جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « بحران آب » در نشریات گروه « علوم انسانی »

This research has provided a model for analyzing policies to deal with the water crisis in Iran with regard to climate and population changes in a twenty-year horizon with a system dynamics approach. model was designed according to the hydrological cycle of water and the effective representation of the security of water resources in the country with Vansim software. Surface water sources, underground water, dam water and population are considered as accumulation variables of model. The required statistics were extracted from the Iranian Statistics Center, the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Agricultural Jihad for 2017-2037. Based on the research model, the state of water resources in the country shows a downward trend during the mentioned time horizon. various policies regarding dealing with the water crisis and its impact on the security of country's water resources were examined using the designed model. dimensions of the model were changed under 5 scenarios and its effect on the security of water resources was investigated. The investigated scenarios are in the two sectors of supply and demand management of water resources. These scenarios include climate change and reduction of renewable water, low water productivity in different sectors, population increase and water return from different sectors. These scenarios change the security of water resources according to their nature. At the end, the conceptual model of analysis of policies to deal with the water crisis is presented and practical suggestions were adopted by integrating water supply and demand management to deal with this crisis.

The sudden decrease in water levels in Urmia Lake has elevated the environmental risk to both nearby and distant communities. For the people living in this region, particularly the villagers, the crisis has brought about a number of negative effects, including economic, social, environmental, and production-related. The current study was carried out with the purpose of evaluating the economic and productive effects of this problem from the viewpoint of the rural residents in the eastern part of the lake. The eastern of the lake's including 87,049 rural households that made up the statistical population of this study from which 230 households were chosen and analyzed using a stratified sampling method. The formula proposed by Cochran was used to determine the sample size. A questionnaire and face-to-face interviews were the data collection tool and method. By employing the opinions of experts and determining Cronbach's alpha coefficient the validity and reliability of the research instrument were assessed. The data analysis was done using SPSS statistical software. According to the findings, among the most significant effects that the villagers agreed upon were the decrease in the area used to cultivate agricultural products, the reduction of water resources and the rise in costs associated with the supply of agricultural water, and the decline in the quality of surface and ground water. According to the results of the exploratory factor analysis, the various economic-production effects of the water reduction of this lake can be summarized under four groups including "quantitative and qualitative reduction of agricultural production and income", "decrease in the quantity and quality of water resources", "increase in costs and threat to job security and income", and "reduction of non-agricultural activities". Around 69% of the variance in the results' overall variance was explained by these four variables. Among the recommendations made by this study to lessen the effects of water depletion in this lake are encouraging the production and introduction of agricultural and horticultural crops suitable for the eastern area of Urmia Lake, developing new irrigation systems, and altering the pattern of irrigated agricultural crops.

The stability of water resources is a situation in which water resources are managed in such a way that in addition to providing the well-being and needs of one generation, efforts are made to provide the needs and well-being of future generations; In fact, the stability of water resources depends on political, life, environmental and hydrological conditions. The Political Management of Space and the patterns resulting from it can strongly affect the geographical space and the biological foundations in it, especially the water resources; Each of these patterns has special features, the most important feature that differentiates these patterns from each other is the amount and intensity of concentration. In such a way that the level of concentration in each of these models in terms of being high and low can affect the category of stability in political, economic, social and environmental dimensions. Among the most important components of the political management of space, which overshadows the stability of water resources, there are three components: 1) legislation; 2) executive management; 3) political divisions. In the researches that have been conducted in connection with the issue of water resources stability, the consequences of this issue have been mainly described, and in the cases that have been addressed from the analytical aspect, most of the climate issues in a geographical area have been considered. Therefore, the effects of Political Management of Space on the issue of water resources stability have been less discussed. The present study investigates the effect of Political Management of Space components on the stability of water resources from a theoretical point of view, and examines the most important causes of water resource instability caused by the factor of Political Management of Space.

According to the nature of the present research, the research method is descriptive-analytical and data collection is done by library method and from documentary and internet sources. Data analysis is done qualitatively and inferentially.

