جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « Causality Test » در نشریات گروه « علوم انسانی »

In recent decades, due to environmental pollution and the depletion of fossil fuel resources, the consumption of renewable energy sources has been increasing relative to non-renewable ones in many countries. The objective of this paper is to vigorously examine the impact of fossil and renewable energy consumption on economic growth and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, with a specific focus on oil-producing and non-oil-producing nations. In this research, 20 developing countries, including 10 oil-exporting nations and 10 non-oil-producing ones, were examined from 2000 to 2019 using panel data analysis, dynamic ordinary least squares, and Granger causality tests. The estimation results show that a 1 percent increase in renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, leads to an increase of 0.32 and 0.007 percent of GDP in oil-producing and 0.169 and 0.188 percent in non-oil-producing countries respectively. On the other hand, increased consumption of fossil fuels in oil-producing countries corresponds to an increase in carbon dioxide emissions, while the utilization of renewable energy sources in these countries leads to a decrease in CO2 emissions. Conversely, in non-oil-producing countries, an increase in the consumption of non-renewable energy sources is associated with elevated carbon dioxide emissions, while the incorporation of renewable energy sources leads to a reduction in CO2 emissions. The research results emphasize that endeavors to stimulate economic growth are accompanied by heightened carbon emissions and environmental degradation. Additionally, the findings highlight the significant role of renewable energy sources in controlling carbon dioxide emissions in both oil-rich and non-oil countries.Based on the results, a one percent increase in renewable and non-renewable energy consumption in both groups of countries leads to an increase in GDP. As an increase in fossil energy consumption in oil-producing countries rises the emission of carbon dioxide, and the use of renewable energy in this group of countries reduces the emission of carbon dioxide. In non-oil countries, the increase in the consumption of non-renewable energy rises the emission of carbon dioxide. Also, the consumption of renewable energy in this group of countries reduces the emission of carbon dioxide. The results of the present study show that in the studied countries, efforts to strengthen economic growth lead to increased carbon emissions and environmental degradation. The findings also indicate the positive effect of non-renewable energy sources on carbon dioxide emissions in both groups of oil-rich and non-oil countries and the positive effect of renewable sources on controlling carbon dioxide emissions.

In recent years, Iran's economy has experienced stagflation, low inflation rates or low unemployment rates at the cost of a considerable increase in the other. Government seeks to find ways to repress and manipulate markets to lower its debt financing costs. In this field, financial repression will provide very important policy implications for Iran's economy, which will make it possible for the country's macroeconomic policymakers to target inflation and unemployment rates. Based on this, this paper investigates the effect of financial repression on the causal relationship between inflation and unemployment using the bivariate and multivariate Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) between inflation and unemployment, taking into account the financial repression index (exchange rate and interest rate) in the period from 1987 to 2020. The findings show that despite the existence of a strong long-term two-way causal relationship between inflation and unemployment in the bivariate causality test, there is no significant causal relationship between inflation and unemployment in Iran in the presence of the indicators of financial repression. These findings indicate the absence of inflation-unemployment trade-off in Iran and support that this trade-off is not behavioral and is completely influenced by the government's interventions in the economy.

Achieving sustainable economic growth requires a lot of investment in infrastructure to increase production capacity and revenue. These investments include not only physical investment, but also human investment, research and innovation, education, health and labor migration. Thus, one of the most important factors affecting economic growth, in addition to labor and physical capital, is human capital.This article examines the causal relationship between education, health, and economic growth in 12 developing countries during 1983 - 2020. For this purpose, using Granger's causality method for panel data, the causality relationship between these three variables is examined in the short -run. In order to estimate the long-run relationship, Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) method is also used. The results indicate that in the long-run, there is a two-way causal relationship between the economic growth index and the health index, as well as a two-way causal relationship between the health index and the education index. However, there was no causal relationship between education and economic growth in the long- run, although in the short -run there was only one causal relationship between economic growth and the education index.

The Covid-19 pandemic has well illustrated the extent to which the health crisis can negatively affect the economic activities of oil-exporting countries. Empirical evidence confirms that global oil prices and global demand for this commodity are the two key channels of the disease's impact on the economies of such countries. Given the high importance of this issue, this study examines the effects of this disease on US oil demand (as an indicator of world oil demand) and the West Texas price index (as an indicator of world oil prices), based on weekly data from June 14, 2019 to May 15, 2020. For this purpose, an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) has been used, and thus the impact of Covid-19 on oil demand and the oil price index in both short-term and long-term has been studied. According to the findings of this study, Covid-19 had a negative and significant effect both in the long run and in the short run on the global oil price index and global oil demand. Also, regard to the results of the causality test based on the VECM model, a strong long-term causality from the global oil price index to the Iranian oil price has been confirmed. Therefore, it can be argued that Covid-19 has a strong negative impact on Iran's crude oil price index throughout affecting global crude oil price in the long run. Therefore, in order to avoid budget deficits and hyperinflation in Iran, oil-independent budget should be seriously considered by policy makers.

