جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « تاب آوری اقتصادی » در نشریات گروه « اقتصاد »

In recent years, the COVID-19 pandemic has imposed considerable harm on economies globally. This situation has prompted researchers to thoroughly examine the issue from different perspectives and view bolstering the resilience of countries as the most effective strategy to address the vulnerabilities. Such efforts can mitigate the harmful effects and negative outcomes of the disease. The susceptibility of economic systems to the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic varies, with some being significantly more vulnerable to its effects. In this context, the greater a country's ability to mobilize its resources against such risks, the more resilient it becomes. Hence, economic resilience is regarded as a comprehensive approach to enhancing the existing capacities and reducing economic vulnerability in the face of various crises and environmental threats. Moreover, economic resilience is shaped by the implementation of economic policies and has an accumulative nature. Individuals and different schools of thought have focused on the concept of resilience within the economic realm, structuring their studies accordingly. Economic resilience emerges as a pervasive criterion in the literature on economic stabilization.In the economic discourse, particular emphasis is placed on assessing the composite index of economic resilience against external shocks, aiming to quantify this notion. This study sets out to investigate how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the economic resilience of countries across high, medium and low levels of income. Addressing 150 nations, this research employs the PSTR model over the timeframe spanning 2020 to 2021. The Economic Resilience Index is computed utilizing the Bruegel method for this inquiry. 

The PSTAR (Panel Smooth Transition Autoregressive) model is a powerful tool utilized to analyze nonlinearities and regime shifts in panel data. It extends traditional autoregressive models by allowing for smooth transitions between different states or regimes, thereby capturing complex dynamics in economic time series data.The PSTAR model assumes that the relationship between variables evolves smoothly over time and across different regimes. It is particularly useful in capturing threshold effects, where the impacts of one or more variables on the dependent variable change abruptly beyond a certain threshold level. This is achieved through the specification of transition functions, which determine how the model transitions occur between different regimes based on the values of certain threshold variables. The PSTAR model estimation involves several steps, including the specification of transition functions, estimation of model parameters using maximum likelihood or other suitable methods, and diagnostic checks to assess the model's goodness-of-fit and validity of assumptions. Additionally, we conduct robustness checks and sensitivity analyses to ensure the reliability of our findings.

This study reveals a significant negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economic resilience of countries across different income levels. Employing a two-regime model, the analysis demonstrates a nonlinear correlation among the variables, suggesting varied adjustment speeds among economic regimes. Specifically, countries with high incomes experience a moderate pace of adjustment, those with moderate incomes adjust slowly, and low-income countries adjust rapidly. This suggests that economic changes in response to the pandemic occur at different speeds across income groups.The COVID-19 pandemic has induced structural and performance alterations in economies worldwide, including increased unemployment, reduced growth, and shifts in consumption and investment patterns. These changes, coupled with challenges such as quarantine restrictions and decreased incomes, have led to considerable adjustments in economic dynamics, varying in speed from one state to another.Overall, economic changes during the pandemic are of significant diversity across countries, affecting consumption and production behaviors, policy frameworks, and international relations. Threshold values, representing critical points of pandemic severity, determine whether economic variables behave linearly or nonlinearly. When the pandemic's impact surpasses these thresholds, economic variables begin shifting to nonlinear regimes.Estimations from the smooth panel regression approach indicate a notable negative effect of the pandemic on economic vulnerability, affecting countries with high, medium, and low incomes alike. Per capita GDP, remittances, and foreign direct investment emerge as key influencers of economic resilience. While per capita GDP decreases during the pandemic for high and medium-income countries, it increases in the second threshold regime and boosts economic resilience. Remittances positively impact economic resilience in high-income countries but negatively affect medium and low-income ones initially, transitioning to positive effects after crossing the threshold. Foreign direct investment initially reduces economic resilience across all income levels but becomes positive and significant in high-income countries after crossing the threshold.In summary, the study underscores the complex interplay between the COVID-19 pandemic and economic resilience, emphasizing the need for tailored policy responses to mitigate its adverse effects across different income groups.Conclusions and Policy Implications: Although the public health system is evolving, the world remains susceptible to shocks caused by contagious diseases that present fundamental challenges to economies. The vulnerability resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic has spurred countries to allocate more funds to ensure economic security and global health. Nations across the globe are working to reduce the economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis through well-balanced policies, seeking to mitigate risks to the society as much as possible. To tackle the COVID-19 crisis, extensive actions are being taken, including sharing knowledge and experiences regarding strategies, policies and improvement plans, examining common responses, and coordinating actions to enhance resilience and effective recovery preparedness. Strengthening communication among policymakers, development planners, and relevant stakeholders, establishing strong multilateral institutions with political support for global health shock coordination, creating fast financial procurement mechanisms for essential goods, increasing investment in disease surveillance at global and regional levels, developing regional production capacities for vaccines, tests and medicines, sharing medical technology and knowledge, and transferring medical technologies are the measures being taken. Additionally, strategic approaches to national improvement, including economic and financial measures, effective financial procurement design, and financial resource mobilization efforts to mitigate the effects of COVID-19, are being pursued. These measures aim to enhance the resilience and sustainability of public health systems and foster systematic research and development for the preparation of effective and safe vaccines against any virus. Therefore, based on the findings of this research and similar studies, policymakers need to focus on strengthening the economic resilience of countries, in addition to implementing other policies aimed at reducing the spread of and preventing the COVID-19 disease. These actions may include policies to strengthen healthcare infrastructure, develop economic and social crisis response plans, and encourage the development of human resources needed to combat the disease and its economic impacts.