Human factors affecting the stability of water resources in the past few decades have severely affected water resources as an important variable, and this effect has been both quantitative and qualitative (drying and polluting wetlands, lakes, rivers). Therefore, instability has been the result of human intervention, which in any case is a management problem that is the result of dominant thoughts that are imposed on the geographical space in the framework of practical policies. In fact, the stability or instability of water resources is directly related to the Political Management of Space in a country. The theoretical investigation of the mechanism of the influence of the political management of space as a macro-management structure in the stability or instability of water resources in a watershed becomes relevant from this point of view. Although the type or pattern of political management of space may have different results on water resources in two countries or geographical space, the result of this problem is due to the existence of a specific ideology or the lack of coordination between different aspects of political management of space, including the issue of legislation, political division  of space and executive management in one country.Therefore, the issue of political space management is influenced by mediating variables that are derived from the ruling ideology of the country or geographical space, or the lack of coordination and cooperation between internal institutions and organizations of a country. In fact, the Political Management of Space in a country affects the stability of water resources from three dimensions, legislation, executive management and political divisions of space (political organization of space). A) Legislation dimensio includes 1) centralization and decentralization 2) levels of legislative institutions 3) relationship between the government and the nation. B) executive management dimension includes five factors including: 1) development strategies 2) efficiency issue 3) bureaucracy (specialized and non-specialized) 4) government revenue sources 5) levels of executive management. C) The dimension of political divisions of space includes five factors as: 1) balance in provincial units 2) concentration and lack of concentration in places and geographical areas 3) criteria of civil divisions 4) homogeneity and heterogeneity of places and geographical areas 5) influential forces.

The political management of space includes three dimensions and components, including the dimension of legislation - the dimension of executive management and the dimension of civil divisions (political organization of space). In relation to the category of legislation and its relationship with the stability of water resources in a watershed in countries with a plurality of legislative institutions, the low level of coordination and alignment in the formulation of laws between the national and local levels, the lack of sufficient powers of the institutions in charge of water, the concentration of power in the law-making institutions, the lack of attention to the role of the beneficiaries in the management of water resources, which ultimately lead to the belief that water resources are part of their assets and only they should manage these water resources. Therefore, the existence of self-centered laws and views on the part of governments will provide a basis for governments to consider themselves the main owners of water resources and not accept the actors and beneficiaries of water resources in the management of water resources. In fact, there is no cooperation and alignment in the management of water resources by the government and the people, and finally the sustainability of water resources will face a challenge. In connection with the dimension of executive management, which has great importance in the stability of water resources. It can be said that executive measures are directly related to the stability or instability of water resources. The most important issues that are very important in this dimension can be mentioned the two phenomena of transparency and politicization and lobbying, which in the process of drafting the national budget, the issue of rent income, the absence of parties and organizations concerned about stability. Water resources, the phenomenon of non-specialized bureaucracy, the inefficiency of the executive bodies in charge of water resources management and the lack of coherence in the policy-making of national development programs have a great effect. The third dimension of the political management of space, which has an important effect on stability of water resources, is the dimension of political divisions or political organization of space. In this aspect, various factors influence the stability of water resources, which are mainly formed as a result of the actions of state and governments on the division of the geographical space of the country in the direction of optimal management of the space, which include the first phenomenon of a city where a huge population in the form of a city Big is loaded in a specific geographical space Also, heavy industries are located in the suburbs of these cities. Other important factors include the lack of balance in the provincial units in terms of the size and concentration of population and activity, the lack of national and regional complementarity, the heterogeneity of climate in the neighboring provincial units, the unbalanced distribution of water and soil resources, and the existing mineral resources. , the influence of informal forces on the process of national divisions and finally the lack of attention to geographical homogeneity in provincial divisions, which are among the most important factors affecting the stability of water resources in a watershed.

The necessity of water for survival is not hidden to anyone, but there is still no clear and systematic way to think about the value of water. The connection between poverty and lack of water is quite clear, so that poverty is prevalent mainly in water-scarce areas and can lead to conflicts; Social and economic development is completely tied to water, and the fact is that Iran is clearly facing a water crisis.This article seeks to harness the capacity of the media in general and new forms of water-related journalism in particular to promote citizens' water literacy. Accordingly, the present study was conducted in an interpretive paradigm based on qualitative methodology and using the data theory method of the Strauss and Corbin Systematic Approach Foundation, through theoretical sampling with experts in the fields of water, media, social sciences and communications, 31 in-depth interviews. The main phenomenon of this research was considered to be the promotion of water literacy. By analyzing the data, causal conditions (31 concepts), Underlying factors (cultural conditions, political and social conditions, media diversity, geographical conditions, economic conditions), intervening factors (role of professional journalists, independence of journalists, politicization of the press, ambiguous future of Iranian journalism) and strategies (media interaction, industry interaction, educational institutions, academia and media, press pathology, social capital promotion, audience sociology, confidence building, gatekeeper democracy, technological convergence and journalism, contiguous content, establishment of newspaper association Water writers, agile media interaction, and the creation of water journalism in schools, educational institutions, and universities) obtained in three coding steps.

The situation of decrease in rainfall, drought and climate changes in general in recent decades have become increasing problems for our country. These issues are much deeper and more tangible for the dry areas of the country, especially if the way of living is directly affected by the state of rainfall. The present study, seeks to understand the meaning of the water crisis and drought among the livestock farmers of Musa Abad district of Torbat Jam.

