ریسک های زنجیره تامین

Petrochemical industry, as a set of project-oriented organizations with complex research projects and industrial development with high technology, in order to deal with changes in the environment and the need for exploitation and achieve strategic goals always need to use tools and It has new methods to reduce costs, improve quality and time in order to better, effectively and efficiently manage its projects. The success of research projects and the development of the petrochemical industry is highly dependent on having strong and sustainable supply chains, and competition between petrochemical project-oriented organizations has become competition between their supply chains. The main purpose of this article is to identify the effective factors in how to manage the supply chain. The present study was applied in terms of method, descriptive-survey in terms of purpose and one-time in terms of time. The statistical population consisted of 40 supply chain specialists in Shiraz Petrochemical Company due to the limited number of members based on the census method. The data analysis method is based on a hierarchical process that the results showed that producer risks as the most important criterion of supply chain risk with a degree of importance of 0.410 in the first place and then end customer risks with a degree of importance of 0.269, supplier risks with Significance of 0.212 and finally distributor risks with importance of 0.109 were ranked second to fourth.

In light of the continuous and rapid changes in global competition, companies face the imperative of consistently introducing new products or expanding their existing product lines to maintain their competitive edge. Recognizing that numerous factors within the supply chain influence the production, design, distribution, and introduction of new products, understanding supply chain risks is crucial, spanning from the procurement of raw materials to the delivery of products to the market. Consequently, risk management stands as one of the most critical challenges within the supply chain, significantly impacting New Product Development (NPD) performance. This research seeks to answer the primary question: "How and to what extent do various supply chain risks affect newly developed products?" While prior research has employed various methods to evaluate and manage supply chain risks, few models have explored the interplay of these risks on each other and their influence on performance dimensions. In this study, based on a review of theoretical foundations and prior research within the clothing manufacturing sector, we identified dimensions of newly developed products and supply chain risks. We employed the Delphi technique through interviews to identify the most significant risks. Subsequently, we employed the Cross-Impact Analysis method to elucidate relationships between these factors. Finally, we utilized Bayesian networks to analyze the impact of identified risks on the performance of the selected new product, conducting sensitivity and scenario analyses. The findings indicate that environmental and supply risks are more likely to manifest than other risks, with three operational, distribution, and demand risks, influenced by environmental and supply risks, exerting the most direct impact on new product performance, particularly in the dimension of quality.IntroductionModern organizations recognize that traditional competitive strategies, such as improving quality and reducing costs, no longer suffice to remain competitive. Research has demonstrated that numerous new product development NPD projects face failure for various reasons. Effective risk identification and management, particularly concerning supply chain risks in NPD projects marked by a high degree of uncertainty, emerge as pivotal factors for NPD success. In this context, the clothing sector, characterized by a complex supply chain structure, has been extensively studied. However, prior research has predominantly examined existing risks individually, overlooking the interactions between risk components and their simultaneous effects on one or more project objectives. In this research, we not only assess the simultaneous impact of risks on product performance using the Bayesian network method, an effective approach in supply chain risk analysis, but also investigate the severity of risk impacts under different scenarios. This research addresses three primary