One of the new challenges for governments is to be exposed to unforeseen events or shocks. Therefore, the need to study the types of shocks which threaten the economy and their adverse effects, has led to pay attention to the issue of resilience in the field of economics. Therefore, identifying factors affecting the promotion of economic resilience and strengthening them is of great importance. However, in recent years, much attention has been paid to the impact of governments and institutions on solving economic challenges. Here, using panel data approach based on two models has been studied this issue during the period 2006-2018. In the first model, the effect of good governance on the economic resilience of the selected oil exporting countries has been studied. In the second model, with focus on the control of corruption as one of the sub-indicators of good governance, the effect of this factor on economic resilience has been investigated. The results indicate that in the first model, good governance has a positive and significant effect on economic resilience. Also in the second model, corruption control has a positive and significant effect on economic resilience. On the other hand, other research results indicate that the variables of political stability, economic globalization and social globalization in the two models have a positive and significant effect on economic resilience.

In this research, the Iran's economy resilience before and after the JCPOA and the factors affecting it are evaluated. A composite index is used to measure Iran's economic resilience. This index covers the three dimensions of economic stability, welfare effects, concentration and export variety. The results confirm that Iran's economic resilience has changed from 0.31 to 0.51 during the period 1995-2016. It should be mentioned that the size of this index decreased to its lowest level in 2013 due to the sanctions imposed by the United Nations. In addition, variables such as economic complexity, economic freedom, good governance and capital formation have positive and significant effect on the Iran's economy resilience, while the openness of the economy had a negative effect on it. The estimation results of the model show that JCPOA has had a positive and significant effect on Iran's economy resilience. This agreement has had a significant effect on Iran's economy and world markets by canceling and removing nuclear sanctions against Iran. The implementation of this agreement has facilitated the entry of technology and investment of the world's oil companies in Iran.

