جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « The Budget Deficit » در نشریات گروه « علوم انسانی »

In this research, the effect of central bank sanctions on the accumulation of financial capital of the private sector will be investigated in the framework of a Post-Keynesian model of SFC. The reason for using this model is the suitability of the post-Keynesian approach to the research topic. Post-Keynesian market economics states that if the social is to be realized automatically, the government must step in as a market firm that aims or changes the outcome in a desirable way, with minimal interventionist policies, to achieve social action. Post-Keynesians are against the role of the government in the economy and believe that the markets need the support of the government in order to manage the management. In this research, macroeconomic modeling was done with an accounting approach. This approach gained popularity after the Great Financial Crisis of 2007, which brought macroeconomic problems to many developed countries. The matching model used in this research provides the possibility of connecting the real and financial aspects of the economy in a coherent and integrated framework, which is an important advantage of these models compared to the common classical models. The research model is made in such a way that it records the changes made in the whole system when one of the parameters is modified by changing the behavior of each of the parts involved in the model. This feature allows the model to reflect the consequences of fiscal or monetary policy as well as exogenous shocks such as sanctions and shows how the balance sheets of individual sectors are interdependent .First, the model is estimated using the data of Iran's economy for the period 2010-2015, and then this model is simulated to create a basic scenario for the period 2001-2011, based on which the shock effects of the central bank sanctions in three scenarios, weak sanctions (in which 80% of foreign exchange resources return to the country), moderate sanctions (in which 50% of foreign exchange resources return to the country) and strick sanctions (in which only 20% of foreign exchange resources return to the country) for a period of 50 It has been simulated and analyzed. The results of the research show that sanctioning the central bank and restricting its access to foreign exchange resources resulting from the trade surplus can have adverse effects on other sectors of the economy in addition to the central bank itself. Sanctioning the central bank will reduce the accumulation of financial capital of the private sector, which can disrupt the economic production by reducing the resources necessary for private sector investment and create the grounds for the economy to enter recession. Also, the extent of this effect depends on the severity of the sanctions, and with the tightening of the sanctions, the accumulation of financial capital of the private sector is more affected. If the sanctions are permanent, it will cause the financial capital of the private sector to reach its stable state after a few years of reduction (depending on the severity of the sanctions), at a lower level than before. The thing to think about is that the more severe the sanction, in addition to a sharper decrease in the financial capital variable, it will take much longer for the variable to reach a stable state. This time will be about 10 years for a weak permanent embargo, about 15 years for a medium permanent embargo, and about 20 years for a severe permanent embargo. According to the post-Keynesian theories, the duty of the government is to intervene in the economy and prevent the formation of recession. In this regard, the effect of the two expansionary financial policies of increasing government spending and reducing taxes that the government can do is to prevent the reduction of financial capital accumulation. The private sector was investigated. The results of the research showed that these policies have a positive effect on the accumulation of financial capital of the private sector and Yolet can reduce the severity of the negative effects of sanctions on the accumulation of financial capital of the private sector by applying them. This means that if the government wants to prevent the reduction of the accumulation of financial capital of the private sector due to the sanctions of the central bank, it has to impose a budget deficit on itself. It is clear that the government's budget deficit has consequences for Iran's economy. Whether the government's intervention in the economy is the right thing to do in this situation or not, it needs further study and examination and comparison of the negative consequences of the government's budget deficit and the decrease in the accumulation of private sector financial capital in Iran's economy. But what emerges from the results of the research is that the sanction of the Central Bank has harmful effects and consequences on the Iranian economy and affects all sectors of the economy.

Financial rules can prevent budget fluctuations by regularizing the financial relations of the public sector. This research analyzes four financial rules in the framework of the Stock-Flow Consistent model. These rules are government spending as a constant ratio of GDP, government budget deficit as a constant ratio of GDP, government debt as a constant ratio of GDP, and a balanced budget. The simulation results of the research model for 50 years (2011-2061) show that the choice of financial rule can differ depending on the government's goals, the desired time horizon, and the economic conditions. Among the examined rules, government spending as a fixed ratio of GDP is optimal in the condition of oil sanctions, since it reduces the negative effects of oil sanctions on the selected macroeconomic variables of the model. Considering the importance of choosing a financial rule in accordance with changing economic conditions, such as an oil sanction, it is suggested that the rules should be designed considering the requirements of the country's economy and the goals of the policymaker, and get revised with changes in economic conditions or changes in the priority of goals.

