the storage of land by using tax and interdiction and specific incentive policies and led to the proportional transfer in supply and demand for land by reducing unemployment and rising income and demand.

Iran’s location in a strategic and turbulent region in one hand and its high share of military expenditures in the government budget on the other hand make it necessary to study the impact of military expenditures on the Iranian economic growth. This paper uses an augmented Solow model during 1959 and 2013 as well as the Granger causality test through vector autoregressive model (VAR) and Toda and Yamato as its methodology to study the causality relation between the variables which impact economic growth in Iran. The findings demonstrate that the military expenditures has a negative and significant impact on the Iranian economic growth. Also, there is a one-way causality relation between the military and non-military expenditures and oil revenues in a manner that petrodollars are spent for military and non-military expenditures. Therefore, it could be concluded that with an increase in oil revenues, the military and non-military expenditures of Iran rise as well. Also, the causality relation between oil revenues and economic growth in Iran is two-ways.

As a result of higher crude oil prices, in one hand, it is expected that alternative energy resources consumption is increased and consumers change their behavior to decline energy intensity too. On the other hand, more alternative energy consumption can leads to a decline of crude oil aggregate demand. Therefore, existence of mutual causality between crude oil price and alternative energy consumption is the main question of this research. To answer this question, an auto regressive model by Toda & Yamamoto test, has been used. Research data have been selected from world economics during 1969-2011. The results indicate bidirectional causality between crude oil price and alternative energy supply and no causality between energy intensity and alternative energy. Finally, the results reveal that there is a unidirectional causality from crude oil price to energy intensity.

The economy's dependence on oil revenues and derivatives of these products make the country's economy heavily influenced by the volatility and instability of the pricing of these products. Therefore, it seems necessary to develop non-oil exports. This paper examines the causality relation and the effect of foreign direct investment, economic openness and real exchange rate on non-oil exporting in I.R.Iran. Using annual data covering the period 1974-2008, vector auto regressive method and Toda- Yamamoto causality test it is shown that significant and positive effect exist between openness of economy, foreign direct investment, and real exchange rate on non- oil export variable. More over the existence of a single causality relation from real exchange rate and economic openness to non–oil exporting has been proved.

relationship between revenue and government expenditure is an important subject in public economics. there are essentially four schools of thought on the direction of causation between expenditure and revenue. purpose of this study is to investigate Long Run and Causality relationship between revenue and expenditure in covering data 1987- 2011 with using TodaYamamoto approach. The Iranian economy has been subject to a multitude of structural changes during the sample period. Thus، time series properties of the data are first analysed by Zivot-Andrews and Lee Strazicich model. the results indicate that all series are non-stationary at level. but thay are stationary at first difference. the Saikkonen and Luetkephol (2000) and Gregory and Hansen، cointegration approach is employed to determine the long-run Relationship between Expenditure and Government. This cointegration technique accommodates potential structural breaks that could undermine the existence of a long-run relationship between Expenditure and Government Revenue.

This study aims at exploring the relationship between energy consumption/efficiency and production growth in manufacturing agencies producing transportation vehicles in 1995-2009 using Granjer, Hsiao’s Granger, Toda-Yamamoto causality and DPD approach. The results of the model show that in these companies there is a one-tailed causal correlation between production value and energy consumption/efficiency and the given correlation is verified in both of the causal approaches. Similarly, the estimation of the model using DPD approach shows that there is a significant positive correlation between energy consumption and the value of the product in big factories producing transportation vehicles. The results also show that compared with an increase in the employment rate or energy consumption/efficiency, an increase in investment in these factories has a more significant effect on the value of the products in these agencies. This indicates that changes in production technology from labor or energy intensive to investment can lead to an increase in the value of products in agencies producing transportation vehicles in Iran.

Today the role of tax system is based on three primary political، social and economic goals. its biggest task is to defend economic security of economic agents as well as being known as an income method Economic insecurity has led to the increase in size of the underground economy، so itreduces amounts of investments in the economy. This phenomenon has a negative effect on the tax base and reduces tax revenues. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the relationship between tax revenue and economic security in Iran during the period of 1977-2011. For this purpose، we used the Hsiao''s- Granger and Toda & Yamamoto (TY) causality tests. The results show that there is a unilateral causality from the economic to security tax revenue. The economic Health and security of the country is subject to the healthy tax structure. Through establishing Strong tax system، creating appropriate cultural and encouraging people to pay taxes، economic structure of the country will be stronger. So according to the ratio of tax revenues to GDP is low and there is bilateral causal relationship between this variable and economic security، the tax system requires a fundamental review to provide financial security and investment. Consequently، tax revenues increase.

