جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « الگوی اقتصادسنجی کلان » در نشریات گروه « اقتصاد »

In this article, we have constructed a model with the inclusion of National Development Fund (NDF). The purpose of the model is conducting structural analysis and evaluating economic policies. The model consists of goods market, money market, exchange rate and labor market. The parameters of the model are estimated in the co-integration framework. Th (e annual data used are for the period 1960 - 2018. All behavioral equations are tested for the existence of co-integration by using Pesaran and Shin’s bond test approach. Not only each behavioral equations are confronted with a battery of statistical tests, but dynamic simulations are also used to validate the consistency of the model as a whole. Then, the effect of monetary and exchange rate policies with the help of model was examined under two scenarios: the existence of the National Development Fund (NDF) and its absence. The results show that the existence of the NDF has made the effectiveness of monetary and exchange rate policies in line with the desired gools much more appropriate.

Iran’s economy is among the economies with low resilience and high vulnerability. Economic resilience refers to the ability to cope with various economic shocks and the extent of recovery after a crisis. Economic Resilience which means enduring the effects of shocks and recovering quickly from economic shocks and returning to pre-crisis functioning, can help make the economy more resilient. Because different markets are related to this sector in various ways, in the event of a crisis or external shock and instability in this sector other sectors are affected as well; making the need to pay more attention to the stability of the sector and, to a greater degree, its resilience apparent. The purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies affecting the resilience of Iran's government budget sector. For this purpose, a macro econometric model was designed for the Iran’s economic. The policy variables used are legal reserve rate, banking system debt to the central bank, government construction budget, government oil revenue, deposit interest rate and official exchange rate and identified appropriate policies to increase the resilience index of the government budget sector by applying different scenarios. As well as the implementation of the combined scenario for the government budget sector resilience index shows a 53.61% increase in the average. The results showed that in the event of a shock, it is possible to prevent a sharp decline in the resilience index of the government budget sector by using a combination of economic policies.

Exchange rate volatility and its resulting uncertainty affects many macro variables, activities, economic conditions as well as economic welfare. This paper attempts to investigate the effect of exchange rate volatility on economic welfare using a macro-econometric model. Since measuring GDP does not always mean a higher welfare for the society, first a more appropriate index for measuring welfare is introduced, then the effect of exchange rate volatility on economic welfare is calculated using the designed macro-econometric model. With the assumption of no exchange rate volatility, economic welfare again is measured and the results are compared. Our findings show that exchange rate volatility results in lower economic welfare, which means ignoring it in the model would mis-specify it and therefore dis-array its findinings. At the end, the effects of implementing two different monetary policy rules in order to improve the declined economic welfare, due to exchange rate volatility, is examined and compared. The findings show that implementing the stability of banking profit rates in the era of exchange rate volatility is a better monetary policy.

This paper examines the economic growth challenges of Iran`s economy for the period 2017-2021, based on estimating and analyzing a acroeconometric model. The results of the baseline scenario show that even with no economic sanctions, and assuming gradual increase in production and oil export the economic growth would be about 3 percent per year on average during the above mentioned period. Thus, for the purpose of economic stability and productivity improvement, a set of reform policies should be adopted. According to the findings of different policy simulation of the model, the low annual economic growth in the baseline scenario could be improved to 5 percent through various policy reforms such as conducting specific rules for fiscal, monetary, exchange rate and energy pricing policies, with emphasis on the national development fund`s role in stabilizing government budget. However, to achieve sustainable development with high economic growth and low unemployment, it is necessary to implement outward-oriented policies toward more openness and domestic private investments.

This study investigated the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies’ targets, determined in the 4th national economic development program of Iran, using dynamic simulation approach. To this end, a macroeconometrics model was designed for Iran economy. In model specification, it was tried to consider the influential mechanisms of monetary and fiscal policies on all important sectors of economy. Equations were estimated for time period of 1971-2004 using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag method. When the models’ accuracy was confirmed, the impacts of monetary and fiscal policies’ targets, determined in the 4th program, on some important macroeconomics variables were predicted for time period of 2005-2013 using dynamic simulation. According to results, even though the application of the program’s targets reduces economic fluctuations, it cannot, however, put the economy on the determined mid-term and long-term path. Therefore, investigation of quantitative targets of monetary and fiscal policies in accordance with structural feature of Iran economy is recommended. However, in addition to the determination of mid-term and long-term targets, it is necessary to develop short-term compensating policies, especially for monetary policies, in order to minimize the deviation of the realized values from target values.