جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « نرخ واقعی ارز » در نشریات گروه « علوم انسانی »

Several factors such as productivity, per capita income, and oil income effective on the real exchange rate. In addition to examining the factors mentioned above, this article examines the change in taste of Iranian consumers from domestic to foreign goods and its effect on the real exchange rate. For this purpose, a theoretical model of consumer behavior, which is a utility function including domestic and foreign goods, has been presented and linked to the real exchange rate. Then, using time series regression with the implicit trend and state space technique, the effect of taste on the real exchange rate has been estimated dynamically during the years 1974 to 2021. The result of the estimation shows that the effect of taste has dynamically reduced the real exchange rate so that the width from the regression's origin has decreased yearly. Also, the effect of productivity and per capita income on the real exchange rate is significant, but the effect of oil income is not significant. The practical results show during the last 47 years, the tastes of the Iranian people have tended to consume foreign commercial goods with a mild trend, and this has been one of the causes of the real value of the national currency.

The study of the effect of real exchange rate and value- added on employment as one of the functional variables of the industrial sector in the theoretical and experimental literature of industrial economics in recent years has been considered by economists in this field.

In the present study, using the NARDL nonlinear model, the asymmetric effects of the real exchange rate and value added of the industrial sector on the employment rate of the industrial sector in Iran during the period of 1986-2019 have been evaluated.

The results of empirical findings indicate that the comination of integrated level between dependent variable and explanatory variables are I(0) and I(1). Moreover, the real exchange rate has been stationary with considering of structural break at level. The short-run dynamic model showe that there is a long-run relationship between variables. Estimated long-run relationship demonstrate that the asymmetry of real exchange rate and value-added on employment had been confirmed in Iran's industrial sector in short and long term. This result obtained by applying Wald test with Chi-square distribution. Also, in the long run, increasing the real exchange rate has a positive effect and decreasing the real exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on employment in the industrial sector. On the other hand, increasing the value added of the industrial sector in the long run has a positive effect and reducing it has a negative effect on the employment rate of this sector.The economic sanctions has also a negative and significant effect on the industrial sector employment in the long run. CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests are implemented for evaluation of coefficient consisteny in log-run. This tests revealed that the estimated coefficients are consistent. The results of error correction model explain that the increase and decrease of the real exchange rate and value- added of the industrial sector in the short term also have expected signs and the coefficient of error term in before period is -0.76, which indicates the high convergence rate of the short-term model to equilibrium status. In other words, in the period of 1.3 period or year, the short-term error is corrected and the adjustment speed is relatively high. The situation of asymmetry effevts for real exchange rate and industry value-added shows that the increase and decrease of the real exchange rate and the value- added of the industrial sector over the period of 15 years tend to their equilibrium or long-term value, ie values of -0.08 and -0.14. For value- added, they tend to increase and decrease to 0.27 and -0.11 in the long run.

Based on the findings of this study, it is suggested that economic policy makers control the general level of prices and inflation to increase the real exchange rate and production through employment capacity to improve employment in this sector. Promoting value added in the industrial sector by applying appropriate policies such as reducing intermediary costs and increasing sales value in order to enhancement the level of employment is another policy proposal of this research.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of foreign exchange rate and trade policies on crop exports in Iran. Regarding foreign exchange policies, exchange rate volatility index and the dummy variable of currency uniformity policy were considered, while economy openness index as well as trade bias coefficient index were studied for business policies. Logarithmic model of export supply function based on ARDL and error correction model were used to estimate long term and short term relations between variables. The research data were collected from the websites of the International Trade Statistics Database and the Central Bank of Iran from 1997 to 2014. The results showed that commercial deviation coefficient, real exchange rate, economy openness, stone fruits export value in previous years, domestic product price and the dummy variable of currency uniformity policy variables all have a positive effect, in the long term, on Iranian stone fruits export. The coefficient for error correction model equals -0.42, which is quite significant indicating a very high modulation pace to a long term equilibrium. In addition, the results revealed that, in case of shock and distortion in balance in each period, 0.58% of short term imbalances is adjusted to achieve long term equilibrium.

Employment was undoubtedly one of the main problems of industrial and non-industrial countries. Governors are always looking for ways to preserve, stabilize and enhance it, besides that, they have been looking for solutions to the obstacles they face. In other words, the main goals of any economic system are to minimize unemployment. Many factors, such as GDP, tax revenue, inflation and commercial openness, affect the employment of countries. By determining their relationship, along with the growth of the economy, employment growth can also be expected. Accordingly, the present study uses data from nine countries and uses the panel data method over the years 2000-2013 to investigate the depreciation of money on the employment of selected Islamic countries. The results confirm that currency devaluation (real exchange rate increase), GDP, tax revenue, inflation rate, and commercial openness have a significant effect on selected employment from selected Islamic countries)Iran, Indonesia, Egypt, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait and UAE).