Decreasing unemployment rate is one of the most striking objects for economic planners and decision makers and achieving to this purpose، will lead to solve a lot of economic and social problems. Among many factors affecting unemployment rates، entrepreneurship has been an interesting topic for researchers for quite some time. The relationship between entrepreneurship and unemployment has posed a complex puzzle to scholars. One view، which has been called the unemployment push، or refugee effect، suggests that the decision to become an entrepreneur is a response to either being unemployed or else the perception of dismal future employment prospects. An alternative view suggests that entrepreneurship، by virtue of creating a new venture، contributes to the reduction of unemployment. While the first view suggests a positive relationship between entrepreneurship and unemployment، the second view suggests a negative relation between them. The present paper examines the relationship between entrepreneurship and unemployment in Sistan&Baluchestan Province through using Toda-Yamamoto approach in the period from 1998 to 2010. The results indicate that، Schumpeter effect for Province studied is established as a definite (impact of entrepreneurship rate on unemployment rate)، but refugee effect (impact of unemployment rate on entrepreneurship rate) cannot be confirmed. The evidence generally supports the existence of a uni-directional causality that runs from entrepreneurship to unemployment rate for the case of Sistan&Baluchestan.

Defense expenses account for one of the considerable and important public expenditures in most countries which play an important role in maintaining the internal and external security and economic stability and growth directly or indirectly. Undoubtedly, when the security of a country is threatened, more defense expenses are justified and economic and social investments decrease, resulting in lower economic growth. The study of impact of defense expenses on economic growth in Iran is important and necessary for two reasons: Iran's strategic position in the Middle East and the high defense expenses in government budget. For this purpose, Iran’s defense expensesduring 1959-2010are estimated by an augmented Solow model (proposed by Knight, Loayza and Villanueva). Findings show, using co-integration Johanson's and Granger Causality of Toda and Yamamoto Test model, there is a positive impact of defense expenses on economic growth in the long run and bidirectional causality between variables. Thus, although it is inevitable to allocate some portion of the annual public budget for defense expenses, its over-use will have negative impacts on the economic growth, causing stagflation in country.

There are Two important approaches about the relationship between government size and economic growth. According to Keynesian approach the economic growth is determined by government size. According to Wagner law، on the other hand، the government expenditures are results of economic activities. Thus، if the society''s real incomes increase، the public expenditures grow and the government size increase too. Recently، some empirical studies showed that there are bilateral causality between economic growth and the size of government. Our study tests Wagner’s law (using various specifications proposed by Huang) and compares it to Keynesian view، for the case of Iranian economy during 1965-2010. To analyze، we use annual time series including unit root test and two casual bounds test approaches based on unrestricted error correction model (UECM) (Pesaran، Shin and Smith (2001)) as well as Toda and Yamamoto''s Granger non-causality test (1995). Findings show a one-way causality from government size to economic growth (Verified Keynesian view). Some reasons are non-optimal management of government and the structure of the Iranian oil-dependent economy.

A large portion of the world energy consumption is provided by fossil fuels, which cause massive emissions of dangerous pollutants into the environment leading to global warming and climate change. What is certain is the world's energy consumption in order to increase economic growth and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions, especially carbon dioxide, the consumption of fossil fuels is a growing trend. Therefore in the present study to examine the causal relationship between CO2 emissions (as an alternative to the destruction of the environment variable) and variables of FDI, per capita energy consumption and GDP in the form of an environmental Kuznets hypothesis in Iran during 1980-2008. To that end, The Toda-Yamamoto method, has been used to examine the causality relationship. The main finding of this study shows that there exists bidirectional causality between CO2 emissions and energy consumption and unidirectional causality running from GDP to CO2 emissions. Given the existence of causal relationships between variables, the hypothesis of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) in state variables that criterion economic growth CO2 emissions and energy consumption is to be confirmed, but in that case the criterion of economic growth, GDP is confirmed is not.

This paper examines the relationship between financial development، economic growth and energy consumption in Iran. Many papers have used various indicators for financial development. In this study، we have tried to examine the effect of all indicators of financial development on energy consumption using BAND ARDL، Based on Unrestricted Error Correction Model (UECM)، (Pesaran، Shin and Smith، 2001) and TODA-YAMAMOTO test (1995) for the period of 1976-2010. The findings show that various indicators such as the ratio of allocated credits to the private sector to GDP، M2، the ratio of stocks traded to the trading volume of stocks markets and economic growth، have a long run relationship with energy consumption. Further، the findings confirm the unilateral causality from financial development and economic growth to energy consumption.

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the relationship between per capita health expenditure and per capita GDP for lower and middle income countries during 2003-2007. For this purpose, we used the Hsiaos-Granger and Toda & Yamamoto(TY) causality tests for investigating short-run relation between two variables. The results of the model estimation reveal that there is a unilateral causality from the GDP per capita to per capita health expenditure.Due to the results of this paper, the main implication policy of this study is that the policymakers and economic planners should adopt the suitable policies to improve economic growth and GDP per capita. Because, the increase of GDP per capita can be enhance the consumption expenditures and especially, health expenditures per capita.