In the present study, the effective factors on the index of economic resilience in the countries of the Middle East region during the period 2000-2020 were experimentally evaluated. Firstly, the economic resilience index was calculated based on several sub-indices, and then the effect of factors affecting this index was examined for the oil and non-oil countries of the Middle East. The factors affecting economic resilience included technological variables, oil production, economic openness, political globalization, cultural globalization, and government spending. A dynamic ordinary least squares cointegration approach was used to achieve the objectives of the study. The results of the cointegration analysis indicated the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables studied. Based on the results obtained, except for the variable of government expenditure, the other variables mentioned had a positive effect on the economic resilience of the Middle East oil countries in the long run. However, no significant effect was found between the variable of oil production and the economic resilience of oil countries. The variable coefficient of political globalization has the most positive effect on the economic resilience of oil countries. The variables of economic openness and cultural globalization are also in the next ranks in this respect. This is despite the fact that the cultural globalization variable has the most positive effect on the economic resilience of non-oil countries in the long run. Similarly, no significant effect was observed between the government expenditure variable and the resilience of non-oil countries. According to the results, it is expected that as a result of globalization and increasing political, commercial, and cultural communication, the flow of financial, economic, social, commercial, and technological information exchange between countries will be strengthened and economic resilience will be improved by increasing the number of countries with a high level of cultural globalization.

Due to its dependence on oil revenues, Iran's economy is greatly affected by the fluctuations of the global oil market, and this effect has mainly been in a negative direction and reduced the economic growth. In fact, the risk of global oil prices has continuously had a negative effect on Iran's economic growth. One of the ways to reduce this negative effect is to increase economic resilience and strengthen it against external shocks. The question that the current research answers is, to what extent does improving economic resilience reduce the negative effects of oil price fluctuations on economic growth? To answer this question, the method of autoregression with distributed lags (ARDL) has been used and the required economic data during the years 1986-2021 have been analyzed. To measure economic resilience, the Briguglio index was used, and the residuals of the univariate Garch model were used to measure the fluctuations of the oil market. The results obtained from the estimation of the model, while confirming the negative relationship between oil market fluctuations and Iran's economic growth, show that in the long term, with the increase of each unit of the level of economic resilience (according to the Briguglio index), the oil price fluctuations on the economic growth rate is reduced by 1 percent, which is a significant amount. Based on this, economic resilience by increasing the level of economic resistance of the country can play an important role in reducing the negative effects of economic risks on economic growth.

Tax, as one of the important sources of government revenue, to invest in infrastructure and improve the welfare of households,is a function of sustainable and endogenous growth, which can be identified as the characteristic of such economies with higher resilience. In this regard, the present research investigates the effect of economic resilience on taxes using the statistical evidence of Iran's provinces during the period of 2006-2021 and the econometric approach of panel data. The results of the estimates show that with the increase of economic resilience, tax revenues have increased significantly. and have an elasticity higher than one, which indicates the stability of the government's income, in addition to this, the export ratio has a negative effect, and the high economic growth compared to the average economic growth of the country has a positive effect on tax revenues, and finally, inflation and unemployment have a significant effect on income. They do not have taxes, so focusing on endogenous growth based on internal forces is the most important factor for the stability of tax revenues.and have an elasticity higher than one, which indicates the stability of the government's income, in addition to this, the export ratio has a negative effect, and the high economic growth compared to the average economic growth of the country has a positive effect on tax revenues, and finally, inflation and unemployment have a significant effect on income. They do not have taxes, so focusing on endogenous growth based on internal forces is the most important factor for the stability of tax revenues. they do .

Economic and financial crises, hazards, natural disasters, and are an integral part of human life today, which affect the achievement of continuous and stable economic growth and development. The occurrence of joint shocks will be met with different reactions in different parts of the world. This is the difference between the resilience of different regions of the world in the face of common shocks. Therefore, filling the existing gaps between the economic resilience of developed countries and developing countries in order to achieve continuous and sustainable economic growth and development has a special place. In the present study, three productivity gaps of total factors of production, institution and abundance of natural resources are identified between the economic resilience of developed countries and developing countries. The present study seeks to investigate the effect of three variables of total factor productivity, institution and frequency of natural resources on economic resilience during the period 2007- 2016 using panel data using generalized torque (GMM) method. The results indicate the positive effect of total factor productivity, institutional quality and the intersection of the natural resources abundance and the institution on economic resilience and the negative effect of resource abundance on economic resilience.