Some of the most important and critical factors that any economy faces, are the issue of preventing unemployment, preserving and consolidating employment in the various sectors of the economy and providing solutions to the problems of production. So that unemployment reduction is one of the most basic indicators of development of societies. The exchange rate fluctuation can affect the employment of sectors. Because employment in all economic matters is a key and strategic argument and has two segments of supply and demand. The supply side resulting from population changes includes population growth, immigration, and education levels in the community and the demand side affected by the level of activity, the growth of various sectors of the economy, such as agriculture, industry and services (Sydaee et al 2011). The impact of the devaluation of money on employment is likely to be of great importance. Therefore, the effect of these two variables is considered in several Islamic countries. Research hypotheses, main hypothesis: Devaluation (real exchange rate increase) has a significant effect on the employment of selected Islamic countries. Sub-hypothesis: (A) GDP has significant effects on the employment of selected Islamic countries. (B) Income tax on employment of selected Islamic countries has a significant effect. (C) Inflation rate has a significant effect on the employment of selected Islamic countries. (D)Trade openness has a significant effect on the employment of selected Islamic countries. Determining the effects of exchange rate on production by three models of control, absorption and monetary are proposed. The basic assumptions of these approaches are the flexibility of prices, the degree of capacity utilization, and the emphasis on demand. In the controlling approach, if a reduction in the value of the domestic currency would improve the trade balance to domestic currency total production increases in the short and long term. In the absorption model if production capacity and unused resources exist in the economy, production may increase. In the monetary model, there is no effect on production in the short and long term, and production is in full employment .situation.  On the other hand, there are some ideas that indicate the negative effects of devaluation on production. Including Krugman and Taylor (1978), using Keynes's framework, showed that the devaluation of domestic currency had a contraction effect on production and employment. Bahmani Skooie and Mitzea (2003, p. 5) showed, devaluated money increases prices of production factors such as raw materials, capital and labor. Similarly, production costs increase and total supply decreases. Also, with devaluation, there is an increase in money demand, which ultimately leads to an increase in interest rates, this will increase the cost of capital use in such a situation, producers' motivation for production and supply decreases. Examples of studies in this area include the following: Dogan et al. (2018), with the dynamic Panel data method in the period 2006-2015, concluded that the appreciation through the creation of businesses by companies would increase Turkey's employment rate. Zobeiri and Nademi (2016) proved that the Markov Switching method has been used for the years 1974-2014 in a research, in the high unemployment regime, the exchange rate gap is causing severe unemployment in the Iranian economy.

In this study, mixed data and combined data have been used. Combined data method is a method for combining time series data and cross-sectional data.

 Research hypotheses based on panel data of 9 selected Islamic countries (Iran, Indonesia, Egypt, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait and the UAE), during 2000-2013, by the panel data approach were examined. The main hypothesis is that devaluation (rising real exchange rate) has a significant effect on employment in selected Islamic countries. This hypothesis is accepted. The results indicate that in the studied countries, with an increase of 1% in the logarithm of the official exchange rate, employment is reduced by 0.0 26% and with an increase of 1% in the real effective exchange rate logarithm, employment is reduced by 0/036 0%. The rest of the research hypothesis were approved except for the impact of inflation on employment.

Iran's Islamic financial system, as one of the main sectors influenced by the overflow of systemic shocks of Iran's economy based on current institutional arrangements, has been considered in this study in the form of a random dynamic general equilibrium model. By setting the real exchange rate as a sufficient statistic, this research examines the method of increasing the resilience of the economy based on Sections 8 and 9 of the General Policy of the Resistance Economy.
During the implementation of the model, the weaknesses of the applied methods in this area are investigated from linear and stationary non-accidental states aspects. According to the results, the global method with static random status has the maximum capacity to optimize the maximum resistance point.