Based on the G.T method of Straus and Corbin, data collected from 22 participants using in-depth interview. The criterion for the number of samples was to reach theoretical saturation.

Using open coding stage, 59 primary concepts were extracted, and through converting them into abstract concepts, 22 main categories were obtained. Applying the selective coding stage, a core category - traditional cattle breeding in the dilemma of dual paradoxes - was extracted.

This research showed that from the point of view of cattle breeders, drought and water crisis have a direct relationship with dualities that have manifested themselves in the form of uncertainty leading to the gradual destruction of traditional animal husbandry. It seems that the government, is the culprit and the main actor of the consequences of drought and water crisis for traditional herders due to the dual policies it has taken in relation to rural areas and their way of life.

Innovation: 

Using the qualitative method of grounded theory, this research has for the first time addressed the lived experience and problems caused by drought for livestock farmers in Musa Abad region. Inspired by Elinor Ostrom's theory, it was suggested that the government, should explain its assignment by rethinking the dual policy approach. Whithout considering the noted comments we will observe the acceleration of rural migration during next years.

Nowadays, general agricultural policies are moving towards sustainable agriculture, and this is despite the fact that countries suffer from a big problem called drought and climate change, especially in the field of this important economic sector. Accordingly, the correct understanding of the comprehensive conditions for growing an agricultural product is one of the significant principles of sustainable agriculture, and in this regard, general policies should be changed from cultivating water-intensive crops to less water-consuming ones. Therefore, according to the current programs, one of the policies considered for the region studied in this research, Lanjan County, located in the southwest of Isfahan province, was the change of cultivation from rice to beans, this research aimed at studying the feasibility of changing from rice to beans. The statistical population of the research included experts from the Agricultural Jihad Organization, experts from the farmers' trade union system (N=50) and rice farmers of Lanjan County (N=270). The sample size was determined by applying Cochran's formula based on which 40 experts and 130 farmers were selected randomly for the study. Data were collected by a questionnaire and were analyzed using SPSS software. The results of the single-sample t-test showed that from the farmers' point of view, the average of production factors (3.33), management (3.35) and attitude (3.44) and from the experts' point of view, the average of most factors including relative advantage (3.37), timing (3.56), production (3.60), attitude (3.74), management (3.46) and background (3.44), obtained significantly higher than the average (3) and therefore higher than optimal. In this regard, the conditions for changing cultivation from rice to beans were evaluated as favorable. Therefore, based on the findings of the research, from the respondents' point of view, it is possible to change cultivation from rice to beans. Finally, some suggestions such as the guaranteed purchase of bean products by the government to provide the market and reduce the price fluctuation of bean products were presented.

Water is considered as one of the factors affecting political and security crises within countries, relations between governments and one of the most important challenges of the current century. The global and regional water shortage crisis has shaped certain political and economic tendencies in international relations. This issue and its consequences will have a significant impact on Iran's international relations with neighboring countries and will give special importance to the role of water resources management. Therefore, water resource management will play an important role in reducing water tension and establishing stable security in different geographical regions of Iran.

The present research, with a prospective research approach and a descriptive method, seeks to analyze water crisis indicators (rainfall, underground and surface water) using monthly rainfall, piezometric and hydrometric data in the central plateau of Iran. The zoning map of the crisis levels was prepared in GIS software based on the spatial data of the stations, and after that, the map of the state of tension and unrest in different regions of the central plateau basin of Iran was prepared for the next ten years.

The indicators of water degradation in the catchment area of ​​the Central Plateau are classified as lower than normal and at critical levels. The signs of crisis have started with the tension and unrest of the last few years in Yazd and Isfahan provinces, and the forecast of the long-term trend of the next ten years in the Drinc software shows a decrease in the area of ​​level 2 stress from 55% to 46% in the next 10 years and an increase in the area of ​​level 3 stress. It is from 12% to 20% in the next ten years and the scope of unrest and tension will extend from Isfahan and Yazd provinces to Tehran and Alborz provinces.

The stress of water resources in the next ten years scenario of the Central Plateau catchment area shows the expansion of areas with severe and very severe stress levels, and this means that in the next 10 years, based on the climate change simulation scenario, the situation of water resources management will be more critical and the spread of stress It will progress from levels with lower stress to levels with severe stress and these areas (Tehran and Alborz provinces) will experience water stress in terms of drinking, agriculture and industry.

