جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « Auto Regressive Distributed Lag model » در نشریات گروه « علوم انسانی »

The Effect of Liquidity on Private Investment in the Urban Housing Market in IranAbstractThe housing market, as a major economic sector, has an important role in the country's economy. Regarding the structure of the country's economy and also considering the characteristics of housing as a commodity, housing prices are always affected by fluctuations and surplusThe housing market is one of the important channels for the impact of monetary policy on the country's economy. Therefore, considering the importance of the issue in the present article, in order to study the effects of liquidity on private sector investment in the housing sector during the period 1990- 2021 a Auto regressive distributed lag model has been used. Also a model of error correction is used for studding of short-term dynamics and their relation with long-term dynamics is presented. In general, the results of the study show that the effects of variables on national income, liquidity, housing loan facilities, construction services price index with a one-year break and population with a one-year break and on private sector investment in urban housing are positive and significant. But the impact of housing price variables and the average return of parallel markets on private sector investment in the urban housing market are negativeand significant. As a result, considering the main positive and significant independent effect of the research, namely liquidity on private sector investment in Iran's urban housing market, it can be said that increasing liquidity increases people's purchasing power and consequently increases demand and thus encourages the private sector. There will be more investment in the housing sector.Keywords: Urban Housing Market, Private Sector Investment, Liquidity, Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model. 

The housing market, as a major economic sector, has an important role in the country's economy, and due to its past and present relations, it is strongly affected by its economic fluctuations. Due to the structure of the country's economy and also due to the characteristics of housing as a capital commodity, housing prices are always affected by fluctuations and excess liquidity movements in society and periodically, face a jumping increase. The housing market is one of the important channels for the impact of monetary policy on the country's economy. Due to the intermittent increase in housing prices in Iran, especially in the years after the imposed war and the intermittent creation of housing price bubbles and the stagnation after the bursting of the housing price bubble, it has been suggested that intermittent increases in housing prices are due to Is the country. Liquidity from monetary policies in the economy has undeniable effects on private sector investment in the sector. In this regard, the hypotheses of the leading research are as follows:
Liquidity affects private sector investment in the Iranian urban housing market.
National income affects private sector investment in Iran's urban housing market.
Construction services price index has an impact on private sector investment in Iran's urban housing market.
Urban population affects private sector investment in Iran's urban housing market.
Urban housing prices affect private sector investment in Iran's urban housing market.
Housing purchase facilities have an impact on private sector investment in Iran's urban housing market.
The average return of parallel markets has an impact on private sector investment in Iran's urban housing market.

This research is applied in terms of purpose. Leading research is also regression in terms of type of analysis. Multivariate linear regression models and microfiche software were used to analyze the data. In this research, documentary method has been used to collect information related to the literature and research background. Considering the importance of the issue the impact of liquidity on private sector investment in the housing sector during the period 1990- 2021 a Auto regressive distributed lag model has been used. In addition, we use the ECM to investigate short-term dynamics and relate them to the long-run relationship presented by summative regression, and also to examine how to adjust short-term dynamics for long-run equilibrium.For estimation, a Auto regressive distributed lag is used using Microfit software and in estimation, all possible interrupts of the final model with SBC are selected by the software.It is worth mentioning that the data and information related to the model have been extracted from the database of the Central Bank and the Statistics Center of Iran.

The results of estimating the Auto regressive distributed lag model show that all variables except private sector investment which is significant at the level of 10%, all are significant at the level of 5% and the variable of construction services price index with one year interval at the level 1% is significant. Liquidity, population with a one-year break, as well as construction services price index with a one-year break and national income are directly related to private sector investment. But the population in the first year shows negative relationships.According to the table of critical values of Benarji, Dolado and Master statistics at the level of 95% significance, since the value of computational statistics (-6/5549) is more than the absolute statistics of the table (3/55), so the null hypothesis of no The existence of a long-term relationship between the research variables is rejected and we conclude that there is a long-term relationship between them.According to the results, it can be seen that all variables in the long run are significant at the level of 5% and 1% and except for the urban population variable, other variables have a positive effect on private sector investment in housing.Also, according to the obtained results, ECM shows the adjustment of short-term dynamics in the direction of long-term equilibrium relationships. Also, according to the estimated results of the error correction model, if the shock causes the variables to deviate from the initial short-term equilibrium, in each period about 77% of the short-term imbalance is corrected to the long-term equilibrium. Based on the estimated results, it can be seen that the CUSUM and CUSUMQ charts are located between the two critical lines at the level of 5%. Based on these results, the coefficients of the variables are stable during the period under study.