Increasing economic resilience and promoting it against various monetary, financial and natural resource shocks to maintain economic security of countries has been discussed in the economic literature.In this study, the effect of oil revenues on the economic resilience of OIC member countries is investigated. In order to calculate the economic resilience of countries, the Briguglio resilience index has been used and the indicators have been combined using the Morris method. In the study of the effect of oil revenues on the economic resilience of the OIC member countries, the ordinary least squares and DOLS methods. The results of the study indicate that oil revenues have a positive and significant effect on the long-term economic resilience of countries. Also, the existence of political and economic stability along with controlling inflation and reducing unemployment in the economy have been identified as other factors affecting the resilience of selected Islamic countries. Therefore, in order to promote economic resilience, the economic policymakers of these countries should put the revenues from oil exports to develop economic infrastructure and apply monetary and fiscal discipline policies to control inflation and unemployment and increase the country's political and economic stability.

Impulses are seen as a fundamental challenge to sustainable and sustainable economic growth and development. When a common shock comes to the economies of different regions of the world, the reaction of the economies of each region is different. The difference in countries' response to common shocks stems from differences in their economic resilience. In the event of adverse shocks, a country with high economic resilience will return to a faster growth path before the outbreak of shock, and a country with low resilience will face disruption and slowdown in economic growth. Therefore, it is important to examine the factors affecting economic resilience in order to deal with the risks facing the economy and achieve continuous and sustainable economic growth and development. Technology Foreign Spillover from the channels of import of intermediate and capital goods, foreign direct investment or brains reverse migration is one of the most important factors that can reduce the limitations of domestic research and development and fill the gap in technology, increase competitiveness and reduce the gap in economic resilience of developing countries and developed countries. The phenomenon of globalization is another important factor that can affect economic resilience by facilitating economic, social and political relations outside the country's borders. Therefore, the present study seeks to investigate the effect of the Technology Foreign Spillovers and globalization on the economic resilience during the period 2007-2016 using panel data using generalized torque (GMM) method. The results indicate a positive and significant effect of the technology foreign spillover through two channels, import of intermediate and capital goods and globalization on economic resilience.

In the field of the new Keynesian school, this paper has been specified and estimated by the method of stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model in the small open export economy, in accordance with the structure of Iran's economy. Using the simulation results of the main model, while using the estimated parameters, the effects of oil shocks in recent years on selected macroeconomic variables have been evaluated. Determining the degree to which oil revenues affect economic indicators can, in addition to determining the degree of economic resilience, help policymakers determine future plans. The phenomenon of fluctuations in foreign exchange earnings from oil exports, due to the dependence of the structure of Iran's economy on oil revenues, affects all macroeconomic variables - both in the public and private sectors. Accordingly, it is proposed to reform the tax system and reduce dependence on oil revenues, diversify the government's revenue portfolio, commit to a balanced budget and prevent disproportionate growth of the monetary base, strengthen the role of the foreign exchange reserve fund and monetary discipline for the government.

The globalization of the economy, the increase in the volume of international investment, and the openness of trade have opened the door of countries economic to the foreign shocks and it has increased the negative effects of these shocks on economic growth. Therefore, increasing economic resilience to counteract the negative effects of these shocks has become a policy priority in different countries, and in the meantime, identifying the factors affecting economic resilience can help policymakers to make the right policies. Therefore, the present study attempted to investigate the impact of goods market efficiency, labor market efficiency and financial market efficiency on economic resilience in two groups of developing and developed selected countries during the period 2014-2018. For this purpose, the research model is estimated using panel data approach and generalized moment method separately for the two groups of selected countries. The results showed that the effect of goods market efficiency, labor market efficiency and financial market efficiency on economic resilience in both groups of selected countries is positive and significant. However, the estimated coefficient of goods market efficiency and labor market efficiency in developing selected countries and the estimated coefficient of financial market efficiency in developed selected countries have been higher. Also, the impact of control variables of institutional quality and innovation on economic resilience in both groups of selected countries is positive and significant.

