جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « currency shock » در نشریات گروه « اقتصاد »

In the field of the new Keynesian school, this paper has been specified and estimated by the method of stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model in the small open export economy, in accordance with the structure of Iran's economy. Using the simulation results of the main model, while using the estimated parameters, the effects of oil shocks in recent years on selected macroeconomic variables have been evaluated. Determining the degree to which oil revenues affect economic indicators can, in addition to determining the degree of economic resilience, help policymakers determine future plans. The phenomenon of fluctuations in foreign exchange earnings from oil exports, due to the dependence of the structure of Iran's economy on oil revenues, affects all macroeconomic variables - both in the public and private sectors. Accordingly, it is proposed to reform the tax system and reduce dependence on oil revenues, diversify the government's revenue portfolio, commit to a balanced budget and prevent disproportionate growth of the monetary base, strengthen the role of the foreign exchange reserve fund and monetary discipline for the government.

This paper analyzes the effect of currency shocks, economic sanctions, and oil prices on the housing market in Iranian economy using the SVAR Model (Structural Vector Autoregressive) for 1984-2019. According to the results of SVAR model, an impulse from the oil price would increase housing prices by 78%, while a currency exchange rate and sanctions impulse would increase housing prices by %174 and 83% respectively. It can be argued that the rise in oil revenues is largely unmanaged, and long-term investments have been spent on short-term expenditures, which has resulted to inflation, increased liquidity and a devaluation of the national currency. Thus, the shocks of rising oil revenues have largely led to increased liquidity and thus to higher prices due to the lack of sound financial planning by governments. Planning and optimizing economic sectors to control the government deficit and thus borrowing from the central bank, which is one of the most important drivers of liquidity growth and rising prices it is very important during sanctions. Overall, the government financial irregularities, insufficient attention to manufacturing infrastructure has led to a rapid increase in liquidity growth and price levels in society, which in such circumstances exacerbates the effects of currency shocks, economic sanctions and oil price fluctuations on the housing market

In this paper we specify and estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for an oil exporting and small open economy in accordance with the structure of the Iranian economy. The paper aims to examine the effects and also the mechanism of monetary, fiscal, oil export revenues and foreign exchange shocks on real and nominal macroeconomic variables. Our simulation results show that about 40 percent of any monetary base growth leads to inflation. Fiscal policy stimulates aggregate demand and increases inflation as well. But, the intensity and the amount of influence of current and development budget is not the same, the effect of development budget depends on the length of delays in implementation of state projects. Most of the macroeconomic variables are affected as a result of an oil shock due to dependency of Iran's economy on petro dollars. Although most of the economic operation use official exchange rate, parallel exchange rate affects significantly on the real and nominal variables due to private sector expectations. The details and the exact amount of effects of each shocks is presented in the full text of the paper.In this paper we specify and estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for an oil exporting and small open economy in accordance with the structure of the Iranian economy. The paper aims to examine the effects and also the mechanism of monetary, fiscal, oil export revenues and foreign exchange shocks on real and nominal macroeconomic variables. Our simulation results show that about 40 percent of any monetary base growth leads to inflation. Fiscal policy stimulates aggregate demand and increases inflation as well. But, the intensity and the amount of influence of current and development budget is not the same, the effect of development budget depends on the length of delays in implementation of state projects. Most of the macroeconomic variables are affected as a result of an oil shock due to dependency of Iran's economy on petro dollars. Although most of the economic operation use official exchange rate, parallel exchange rate affects significantly on the real and nominal variables due to private sector expectations. The details and the exact amount of effects of each shocks is presented in the full text of the paper.