Due to the historical importance of inflation in the Iranian economy and its serious effects on the society, the present study has explored the impacts of international sanctions and other effective factors on the inflation rate in Iran during 1981-2014. To this end, this paper has specified an econometric model of inflation rate, which has been estimated by the ARDL method using relevant time series data including the above period. The empirical results obtained indicate that the international sanctions have had direct and significant effects on the inflation rate through changes in exchange rate and budget deficit. Additionally, exchange rate, money liquidity and deposit interest rate have had positive and significant effects on the inflation rate, while oil revenues and tax earnings have influenced indirectly and significantly Iran’s inflation rate over the period.

An evaluation of the foreign exchange market in Iran implies that the fluctuations in exchange rate there have been considerably influenced by the political factors such as imposing international sanctions. Such effect has been arising particularly from fluctuations in oil revenues. Accordingly, this study has explored the effect of mutual sanctions imposed mostly in 2012 on Iran’s exchange market through its cross effects on oil exports and government budget deficit and then, impacts of the sanctions before 2012 is also evaluated. To this end, the paper has employed the ARDL method to this exploration using relevant time series data from 1980 to 2014. The obtained results indicate that the sanctions imposed before 2012 have exerted directly a weak effect on the exchange rate while they have affected volatilities of exchange rate more strongly after 2012. In addition, oil export earnings and unified currency regime have positive and significant effects on exchange rate; furthermore, consumer price index and gross domestic product have also had direct and significant effects on the exchange rate.

The main objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between budget deficits, inflation and money supply growth rate in Iran as one of the most important subjects in macroeconomics. In many countries, the budget deficit policy is used as one of the tools of financial policy. The relationship between the government budget deficit and the macroeconomic variables is somewhat ambiguous. All data related to inflation, budget deficit and money supply growth rate have been collected from the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Iranian Statistical Center. Econometric methods including stability test, White, Johansson and vector regression test (VAR) were used to examine the hypothesis. The results of the present study show a positive and significant relationship between budget deficit, inflation and money supply growth that confirms the hypotheses of the study.

The structural budget deficit is one of the most important problems of developing countries. They borrow from the banking system, the private sector or outside world to finance this deficit. This approach can have different effects on the economy with regard to the composition and structure of debt and economic conditions of countries. The present study investigated the short-run and long-run effects of government debt on economic growth of Iran using ARDL in the period of 1975 to 2013.
Results showed that the ratio of government debt to GDP has a negative impact on economic growth. This impact on economic growth model based on oil revenues is more than the model based on non-oil GDP, also that in long run more than short term. Also results indicated the importance of physical capital is remarkable in both models in the short-term and long-term, but the human capital is significant only in non-oil growth pattern.

In this study، to find the relationship between the government budget deficit and trade balance in Iran، a structural macro-econometric model is set up. In the model، government consumption expenditure increased by 20 percent annually during 2001-2010، so the government budget deficit increased relative to the baseline. The financing methods of budget deficit and relevant effects on trade balance were analyzed in 4 options. The results indicate that government budget deficit increases by adopting expansionary fiscal policy in all options. If the budget deficit is financed by borrowing from the central bank (the first option)، it will raise the monetary base and finally worsen the trade balance and non-oil trade balance compared to the baseline. If the budget deficit is financed by selling participation bonds to the public (the second option)، it will reduce aggregate demand and finally improve the trade balance and non-oil trade balance compared to the baseline. If direct taxes and government spending are increased by the same amount (the third option)، private consumption will decrease; and trade balance and non-oil trade balance will be deteriorated compared to the baseline. Finally، if the budget deficit is financed by the withdrawal of foreign currency reserves (the fourth option)، oil revenues will increase، as a result the trade balance will be improved and the non-oil trade balance will be exacerbated compared to the baseline.