The results of research estimates show that all independent variables have a significant relationship with the dependent variable, namely private sector investment. National income, liquidity and the price index of construction services with a one-year break are directly related to private sector investment in urban housing.It should be noted that increasing liquidity will increase people's purchasing power and consequently increase demand and thus encourage the private sector to invest more in the housing sector. Apart from the fact that increasing demand can lead to rising prices or any other changes in other macroeconomic variables.Regarding liquidity, it is important to mention that in most developing countries, including Iran, due to the lack of financial markets (money and capital) and appropriate areas of activity, liquidity is directed to the housing sector or quick-return activities.Suggestions in the scope of the discussions and the results of the present article estimates can also be mentioned as follows:1- Supporting the private sector in more investments in the housing sector, by giving various credits and privileges.
2- Targeting liquidity that, along with the housing sector, also leads to the mobilization of production activities, ie leads to a balance in the supply and demand market.
3- Supporting different sections of society, especially low-income people, by providing bank loans to support private sector investment in the housing sector. Investors are forced to withdraw their capital from the housing sector due to recession and lack of purchasing power. Do not do unnecessary activities and even the outflow of capital from the country.
4- Injecting the necessary liquidity in different sectors of the economy Due to the consequences such as inflation, it should be noted that the necessary liquidity for the injection can be provided in various ways that must be used carefully in the use of these resources.
5- Prosperity and activation of financial and capital markets, so that in addition to preventing capital outflows abroad, it can be directed.

Since Women are the foundation of economic development in any society, nowadays the world is more focused on their role in economic activity. Therefore, considering women as an active and constructive sector will certainly have a great impact on the development and increase of human resources in that society in terms of quality and quantity. The participation rate of women in Syria, like many countries in the Middle East, is lower than developed countries and even some developing countries. In this study, the effects of education, fertility rate, school enrollment rate, and migration rate on the rate of female labor force participation in the Syrian economy during the period 2000-2019 have been studied by using the auto-regressive distributed lag model. The results indicate that the variables of education and migration rate (where men make up most of the migrants) have a positive and significant effect on women's economic participation rate. However, fertility rate and school enrollment rate have a negative effect on Syrian women's economic participation.

In this study, the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on abnormal returns of companies listed on the Stock Exchange were studied. In this study, Auto Regressive Distributed Lag model due to its ability to explain this connection was used for short-term and long-term. To evaluate the effect of exchange rate fluctuations , the banks' legal deposit at the central bank, GDP, inflation, current account and capital account on the stock market according to the designated filters, exporting companies that gained the research conditions, were determined. In this study, the company's export price index was calculated at the end of each quarter and abnormal returns were calculated for the group of companies. After calculating abnormal returns of firms, independent and control variables in the ARDL model imported and the effects of the explanatory variables investigation revealed abnormal returns. The results show that the exchange rate fluctuations variable has a positive and significant impact on exporting companies are abnormal returns.

An effort to improve the economic situation based on a resistive economy can lead to an increase in the national production and the localization of industrial and modern technology. In this study, based on the general policies of resistive economy and the important variables in achieving a resistive economy, a model including the variables of the share of gross capital formation from GDP, the ratio of active population to total population, patents, the share of sum exports and imports of goods and services from GDP, share of government expenditures on education from GDP, and the official exchange rate was selected and the effect of these variables on the resistive economy and GDP is evaluated by using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag method (ARDL) based on time series data (1973-2014). The results indicate that, in the long-term, the share of gross capital formation of GDP and the ratio of active population to the total population have been the most important determinants of GDP growth in Iran. Therefore, to achieve resistive economy and pursuant to paragraphs 1, 3, 9, 10 and 20 of the general resistive economy policies, it is necessary to facilitate coordination and adjustment between the financial-monetary system, and also production and the country's foreign policy. Also, officials should consider reforming the country's educational system in order to foster creative and innovative labor where arrangements can be tailored to meet labor market needs.