Identification of supply chain risks in the clothing industry based on background research and case studies.Determination of interdependencies among variables using conditional modeling.Evaluation of the influence of supply chain risks on new product performance using the Bayesian network method under varying scenarios.Literature reviewNumerous researchers have investigated supply chain risks and their repercussions on product and organizational performance. Asgharenjad Nouri et al. (2021), in their article titled "The Effect of Risk Management on New Product Development in the Banking Industry," explored the impact of various risk indicators on new product development. Their results underscore the significant positive influence of managing all risk indicators, including technology, market, environment, finance, organizational resources, and commercialization, on new product development. Qazi et al. (2017), in their article titled “Supply Chain Risk Network Management,” prioritized risks and corresponding strategies through a case study involving semi-structured interviews. They initially identified organizational performance criteria and then linked them to relevant risks, using a matrix of expected profit to investigate the impact of risks on specified performance criteria. Subsequently, they employed the "weighted net evaluation" method to assess practical strategies.MethodologyIn conducting this research, we initially extracted supply chain risks and product performance dimensions from the existing literature. Subsequently, we employed the Delphi technique to select the most significant supply chain risks, providing indicators to participating experts through questionnaires with a 5-point Likert scale. We then used the Content Validity Ratio (CVR) index to confirm or reject the components derived from the questionnaires. In the next step, we used the Cross-Impact Analysis method, employing pairwise comparisons via questionnaires, to reveal relationships between the key risk criteria. Finally, we investigated the impact of identified risks on the performance of the selected new product within the supply chain of Happy Land factory using the Bayesian network method under various scenarios.Discussion and ResultsThe results from the Bayesian network analysis in this research demonstrate that environmental risk, as an external risk within Happy Land’s supply chain, exerts the most significant influence at the highest level of the Bayesian map. Subsequently, other risks, including economic risks, supplier risks, distribution risks, operational risks, and demand risks, are categorized in subsequent levels. Additionally, sensitivity analysis scenarios, depicted in the Tornado chart, reveal that supply chain risks have a substantial impact on performance criteria. According to this scenario analysis, the primary risk affecting quality and cost target nodes is operational risk, while the major risk affecting the product delivery time node is distribution risk, and the primary risk influencing profitability is demand risk. Results from both pessimistic and optimistic scenario analyses under the second scenario of the research indicate that in the pessimistic state, the presence of a high percentage of these risks significantly negatively impacts quality performance. Conversely, in optimistic scenarios, where these risk factors are not present, improvements in quality's functional dimension exhibit the most substantial impact.ConclusionWhen introducing a new product to the market, evaluating and managing supply chain uncertainties is essential due to the mutual influence of new product development and the supply chain. Supply chain risk management, which commences with the accurate identification and assessment of risks and proceeds with appropriate responses, is crucial for providing efficient and effective new products to the market. In addition to employing the Bayesian network method, a highly effective tool in supply chain risk analysis, we have endeavored to evaluate the simultaneous impact of risks on product performance and assess the severity of risk impacts under various scenarios, including optimistic, pessimistic, and sensitivity analyses. Scenario building proves to be an effective method for validating a developed model to measure the impact of risks under different conditions on target criteria.

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The aim of this article is to investigate the impact of supply chain risk on the buying behavior of active companies in Mobarakeh Steel Complex (MSC). This study, is of mixed type in terms of the nature and type of the data, is fundamental and applied in terms of the purpose, is descriptive in terms of implementation, and is exploratory in terms of method. The study was carried out in two stages using qualitative and quantitative methods. In the qualitative stage, case study was used as the research methodology. The statistical population included the purchase managers from MSC and its suppliers, from which snowball sampling method was used to select 20 managers for interviews. Interview was used as the data collection tool, and the qualitative data analysis was carried out using the qualitative content analysis method. The analysis was performed using open, central and selective coding methods along with providing documentary evidence. In the quantitative stage, descriptive research method was applied to determine the size of the sample using Karjesi and Morgan's sampling table. Among more than 80 active supplier companies, a sample of 66 companies was selected, of which 62 completed questionnaires were obtained. The data analysis showed that there is a significant relationship between the risk of foreign suppliers and the buying behavior of industrial customers. In addition, the results of the study indicated that in the steel industry, communication systems and environmental factors have less impact than other factors, since suppliers are more concerned about price and quality, which are the main priorities of MSC.

Happening various crisis on efficiency and effectiveness of enterprises and organizations supply chain, has made organizational researchers and expertise so willing for more attention and studies on the concept of risk in supply chain and how to confronting with that. Resiliency and its strategies are one of the newest concept in supply chain is as an approach for facing and managing probable risk in supply chain. As the importance of subject, this paper by using organizational expert’s ideas to identification of proper strategy for implementation in a manufacturing company based on recent resilience supply chain studies. For this purpose an innovative hybrid approach of Game Theory model and multi criteria decision making (MCDM (methods in the fuzzy environment has been applied. At first pay-off matrix with non-constant sum game was formed then multiple criteria has been identified for finding best strategies between multiple Nash equilibrium. Then FAHP and FVIKOR has been used for determining weight of criteria and choosing best strategy respectively and with respect to expert’s viewpoints. In this regard, the results showed that from the point of view of experts and organizational experts to choose the best strategy, the criterion of the cost of implementing the strategy has highest importance degree, as well as among the three equilibrium combinations strategy, increasing visibility and increasing velocity strategy is the best strategy combination to enhance supply chain resiliency.

