جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « اثر هاربرگر » در نشریات گروه « اقتصاد »

National currency depreciation or appreciation has always been argued seriously among policymakers since changing in exchange rate could cause improvement or deficit in trade balance. These changes affect the trade volume of a country in both short-run and long-run. Long-run effects are recognized as the Marshall-Lerner condition, while short-run effects are analyzed by two concepts: J-Curve and S-Curve. In this study, the cross correlation has been calculated between trade balance and real exchange rate by using bilateral trade data between Iran and 21 selected trading partners over the period 1992-2011 in order to explore the existence of S-Curve in Iran. Based on the results, there is an S-Shaped curve for the Iranian trade relations with 14 major trading partners. However, this pattern does not match in relations with Syria, Pakistan, Qatar, Armenia, Kuwait, Azerbaijan, Canada, US and Hong Kong. Furthermore, the empirical results confirm Harberger-Larsen-Metzler effect in Iran`s trade relations with most of its trading partners. According to the results obtained, changes in exchange rate leads to a temporary improvement in Iran’s balance of payments, but this improvement reduces the exchange rate after a while.

The main purpose of this article is to study the impacts of terms-of-trade shocks on trade balance in Iran, using the HLM (Harberger – Laursen – Metzler) Effect theory. According to HLM Effect, an exogenous temporary increase in terms-oftrade of a small open economy leads to a temporary improvement in that country’s trade balance, but this effect fades away as time passes by. To study whether any systematic patterns exist in the responses of the trade balance, given to the termsof- trade shocks, a Structural Vector Auto Regression (SVAR) model has been employed. The variables used are terms of trade (unit value of export to unit value of import); Gross Domestic Product in constant prices and trade balance (net export to Gross Domestic Product) during 1959-2010. Our results approve the idea that there exists an HLM Effect in Iran's Economy.