جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "حباب قیمتی سهام" در نشریات گروه "مالی"

The main goal of the current research is to provide a model for measuring the stock price bubble with a behavioral approach. The present research method is a descriptive survey. The statistical population consists of two groups, in order to determine the factors related to the model, the first group consists of 10 capital market experts, and the second group consists of active companies admitted to the stock exchange, which were used for the model test. ANP has been used to prioritize the identified behavioral factors. The calculations performed to determine the priority of the main criteria show that the heterogeneity of investors with a normal weight of 0.128 has the highest priority. Speculative behavior, mass behavior and mental accounting are in the second to fourth place, respectively. Also, the results of the second part show that considering that the statistical population of the research consists of all the companies active in the stock market between 2012 and 2019, 143 companies were selected as a sample based on systematic elimination. Eviews software and logistic regression were used to test the hypotheses. The identified behavioral factors include speculative behavior, behavioral volatility, investor heterogeneity and market expectations. The results show that behavioral instability, heterogeneity, market expectations, as well as speculative behavior have a positive effect on the occurrence of stock price bubbles; Therefore, it can be stated that behavioral factors can have a positive effect on the formation of the stock price bubble; Therefore, the identified pattern has the necessary efficiency from the behavioral point of view.

In the financial literature, a bubble is a situation in which the market price of a commodity is traded at a significant difference from its intrinsic value. Determining the true value is difficult, usually after a sudden drop in price and the so-called bubble burst; They notice the bubble. The bubble is characterized by its temporary nature. In this case, investors rush into the market without considering the real market value of a commodity, which causes the market price of a commodity to be separated from its real value. Given the importance of this issue; the present study is based on the study of factors affecting the prediction of stock price bubble irregularity. In this study and in order to achieve the objectives of the research; Data of 99 companies were extracted for a period of ten years from the beginning of 2009 to the end of 2020, the research variables were calculated and the necessary statistical tests were performed. The method of this research is descriptive-correlational and its design is Fundamental using post-event approach. The findings indicated that among the proposed variables; Financial performance and Market Performance are effective in predicting stock irregularities.