جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « monetary base » در نشریات گروه « اقتصاد »

According to the economic literature, the exchange rate is one of the important channels of money transfer, so that changes in the exchange rate play an important role in creating the competitiveness and uncertainty of the economy. This can put monetary policy changes on inflation and production growth under different conditions in different conditions. In this regard, this article has investigated the role of exchange rate in the effect of money on inflation and gross domestic product growth by using the seasonal time series data of 1370-1400 and using the time-varying auto-correlation parameter method (TVP-VAR). The results of this study show that the lower the variance of the exchange rate growth, the more effective the monetary policy is in curbing inflation. On the other hand, if the average growth of the exchange rate is close to the growth of the monetary base, then the monetary policy will increase production. Also, if the exchange rate grows more than the monetary base, inflation increases and GDP growth decreases. The results of this research confirm that the growth of the monetary base more than the economic capacity leads to an increase in inflation and a decrease in production growth, and this inflationary process leads to an increase in the exchange rate. In such a structure of the economy, where high money printing is a prominent feature, the suppression of the exchange rate provides the basis for increasing the currency jump, and the currency jump is an important factor in strengthening the recessionary inflation in the economy. Therefore, the policy recommendation of the present study is to reduce the growth of the monetary base and not to manipulate the exchange rate

According to economic views, money can have nominal and real effects on economic variables. Meanwhile, changes in the monetary base in the economy can be considered a function of the changes in the central bank's financial assets. Central banks in countries are responsible for issuing banknotes. This bank uses foreign exchange reserves, gold reserves, claims from the government and claims from banks as a basis for issuing banknotes. The debt of the central bank is also the bills and securities in the hands of the people, the legal, additional and precautionary reserves of commercial banks. The main purpose of this paper was to examine the relationship between monetary base components and production and inflation in Iran's economy. In this regard, using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) in the time periods of 1989-2022, the relationship between the variables was estimated. The obtained results showed that the variable effect of commercial banks' debt to the central bank on production and inflation is 0.33 and 0.62, respectively, and the net effect of public sector debt to the central bank on production and inflation is 42, respectively. 0.0 and 0.57. Considering the results obtained and the importance of paying attention to the contribution of each component of the monetary base on inflation and production in the country, the central bank should pay more attention to changing the share of the components of the monetary base and be disciplined in the growth of the sectors that have a high contribution to the country's inflation.

In recent decades, the role of the capital market and the expansion of financial markets had a relatively high relationship with the economic growth of countries. Countries such as America, Japan, England, South Korea, Singapore and other developed countries have made great use of these financial markets and especially the stock exchange for economic development and growth. In this research, by conducting the ARDL test in the period of 1991-2020, we investigated the long-term and short-term relationships between the variables, with a one percent change in the variables of liquidity and consumer price index, respectively, 26. 4.0.34% will be added to the stock price index of Tehran Stock Exchange. the coefficients of all variables can be interpreted at a significant level of 5%. with a one percent change in the variables of liquidity volume and consumer price index, 1.46, 0.52 percent will be added to the stock price index of Tehran Stock Exchange, respectively. Meanwhile, with a one percent change in monetary base variables and financial development, the stock price index of Tehran Stock Exchange will decrease by 0.86% and 0.67%, respectively. it can be said that with increasing liquidity and after that, the price level increases, the value of assets and production inputs of companies and economic institutions increases. If the price increase of listed companies' products is more than the growth of production costs, the profits of companies will increase and inflation from the future cash flow channel of earnings can have a positive effect on stock prices.

In the economic literature, increasing each of the components of the monetary base by the same coefficient called the multiplier increases liquidity. But in reality, the degree of impact of each component of the monetary base on liquidity may be different. If so, in addition to the monetary base, the composition of the monetary base components can also affect liquidity.Therefore, the present study seeks to investigate the impact of each of the monetary base components on liquidity. To do this, the research model was designed based on theoretical foundations. Data for the period 1978-2018 were collected from the time series database of the Central Bank. The model was estimated by Johansen-Joslius cointegration method. The results showed that all components of the monetary base have a positive and significant effect on liquidity. But the degree of impact or in other words the impact factor of these components are different from each other. So that banks' debt to the central bank with a coefficient of 8.146 has the greatest impact on liquidity. The net debt of the government to the central bank with a coefficient of 2.292 is in the second place and the foreign assets of the central bank with a coefficient of 1.499 have the least impact on liquidity.In terms of the impact on liquidity, the variable of banks' debt to the central bank varies approximately 3.5 times the net government debt to the central bank and 5.5 times the foreign assets of the central bank affect liquidity.