Economic resilience refers to the ability of an economy to be resilient to economic shocks. Returning to the same growth path before the shock is not necessarily desirable, especially if the previous growth path is lower than the growth path at the time of the shock. Therefore, the effect of shocks to the country's economy and the response of economic resilience to these shocks should be examined. In the present study, using the data of Iran in a period of 36 years between 1361-1396, this issue has been studied. The results show that in the long run, interest rate shocks cause the economy to reach a level below the previous equilibrium level and other shocks cause the economy to reach a level above the pre-shock equilibrium level.In the present study, to investigate the economic resilience response to economic shocks in Iran, by the method of impulse response analysis (IR) in vector auto-regressive (VAR) models using data from the databases of the Central Bank of Iran and the world Bank  and Eviews9 software used.

Planning regions always face many demanding situations that can deter regional perspective and goals; due to this fact, the resilience notion is becoming more and more topical concept in planning. It seems that in Iran there is no integrated framework for assessing regional resilience, especially from an economic perspective; therefore, the aim of this article is set to define a resilient economy framework at the regional scale. Based on library study and relevant stockholders' opinions, six main criteria considered, followed by some sub-criteria, namely “the variety and dependency of the economy”, “regional relation type with the external environment”, “the rate of dependency to innovation”, “the condition of regional firms”, “the condition of regional families”, “the type of regional economic sectors connections”, and “good governance". Our analyses showed that the Tehran region faced a long shock, about five years and the recovery process was much faster than the national level. However, the national level experienced three short shocks between 2006-2007, 2009-2010, and 2011-2012 years. These shocks were short and periodically happened; thus, this situation led to weakening the resilience capacity. Overall, the Tehran region is more resilient than the national level, mainly thanks to innovation, productivity, power of economic variety, and numbers of modules.

The ability of a system, community, or community affected by risks to deal with, absorb, adapt and rehabilitate in time against the effects of a risk and an effective way to protect and restore the important functions and basic structures of society against the crisis. Avari is said to have many dimensions, but the economic dimension of this concept is discussed in the article. And it has always been important in the country, its study is very important in the field of resilience. The process of this research is descriptive-analytical in terms of purpose, type, and type of research method and has an "exploratory approach" to the future. The present study consists of two parts. In the first part, in order to create a database of the basic factors available on economic resilience (data collection and information), environmental scanning technique (study of resistance and print resources, interviews with experts, and monitoring conferences), and a review of the literature used. For this purpose, information was collected through documentary sources, libraries, and surveys and combined with the variables obtained from interviews with urban resilience experts and specialists. In the second part, experts and elites (25 people) were asked to identify the most important key factors affecting the economic resilience of Tabriz within the next 10 years. Finally, by identifying the factors affecting the economic resilience of Tabriz to formulate an aggressive strategy, Comparative, contingency, and defensive strategies were discussed.

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the effect of macroeconomic resilience on credit risk of the banking system using annual data (2005-2016) for 125 countries in the form of GMM Model. The results show that the components of Good Governance, Market Flexibility and Human Development on credit risk is negative and significant. The effects of macroec-onomic instability variables and the cost of starting a business on credit risk is positive and significant. In addition, the misery index (the sum of inflation and unemployment rates), human development, Nonperformance loan in the past year, and political stability have had the highest degree of impact on the credit risk of the banking system. Also the cross effect of political stability and good governance with macroeconomic imbalances has reduced the credit risk of the banking system. The effect of nonperformance loan in the previous period and the ratio of profit margin to gross income, and the effect of capital adequacy ratios are negative and significant.

The vulnerability of Iranian economy to various shocks has attracted attention to economic resilience. In this regard, foreign trade, which is inherently more exposed to shocks, merits careful consideration. In order to examine the effects of imports on economic resilience, a small-scale macroeconometric model has been specified. Having solved the model and run simulations, the effects of shocks stemming from imports on GDP is measured. This study, for the first time, quantifies the concept of resilience by examining the implications of economic shocks in a large-scale macro-econometric model. Accordingly, the modeled system received three types of shocks caused by the imports of consumer, intermediate, and capital goods. Then, the magnitude of their effects on GDP as well as the pace in which the variables back to their equilibrium are analyzed. The results demonstrate that the shocks coming from intermediate goods have the most severe consequences and threaten Iranian economy severely.