In the recent years, there has been an increase in the likelihood of the occurrence of the risks and unexpected events in supply chains. As a result, supply chains are more vulnerable to disruption and the risks on supply chain continuity has increased. The ability to manage risks and disruptions is one important aspect that differentiates between successful business leaders and others. This present research, therefore, attempts to present a system-wide approach to conceptualize a novel -to our knowledge- supply chain continuity management model. First, a systematic literature review was conducted to identify and explore appropriate capabilities and strategies that can be employed to improve the continuity of a supply chain. Then, a Fuzzy Axiomatic Design (FAD) approach was used to develop a supply chain continuity management model in automobile industry. In each step, independence and information axioms were used to evaluate the identified solutions.

Since the dynamics of logistics and sales markets and so the uncertainty of planning has increased, companies should be able to make informed decisions under risk. The key characteristic of supply chain risk is that risk gets extended beyond the borders of a company. In addition, extended currents borders can be the source of supply chain risk. The purpose of this study is to identify risks in the supply chain of Zagros Petrochemical Company, prioritize risks and provide recommendations for managers to deal with them. In order to achieve these objectives, after the supply chain risks were categorized, the empirical data used in this study which is based on questionnaire responses from firm managers, were gathered and 20 factors in 6 groups were identified. In order to prioritize the risks, the analytic network process (ANP), have been utilized. The result of research introduces boycott as the most important risk in the supply chain of Zagros Petrochemical Company. It is an applied research due to the goal and case study due to the methodology.

This paper evaluates the decision making process for import complete manufactured pieces versus import of partial pieces to assemble in Iran، taking into account the risk factors for a manufacturing company. Since this sort of decision making confront with several risks، it is necessary to establish a process for finding the risks associated with this kind of problems in order to decrease the effects of these risks in the process. Since the problem is classified as a Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problem، Uncertain Analytical Hierarchy Process (UAHP) was used to find the most attractive alternative. Because the alternatives were identified from the first point، a bottom-up procedure was used to organize the hierarchy. In initial stage، the attributes which distinct from the alternatives were obtained by literature review and experts'' interviews. Then the attributes were grouped to upper level to establish the criteria. Three criteria were found from this stage. The criteria were product، partners، and environment which they encompassed 12 attributes. Forming the hierarchy and doing the uncertain pairwised comparisons، which considers a range of numbers instead of one single number for declaring the preference between two factors، a Linear Programming (LP) model with two types of objective functions were formed for each individual alternative. Each single LP model can express the maximum and minimum value of each individual alternative. The research''s results indicate the most appropriate alternative is to import the final product from India. The last preferred one was to import the parts of the final product from India. This study can be a suitable framework in supply chain management and purchasing decisions and risk evaluations because the major parts of manufacturing activities is always to decide about the selection of most preferred strategies for companies.

Nowadays, global speedy transformations have forced organizations to investigate risk management in supply chain in order to overcome their insecure conditions. Suppliers should produce materials and parts with of high quality and low costs. Identifying and ranking of the effective risks in supply chain is necessary in order to achieve this goal. In this paper, in addition to providing an explanation of non-determinant concepts in supply chain, and the identification of risks supply chain and determining the intensity of their effects, risk management in supply chain has been explained as one of the main functions of managers. In addition, we have recognized the most important supply chain risks on the basis of suggested model and also have designed the questionnaire which has not only measured the severity of risks relating to each other. Finally, the results were analyzed using DEMATEL technique in order to clarify the most important supply chain risks regarding their priorities; e.g. environmental, financial, strategic, informative and communicative technology.