In the conventional view of economics, the money supply is determined exogenously by the central bank. So that by creating a monetary base, the central bank has increased bank loans and deposits, and as a result, money creation is widespread. This view has been challenged by the Post Keynesian. According to Post Keynesian theory, the starting point for money creation is lending by commercial banks, which creates new bank deposits, which in turn increases the volume of reserves, leading to a massive money supply, so the money supply It is endogenous. The present study examines post Keynesian theory in the Iranian economy. To conduct this research, 1978-2017 data have been used. Analyzes were performed using Granger causality test and Wald test. The results showed that both bank loans and bank deposits are the cause of the monetary base and were not approved for causation from the monetary base to bank loans and deposits. Therefore, the hypothesis of post-Keynesian monetary base endogeneity in the Iranian economy was confirmed. The results also show that bank loans and bank deposits are the common cause of large money supply. As a result, the hypothesis of widespread endogenous post-Keynesian money in the Iranian economy is confirmed. According to the results, in order to manage the money supply and liquidity in the Iranian economy, a review of monetary policy in terms of endogenous money supply is proposed

An examination of the inflation trend in Iran shows that this variable has had fluctuating fluctuations. Instability Inflation affects many economic variables. Inflation and its instability are affected by various economic variables, including the behavior of the central bank, part of which is due to changes in the components of the monetary base. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the overflow of fluctuations in foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank on inflation fluctuations in the Iranian economy during the period 1352: 1 to 1395: 4 using the MGARCH-BEEK model. The obtained results show that the shocks and fluctuations of the previous period have a direct and significant effect on the fluctuations of the current period inflation rate. Also, the shocks of the previous period of the central bank's foreign exchange reserves have a direct impact on the fluctuations of the current period of the central bank's foreign exchange reserves. But the shocks of the previous period of inflation do not affect the fluctuations of the central bank's foreign exchange reserves. The results also show that the shocks of the previous period of the central bank's foreign exchange reserves have a significant and direct effect on inflation fluctuations. This means that the overflow of fluctuations in foreign exchange reserves on the inflation rate has occurred in the Iranian economy and shocks caused by foreign exchange reserves lead to uncertainty and inflation turbulence.

In recent decades, the inflation phenomenon has been one of the most important issues for Iranian economy. Regardless of its effects on economy, identifying the determinants of inflation has always been a challenge in all economies. Therefore, in order to compare the endogenous money theory with the quantity theory of money, this study analyzes the relationship between inflation and its determinants. To this end, the spectral analysis approach at high and low frequencies is applied during the period 1991: Q1 to 2018: Q1. The results show that there is the causality relationship from the growth of liquidity towards inflation as well as from inflation to liquidity in the short- term and long-term. In addition, there is the causality relationship from the monetary base growth to inflation in the long-term, while this causal relationship runs from monetary base growth towards inflation in the short-term. Moreover, the causality relationship from money multiplier growth to inflation is confirmed in the long-term. Consequently, the causes of inflation are different in the short- and long-term.

Emphasizing on designing the four paths of oil and energy impact on the Iranian economy, a New-Keynesian comprehensive DSGE model is simulated. In the present study, shocks in the form of two important paths monetary base and government oil revenues are analyzed. Monetary impulses, in addition to inflation, instantly have a positive impact on nominal and real exchange rates, firms’ investment, employment, production, import of consumer and capital goods. The impulse for government oil revenues in the first period will also increase government development and current expenditure, general price level, import of capital and consumer goods, and household consumption. Then the demand side of the economy is expanded cross-sectionally and increased non-oil production at the rate of 0.8%. In contrast, with the decline in private sector investment and employment, non-oil production has fallen sharply over two periods, even falling from a stable long-term situation, which means that the Resource Curse in the Iranian economy is realizing. On the other hand, as a result of the shocks in oil revenues, the Crowding-Out Effect on the Iranian economy will be strengthened as government capital spending increases and firms' investments decrease.