First: The current water crisis in Iran is the product of years of inappropriate decisions and management, which occurred due to the increase in water demand from the country's water resources. Agrarian reform policy and the issue of land. The result was the fragmentation of agricultural land, which, along with the introduction of deep and semi-deep well exploitation technology, led to the digging of wells by small-scale farmers and landowners and the increase in underground water exploitation; because the easiest way for every person who owned land was to dig a well.Second: New institutionalism does not consider the economic future and the development of societies as a future with unlimited choices; considering that property rights are among the effective institutions; therefore, the policies that target the property rights of the society create major changes in the society. Land reform is a type of institutional change that is carried out by the government to transform the existing ownership structure and transform it into a desirable structure. Therefore, by using the new institutionalism, we can see the historical impact of land reforms, which was the policy of the government institution in changing and redefining the institution of land ownership; it highlighted the current water crisis.Third: Before land reforms, Iran's land system had three characteristics: 1- the concentration of land in the hands of a number of absent owners; 2- Shareholding as the dominant form of tenancy and 3- The prevalence of old and primitive techniques in production was determined. About the type of ownership of Iranian villages at that time, the information related to land reforms shows that 6,885 were in the care of religious institutions, 1,535 villages and parts of the other 245 were owned by the government and the royal institution also owned 2,167 villages and their lands. These institutions owned about 20% of the villages. In addition, Iran had 2,250 private owners, each of whom had more than one village; these people owned 11,740 villages. About 20 percent of the villages were for rural farmers and the remaining 38 percent belonged to 320,000 owners. However, following the changes in the ownership institution, the ratio of independent farmers to the rural population, which was less than 5% before the land reforms, reached 76% of the rural population after the land reforms. Although agrarian reforms increased the number of land-owning farmers, they could not give them enough land to become capable and self-reliant farmers. Because the average area of the farm in 1353 was 6.6 hectares and 37% of the land was in water shortage conditionFourth: The issue of land and the institution of ownership after the Islamic revolutionAt the beginning of the victory of the Islamic revolution, due to the expectations created among the rural strata and farmers within the framework of the slogans of the revolution era, in the rural areas, the conflict over land occupation had occupied everyone; In addition to local encroachments, the new regime tried to implement a series of land distribution policies. These land division policies culminated in the redistribution of what was mostly government land and the setting of ownership ceilings in each locality, which led to the redistribution of some of the remaining private land to large landowners. The result of the land division policy of the 1980s was to once again destroy the remnants of large-scale private capitalist agriculture and convert it into numerous small farms. At the same time as the fragmentation and scattering of agricultural lands, which was the result of land reforms and changes in the ownership institution; we see an increase in the number of well rings; the new owners began to dig wells for their newly acquired lands using the new well drilling technology. As a result of these events, the number of wells in the country increased from about 47,000 wells in the water year 1972-1973 to about 763,000 wells in the water year 2011-2012, and the amount of harvesting also increased from 9 billion cubic meters to more than 47 billion cubic meters. Thus, during this period, the number of wells has increased 16 times and the amount of harvests has increased more than 5 timesFifth: Before the land reforms, the number of small farmers was 320,000, who, together with 2,250 large owners, owned 60% of the agricultural land, and the average land of farmers was more than 20 hectares, the number of underground water resource exploitation wells was less than 40,000 wells, and the amount of exploitation was also It is less than 9,000 cubic meters But in 1979, when the number of small owners increased to 1,601,000 operators, the number of wells increased to more than 70,000 wells, and in 1988, when the number of operators increased to 2,800,000 and the average area of agricultural land is less than 3 hectares, the number of wells 221,691 and the amount of underground water extraction is 32,599 cubic meters and in 2003, when the number of users is 3,480,729, the number of well rings is 468,049 and the amount of extraction is 44,895 cubic meters; In the early 1990s, with the number of 3,359,409 operators, we see more than 763,664 wells and the extraction rate of 47,182 cubic meters.

The ownership and right to exploit the water of the border rivers is not fully in the possession of a country. This issue has long been the source of political disputes and conflicts and even wars and military operations between governments. The Hirmand border river originates from the Hindu Kush mountains in the west of Kabul, Afghanistan, and finally flows into the Hamun wetland located in the Sistan plain of Iran. This river has been one of the legal issues and disputes between Iran and Afghanistan over the determination of international borders and how to divide water since the signing of the Treaty of Paris in 1857 until now. Hirmand River forms the international border between Iran and Afghanistan in a part of Sistan. The possible changes in the course of this river due to climate fluctuations and human activities in the long term, can be the basis for more political disputes between Iran and Afghanistan over the determination of border boundaries (sovereignty). Therefore, in this study, monitoring the long-term changes of the Hirmand River in the common border area between Iran and Afghanistan is considered as a legal-political necessity. For this purpose, the time series of remote sensing images has been used as a reliable, low-cost and valuable information source.