Bank interest rates are one of the most important monetary tools in the economy that managed by monetary authorities can stimulate real economic downturn. In countries such as Iran, because of the inefficiency of the banking system, interest rates paid to low-income depositors are high but some interest-holders have high interest rates. By reducing the interest rate gap of bank accounts, the cost of finished goods and services decreases, and secondly, investment and thus production increases, both of which lead to lower inflation and provide stable employment. To this end, the causal relationship was first determined using causality-Granger causality test and the relation between deposit facility rate and inflation rate was determined and the functional form of the relationship between these variables was finally finalized in the self-explanatory model with the intervals. Extended (ARDL) for the period 1977-1977 Estimation of the causality-granger test results showed that there is a one-way causality relationship between inflation rate and deposit facility gap. Results showed inflation rate variables, legal deposit ratio, exchange rate changes and land price index. In the short and long term, the positive effect on the deposit facility gap is positive, and M. They are rich

Dominant economic theory assumes a positive relationship between financial development and economic growth. Contradictorily some empirical evidence shows that the strength of this relation and even its sign heavily depends on economic circumstances of each country. One of the most important determinants of finance-growth nexus is inflation. Specially, in many developing countries which have been experienced higher inflation and poor macroeconomic stability, studying the role of inflation on finance-growth nexus is crucial. This paper tests tri-variate causality among economic growth, financial development and inflation rate in Iran during 1961 to 2016 by using VECM model. Comparing two-variate and tri-variate causality tests reveals that adverse causality from growth to some financial development indicators is caused by high rates of inflation. Moreover, high stable inflation in Iran weakens the causality from some other financial development indicators to economic growth.

Based on theoretical points, structural changes are able to affect macroeconomic variables such as public finance variables significantly, and simultaneously take effect from those variables. This hypothesis is probably not true among all economies, necessarily. Therefore, this paper using Granger causality test investigates the relationship between economic structural changes and tax composition changes among several countries, which grouped based on level of their income. The results show that, there was one way causality between above variables during 1980-2013 and in the context of all stages of structural changes, either based on employment index (Lilien Index) or value added index (Stoikov Index), it was just one way causality effect from structural changes on tax composition changes index and opposite line wasnt true. Although, the effect of employment index has not seen immediately but after some lags, its effect reveals. The findings have considerable implications on tax policy making in Iran's economy.

Nowadays, the entrepreneurship is the least necessity needed for a country to increase its ability to compete effectively with other countries. Along with globalization, all the countries in order to have an effective competition should move forward to the new technologies and innovation. In this regard the Vector auto-regressive (VAR) with the help of (Eviews8) software was used. To investigate the causal relationship between the variables, the parallel Granger causality test was used. The obtained results showed that there was a causal relationship between the labor Force productivity and entrepreneurship. The result of stimulation reaction indicated that the variables have the most effects on their past values. At the end of shock period, the most effect was on net capital and entrepreneurship logarithms respectively. The results of variance analysis of prediction error also showed that the fluctuations of entrepreneurship in the short term are mainly as high as 99.5 percent. Then in the fifth period, the share of the remaining variables reaches about 42 percent and the logarithm of net capital and logarithm of labor productivity respectively have the highest and the lowest shares in explaining this variable.

In this study, using time series analysis, the long-run relationship between human capital dimensions (education and health) and total factor productivity of production in Iran’s economy is estimated during 1978 to 2010. Along with human capital indicators, other variables such as accumulation of domestic R&D capital and capital stock per workers are used as control variables. Cointegration analysis with estimating Unrestricted Error Correction Model (UECM) based on Bounds Test is performed. The Long-run and short-run coefficients, using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method, are estimated. The results confirm that the human capital indicators and capital stock per workers have significant and positive effect on the productivity level. The results of Granger-causality test based on Error Correction Model (ECM), show that there exist a bi-directional causal relation between the human capital (education) and total factor productivity of production in the long-run.

One century has passed since the explanation of relationship between financial development and economic growth by Schumpeter. However, there are serious debates among economists in this regard. Especially, the causality relationship between economic growth and financial development, in most of the cases, the causality from economic growth to financial development is confirmed in different countries. One of the neglected issues in this field is to consider the infrastructures, which can play important roles in the effectiveness of financial development on economic growth.One pillar of the financial development is the quality of banking financial services, which to a great extent is influenced by ownership and intervention of government in banking system. This paper, by using VECM model, tests the tri-variate causality among economic growthand financial development in the presence of public ownership of banks index during 1980 to 2010. The results show that in contrast to the bi-variate causality tests, which indicate the adverse causality from economic growth to financial development, the tri-variate causality tests reject this claim except for the case of the commercial banks’ assets.

