جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "oil price" در نشریات گروه "مدیریت"

The strategy are in the planning of oil price changes in the short and long term. Therefore, producers should seek to analyze the behavior of crude oil prices in the short and long term in order to adjust their plans. the price level in the oil market is associated with high fluctuations, many producers in the market seek to reduce exchange risk. This article aims to analyze the behavior of oil prices in the short and long term in the use of producers in planning, for this purpose it uses the data of the daily series in 2013-2021. It shows that, in the long term, suppliers can plan themselves in the analysis of price behavior instead of financial factors as fundamental financial factors, in a situation where in the short term, producers have more financial impact than fundamental factors in analyzing the behavior of global price to markets.

Iran's oil reservoirs are operated in cooperation with international oil companies under a contract titled Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC). During the life of the concluded contracts, Iran and oil companies seek to maximize the economic value as well as the value of the cash flow. In this paper, IPC was modeled and the sensitivity of parameters was illustrated.

Contract financial flow was mathematically modeled considerin the physical characteristics of the oil well. This model was simulated using Matlab to evaluate the effect of different values of two parameters of production rate and wages in IPC contracts on the field production process.

Results show that contractors were inclined to lower production rates if the fee per barrel is not set in the proper range (3$-7$). Furthermore, for very low oil prices (under 30$) contractor is at the risk of investment and for higher prices contractor’s share saturates.

All the parameters of the problem including contractual, reservoir, field parameters, oil price, investment costs, and operating costs play a role in the profitability of the project, and knowing contract parameters sensitivity can give Iran a clear view of negotiating the contract.

Empirical studies show that asymmetric the effects of oil shocks on macroeconomic variables can review in oil-exporting countries like oil-importing countries. In this regard, this paper tries to investigate the asymmetric effects of oil shocks on inflation in OPEC member countries (including Iran) using hidden panel co-integration approach during the period 1990-2014. To achieve the purpose, first, the variables of crude oil prices and consumer price index for these countries are decomposed to cumulative positive and negative components. then, according to the cross-sectional dependence in the models, used the Pesaran unit root test (2007) and Westerlund co-integration test (2007) and shown that does not exist long-run relationship between crude oil prices and the consumer price index (not support linear co-integration); but there is a long-term relationship between positive components this variables and between positive components of consumer price index and negative components of oil prices (support hidden co-integration). Finally, these long-term relationships estimated by using the continuously-updated and fully-modified (Cup-FM). The results show that both positive and negative oil price shock increase the inflation in the OPEC member countries, so that the impact of negative shocks is more than positive shocks (support asymmetry).

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock returns with respect to the size of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The companies studied in this study are divided into 4 groups: large, medium, small and combined based on the amount of company assets, which is considered as a size factor, and the effect of macroeconomic variables (exchange rate, liquidity, price index). Consumer, oil price) has been compared on the stock returns of these 4 groups. . For this purpose and for estimating and estimating the models, a model based on panel data has been used, which is a combination of time series data (9831-9831) and cross-sectional data (904 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange). The results of the study indicate that the exchange rate in all four groups of companies has a negative and significant relationship with stock returns and the effect of exchange rates on stock returns increases with increasing company size. Consumer price index in medium, small and combined companies has a negative and significant relationship with stock returns, but in large companies there is no significant relationship. The effect of this variable on stock returns decreases with increasing company size. Oil prices in large companies have a negative relationship and in other companies have a positive and significant relationship with stock returns. Liquidity in large companies has a positive relationship and in other companies has a negative and significant relationship with stock returns.

Considering the importance of oil in Iran's economy, in this paper, the effects of long and short-term effects of oil shocks on real GDP, liquidity and inflation were investigated using the VECM model and Granger causality during the period 1369 to 1395. The results of the symmetric model indicate that the effect of oil shock on real GDP and liquidity is positive, but its effect on inflation is negative. The results of the asymmetric model show that the effect of positive oil price shock on real GDP, inflation and liquidity is positive, negative and positive, and the negative impact of oil price on real GDP, inflation and liquidity is negative, positive and negative. The magnitude of the effect of positive oil shocks on real GDP, inflation and liquidity in the long run are far more limited and more than negative oil shocks shocks. The effect of positive and negative shocks on the variables is asymmetric, which means that the response of the variables to positive and negative shocks is in opposite directions, but with different values. In the short run, oil prices are the cause of all variables.Given the asymmetric effect of oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables, it is recommended that the government, over time, reduce the public budget's dependence on oil in order to eliminate the impact of oil shocks on government spending.