This research has been conducted with the aim of content analysis of the environmental crisis of Urmia Lake in the IRIB TV series. At first, we enjoyed the theoretical bases of environmental communication concerning the role of media in forming the interaction between societies and the environment, informing and the ways to tackle environmental crises. Then, we investigated “communication messages”, “the triple of social learning and socialization”, “agenda-setting” and “framing” theories based on the centrality of meaning construction. In this study, qualitative content analysis has been used with an arbitrary approach without enforcing pre-determined categories. The statistical population is Darya series and the themes relevant to the research topic have been selected and analyzed. In Darya series, the Urmia Lake’s environmental crisis has forced obvious social and economic effects on the communities surrounding the drainage basin some of which include unemployment, immigration, the rise of crime, the disappearance of agriculture, disabling of shipping, and the tourism industry. Darya series presents two categories of “water resources management” and “correction of the unparallel development of agriculture trend” as solutions to pass the crises, and draws the future of revival of Urmia Lake as promising. In this series, human is the most effective parameter in the emergence of the Urmia Lake’s environmental problem, but the series suffices with the human actions as farmers at the microlevel, without dealing with the problems of macro-level measures of the system.

The main purpose of this study was to compile scenarios for the water crisis in Taibad city. A descriptive-analytical method was used for this study. Seventy-one indicators formulated in the form of 3 main components (management, economic-technical, and geographical-natural components) using library studies and interviews with experts. MICMAC and Scenario Wizard were used for data analysis. The results showed that the key drivers that impact on the water crisis in Taibad city are excessive consumption of water resources in the agricultural sector, inefficient management of water resources, attempts at inappropriate development (measures aimed at unsustainable development), excessive withdrawal from underground aquifers, lack of attention to the water crisis in development plans, and climate change. In line with the key drivers and possible situations, the output of the scenario wizard software in the form of five strong and probable scenarios showed that out of the 18 situations governing the scenario page, the situations that describe the water crisis scenarios in Taibad city as critical are the most possible situations, taking 38.88% of the situations governing the scenario page. Using the results of the research, three groups of scenarios were formulated: The most likely scenario (critical scenario), the scenario with slow changes (continuation of the current trend), and the weakest scenario (ideal scenario). Therefore, the situation facing the water crisis in Taibad city is critical. Forecasting the future of developments related to the water crisis from the point of view of futures research requires addressing governmental management and economic policies and national-local agents in the optimal management of water resources and controlling the repercussions of the crisis.

Water is one of the main elements of life and the basis of a wide range of socio-economic activities, and its lack causes serious problems in life. Population growth and the development of industrial and agricultural activities have increased the demand for water resources and turned water supply into one of the main challenges in arid and semi-arid regions. According to climatic classifications, large parts of Isfahan province have dry and semi-dry weather and the average annual rainfall is about 163 millimeters. However, this province has been faced with the increase in economic activities and population growth for the last 6 decades, which over time has led to a chronic lack of water, and since the last two decades, with the worsening of the water shortage situation, some signs of water crisis have appeared. Some of them are: the complete interruption of the flow of the Zayandehroud river in a large part of its riverbed, the complete drying of the Gavkhuni wetland in the downstream, the occurrence of subsidence in a large number of plains of the province, the unemployment of farmers in the downstream of the river, and persistent political and social protests. Therefore, identifying the factors affecting the occurrence of water crisis in the province is one of the most important steps in facing this phenomenon, and the current research seeks to identify the factors that cause this situation and rank these factors.

The present research method is descriptive-analytical, and in order to identify the factors affecting the water crisis in Isfahan province, the data was collected through the literature review. The collected affecting factors categorized into 7 main factors and 27 sub-factors. Then, they organized in the form of a questionnaire, and after that by referring to 15 experts and specialists; the initially identified factors were modified and ranked through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique using the Expert Choice software. In this stage, the factors that based on the answers of the experts their average score was less than 3 were eliminated, and thus the final factors were reduced to 5 main factors and 16 sub-factors.

Due to its centrality in the country and due to political considerations and despite severe climatic limitations, since the last 6 decades, Isfahan province has faced the establishment of large industrial factories and the development of agriculture, followed by the increase in population and the growth of urbanization and immigration. This situation and the sharp increase in water consumption have caused the province to face a severe shortage and even signs of a water crisis. The findings of the research show that the five political, human, agricultural, industrial and climatic factors have the greatest influence on the occurrence of water shortage and crisis in the province with weights of 0.325, 0.271, 0.189, 0.124 and 0.091 respectively. Among the five identified main factors affecting the water crisis in Isfahan province, the political factor has played the biggest role. It can be said that the current state of the water crisis in the province is the result of the decisions of the political managers in the past 6 decades, which has intensified over time. Since the last two decades, some obvious signs of the water crisis have appeared in the region. The complete interruption of the flow of the Zayandehrud river in large part of its riverbed and the drying up of the Gavkhuni wetland are the most notable cases. Also the land subsidence in large number of plains even in Isfahan city, which caused damage to houses, public places and historical and touristic buildings. The unemployment rate increased among the farmers in the downstream due to the lack of sufficient water for farming leads persistent socio-political protests.  

