جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « رویکرد غیرخطی » در نشریات گروه « اقتصاد »

The aim of this article was forming a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model for Iran's economy in terms of the specific characteristics of the country's economy. After the experimental analysis of the model, the calibration of the model parameters was done; This means that the parameters of the model were tried to be set in such a way that the highest match between the real statistics and the simulations made by the model is achieved. For this purpose, information from previous studies or some special features of statistics were used to calibrate the parameters, and in some cases, the desired parameters were calibrated using the statistics of Iran's economy. In the next step, the presented model was simulated using Diner program. The results provided by the Diner program include a summary of the moments of the simulated variables and the instantaneous reaction functions of these variables equal to the shocks included in the model. In this study, the model was simulated in three different cases. In the first case, the policy reaction functions were not included in the central bank's decision-making, and in the next two cases, the reaction functions were included in the model, according to which the central bank is one of the two scenarios. Inflation control (through monetary base control) and exchange rate control (through intervention in the currency market) are taken as monetary policy. The obtained results indicate a high similarity between the model values and the real statistics values. Then, the behavior of the reaction functions of the variables in response to the exogenous shocks of the model (oil income shock and technology shock) was investigated.

The exchange rate is one of the most important macroeconomic variables that affects different sectors of the economy from various aspects. Due to the considerable impact of industrial development on the country's economic development, this research attempts to evaluate the asymmetric effect of the exchange rate on the value added of the industrial sector for the period of 1380:1 - 1400:4, using the NARDL method. The results of the estimation show that the effect of the exchange rate on the value added of the industrial sector is asymmetric, such that an increase in the exchange rate affects the value added of the industrial sector differently from a decrease in the exchange rate. The effect of the exchange rate in the long term is such that the positive changes in the exchange rate strengthen the value added of the industrial sector, and the decrease in the exchange rate does not affect it. Therefore, the economic policymaker should abandon exchange rate suppression as an inflation control policy and allow the exchange rate to be determined based on market forces.

The issue of government intervention in the economy is one of the issues that, despite its high importance for the Iranian economy, little research has been done on it. Among the reasons that justify government intervention in the economy are the production of public goods and services, redistribution of income, stabilization of the economy, natural monopoly and external positive and negative factors. On the other hand, today, capital markets as financial and economic exchanges of companies play an important role in the financial sector and the prosperity of economic activities. An efficient capital market can improve economic growth and attract domestic and foreign capital and play an important role in the process of economic development by stabilizing the financial sector and providing a suitable environment. Some experts believe that the continuous intervention of the government in the process of valuing stock exchange symbols in the capital market has prevented the economic growth and development of the country and is to the detriment of GDP. One of the threats that currently threatens the stock market as a financial market is the involvement of the Ministry of Economy and other government departments in determining the value of stock exchange symbols, and if government officials are not prevented from interfering in the daily stock valuation process, liquidity from the stock market It will move to other parallel markets. On the other hand, we know that stock prices in the capital market are determined entirely on the basis of supply and demand and such things as (environmental or macro factors, industry-related factors and internal factors or within the company. According to the explanations provided, the issue that the present study seeks is what are the effects of government interventions on the capital market during the years 1992-2021?