جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « تراز تجاری » در نشریات گروه « مدیریت »

Exchange rate is one of the effective factors on foreign trade. Besides the role of exchange rate in economy and economic conditions, its volatility has also an important effect. Exchange rate variation, in countries like Iran that the bulk of government revenues are provided from exports of oil, can affect economic performance. This study investigates the effect of real exchange rate and its uncertainty on Iran’s nonoil exports, imports and trade balance using quarterly data during 1374-1395. For this purpose, the real exchange rate uncertainty, using asymmetric stochastic volatility model which is more flexible than ARCH models, is calculated. Then the effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on Iran’s nonoil exports, imports and trade balance based on the Johansen – Juselius cointegration framework is estimated. The results, based on the three models, show that the real exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on Iran’s nonoil exports, imports and trade balance in the long run. Also, the real exchange rate uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on Iran’s nonoil exports and trade balance and a negative effect on imports.

As the economy of Iran''s dependence on oil revenues turns the country''s economy vulnerable to foreign fluctuations and shocks resulting in exchange rate crises، it is highly recommended to promote non-oil exports. Therefore، the factors effective on Iran''s trade balance with its main trade partners، getting the highest amounts of Iran''s non-oil exports are pivotal. This article is to study the factors influencing Iran''s trade balance in the form of integrated data on six major trade partners of Iran within the period 1979-2009 based on Bahmani-Oskooee & Brooks model (1999) via ARDL method on the basis of Pesaran and et al. (2001). The results indicate that Iran''s GDP and Exchange Rate Volatility have negative impact on Iran''s trade balance while Iran''s six major trade partners'' integrated GDP and the exchange rates have positive influence on it.