The continuous development of industries, cities, agriculture, and the population of the province has increased the demand for water consumption and destroyed the ecological balance, and threatened the water resources. With the continuation of the increase in the establishment of industries, immigration, development of agriculture and services in Isfahan province, the situation of water shortage is intensifying over the time. It seems that in order to improve the situation, it is necessary for the policy makers to reconsider the fact that Isfahan province is an industrial hub and has the first rank in many cases of agricultural and industrial production. They should decide for the gradual transfer of high water-consuming industries and the control of immigration and revision in development plans and changing the cultivation pattern of agricultural crops towards low water-consuming crops, which are appropriate to the province's climate.

Enjoying one third of the average global rainfall, Iran is one of the world’s dry regions. Isfahan province, as an important province in Iran, is not an exemption to this. Hence, the balance between water resources supply and demand in this province should be considered an important approach. Unless the issue of water shortage is understood and acknowledged by community, violence will dominate tolerance and dialogue and the social security of the civil community will be jeopardized. Therefore, water crisis in Isfahan should be acknowledged by community or should considered a social issue to become food for thought.

Based on the conventional procedure in the grounded theory method, the present research has presented the results related to the open coding of the data, as well as the selective and central coding. In order to carry out theoretical and background studies, the library method and data collection tools have been used through data collection, statistical, documentary and descriptive sources. Based on the principle of theoretical saturation, the research experts are 13 people who were familiar with the under-study issue.

The attractiveness of the urban center of Isfahan for living and due to factors such as its demographic developments, the weakness in the decision-making and planning system, the imbalance of resources and consumption, water resources abuse, the dangers of drying up “Gav Khooni”, land subsidence, the threat of rural livelihoods, as well as the damage caused by migration in the cities of the province; and the potential of the problem to become a social problem, have all brought about dissatisfaction and the policing and security crisis. Finally, the governance policies along with social movements, have made the life of the river Zayandehroud faced a challenging issue and has led to regional quarrels and its continuation.

The purpose of this research is to identify the key variables and driving forces affecting the future of the water issue in the city of Isfahan and to compile the scenarios facing the city of Isfahan in the water issue. The current research method as an applied research and using the critical uncertainties approach has presented the future scenarios of water in Isfahan. To collect data, the method of library studies and expert panels has been used. Using the opinion of experts, 20 key factors in the form of five drivers, i.e. 1. The price of water, 2. Investing in new technologies, 3. Water policies, 4. urban population and 5. Water infrastructures were categorized. In the next stage, the two drivers of water policies and investment in new technologies as critical uncertainties were the basis for compiling the scenarios of Isfahan City in the field of water, and finally, four scenarios were compiled. The first scenario of the battle for the last sip narrates the situation in which Isfahan will face a severe drought; The second scenario, there is water but little, shows a situation where water policies are forward-looking and do not ignore long-term challenges, but technology is left out as a solution to solve problems in this area; The third scenario is water, but for the rich, it is a bipolar story about access to water; And the fourth scenario of green Isfahan describes a situation that city managers and officials, taking into account the potential of new technologies in the optimal management of water consumption and by adopting forward-looking policies, realize a green city that is favourable to different sections of the society. The results show that drivers and scenarios show that the most important factors determining the future water situation in Isfahan City are not environmental factors, but factors related to human decisions

This research has been done with the aim of providing a model to investigate the factors affecting water crisis information based on the teachings of the Quran. For this purpose, 21 managers, specialists and professors of communication, media, virtual space, Quranic sciences and water field were selected using theoretical targeted sampling and they were interviewed with the method of qualitative content analysis with an inductive approach. The data collection tool in this research was a semi-structured in-depth interview as well as a checklist to prepare and extract relevant verses And the collection of findings continued until the theoretical saturation of information. According to the topic of the research, the questions in two dimensions include effective Quranic themes for the production of media content with the focus on preparing public opinion to be aware of the water crisis and the identification of factors affecting the desired information about the water crisis based on the teachings of the Holy Quran was presented to the audience and the findings in the study of Quranic concepts included water as the source of life, the need for it for humans, revival, abundance, nature, blessing, sustenance, reference to the capacities and capacity of water on earth, nature’s need for water, purity, etc. Based on the findings from the interviews, the effective factors on informing were categorized into two dimensions of implementation and practical strategies. Timely and appropriate repetition of the issue of water crisis through the media, use of media capabilities, content creation by taking ideas from the concept of verses related to water and developing discourses on the issue of water crisis from implementation and confidence building strategies, strengthening responsibility and collective participation, enriching the content, Initiative and creativity, etc, as the central category of the report, are among practical