An examination of international political economy history shows that discovery of huge oil reservoirs has been playing an important role in defining and supporting the countries national interest. Undoubtedly, oil reserves in Iran are considered as intergenerational resources and maintaining intergenerational justice as well as enhancing national interest in the long run. These are indisputable commitments which are the main goals and missions of Iran governors. In this research, focusing on the economic aspect of the national interest and by using systems dynamic methodology, dynamics changes of Iran’s national interest are modelled considering developments in the oil industry and market. The structure of production capacity formation, amount of production and revenues of domestic and international sale of oil and oil products are investigated and modeled and variables related to economic national interest are formulated. Simulation results described in five scenarios as follows: growth in the oil market, current status, downturn in the oil market, OPEC market share target, and OPEC revenue target. According to results, increase in domestic prices of energy carriers to international prices and the increase of the budget share for investment in more value added areas in the oil industry are recommended to increase national economic benefits.

Studying and planning to achieve a better economic future, plays an important role in the thinking of economic policymakers in every country, including Iran. But the achievement to the desirable and sustainable future requires answering these questions that the Iran's economy has been influenced by what factors and policies? And what factors determine the future trend of Iran's economy? Accordingly, in this research, the study on past trends of the Iran's economy and the identification of factors that affecting the Iran's economy have been considered, in order to write the scenarios for the Iran's future economy and its security impacts. For this purpose, critical uncertainty approach were used.To write the future scenarios, Iran's economic factors with critical uncertainty were identified by using questionnaires that completed by economic experts. Accordingly, two uncertainties of "international economic sanctions" and "oil price" were selected as the critical uncertainties.
Based on the results of these scenarios, the Iran's economy will face a decline in economic growth in three scenarios, and in only one scenario, conditions for economic growth and development will be provided without a serious impediment. From a security point of view, in three scenarios and due to changes in the economy, Iran will face security problems with regional, transnational and internal sources.

Iran's economy, like most other oil-exporting countries is extremely vulnerable to oil price fluctuations. Due to the high share of oil sector in GDP, oil price fluctuations can destabilize the economy leading to high inflations. In this study based on the annual data for the period of 1982- 2015 and using quantile regression method, inflation as the dependent variable is regressed on oil prices, GDP, liquidity and trade openness. According to the results, there is a positive relationship between inflation and oil price fluctuations in different deciles. The effect of GDP and trade openness on inflation is negative and the effect of liquidity is positive.

Energy carriers prices, especially gas-oil and gasoline affect people’s life via cost of ransportation. This paper tries to explore the inflation caused by gas-oil and gasoline prices. In our model, gas-oil price, gasoline price, money volume, exchange rate, budget deficit and GDP are considered as variables affecting inflation in Iran. Thereupon, long term, short term and error correction models were estimated by ARDL method. The results show that the price of gasoline has a significant effect on inflation in the Iran’s economy. So that, every one percent increase in gasoline price, can raise the inflation rate at 1/112 percent. Furthermore, the price of gas-oil has a meaningful effect on the rate of inflation in Iran. So that, every one percent increase in the price of gas-oil can raise the inflation rate at 0/748 percent

There are many studies on the effects of oil price shocks on Stock Market in Oil Importing countries such as the USA, Japan and the EU countries yet there in oil Exporting Countries the studies are limited. This paper investigates relation among oil price and stock market behavior in seven oil exporting countries. The research aim is filling the gaps of theoretical research in this area about energy economics in the point of econometrics method, macro sampling with the attention to oil exporting countries. The results confirm the existence of a positive effect of oil price changes on stock market in Iran. So causality test in Countries such as Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, having some commonalities such as the financial budget reliance on oil and economic structures are quite similar, confirming the causal positive relationship for oil price volatility on stock market returns.

Oil price and exchange rate volatility are the most important factors in GDP fluctuations in all countries, particularly in oil exporting countries. This paper investigates the effects of oil price shocks and real effective exchange rate volatility on economic growth in oil exporting countries. In addition, the effect of uncertainity resulting from oil price shocks and exchange rate volatility on economic growth has also been examined. GARCH (1,1) model has been used to extract uncertainity series. The estimation method used is Vector Autoregressive (VAR) based on cointegeration technique. Model is estimated separately for the four oil exporting countries Algeria, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela for the period 1980- 2007. Based on estimation results, there are long-run relationship between oil prices, exchange rate and GDP in these countries. In these countries, long-run relationship between oil prices and GDP growth is positive in all four countries. Also long-run relationship between exchange rate and GDP growth in all four counties is negative.