In the current research, using the wavelet method and coherence analysis, it is tried to redefine the relationship between the growth of money (the monetary base and liquidity) and inflation in the economy of Iran. To this end, using the available seasonal data (1982-2017), the coherence of these variables is investigated in different time periods. Unexpectedly, the results indicate that in assessment of the relationship between liquidity and inflation, monetary policies based on liquidity changes has no significant impact on the inflation, but the growth of monetary base in the middle and long term has a direct relationship with inflation and this justifies quantity money theory in Iran more than liquidity variable. Therefore, it seems that, in the long run, the change in liquidity factor is not a suitable strategy for Iran's economy, but in the case of the monetary base, the result is somewhat different and shows in the medium and long term it will have significant impact on monetary policy and inflation. In other words, despite the current study suggests the liquidity variable is endogenous (lag effect) in the short and middle term, but according to available information, one cannot rule out the exogenous hypothesis of the monetary base in the Iranian economy. So, in the long run, on the basis of quantity money theory, money supply (especially monetary base) is still a powerful policy tool owned by the Central Bank of Iran. It is important to note that with regard to special potential of wavelet method in which the simultaneous investigation of short-term and long-term causality is done between time series of variables and the severity of the relationship between them, one cannot consider the inflation as a monetary phenomenon in all periods of times.

High inflation, along with challenges such as low economic growth (compared to other countries and compared to target values in the fifth development plan), demographic shocks and high unemployment rates, especially in youth, monetary and fiscal discrepancies, exchange rate fluctuations, lack of planning Correct, policy making, government economy, unhealthy competition, widespread political rents, sanctions, budget dependency on oil, mismanagement and weakness of institutions, privatization, implementation of the second phase of targeting subsidies and lack of political stability, One of the most important challenges facing the Iranian economy. In macroeconomic variables, inflation seems to be the most important and chronic challenge facing the Iranian economy over the last few decades. Due to the destructive effects of inflation on the economy, its control as one of the goals of macroeconomic policies has always been a matter for economists. The persistent and chronic inflation of these days of the Iranian economy is a phenomenon whose causes have been rooted in many years.
This article seeks to study the factors influencing inflation as the main challenge of the present Iranian economy, based on theoretical literature of macroeconomics in the field of inflation and the revealed facts of the Iranian economy. For this purpose, considering that at least two variables of oil exports and institutional variables are as external variables of the model, so, in this study, the specific patterns of VARX have been used. The VARX has this feature, In addition to the exogenous consideration of a variable in VAR, enables us to examine the effect of this variable's impact on other variables of the pattern using the shake reaction function. In the end, using the estimated macroeconomic model, we will predict inflation under different scenarios for the money base growth rate. According to the review period (1352-1944), forecasts for the three years of 2012-2013 will be based on two scenarios (the growth scenario of 30% of the monetary base and the growth scenario of 10% of the monetary base).
The results showed that monetary base variables, exchange rate and oil exports have a positive effect on inflation. Also, the variable of economic freedom is negative, which indicates a negative relationship between prices and economic freedom. The results of the impulse response functions also showed that due to a monetary shock, exchange rate and oil exports, the level of prices would increase, but with a decreasing rate. The results of the Bootstrap method show that the above-mentioned shocks increase the level of prices and remain at the same level. Also, for the shock caused by two variables of production and economic freedom, it is also seen that the level of prices has fallen. Using estimated macroeconomic model, we predicted inflation under two different scenarios for liquidity. In the first scenario (the current situation), oil exports are stable at the same level in 1394, the economic freedom index is fixed at the same level in 1394 and the annual growth money base is 30%. In the second scenario, the same assumptions exist, except that the base money growth is 10% annually. According to the reviewed period (1352-1394), the predictions were made for three years, 1395-1397. The results show that the difference in inflation under these two scenarios will be 3.6, 7.4 and 9 percent, respectively, during the years 2012-2013. That is, controlling the growth of the monetary base can control inflation in part. Of course, this should not be forgotten that severe monetary contraction policies could affect economic growth.

The most important aspect of financial development is the banking sector that has significant impact on the process of equipping the savings, identifying investment opportunities and diversifying the risk. Economic freedom is a determinant factor in developing the banking sector. The increase of economic freedom provides the setting of financial resources equipment, strengthens the sense of bank deposit in general population to guide them for limited capital in productive activities. Hence, in this study, the impact of economic freedom index on the development of the banking sector in Iran during 1980-2011 will be discussed. The results represent that economic freedom and its components have a significant and positive relationship to the development of banking sector. Also, based on the results, the estimation of the impact of central bank foreign assets on monetary base and Real interest rate on the development of banking sector is positive and significant. Also, the effect of public sector debt to central bank on monetary base is negative but significant.