In 1397, the document of the basic Iranian Islamic model of progress was published along with a statement the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution was communicated to the main Iranian policy-making institutions, such as the expediency discernment council the government, the parliament and the Supreme Council. Since the document was drafted the country has been experiencing structural crises, in which the country is experiencing severe turmoil in the field of sound policy and needs a reliable upstream document that is also tolerable in critical situations. The power to create the path and give birth to get out of these crises is increasing. The present study compares different Iranian Islamic models of progress in the field of sustainable development and finally, with the aim of upgrading the structures of the Iranian Islamic model of progress in progress with various crises, with the help of augmentation, from adaptation. The Global Model of Sustainable Development and the Iranian Islamic Model of Progress will provide a strategic complement to promoting the model of progress. For this purpose, 56 measures of progress model and 169 micro-goals of sustainable development are divided into eight dimensions and then the amount of each of these Iranian indicators is determined. The results show that the amount of post-social and environmental payment in sustainable development is much higher than the Iranian Islamic model of progress. Homogeneous results and in the distribution of production indicators to measure progress in different types, can be considered the basis of this model.

In recent years, the issue of water shortage in the Middle East has become more prominent, and this has increased the importance of rivers such as the Tigris and Euphrates that pass through several countries, especially since the countries around these rivers, namely Turkey, Iraq and Syria, have not yet reached an understanding on how to divide water.Turkey considered both the Tigris and Euphrates basins as a single transboundary river basin and has started building dams under a project called Gap.Turkey's refusal to adhere to the League of Nations and United Nations treaties that began in 1923 and Turkey is planning to block most of the water that has historically flowed into Syria and Iraq.In recent years, the construction of dams in Turkey has been accelerated.This aggravates the water shortage in downstream countries such as Iraq. This issue can cause internal and regional problems for a country like Iraq that is rebuilding and pursuing its independence.Especially since most of Iraq's population lives in rural areas and rural life is directly dependent on the availability of water for agricultural production. Therefore, it is necessary to know the dimensions of this project. Also, considering the importance of the issue of water shortage and that the issue of dam construction can connect many issues in the region, this article aims to answer the question of Turkey in the construction of dams in a descriptive-analytical way and using library documents. What goals has the Gap project pursued? Also, what effect has the construction of these dams had on Iraq from an economic point of view?As a result, this article deals with economic goals and industrial development, hegemony and Kurdish problem in Turkey by using the framework of "interdependence" theory and examines the negative effects of building dams on food security, migration and agriculture in Iraq.

Today, the water crisis has become one of the most fundamental problems for third world countries. The process of reducing the amount of fresh water resources in these countries has made them and the whole world seriously concerned about the fact that the world may move towards water-based wars. Despite the consequences and effects of the water crisis in the environment and even the social space (such as the local and regional conflicts in some provinces of Iran), still, the necessary attention, sensitivity and concern among the general public and even experts and policymakers has not emerged as it should. The expansion of the water crisis in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari has the potential to become an almost widespread ethnic and local conflict with its neighboring regions. The water crisis can increase the gaps at the ethnic-local and regional level and threaten the stability and security of the ruling political system. In the meantime, the occurrence of social unrest caused by unemployment, local-regional conflicts over water distribution and obtaining a greater share of water, lack of drinking water and related concerns should not be overlooked. Each of the above cases has the possibility of leading to an independent crisis or to a base for the emergence of security crises. This study aims to analyze scenarios of security consequences of water crisis in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province it is based on the systematic investigation of factors influencing the water crisis in particular, it has identified the effective security challenges, alternative and possible scenarios and futures and further, according to the existing situation, based on the influencing factors and the current gap with the optimal to critical state, provide management strategies and necessary measures to achieve the most desirable and compatible scenarios.

The current research is "applied-theoretical" in terms of purpose and based on the nature and method; It is "descriptive-analytical". In this research, based on the nature of the work, quantitative and qualitative methods were used to analyze information and extract indicators. To structural analysis and identify the effective security drivers of the water crisis from the method of cross impact analysis (MicMac software) and for scenario writing the cross-impact balance analysis method (ScenarioWizard software) was used. The statistical population of the current research was academic experts, experts and institutional-organizational managers who have enough knowledge and experience in the topic of water crisis management and the study area. These experts were selected and questioned based on the method of "purposive sampling (expert samples) and chain-referral. In this regard, based on the possibility of willingness to respond to experts and the complexity of the methods, steps and conditions of implementing the Delphi technique, in total of (32) academic experts, managers and institutional-organizational experts were chosen as sample people.