The stock exchange as a main pillar of capital market can de facto mobilize the idle and ineffective savings in the country and conduct them towards more production and eventually expedite their momentum to well articulated growth and development in toto. Since the value of shares listed in the stock exchange, may de jure be affected by various factors particularly the macroeconomic variables, in this paper an attempt is made to expound the asymmetric impact of real exchange rate on total Equity Price Index (TEPIX), Ipso facto. For this purpose, we have applied the monthly data of oil price, CPI and real exchange rate for the study period of 2003:1-2014:12. Similarly to estimate and capture the positive and negative effects of real exchange rate shocks, we have used the Hodrick-Prescott Filter tool. Subsequently, we run the Zivot and Andrews unit root test to specify the endogenous structural breaks of explanatory variables and also we have utilized the Gregory-Hansen Co-Integration test, to investigate the long term relations between the real exchange rate shocks and TEPIX in context to the Iranian economy with special emphasize on structural changes of concerned variables and hereupon, we have estimated the model viz-a-viz executing the Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) method. The results of this study prima facie indicate that the effects of long term real exchange rate shocks on TEPIX are asymmetric, so that, the positive real exchange rate shock bears a positive and significant impact on TEPIX, while the negative shock carries a negative but significant effect on TEPIX, pro rata. However, the other explanatory variables i.e. oil price and Consumer Price Index (CPI) constitute the long term negative, though significant impact on TEPIX, Sine qua non.

The traditional theories of international economics emphasize on national currency devaluation as an efficient policy to enhance export, reduce import and consequently reduce current account deficit. The latest literature considers asymmetric response of trade variables to exchange rate changes and pays attention to ambiguous effect of reducing exchange rate on trade balance. This is an important finding since the success of trade policy depends on the understanding of the nature of trade balance behavior. The present paper examines Iran’s trade balance behavior in relation to exchange rate using logistic smooth transition regression (LSTR) during 1973-2009. The results of this research show that real exchange rate effects on Iran’s trade balance are asymmetrical and nonlinear. Furthermore, overvaluation of domestic currency effects negatively on the trade balance.

Real exchange rate is one of the most important macroeconomic variables which affects various economic sectors. As the effect of real exchange rate variation is not equal in different sectors and due to importance of industrial development in economic development of country، this paper have investigated the effect of real exchange rate changes on 8 manufacturing subsectors over the period 1353-1390. The structural time series approach has been used in this paper. The results show that exchange rate devaluation has different long run effects on subsectors of manufactories. So that، those manufactories which had dependence on import of inputs and foreign capital goods benefited and those manufactories with lower dependence on foreign inputs destroyed.

Oil price change is one of the most important economic factors that impacts oil importing and exporting countries، with the real exchange rate as the link between global oil price changes and national economies. These indices; crude oil prices and exchange rate and the relation among them; have crucial role for every country، especially those that are directly dependent to the import and export of oil. This survey investigates the way real oil prices affects real exchange rate in oil exporting and importing countries، using panel data for the period 1993 to 2009، to compare the two groups of countries. The findings show that the relationship between real oil prices and real exchange rates are significant in both groups of countries.

This paper examines the factors that affect private savings in Iran using Johansen and Juselius co-integration and vector error correction model. This paper the effect of variables such as real exchange rate, borrowing constraints, GDP, interest rate, inflation and fluctuation caused by War and Oil Revenues are examined. We use Banking profit rate instead of interest rates due to lack of data related to variable interest rates. And instead of borrowing constraints we use ratio of the banking system credits granted to the private sector to GDP, and private sector Liquidity to GDP. The result show that, impact of GDP, interest rate and Shocks from oil revenues in 1974 have positive effect on Private savings. Also, effect of real exchange rate, inflation and fluctuation caused by Iran-Iraq War have negative effect on Private savings. On the other, effect of borrowing constraints on private saving is ambiguous. Vector error correction coefficient is negative and equal -0.9 and mean that if a shock affects private savings, in a short run time 90% of this variance is corrected and again reach the equilibrium.

In this study, management of determinant factors on private investment in Iran have been investigated. Investment plays a special role in economic growth and development through creating new job opportunities. Based on the theoretical examination, the results of the Cointegration vectors derived from the Johansen method indicate that the Real Exchange Rate has positive effects on the private investment expenditures. Also, monetary and financial policies have fundamental and important roles in private sector’s investment in Iran.

Exchange regimes at the international level, over many years have several ups and downs and they affect the economic structure of countries. Different exchange regimes show how to determine the exchange rate in the economy. The impact of exchange rate regimes on trade is one of the important issues that have been in many applied studies. Devaluation (i.e. increase in Real exchange rate), will cause examined the current account status to worsen and then after a short period, the situation may reverse and the current account state will improve. This change in the current account is called J-shaped curve. For current account in this paper, using a vector error correction model VECM and impulse response functions, Iran and South Korea's trade balance dynamics during the 1996 -2008 period was reviewed using quarterly data and J-shaped curve for current account tested. The results of tests did not confirm the hypothesis of the existence of a J-shaped curve between the trade balance and Real exchange rate over the studied period. The reaction of trade balance to an increase in exchange rate in the long term was found as negative and significant. In connection with the positive impact real income of South Korea on Iran's trade balance, results indicate this coefficient is significant. Also the reaction of trade balance with respect to Iran's real income is negative and significant.