Financing sources of investment has relationship with economic growth, so that the Finance resources and investment theories, investment and financial sources have been introduced of the most important condition for economic growth, while the theories of economic growth main reason for the investment and financial sources are economic growth. This study examines causality between sources of investment potential finance and economic growth during the period 1990-2011 for three countries Iran, Turkey and Malaysia, by using the Toda and Phillips methods and adjusted Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model. Paper results indicate that: in some cases, domestic savings due to economic growth and in other cases, economic growth due to domestic savings. Long-term loans, FDI, public guaranteed debit due to economic growth in Iran. Short-term loans and foreign capital are causes of economic growth in Turkey. Short-term loans and Public guaranteed loans are causes of economic growth in Malaysia.

There are many studies on the effects of oil price shocks on Stock Market in Oil Importing countries such as the USA, Japan and the EU countries yet there in oil Exporting Countries the studies are limited. This paper investigates relation among oil price and stock market behavior in seven oil exporting countries. The research aim is filling the gaps of theoretical research in this area about energy economics in the point of econometrics method, macro sampling with the attention to oil exporting countries. The results confirm the existence of a positive effect of oil price changes on stock market in Iran. So causality test in Countries such as Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, having some commonalities such as the financial budget reliance on oil and economic structures are quite similar, confirming the causal positive relationship for oil price volatility on stock market returns.

Tourism has high potential to create foreign exchange and to increase employment and, thus, can play a crucial role in economic growth of all countries. In this paper, thus, it is tried to examine the relationship between tourism and economic growth of Iran and countries in the MENA region. Considering the very specific natural, historical, religious and cultural attractions of Iran and countries in the MENA, the main objective of this study is to examine the causal relationship between tourism and economic growth of Iran and MENA during the period of 1995-2012. For this purpose, The VAR method in the context of panel data and the Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test are used. The results show that there is a positive and significant relationship between economic growth and tourism activities in Iran and the MENA region. Thus, it is suggested that Iran and MENA countries provide the necessary conditions for economic growth by investing in leading industries and infrastructure to improve tourism industry.

The relationship between real and financial sector have focused the attention of many previous studies. Although there is an approximate consensus among economists about the positive effect of financial development on economic growth, the causality between these two is still challenging. In addition, in most studies the finance-growth nexus has been discussed without considering the effective environmental factors. Hence, a few studies had investigated the effect on financial markets performance. By studying the effect of oil revenues on causal relationship between financial development and economic growth, the present article attempts to offer an answer to the distinct in finance-growth causality between resource-based developing countries and production-oriented developed economies. This paper considers the ratio of oil revenues as a share of total government revenues in Iran during 1352 to 1389. It tests tri-variate causality between economic growth and some indicators of financial development in the presence of inflation rate during 1352 to 1389 by using VECM model and also multilateral index of financial development which derive from principle component analysis. The findings indicate that in contrast with the results of bi-variate causality tests which indicate the adverse causality from growth to finance, the results on tri-variate causality tests in the presence of high inflation rates reject this passive effect in some cases of financial development indexes and this one-way causal relation become weaken in the case of others.

This paper examines the role of insurance industry in the economic growth of Iran, by using a hypothetical extraction method (HEM). To estimate the causality relationship(Toda and Yamoto Test), the time series analysis for (1967-2007) period Input-Output tables of 1986 and 2001 are used. The results show the existence of a one way relationship from insurance to economic growth, but only for non-life insurance. However, no relationship is observed for life insurance. This finding indicates the insignificant role of insurance sector in Iran’s economic growth.

MA in Economics, Expert in Securities and Exchange OrganizationTo be acquainted with the relation between deferent markets which are presently considered as the investment opportunities of the national economy provides the policymakers of the stock exchange with material information for making decisions to maintain liquidity and consistency of these markets. Concerning the liquidity level of each asset in national economy, one may regard the stocks, foreign exchange and gold markets in a same order and examine the sensitivity of such markets to each other's return movements. This has been examined and also upon two deferent regressive models (Simple Regressive and Vector Autoregressive Models), and by using seasonal data, the foreign exchange rate behavior (Dollar) in official and non-official markets and also the gold coin price against the percentage of TSE index movements have been examined. According to the results of this estimation, although the static relation between the foreign exchange and stock markets is positive, the VAR model shows that the capital gain in stock market has a negative and significant relation with foreign exchange rate movements in non-official market during last season. This stipulates that having a fixed liquidity growth, the positive changes in foreign exchange rate, in short term, and may absorb the stock market liquidity because the growth in foreign exchange rate may result in capital gain decrease in the stock market.