Structural analysis method was used to identify the effective drivers of water crisis security in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province. In this regard, the findings of the method of structural analysis of the factors and challenges affecting the water crisis and its consequences in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province showed (13) the drivers of "water governance, inter-basin water transfer projects, local and regional tensions and conflicts, political discrimination, political authority of the government, migration, poverty and deprivation, social capital, unemployment, psychological security, social trust, social cohesion, participation of local institutions, public participation" based on the priority of effectiveness. The most important drivers of security are the water crisis. After identifying the security drivers of the water crisis, to analyze and select the scenarios of the security drivers of the water crisis, the mutual effects cross-impact balance analysis method was used using Scenario Wizard software which is one of the best methods that allows the detection of believable scenarios. According to the size of the matrix and its dimensions (39 x 39), with the help of the scenario wizard software and based on the questionnaire data, the number of (1594323) combined scenarios that include all possible situations were analyzed, the output of this analysis was the extraction of "446 possible scenarios" and "13 believable scenarios", including: "9 scenarios with high compatibility" and "4 strong scenarios". among the thirteen believable scenarios, the largest number of believable scenarios (8 scenarios) are in the yellow (static) spectrum. Also, the results showed that there are four strong scenarios with internal consistency (one scenario with favorable situations and 3 scenarios with critical situations) in front of the security challenges of the water crisis in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province. From the total of four strong scenarios in the security challenges of water crisis management, the first scenario represents favorable situations, and the tenth, twelfth and thirteenth scenarios represent critical situations in the upcoming conditions of each of the security drivers of the water crisis. Therefore, with the continuation of the current trend and the lack of effective strategies, not only will there not be a better situation in the management of the water crisis, but the expansion of the existing gap will lead to the emergence of the worst possible scenario "scenario 13" with critical situations in all factors.

According to the findings of the research, the problems and tensions of water scarcity, the red alarm of the crisis and water shortage has sounded in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, and this crisis will intensify with the continuation of the current trend. "Weak water governance, incorrect allocation of water resources, non-compliance with the rights of the origin regions of inter-basin water transfer projects and the dominance of more influential and powerful regions" to intensify local and regional tensions and conflicts over water resources and the increase of social gap and political, social and managerial conflicts and general discontent has resulted; thus, according to the results of the research and the conditions governing the current situation of the security challenges of water crisis management in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, the most favorable scenario for prospective management of water crisis security challenges, selecting the drivers of the first scenario based on 13 ideal situations and the best leading scenario to improve the situation governing the security challenges of the water crisis will be in the framework of optimal water governance so that by making appropriate decisions and applying strategies in front of each of the key drivers, to manage the challenges arising from the water crisis, especially the security challenges. Investigation of possible impacts and scenarios of water crisis shows that by considering the driving condition of main factors and their interaction, the probability of encountering with crisis and water stress is more likely than optimistic probability. As the crisis situations and existing trends show, facing this crisis is inevitable; thus, in the long term or in the short term in the coming years, many rural areas and most urban areas will be heavily involved with this issue as the water stress situation worsens. In this regard, the water crisis is a serious issue and requires a quick solution, which seems to be the optimal solution to pay attention and focus on the factors and challenges that cause the critical situation and water shortage in the province.

At the same time as entering the third millennium and with increasing population, in many countries demand for water in order to supply dem world population needs has increased considerably. But because of scarcity of water resources and water crisis in intire world the concept of water security and water poverty persresented into the economic literature of countries wich facing water crisis. Water poverty is one of the greatest challenges of this century and the multidimensional crisis of the next incoming decades in the world, especially in countries with low lelvel of water resources. This crisis can lead to many changes in the world. In this paper, unlike the usual methods op other lasr aricles to calculate water poverty, we calculate the water poverty index is on the base of Catastrophe theory multi-criteria evaluation system and mathematical fuzzy logic method. The sub-indices  wich used to calculate the water poverty are including: water resources (water deficit ratio, surface water supply ratio, the proportion of other factors in water supply), access to water (per capita water resources, price elasticity of water demand, Gini coefficient for domestic use), capacity of Underground aquifers (groundwater utilization rates, surface water utilization rates, dilution rates), using of water resources (per capita consumption of water for irrigation in the agricultural sector, per capita consumption of drinking water, per capita consumption of water in Industrial sector) and environmental integrity (surface water drying, desertification rate, create desert rate). The results of calculating the water poverty index during the period from 1989 to 2015 indicate the upward trend of this indicator and its subset components, which indicates the worsening of the state of water security in Iran in recent years and possibly the deterioration and continuation of this complicated situation for next decades. In the other hand, as the current trend continues, both in terms of resources and in terms of managing the production and consumption of the country's water resources, Iran is gradually losing its ground and becoming poorer in terms of water resources.