The optimal usage of oil as a natural resource is an important problem in exporting countries. These countries always are encountered with uncertainty and volatility of oil prices and its effects on real exchange rate. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship of between oil prices and exchange rate by emphasizing institutional quality in during 1995-2006. The model of this paper is estimated by panel data approach. Findings show that the oil prices have a positive effect on real exchange rate and it reduces international competition power. But institutional quality affects the extent to which the real exchange rates of oil-exporting countries co-move with the oil price. The results show that countries with high institutional quality such as control of corruption and regularity quality have real exchange rates which co-move less with the oil price.

Iran is a major producer and exporter of dried fruits such as Pistachios, Raisins and Date in the world. And for that it has an appropriate position on the global market. After Turkey and U.S, Iran has the third rank in the production of raisins and the second rank of the world for exporting the raisins. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of short and long-run fluctuations in exchange rates on export price of raisins by Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL).The data are collected from FAO and the Central Bank of Iran during the years 1350 to 1384 and analyzed using the software Microfit4. The ARDL model results show that in the long run real exchange rate is the main factor on export prices of raisins. Based on findings, it is offered that the monetary politics of the Central Bank should be scheduled in a way to prevent unpredictable exchange rate volatility.

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between volatility real exchange rate and TEDPIX in Tehran Stock Exchange. In order to do this, Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity models (GARCH) that provides the estimation of variable volatility in addition to the effect of volatility on that variable, are used. However, the monthly data of real exchange rate and dividend and price index between 2006 and 2008 have been used. It is concluded that there is a direct and positive relationship between “volatility of real exchange rate” and “dividend and price index”. In other words, increasing of volatility of real exchange rate results in dividend and price index increase

In this paper, the effects of bank facilities and the real rate of foreign exchange on the agricultural products exports haves been investigated modeled and studied via a macro dynamic model. Time span of this study is 1358_1385 (1979_2006). The results of this study show that, due to the first shock of increasing real rate of foreign exchange, exports of agricultural products increases but the percentage of this increase is in a relatively smalsmall amountl, and it decreases through time. as time passes it shows that exports of agricultural products doesnt increase but decreases. It means that the effect of the shock in the long run is negative.Examining the effect of increasing bank facilities onto the export of agricultural products shows that the influence of the first shock in the beginning years is almost zero but in the last years of the time span becomes positive. This examination also shows that increasing the bank facilities causes higher rate of increase in the export of agricultural products. In fact, T the credit policy in agricultural sector is a midterm or long term policy, so the effect may not be clear in the first years of the policy implementation but as time passes it becomes noticeable. Finally combining merging these two policies shows that the effect of simultaneous implementation of two policieshas a positive effect on the export of agricultural products is positive.

The purpose of this survey is to determine of equilibrium real exchange rate, misalignment and impact of misalignment of real exchange rate on economic growth. According to introducing of new exchange rate literature on 80 decade and econometrics models in recent decades, the model that introduce here is the fundamental Edwards model that adjusted for IRAN.The variables of this survey for determining of real exchange rate are: government expenditure, the ratio of capital investment to GNP, capital account, the ratio of oil and gas revenue to GNP, the excess of money supply to money demand, the difference between parallel and official market exchange rate. The period of this survey is from 1959-2004 Iranian calendars. In this regard we use Johanson test in order to estimate longrun equilibrium real exchange rate and use vector error correction model in order to achieve short time relations and loading factors. After calculating real exchange rate from long-run estimated equation, misalignment could be calculated from the difference between real exchange rate and estimated equilibrium real exchange rate. As in most years in Iran exchange rates overvalued, when we calculate misalignment and use it for estimating economic growth model, the sign of misalignment was negative and therefore had negative impact on economic growth.

This paper proceeds to assess the effectiveness of real exchange rate variations on investment of eight industry sub-sections of Iran during 1971-2000. To do this, a flexible acceleration-base investment model was used. In this model, the level of desired capital stock, and accordingly, investment determined by valve added, imports of capital goods, exchange rate premium and real exchange rate variables were taken into account. In view of the fact that the exchange rate affects investment through two cost channels, the revenue results showed a double effect on investment of different industries. The direction of this effect is related to the characteristics and structures of industries under consideration.