One of the important components of the resistance economy is economic resilience. It is once a resilient economic system that can absorb temporary or permanent risks and adapt itself to rapidly changing circumstances without losing its function. The issue of economic resilience for countries with a single-product economy is far more important because these countries are severely vulnerable to various shocks due to their dependence on the income of a particular product (such as oil). Therefore, the main objective of this study is to measure the resilience of economies in single-member economies during the period of 1995-1956. For this purpose, based on the export concentration index, Angola, Azerbaijan, Botswana, Chad, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Iran, Iraq, Mali, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Yemen were selected for study. . Economic Indicators of Resilience to Study According to Anhion and Bats (2015), household consumption, exports, GDP, public expenditures, gross capital formation, food imports, imports and inflation. In this study, Shannon's entropy method was used for weight loss and topsis method, numerical taxonomy, weighted average for ranking of resilience indices were used. In addition, using the Spearman-Shannon method, these three methods were compared. The main results of the study are: 1. Among the indicators of resilience, the final consumption expenditure of the state is most important.2. Compared to most countries, Iran has a favorable economic resilience with a single-product economy, but is not well positioned compared to countries in the region, such as Saudi Arabia.

In recent years, the reduction of economic vulnerability has become one of the goals of many policymakers, and the identification of effective factors on reducing vulnerability is of great importance. This issue is more important for the Iranian economy, which needs to be more resilient. The question of the paper is that, considering the global literature on the complexity index, is the improvement of the complexity of the economy affecting the vulnerability index? After specifying the theoretical framework, the paper tests the data of 118 countries using a panel data model in the period (1997-1993). The results of the research show that: economic complexity and good governance both have a negative and significant impact on economic vulnerability. The recommendation is to focus on improving the quality of governance, the complexity of the economy (diversification and the knowledge base of exports), and the reduction of the share of oil exports, in order to reduce the vulnerability of the Iranian economy.

Measuring of Economic Resistance in Iran (During 2011-2017) Abstract The aim of this study is to measure the resistive economy and to estimate economic resilience indicators. The general policies of the resistance economy was proclaimed with the approach of jihadi, flexible, opportunistic, productive, endogenous, progressive and extrovert to provide dynamic growth and improve economic resistance indicators and achieve the goals of 20-Year Vision Plan in 2013. In this article an attempt has done for measuring and evaluation of economic resistance & economic resilience in Iran in during 2011 to 2016 by using composite economic indicator and assigning weights for each indicator by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP method). The result of the composite economic indicator reveals that Iran's resistive economy situation move to be going forward, but in some goals as knowledge based economy, extroverting and improving in economic justice indicators, the results is not acceptable. Keywords: Resistive Economy, Economic Resilience, Economic vulnerability, Composite economic indicator, neighboring countries,

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the effect of macroeconomic resilience on the probability of bankruptcy of the banking system in its various frameworks (Briguglio - Boorman) using annual data (2005-2016) for 125 countries in the form of models Logite and Probit. Overall results show that the increases of economic resilience and economic growth rate have reduced the probability of bankruptcy. Based on Briguglio model, the effect of increasing good governance and market efficiency on the probability of bankruptcy is negative, and increasing macroeconomic instability has increased the probability of bankruptcy. In the pattern of Boorman, The growth of variables such as good governance, the health of monetary policy, foreign power, export independence, bank credit and reserves have reduced the probability of bankruptcy and increased budget deficits have increased the probability of bankruptcy. Also, the improvement of institutions with the effect on macroeconomic instability has reduced the probability of bankruptcy. The effect of nonperformance loan has been positive and the effect of the ratio of capital adequacy ratio, margin of profit, return on assets and the existence of cash assets is negative.